Our 2016 Draft Class Game: Find the "Bust"
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More like can't stay healthy with his numerous soft tissue injuries in college where he was constantly missing multiple games here and there throughout his career
Really?! Then how do the Browns keep finding these guys?
Oh yeah. Harvard ("Harass them, harass them, make them relinquish the ball.") Yes, according to my Cornell wife that is a real Havaad cheer. 
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People that gamble say never bet against a streak. Purely judging from past history....they will all be gone 3 years from now..
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More like can't stay healthy with his numerous soft tissue injuries in college where he was constantly missing multiple games here and there throughout his career
Really?! Then how do the Browns keep finding these guys?
Oh yeah. Harvard ("Harass them, harass them, make them relinquish the ball.") Yes, according to my Cornell wife that is a real Havaad cheer. Really?! Then how do the Browns keep finding these guys?
Oh yeah. Harvard ("Harass them, harass them, make them relinquish the ball.") Yes, according to my Cornell wife that is a real Havaad cheer. Well, it must have worked. Harvard beat Cornell for their first loss of the season and now Cornell has lost 3 in a row.
My son's lab literally overlooks the Cornell football field.
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I'm not as high on Nassib as some others are. Can't deny high energy, crazy motor but doesn't seem strong enough. He reminds me of a white Mingo.
Corey Coleman hasn't played enough to weigh in but think he was a reach at 15
I'm not as high on Nassib as some others are. Can't deny high energy, crazy motor but doesn't seem strong enough.
This.
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A 3rd round pick that doesnt pan out is not a bust though is it?
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Ag,
Which of Elways 2011 signings were key to his rebuild? You know the year he started his massive rebuild all the way from a 4-12 team sandwiched between two 8-8 seasons? Which are still with the team?
Other than Von I don't think 2011 (Elway's first year) was the key year to the change other than that was when he began the draft/fa process in earnest. He has used it since that time yearly quite extensively. Starting SB players just on the D besides Von (Draft) were Ware (Dallas), Talib (NE), Ward (OUCH), Wolfe (Draft), Jackson (Draft), Travathan (Draft), Harris Jr. (UFA), Marshall (Jax), Williams (Draft), Stewart (Ravens). So 5 drafted and 5 FA and one UFA on a crushing defense. It took 5 years to become a SB winning D. Of course you can't underestimate the signing of FA Manning in 2012 to jump start the O to go with that D, but D has always been their real key to providing the ball regularly to the O. I've said from day one that this is the key also to a Browns playoff team yearly. But then I am a biased D guy. I think all the great teams start there.
EDIT: And of course last night made Elway look like a genius for letting the $70 Mil man go to Houston while maintaining that crushing D. And what do they have that really makes it go? 2 really great pass rushers disrupting everything along with cover corners.
PS-this is what I want the Browns D to look like within 5 years. Just do what Elway has done and get a really good D coordinator to run it. Hell, steal Elway's!
EDIT: And of course last night made Elway look like a genius for letting the $70 Mil man go to Houston while maintaining that crushing D. And what do they have that really makes it go? 2 really great pass rushers disrupting everything along with cover corners.
PS-this is what I want the Browns D to look like within 5 years. Just do what Elway has done and get a really good D coordinator to run it. Hell, steal Elway's!
I agree but i'm not giving it 5 years. I think the Broncos and Vikings are proving that you can be really really good in this league with a good defense. We have some very raw parts on defense. Next years draft should be all defense with maybe a couple of OL mixed in and lets go play next year.
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And that was one of my points... Elway did nothing significant in his first year in FA... and sonofabitch neither did we. Additionally I'll argue that the depths at which the two franchises started their rebuilds are not similar. So if we are still relatively inactive in the 2017 FA market I will not be surprised.
Starting FAs on the SB
Ware (Dallas 2014), Talib (NE 2014), Ward (OUCH 2014), Harris Jr. (UDFA 2011), Marshall (Jax 2013), Stewart (Ravens 2015).Years and the type of FA are important. The 2014 triplets were all UFAs attracted to a team on the verge of a ring... ditto Stewart. Harris was a UDFA "find". Marshall was cut by JAX and spent nearly all of 2013 on the Broncos' PS... so I'll guess Elway had no clue he'd end up as good as he did.
The point I want to make about your post Tour is- the guys who are shouting, well, we have a ton of cap room- just go out and sign top FAs. Talents like Ware and Talib aren't coming to warm up around the Browns dumpster fire regardless of what we might offer them. They're going to go to teams that at least have playoff, if not SB aspirations. Plus, we've already seen our FO is currently averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. Maybe that will change if we ever get in playoff contention.
The point I want to make about your post Tour is- the guys who are shouting, well, we have a ton of cap room- just go out and sign top FAs. Talents like Ware and Talib aren't coming to warm up around the Browns dumpster fire regardless of what we might offer them. They're going to go to teams that at least have playoff, if not SB aspirations. Plus, we've already seen our FO is currently averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. Maybe that will change if we ever get in playoff contention.
Good point...and at least for me, I agree with the FO being averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. We won 3 damn games with guys like Dansby and Whitner making a shit ton of money. No sense spending it on them when its not going to matter in the long run for the team.
I would really like to see this team build the defense though. Build it through the draft and maybe a FA or two and it can be a defense that can scare people and help the offense as well.
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@ghoolie said:
There isn't one bust in the entire draft. These fuckers are really lighting it up. These are the core of building for the future. This beats anything Chuck Noll ever did.
1974 all over again? We shall see.
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The point I want to make about your post Tour is- the guys who are shouting, well, we have a ton of cap room- just go out and sign top FAs. Talents like Ware and Talib aren't coming to warm up around the Browns dumpster fire regardless of what we might offer them. They're going to go to teams that at least have playoff, if not SB aspirations. Plus, we've already seen our FO is currently averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. Maybe that will change if we ever get in playoff contention.
Good point...and at least for me, I agree with the FO being averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. We won 3 damn games with guys like Dansby and Whitner making a shit ton of money. No sense spending it on them when its not going to matter in the long run for the team.
I would really like to see this team build the defense though. Build it through the draft and maybe a FA or two and it can be a defense that can scare people and help the offense as well.
Page 3 and it takes Ghoolie to come closest to my original position... and I think he was being sarcastic.
I do not think there are any certifiable busts in our 2016 draft class... not as of now, not yet. And that has rarely been the case near the midpoint of our class' rookie year. Hell... we have seldom broken camp without being able to ID one. And there've been years when we have gone to bed draft night wondering WTF our FO was thinking.
That's not to say there are not a couple worthy of being on a watch list. But it's too soon to label them IMO.
And, yes, any draftee can bust. Remember Vince Mayle? A classic, Rnd 4 bust from all the way back in 2015.
Good point...and at least for me, I agree with the FO being averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. We won 3 damn games with guys like Dansby and Whitner making a shit ton of money. No sense spending it on them when its not going to matter in the long run for the team.
I would really like to see this team build the defense though. Build it through the draft and maybe a FA or two and it can be a defense that can scare people and help the offense as well.
Speaking of aging vets with fat wallets... Dwayne Bowe.
Vet sprinkling happens at all stages of builds and on both sides of the ball. That was McC last year and Davis this. Both were more role model recruits than studs.
I just hope when the time comes to add final pieces that we don't fall into the big name trap.
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Page 3 and it takes Ghoolie to come closest to my original position... and I think he was being sarcastic.
I do not think there are any certifiable busts in our 2016 draft class... not as of now, not yet. And that has rarely been the case near the midpoint of our class' rookie year. Hell... we have seldom broken camp without being able to ID one. And there've been years when we have gone to bed draft night wondering WTF our FO was thinking.
That's not to say there are not a couple worthy of being on a watch list. But it's too soon to label them IMO.
And, yes, any draftee can bust. Remember Vince Mayle? A classic, Rnd 4 bust from all the way back in 2015.
Good point...and at least for me, I agree with the FO being averse to ageing vets with fat contracts. We won 3 damn games with guys like Dansby and Whitner making a shit ton of money. No sense spending it on them when its not going to matter in the long run for the team.
I would really like to see this team build the defense though. Build it through the draft and maybe a FA or two and it can be a defense that can scare people and help the offense as well.
Speaking of aging vets with fat wallets... Dwayne Bowe.
Vet sprinkling happens at all stages of builds and on both sides of the ball. That was McC last year and Davis this. Both were more role model recruits than studs.
I just hope when the time comes to add final pieces that we don't fall into the big name trap.
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Too early.....but Ill throw Shon Coleman out for the biggest disappointment....non performer...on the list
And with Coleman and Gordon not playing, I was definitely hoping for more from our other 3 WR picks.....
So, dont see an obvious bust(cept Shon), but dont see any obvious super stars or difference makers either.....tho maybe the other Coleman can pull it out when he gets healthy....
Otherwise, fairly hum drum average stuff to this point.....
Hard to grade so many who havent played.....lots of incompletes....
Too early...
Then the thread would be pointless. The idea was to predict who you think will be a bust.
Don't know why Tour just didn't say that to those with the "too early" responses.
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Then the thread would be pointless. The idea was to predict who you think will be a bust.
Don't know why Tour just didn't say that to those with the "too early" responses.
If Coleman plays, he's a success, if he can't play because of injuries then he'd be a bust. That's pretty much it I think.
Ogbah is looking solid enough - if he ends up with, say, 6 sacks in his rookie year that's pretty decent, as long as he builds on it next.
Then we start getting in to third round picks - Nassib's work rate and high motor and all the stuff that took him from walk on to big 10 DPOY most likely means he has a pretty high 'floor' if not 'ceiling'
Kessler - looking promising
Coleman - has just started playing after recovering from injury, too early to tell
Fourth round picks and beyond, it has to be pretty special to be a bust, like VInce Mayle not making the team at all for example. Maybe Trey Caldwell, a fifth round pick that got cut, could be? But really, if that's it, I'm quite pleased.
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Then the thread would be pointless. The idea was to predict who you think will be a bust.
Don't know why Tour just didn't say that to those with the "too early" responses.
Because that was not the idea...
I got tired of reading draft bitching in other threads and repeatedly trying to make the case that this is a new FO with no track record. So I created this thread to challenge naysayers to make a case. While a couple responders came closer to making a case than I thought could be made, there certainly there is no consensus bust out of the 14.
Certainly "too early" is a factor this year in my mind, but in past years it hasn't been and that's a difference.
But had I invited opinions and then immediately, reflexively discounted them as "too early", then that would have defeated the purpose of the thread wouldn't it?
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Ok....we're one game shy of mid-season and we do have the 4 preseason games.....so, here's my mid point assessment......will try to be as fair as possible......Ima grade Plus for a good grade....even(not good not bad)....and minus for disappointing or bad......
-Yr- Rnd ---- Player ---- Pk - Pos
2016 1 Corey Coleman 15 WR - Grade = evenHe gets an incomplete. I can only go by what Ive seen, which is very little. He's missed 8 out of 11 game opportunities so far, which is comcerning on it's own. But it is what it is. Ive seen him play 3 games. 2 he did not look good and had several blatant drops, which has been one of my main concerns(and complaints) about that pick. And in 1 he looked GREAT! Which shows there is a high ceiling on what he can do for us. So, theres plenty of hope here that he could be a star and let's pray he's not fragile. Time will tell on both.
2016 2 Emmanuel Ogbah 32 DE - Grade = plus
Improving and showing me enough to think he could develop. Hope they keep him up front though and forget the OLB idea. I wrote in another thread that he is on track to equal Sheards rookie season, which was pretty damn good. If Horton(and Hue) dont fuck it up(like the Browns(and Horton) did by moving Sheard from DE to Olb), he looks like he could develop to a low double digit sack guy who can play the run...
2016 3 Carl Nassib 65 DE - Grade = even
Ok. Let's get the Nassib cliches in first....love his motor, love his attitude and love for the game, fun, etc....Now, football. Pretty much invisible after game 1. Does get some pressure, here and there. Yeah, I know, he hurt his hand. Not much(nothing?) against the run. So, a long way to go here. But' he's got the right attitude, so I wouldnt put it past him to develop into a strong situational pass rusher and fan favorite for years to come.....(fingers crossed)
2016 3 Shon Coleman 76 T - Grade = minus
Blah. Got nothing on this guy. Im not an OL guy, so I can only go by what I see and hear. What I dont see is him playing....at a position we are really hurting at....and I see a 7th round rookie and UDFA playing ahead of him. So, I assume, he sucks.
2016 3 Cody Kessler 93 QB - Grade = plus
Discussed to death. But, in a nut shell,.. he's much better than I expected, but still not good enough to build around....dont think he's our future and I do think they'll draft another one high....confirming this opinion and making this a questionable pick(at least to me)....
2016 4 Joe Schobert 99 OLB - Grade = minus
As you all know, Ive been screaming about OLBS since Ive been here, so Ive been watching Joe closely.....and, unfortunately, Im underwhelmed.....honestly didnt think he should be starting ahead of Orchard. He's basically a non entity out there. An occassional tackle/assit and never much else. Looks like back-up material to me......
2016 4 Ricardo Louis 114 WR - Grade = minus
Another underwhelming player so far. All the chatter about these WR's we picked and ....so far....nothing. So, as far as future starter/star/etc.....I have been given no reasons to believe this guy is gonna do much...
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2016 4 Derrick Kindred 129 - Grade = plus
I like this guy....why?....cause he can tackle. Someone called him Whitner light, which is a fair comment.....cant cover, but gets to the ball and seals the deal. Unfortunately for him, I Campbell is better in coverage and also a solid tackler....and only in year 2....so, Kindred looks like a keeper, but as a back up to Campbell...
2016 4 Seth Devalve 138 TE - Grade = minus
Got nothing on this guy. Incomplete. Havent seen or heard anything to indicate he's gonna do much and he's been buried on the depth chart from day 1, behind a whole bunch of average......soo, Im gonna guess that he's no good.....
2016 5 Jordan Payton 154 WR - Grade = minus
Hellooo....anybody home???....WR pick #3...Josh Gordon never came back, Colemans out, Pryors injured and Payton has zero catches.....what can I say?
2016 5 Spencer Drango 168 G - Grade = plus
Ok...as I said above, Im not much on rating OL.....this guy has gotten himself into some games and has shown some impovement.....at least he's playing ahead of Coleman.....so, well see how he develops.....5th rounder is probably, at the least, meeting expectations....
2016 5 Rashard Higgins 172 WR - Grade = minus
I guess, to me, this is a little disappointing. He's had limited opportunities, but with all the blabbering this pre-season about how great this guy was...and how great he looked at camp....blah blah blah....I expected much much more. Only 3 catches. And, as stated with Payton, no Gordon or Coleman and still nothing from this all WR draft class......
2016 5 Trey Caldwell 173 DB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
2016 7 Scooby Wright 250 ILB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
In the end, I see 4-6 players who...(right now)....look like they could stick for the long haul....a few starter types and a few role player types.....none really stand out as future stars(AllPro types)....maybe Coleman, but at WR, the competition is stiff.....
So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
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Ok....we're one game shy of mid-season and we do have the 4 preseason games.....so, here's my mid point assessment......will try to be as fair as possible......Ima grade Plus for a good grade....even(not good not bad)....and minus for disappointing or bad......
-Yr- Rnd ---- Player ---- Pk - Pos
2016 1 Corey Coleman 15 WR - Grade = evenHe gets an incomplete. I can only go by what Ive seen, which is very little. He's missed 8 out of 11 game opportunities so far, which is comcerning on it's own. But it is what it is. Ive seen him play 3 games. 2 he did not look good and had several blatant drops, which has been one of my main concerns(and complaints) about that pick. And in 1 he looked GREAT! Which shows there is a high ceiling on what he can do for us. So, theres plenty of hope here that he could be a star and let's pray he's not fragile. Time will tell on both.
2016 2 Emmanuel Ogbah 32 DE - Grade = plus
Improving and showing me enough to think he could develop. Hope they keep him up front though and forget the OLB idea. I wrote in another thread that he is on track to equal Sheards rookie season, which was pretty damn good. If Horton(and Hue) dont fuck it up(like the Browns(and Horton) did by moving Sheard from DE to Olb), he looks like he could develop to a low double digit sack guy who can play the run...
2016 3 Carl Nassib 65 DE - Grade = even
Ok. Let's get the Nassib cliches in first....love his motor, love his attitude and love for the game, fun, etc....Now, football. Pretty much invisible after game 1. Does get some pressure, here and there. Yeah, I know, he hurt his hand. Not much(nothing?) against the run. So, a long way to go here. But' he's got the right attitude, so I wouldnt put it past him to develop into a strong situational pass rusher and fan favorite for years to come.....(fingers crossed)
2016 3 Shon Coleman 76 T - Grade = minus
Blah. Got nothing on this guy. Im not an OL guy, so I can only go by what I see and hear. What I dont see is him playing....at a position we are really hurting at....and I see a 7th round rookie and UDFA playing ahead of him. So, I assume, he sucks.
2016 3 Cody Kessler 93 QB - Grade = plus
Discussed to death. But, in a nut shell,.. he's much better than I expected, but still not good enough to build around....dont think he's our future and I do think they'll draft another one high....confirming this opinion and making this a questionable pick(at least to me)....
2016 4 Joe Schobert 99 OLB - Grade = minus
As you all know, Ive been screaming about OLBS since Ive been here, so Ive been watching Joe closely.....and, unfortunately, Im underwhelmed.....honestly didnt think he should be starting ahead of Orchard. He's basically a non entity out there. An occassional tackle/assit and never much else. Looks like back-up material to me......
2016 4 Ricardo Louis 114 WR - Grade = minus
Another underwhelming player so far. All the chatter about these WR's we picked and ....so far....nothing. So, as far as future starter/star/etc.....I have been given no reasons to believe this guy is gonna do much...
.
2016 4 Derrick Kindred 129 - Grade = plus
I like this guy....why?....cause he can tackle. Someone called him Whitner light, which is a fair comment.....cant cover, but gets to the ball and seals the deal. Unfortunately for him, I Campbell is better in coverage and also a solid tackler....and only in year 2....so, Kindred looks like a keeper, but as a back up to Campbell...
2016 4 Seth Devalve 138 TE - Grade = minus
Got nothing on this guy. Incomplete. Havent seen or heard anything to indicate he's gonna do much and he's been buried on the depth chart from day 1, behind a whole bunch of average......soo, Im gonna guess that he's no good.....
2016 5 Jordan Payton 154 WR - Grade = minus
Hellooo....anybody home???....WR pick #3...Josh Gordon never came back, Colemans out, Pryors injured and Payton has zero catches.....what can I say?
2016 5 Spencer Drango 168 G - Grade = plus
Ok...as I said above, Im not much on rating OL.....this guy has gotten himself into some games and has shown some impovement.....at least he's playing ahead of Coleman.....so, well see how he develops.....5th rounder is probably, at the least, meeting expectations....
2016 5 Rashard Higgins 172 WR - Grade = minus
I guess, to me, this is a little disappointing. He's had limited opportunities, but with all the blabbering this pre-season about how great this guy was...and how great he looked at camp....blah blah blah....I expected much much more. Only 3 catches. And, as stated with Payton, no Gordon or Coleman and still nothing from this all WR draft class......
2016 5 Trey Caldwell 173 DB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
2016 7 Scooby Wright 250 ILB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
In the end, I see 4-6 players who...(right now)....look like they could stick for the long haul....a few starter types and a few role player types.....none really stand out as future stars(AllPro types)....maybe Coleman, but at WR, the competition is stiff.....
So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
.....none really stand out as future stars(AllPro types)....maybe Coleman, but at WR, the competition is stiff.....
Well since trading out of the stars gave us a lot of draft picks that put us in good position for those stars, the real question will be did they learn anything from the 2016 draft that might make them go for star players?
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So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
We can quibble about one or two guys here and there, but if we've picked up four at least starter quality players, plus a few backup/situational guys, that's a pretty solid year of drafting, to be fair. Another two years of that will go a long way to making this team relevant in January. Just got to make sure we do it the Seahawks way and get it right, not the Jags way where they're still treading water four years in to the Bradley project, having spent big money on FAs.
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So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
We can quibble about one or two guys here and there, but if we've picked up four at least starter quality players, plus a few backup/situational guys, that's a pretty solid year of drafting, to be fair. Another two years of that will go a long way to making this team relevant in January. Just got to make sure we do it the Seahawks way and get it right, not the Jags way where they're still treading water four years in to the Bradley project, having spent big money on FAs.
.... if we've picked up four at least starter quality players, plus a few backup/situational guys, that's a pretty solid year of drafting, to be fair. Another two years of that will go a long way to making this team relevant in January...
...my main beef has been that this draft would be good, if added to a decent team.....but the tear down is why this isnt good enough...
Bottom line.....we both agree that there could be 3-4 starters found......and 2-3 back ups......
BUT.....we released 13 starters and back ups who are helping other teams......8 of those guys are starting and 5 are back ups...
Soooooo....we released 8 starters and got 4 back.......and we released 5 backups and got 3 back......how does that make us better???
The giant step back is why these smaller steps forward dont excite me much......basically gonna need 2 more of these drafts "just to get back to where we were"......
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lets look at this....position by position.....and see where we got better.....("my" better player in red)
GONE VS REPLACEMENT
Dansby...........................Davis...................Dansby still the better more versatile player
Gipson............................Poyer...................Gipson was/is still better
Whitner...........................Campbell..............Ditto this
Schwartz........................Drango-Paztor......Schwartz hands down
Mack..............................Erving....................Haaaaaaaahhahaha
Benjiman........................Pryor.....................a wash.....statistically identical(tho Id rather have Pryor)
Kruger............................Ogbah...................upgrade goes to the rookie.....YAY!
Starks............................Cooper...................the stats dont lie.....Coop is at about 2/3 the production....
Hartline..........................Louis......................nope, they dont....
Williams.........................Boddy-Calhoun......Boddy's doing ok, but not the top level play we got from Kwaun
Lee................................Colquitt...................not even close....
Coons............................Parkey....................another wash(ie...didnt get better)
Gabriel...........................Payton-Higgins.......Gabe's statistically better than both of these guys(then and now)
Hughes..........................Paea.......................another one thats not close....Hughes hands down...
A. Bryant........................Nassib....................Nassib on track to = exactly 1/2 of AB's production last year(as a back up)
So....there are 15 players that were replaced and, based upon right now, I see one position that was CLEARLY improved and 2 positions that are a wash and 12 positions that did not improve......
And, yeah, we can quibble on one or two.....but STATS back up my argument all the way......and the only argument against those stats is the assumption that these players will get better someday.....but right now, I dont see the big step forward or the guys who will make that happen......
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lets look at this....position by position.....and see where we got better.....("my" better player in red)
GONE VS REPLACEMENT
Dansby...........................Davis...................Dansby still the better more versatile player
Gipson............................Poyer...................Gipson was/is still better
Whitner...........................Campbell..............Ditto this
Schwartz........................Drango-Paztor......Schwartz hands down
Mack..............................Erving....................Haaaaaaaahhahaha
Benjiman........................Pryor.....................a wash.....statistically identical(tho Id rather have Pryor)
Kruger............................Ogbah...................upgrade goes to the rookie.....YAY!
Starks............................Cooper...................the stats dont lie.....Coop is at about 2/3 the production....
Hartline..........................Louis......................nope, they dont....
Williams.........................Boddy-Calhoun......Boddy's doing ok, but not the top level play we got from Kwaun
Lee................................Colquitt...................not even close....
Coons............................Parkey....................another wash(ie...didnt get better)
Gabriel...........................Payton-Higgins.......Gabe's statistically better than both of these guys(then and now)
Hughes..........................Paea.......................another one thats not close....Hughes hands down...
A. Bryant........................Nassib....................Nassib on track to = exactly 1/2 of AB's production last year(as a back up)
So....there are 15 players that were replaced and, based upon right now, I see one position that was CLEARLY improved and 2 positions that are a wash and 12 positions that did not improve......
And, yeah, we can quibble on one or two.....but STATS back up my argument all the way......and the only argument against those stats is the assumption that these players will get better someday.....but right now, I dont see the big step forward or the guys who will make that happen......
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