BrownsBoard predicts...Republican Nominee
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I just go with the odds I guess. Looks like Trump vs. Hillary and right now the polls look like Hillary but it's really really early and she's really really distasteful. We've had a Non-Stop diet of Trump hate from the media , and seems there has to be a saturation Point somewhere?
And I'd have to guess that sooner or later the stop Trump gang has to put on their glasses and realized they don't like Ted Cruz either.
WSS
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Yeah I am just following the numbers. Trump has the numbers.
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Trump needs to win about 500 of the 888 remaining delegates, about 55%. I'm guessing he ends up with the most delegates obviously, but will he end up with enough to avoid a screw job brokered convention? And in said convention, would he be the one chosen? I'm not sure, I think not on both counts.
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Vince mcmahon will obviously be in attendance for the Cleveland screwjob where the wwe title ,no scratch that, republican nomination will be handed to Paul Ryan as Shawn Michaels is already retired
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Ah, the montreal screwjob. You don't get storylines like that anymore apparently. And kayfabe is gone as well I understand?!
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Trump has the numbers and will most likely have the most delegates going into the convention. He won't have the 1237 though and might have some big problems after the first ballot when most of the delegates are free to vote for whomever they want at that point. Trump has ran a scorched earth personal attack campaign and this may be where all his personal attacks come back to bite him. Rubio and Kasich could release their delegates to vote for Cruz. Cruz has run a smarter ground game from the start by knowing the rules and has been working on the delegates from the beginning where it seems like Trump is just now beginning to learn the rules. Trump can whine about losing delegates to Cruz but the fact is Cruz worked harder and smarter than Trump and got the best of him.
Trump's best bet is to get as close as he can to 1237 and win on the first ballot which may happen as well.
Conclusion: Trump needs to win on the first ballot and if it goes to multiple ballots it looks better for Cruz.
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After Trump wins California he'll have the 1237, might even before then.
He's going to dominate NY and the other NE states - Cruz probably regrets insulting New Yorkers about now.
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After Trump wins California he'll have the 1237, might even before then.
He's going to dominate NY and the other NE states - Cruz probably regrets insulting New Yorkers about now.
After Trump wins California he'll have the 1237, might even before then.
He's going to dominate NY and the other NE states - Cruz probably regrets insulting New Yorkers about now.
When Cruz spoke about Trump's New York values (something that Trump himself claims about himself) Cruz was talking about a NY governor who all but said if you are pro life you are not welcome in New York and is anti second amendment and a gun banner, a liberal NY city mayor where many of his own police officers turned their back on him for not supporting his own PD.
Fox crunched the numbers on Trump last night and his best case scenario at this time has him falling short of 1237. Of course all that can change.
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After Trump wins California he'll have the 1237, might even before then.
He's going to dominate NY and the other NE states - Cruz probably regrets insulting New Yorkers about now.
When Cruz spoke about Trump's New York values (something that Trump himself claims about himself) Cruz was talking about a NY governor who all but said if you are pro life you are not welcome in New York and is anti second amendment and a gun banner, a liberal NY city mayor where many of his own police officers turned their back on him for not supporting his own PD.
Fox crunched the numbers on Trump last night and his best case scenario at this time has him falling short of 1237. Of course all that can change.
When Cruz spoke about Trump's New York values (something that Trump himself claims about himself) Cruz was talking about a NY governor who all but said if you are pro life you are not welcome in New York and is anti second amendment and a gun banner, a liberal NY city mayor where many of his own police officers turned their back on him for not supporting his own PD.
Fox crunched the numbers on Trump last night and his best case scenario at this time has him falling short of 1237. Of course all that can change.
He's still ahead of schedule for 1237 according to 538. He's also not going to get 0 unpledged first ballot delegates - he'll get some. So even if he's close to 1237 he'll get the nomination.
Some delegates have come out and said they'll vote based on how the people voted.
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To be honest I'm surprised Trump isn't further ahead based on results of the popular votes. But then, states apparently award delegates pretty much en masse, meaning that where Teddy's scraped a win, he's picked up hundreds of votes.
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Kind of funny watching Kasich mock Trump for whining about Kasich "taking his votes" and John saying I thought we were out of the sandbox. Trump is right for once as Kasich could keep Trump's numbers down in the north east. If Trump wins New York with over 50 percent he would get all the delegates but if he comes under 50 percent they will get apportioned. Kasich may just cost Trump in that there are going to be a number of people who don't like Trump or Cruz who now have a third option with Kasich. My bet is in the north east Kasich in the race hurts Trump more than Cruz.
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If Trump wins California and Pennsylvania, he'll most likely reach 1237. If he loses either of those two, we're going to a contested convention. Latest polls make it look like PA is locked up, so all eyes on CA.
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Trump.
Cruz has a frozen bird beak face.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
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Cruz be crazy. Kasich is living a pipe dream. Trump 2016. If they go against who the people want (voted for in the majority) they will lose.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
Except the people haven't voted for him in the majority. Normally it's in the 30-40% range, with cruz not very far behind. Meaning, the majority of people don't want Trump (also don't want Cruz). This is why an alternative vote system would work well in primaries - I'm guessing most people who voted Cruz were voting 'anyone but trump' while most people who voted trump were voting 'trump please'.
You have a grasp of American politics better than most Americans. I think that is an accurate assessment. If you are opposed to Trump you are down to two choices with either Kasish or Cruz with most seeing Cruz as the better option because he was won more states than Kasich who has only won his home state. Trump has a base of support who will support him no matter what and even Trump said himself he could kill someone on the street and they would still support him. It was always argued Trump benefited from a large field of candidates. There are states Trump may not have won if the field wasn't crowded and in Wisconsin when the field is down to three Trump gets blown out.
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Trump won MA with like 50% of the vote and 5 competitors. He's going to win PA, NY, CT, RI, and so on and so on.
But the argument that "well only 50% voted for him so 50% are against him" is completely re-tarded, because you could say that about every single election that's ever taken place.
Also:
- Kasich isn't a good option because he's mathematically eliminated and also can't win a contested convention unless he wins 7 more states.
- Trump is still on track for 1237, will finish around 1300 if he keeps pace
- Cruz is basically mathematically eliminated, he will be when NY and PA seal the deal in a couple weeks.
- The majority of unpledged first ballot delegates are going to vote for the person who won the most pledged delegates, which will be Trump. If he's short of 1237 but still close to 1200 he will still win the nomination on the first ballot - which will not lead to a contested convention. Trump's campaign is not sitting idly by, they are actively working in the delegate selection process.
Trump has to do very, very poorly the rest of the way to have any shot at a contested convention, it's not going to happen - no matter what the talking heads on Fox and CNN have to say about it, they are dishonest and only want to push the story. Fox and Murdoch are very anti-Trump, too.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others. The map favors Trump in a few weeks in the north east but then it goes back and forth for a while until California which will probably make or break it. It will be interesting to see how Kasich does in Pennsylvania and the north east where he might even beat Cruz but that doesn't hurt Cruz as much as it hurts Trump and in fact will help Cruz by holding down delegates Trump would probably get if Kasich was not in the race.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others. The map favors Trump in a few weeks in the north east but then it goes back and forth for a while until California which will probably make or break it. It will be interesting to see how Kasich does in Pennsylvania and the north east where he might even beat Cruz but that doesn't hurt Cruz as much as it hurts Trump and in fact will help Cruz by holding down delegates Trump would probably get if Kasich was not in the race.
It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
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It is more like only a third of the electorate have supported Trump thus far with two thirds voting for others.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
Ok, if Trump was running by himself then that would mean he'd get nearly 100% of the vote so everybody likes him then right? Since if he gets 40% that means 60% hate him and would never vote for him.
Similar to the thought policing manipulation polls that you have fallen for, like:
- 1 on 1 Trump beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Cruz beats Kasich easily
- 1 on 1 Kasich beats Clinton by far, but the others lose.
Trump is currently getting more democrats and independents by far than Cruz and Kasich, so I don't buy any of the arguments that defend the manipulation polls.
You have to distinguish between the primary and the general election. Winning the primary is one thing and winning in the general election is something entirely different. There is a reason why candidates go to the right in republican primaries and the democrats go to the left and after the primaries they both run to the center because that is the bulk of the electorate in the general election. Right now those voters have decided Trump is too extreme and want somebody more moderate. They also have found Cruz too extreme but by a lesser extent. Both Cruz and Trump are losing to Clinton in the general with Trump losing by a lot more.
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