Our 2016 Draft Class Game: Find the "Bust"
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lets look at this....position by position.....and see where we got better.....("my" better player in red)
GONE VS REPLACEMENT
Dansby...........................Davis...................Dansby still the better more versatile player
Gipson............................Poyer...................Gipson was/is still better
Whitner...........................Campbell..............Ditto this
Schwartz........................Drango-Paztor......Schwartz hands down
Mack..............................Erving....................Haaaaaaaahhahaha
Benjiman........................Pryor.....................a wash.....statistically identical(tho Id rather have Pryor)
Kruger............................Ogbah...................upgrade goes to the rookie.....YAY!
Starks............................Cooper...................the stats dont lie.....Coop is at about 2/3 the production....
Hartline..........................Louis......................nope, they dont....
Williams.........................Boddy-Calhoun......Boddy's doing ok, but not the top level play we got from Kwaun
Lee................................Colquitt...................not even close....
Coons............................Parkey....................another wash(ie...didnt get better)
Gabriel...........................Payton-Higgins.......Gabe's statistically better than both of these guys(then and now)
Hughes..........................Paea.......................another one thats not close....Hughes hands down...
A. Bryant........................Nassib....................Nassib on track to = exactly 1/2 of AB's production last year(as a back up)
So....there are 15 players that were replaced and, based upon right now, I see one position that was CLEARLY improved and 2 positions that are a wash and 12 positions that did not improve......
And, yeah, we can quibble on one or two.....but STATS back up my argument all the way......and the only argument against those stats is the assumption that these players will get better someday.....but right now, I dont see the big step forward or the guys who will make that happen......
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lets look at this....position by position.....and see where we got better.....("my" better player in red)
GONE VS REPLACEMENT
Dansby...........................Davis...................Dansby still the better more versatile player
Gipson............................Poyer...................Gipson was/is still better
Whitner...........................Campbell..............Ditto this
Schwartz........................Drango-Paztor......Schwartz hands down
Mack..............................Erving....................Haaaaaaaahhahaha
Benjiman........................Pryor.....................a wash.....statistically identical(tho Id rather have Pryor)
Kruger............................Ogbah...................upgrade goes to the rookie.....YAY!
Starks............................Cooper...................the stats dont lie.....Coop is at about 2/3 the production....
Hartline..........................Louis......................nope, they dont....
Williams.........................Boddy-Calhoun......Boddy's doing ok, but not the top level play we got from Kwaun
Lee................................Colquitt...................not even close....
Coons............................Parkey....................another wash(ie...didnt get better)
Gabriel...........................Payton-Higgins.......Gabe's statistically better than both of these guys(then and now)
Hughes..........................Paea.......................another one thats not close....Hughes hands down...
A. Bryant........................Nassib....................Nassib on track to = exactly 1/2 of AB's production last year(as a back up)
So....there are 15 players that were replaced and, based upon right now, I see one position that was CLEARLY improved and 2 positions that are a wash and 12 positions that did not improve......
And, yeah, we can quibble on one or two.....but STATS back up my argument all the way......and the only argument against those stats is the assumption that these players will get better someday.....but right now, I dont see the big step forward or the guys who will make that happen......
And, yeah, we can quibble on one or two.....but STATS back up my argument all the way......and the only argument against those stats is the assumption that these players will get better someday.....but right now, I dont see the big step forward or the guys who will make that happen......Except this time you seem to me to have cooked some of the comparisons. I usually love your analytical cases, but this one has some flaws. For one thing roles have changed. For another some ex's are out of the league... which I guess is the ultimate role change.
Two prime cases are Starks and Hartline... both out of the NFL. Using the former Browns' prior year is simply not valid. The former Browns are a year older. Are their snap counts comparable? Should we cut either of their replacements do you think they would go unclaimed? I say, no.
Coons is a similar case as he is sitting by the phone. After a rough start vs. Miami, a game in which he missed all three of the FGs he has missed this year, Parkey has been good. And his makes include 1 for 1 over 50 when range was a major reason for the move to him.
Sure there are areas where we have undeniably regressed with RT being the most stark example, but even at Center when someone other than Cam has filled that role, the drop off is reduced considerably.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Yep....I know it's not a perfect comparison....and a number of these guys needed to be replaced and a few guys gave us no choice.....I totally get it....
So...when a guy is out of the league and his replacement is having a worse season than that unemployed guy had, how should I look at that??....Starks started ahead of Cooper and is now out of the league....but his #'s are better and when he was lined up with Coop, his coaches thought he was better too.....Coons is out of the league and was replaced by a guy who ALSO was out of the league......Hartline is out of the league, but his replacements kinda look bad right now and, if Hartline returned, they would probably be behind him on the depth chart........Kwaun?.....injured AND mishandled.....
Right now, we have been relying on a bunch of guys who "were out of the league" when this season started....Paea, Parkey, Colquitt, Reiter, Callahan, Cam Johnson(who is now starting ahead of Schobert...bout time someone did), .....so we have 3 guys who left and did not sign elsewhere and have obtained 6-7 guys who were in the same boat......
My main point is I keep hearing we are so much better and the improvement is obvious, blah blah blah....and that is not the case.....
and I keep hearing this was a great draft......and that is not how I see it either.....
So....pound for pound.....stat for stat....we have gotten worse.....and we need to add more players today, than we needed at the end of last season....still dont see a step forward or improvement that makes me feel good.....
Tour....you, of all people, should know that I scratch and dig for the gold....always trying to find the gem, silver lining, sliver of hope.....and hard as I try(and I AM TRYING), I am not able to find em this year.....sorry......
BUT....I am trying to at least present my whining in a tolerable and limited way.....instead of just bitching all day, every day....Ive been biting my tongue for weeks, just waiting for something good to bring to the board.....and it aint happening....
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The reason I tend to be cautious, pessimistic, is you need to start someone in the NFL. Unless you field a team that goes 0-16 and loses every game 35-3 someone has to make plays. I affectionately call it the "Jordan Cameron Affect".
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Ok....we're one game shy of mid-season and we do have the 4 preseason games.....so, here's my mid point assessment......will try to be as fair as possible......Ima grade Plus for a good grade....even(not good not bad)....and minus for disappointing or bad......
-Yr- Rnd ---- Player ---- Pk - Pos
2016 1 Corey Coleman 15 WR - Grade = evenHe gets an incomplete. I can only go by what Ive seen, which is very little. He's missed 8 out of 11 game opportunities so far, which is comcerning on it's own. But it is what it is. Ive seen him play 3 games. 2 he did not look good and had several blatant drops, which has been one of my main concerns(and complaints) about that pick. And in 1 he looked GREAT! Which shows there is a high ceiling on what he can do for us. So, theres plenty of hope here that he could be a star and let's pray he's not fragile. Time will tell on both.
2016 2 Emmanuel Ogbah 32 DE - Grade = plus
Improving and showing me enough to think he could develop. Hope they keep him up front though and forget the OLB idea. I wrote in another thread that he is on track to equal Sheards rookie season, which was pretty damn good. If Horton(and Hue) dont fuck it up(like the Browns(and Horton) did by moving Sheard from DE to Olb), he looks like he could develop to a low double digit sack guy who can play the run...
2016 3 Carl Nassib 65 DE - Grade = even
Ok. Let's get the Nassib cliches in first....love his motor, love his attitude and love for the game, fun, etc....Now, football. Pretty much invisible after game 1. Does get some pressure, here and there. Yeah, I know, he hurt his hand. Not much(nothing?) against the run. So, a long way to go here. But' he's got the right attitude, so I wouldnt put it past him to develop into a strong situational pass rusher and fan favorite for years to come.....(fingers crossed)
2016 3 Shon Coleman 76 T - Grade = minus
Blah. Got nothing on this guy. Im not an OL guy, so I can only go by what I see and hear. What I dont see is him playing....at a position we are really hurting at....and I see a 7th round rookie and UDFA playing ahead of him. So, I assume, he sucks.
2016 3 Cody Kessler 93 QB - Grade = plus
Discussed to death. But, in a nut shell,.. he's much better than I expected, but still not good enough to build around....dont think he's our future and I do think they'll draft another one high....confirming this opinion and making this a questionable pick(at least to me)....
2016 4 Joe Schobert 99 OLB - Grade = minus
As you all know, Ive been screaming about OLBS since Ive been here, so Ive been watching Joe closely.....and, unfortunately, Im underwhelmed.....honestly didnt think he should be starting ahead of Orchard. He's basically a non entity out there. An occassional tackle/assit and never much else. Looks like back-up material to me......
2016 4 Ricardo Louis 114 WR - Grade = minus
Another underwhelming player so far. All the chatter about these WR's we picked and ....so far....nothing. So, as far as future starter/star/etc.....I have been given no reasons to believe this guy is gonna do much...
.
2016 4 Derrick Kindred 129 - Grade = plus
I like this guy....why?....cause he can tackle. Someone called him Whitner light, which is a fair comment.....cant cover, but gets to the ball and seals the deal. Unfortunately for him, I Campbell is better in coverage and also a solid tackler....and only in year 2....so, Kindred looks like a keeper, but as a back up to Campbell...
2016 4 Seth Devalve 138 TE - Grade = minus
Got nothing on this guy. Incomplete. Havent seen or heard anything to indicate he's gonna do much and he's been buried on the depth chart from day 1, behind a whole bunch of average......soo, Im gonna guess that he's no good.....
2016 5 Jordan Payton 154 WR - Grade = minus
Hellooo....anybody home???....WR pick #3...Josh Gordon never came back, Colemans out, Pryors injured and Payton has zero catches.....what can I say?
2016 5 Spencer Drango 168 G - Grade = plus
Ok...as I said above, Im not much on rating OL.....this guy has gotten himself into some games and has shown some impovement.....at least he's playing ahead of Coleman.....so, well see how he develops.....5th rounder is probably, at the least, meeting expectations....
2016 5 Rashard Higgins 172 WR - Grade = minus
I guess, to me, this is a little disappointing. He's had limited opportunities, but with all the blabbering this pre-season about how great this guy was...and how great he looked at camp....blah blah blah....I expected much much more. Only 3 catches. And, as stated with Payton, no Gordon or Coleman and still nothing from this all WR draft class......
2016 5 Trey Caldwell 173 DB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
2016 7 Scooby Wright 250 ILB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
In the end, I see 4-6 players who...(right now)....look like they could stick for the long haul....a few starter types and a few role player types.....none really stand out as future stars(AllPro types)....maybe Coleman, but at WR, the competition is stiff.....
So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
Ok....we're one game shy of mid-season and we do have the 4 preseason games.....so, here's my mid point assessment......will try to be as fair as possible......Ima grade Plus for a good grade....even(not good not bad)....and minus for disappointing or bad......
-Yr- Rnd ---- Player ---- Pk - Pos
2016 1 Corey Coleman 15 WR - Grade = even
He gets an incomplete. I can only go by what Ive seen, which is very little. He's missed 8 out of 11 game opportunities so far, which is comcerning on it's own. But it is what it is. Ive seen him play 3 games. 2 he did not look good and had several blatant drops, which has been one of my main concerns(and complaints) about that pick. And in 1 he looked GREAT! Which shows there is a high ceiling on what he can do for us. So, theres plenty of hope here that he could be a star and let's pray he's not fragile. Time will tell on both.
2016 2 Emmanuel Ogbah 32 DE - Grade = plus
Improving and showing me enough to think he could develop. Hope they keep him up front though and forget the OLB idea. I wrote in another thread that he is on track to equal Sheards rookie season, which was pretty damn good. If Horton(and Hue) dont fuck it up(like the Browns(and Horton) did by moving Sheard from DE to Olb), he looks like he could develop to a low double digit sack guy who can play the run...
2016 3 Carl Nassib 65 DE - Grade = even
Ok. Let's get the Nassib cliches in first....love his motor, love his attitude and love for the game, fun, etc....Now, football. Pretty much invisible after game 1. Does get some pressure, here and there. Yeah, I know, he hurt his hand. Not much(nothing?) against the run. So, a long way to go here. But' he's got the right attitude, so I wouldnt put it past him to develop into a strong situational pass rusher and fan favorite for years to come.....(fingers crossed)
2016 3 Shon Coleman 76 T - Grade = minus
Blah. Got nothing on this guy. Im not an OL guy, so I can only go by what I see and hear. What I dont see is him playing....at a position we are really hurting at....and I see a 7th round rookie and UDFA playing ahead of him. So, I assume, he sucks.
2016 3 Cody Kessler 93 QB - Grade = plus
Discussed to death. But, in a nut shell,.. he's much better than I expected, but still not good enough to build around....dont think he's our future and I do think they'll draft another one high....confirming this opinion and making this a questionable pick(at least to me)....
2016 4 Joe Schobert 99 OLB - Grade = minus
As you all know, Ive been screaming about OLBS since Ive been here, so Ive been watching Joe closely.....and, unfortunately, Im underwhelmed.....honestly didnt think he should be starting ahead of Orchard. He's basically a non entity out there. An occassional tackle/assit and never much else. Looks like back-up material to me......
2016 4 Ricardo Louis 114 WR - Grade = minus
Another underwhelming player so far. All the chatter about these WR's we picked and ....so far....nothing. So, as far as future starter/star/etc.....I have been given no reasons to believe this guy is gonna do much...
.
2016 4 Derrick Kindred 129 - Grade = plus
I like this guy....why?....cause he can tackle. Someone called him Whitner light, which is a fair comment.....cant cover, but gets to the ball and seals the deal. Unfortunately for him, I Campbell is better in coverage and also a solid tackler....and only in year 2....so, Kindred looks like a keeper, but as a back up to Campbell...
2016 4 Seth Devalve 138 TE - Grade = minus
Got nothing on this guy. Incomplete. Havent seen or heard anything to indicate he's gonna do much and he's been buried on the depth chart from day 1, behind a whole bunch of average......soo, Im gonna guess that he's no good.....
2016 5 Jordan Payton 154 WR - Grade = minus
Hellooo....anybody home???....WR pick #3...Josh Gordon never came back, Colemans out, Pryors injured and Payton has zero catches.....what can I say?
2016 5 Spencer Drango 168 G - Grade = plus
Ok...as I said above, Im not much on rating OL.....this guy has gotten himself into some games and has shown some impovement.....at least he's playing ahead of Coleman.....so, well see how he develops.....5th rounder is probably, at the least, meeting expectations....
2016 5 Rashard Higgins 172 WR - Grade = minus
I guess, to me, this is a little disappointing. He's had limited opportunities, but with all the blabbering this pre-season about how great this guy was...and how great he looked at camp....blah blah blah....I expected much much more. Only 3 catches. And, as stated with Payton, no Gordon or Coleman and still nothing from this all WR draft class......
2016 5 Trey Caldwell 173 DB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
2016 7 Scooby Wright 250 ILB - Grade = minus
Practice squad...
In the end, I see 4-6 players who...(right now)....look like they could stick for the long haul....a few starter types and a few role player types.....none really stand out as future stars(AllPro types)....maybe Coleman, but at WR, the competition is stiff.....
So thats my mid-season prediction on this group....1-2 good+ starters...&..1-2 ok/avg starters.....1-2 back up players.....
Pretty damn good synopsis mud.
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Muddles - it's fine to look at the production of guys like Starks and Hartline but beyond what Tour said, those guys are pushing or over 30, and they're not the quality required to get a team to the post season. Perhaps they're better than the guys we currently have, but what's the point in that? Give Cooper and Higgins (I've seen enough of Louis to say buh-bye) a year of playing time that they would not otherwise have had, and then we can compare.
Benjamin vs Pryor is a wash, after 8 games of the season - that's with Pryor having played precisely 8 games at receiver, and Benjamin his whole life. Point being, Benjamin has basically hit his ceiling - a solid third choice receiver that can contribute in the return game until he gets the yips. Pryor it basically at his floor, and already as good as Benjamin.
If we're aiming to be a very good team in a couple years, Randy Starks (and Whitner, Gipson, Hartline, Kruger) are not going to be part of that, for *both* age and talent reasons. Maybe Xavier Cooper won't, and I'm not holding out much hope for him in that regard, but it looks like maybe Ibrahim Campbell will be a pretty good strong safety, and can contribute for 10+ years in cleveland, while Whitner would have been a decent strong safety for us for...2 years?
That's not to say I agree with all of the moves this team has made, and I doubt you'll find anywhere, probably even within the FO itself that is 100% on board with all of the moves. For example, I would definitely have made more of an effort to keep Gipson and Schwartz. Signing RG3 was obviously a Hue Jackson move, and he takes the 'credit' for that. I'd like to see more playing time for Higgins or Payton, as Louis has looked like Greg Little incarnate, but if the scheme is calling for a big fast guy, it kinda has to be Louis.
It's shitty luck that the center we brought in from the skins blew out his knee in his one game where he looked a competent starter (as opposed to Erving who always seems to be around the TFLs we take, looking backwards).
Oh, and, you forgot one:
Manziel............................Kessler...................yay!
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Chris-I was thinking the same thing about the age factor as I was reading Mud and Tour on this issue. Got to go with the lesser but younger player if they have at least a chance in the long run of getting better than the old. I understand the FO thinking on it, even if I don't agree with some of the draft choices they made and failed to make. All we have now is the hope they have learned MAJOR lessons from 2016 drafting/fa mistakes. If not then Goolie will have been proven correct on eventual firings.
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Chris-I was thinking the same thing about the age factor as I was reading Mud and Tour on this issue. Got to go with the lesser but younger player if they have at least a chance in the long run of getting better than the old. I understand the FO thinking on it, even if I don't agree with some of the draft choices they made and failed to make. All we have now is the hope they have learned MAJOR lessons from 2016 drafting/fa mistakes. If not then Goolie will have been proven correct on eventual firings.
Chris-I was thinking the same thing about the age factor as I was reading Mud and Tour on this issue. Got to go with the lesser but younger player if they have at least a chance in the long run of getting better than the old. I understand the FO thinking on it, even if I don't agree with some of the draft choices they made and failed to make. All we have now is the hope they have learned MAJOR lessons from 2016 drafting/fa mistakes. If not then Goolie will have been proven correct on eventual firings.
Exactly - I understand the reasoning behind it, and most of the execution. I'm sure if they had this offseason back they'd do some things differently.
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I don't see why Mud has such trouble understanding the strategy here. Are we really talking about Brian Hartline here??
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Refer to the link below and tell me that the 2016 draft isn't arguably the best draft we've had since 1999. I am having a hard time seeing any draft before this with more than two key contributors to the team in the few years after they were drafted. 2010, 2011 and 2012 maybe, that's it.
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Refer to the link below and tell me that the 2016 draft isn't arguably the best draft we've had since 1999. I am having a hard time seeing any draft before this with more than two key contributors to the team in the few years after they were drafted. 2010, 2011 and 2012 maybe, that's it.
Please folks, refer to the link below and tell me that the 2016 draft isn't arguably the best draft we've had since 1999. I am having a hard time seeing any draft before this with more than two key contributors to the team in the few years after they were drafted. 2010, 2011 and 2012 maybe, that's it.
It's hard to look past that 2013 draft, with Barkevious Mingo headlining a list of perennial pro-bowlers in Leon McFadden, Jamoris Slaughter and Garrett Gilkey.
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Please folks, refer to the link below and tell me that the 2016 draft isn't arguably the best draft we've had since 1999. I am having a hard time seeing any draft before this with more than two key contributors to the team in the few years after they were drafted. 2010, 2011 and 2012 maybe, that's it.
It's hard to look past that 2013 draft, with Barkevious Mingo headlining a list of perennial pro-bowlers in Leon McFadden, Jamoris Slaughter and Garrett Gilkey.
It's hard to look past that 2013 draft...
... because the next thing waiting for you is 2012's First Round.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
... because the next thing waiting for you is 2012's First Round.
Trent Richardson scored 12 touchdowns. That doesn't happen by accident. There was at least a mediocre, crowell-level player in there that got destroyed by trades, loss of confidence, fitness, the rest. It's a shame, but what can you do. At least we got a first round pick out of it that turned in to johnny manziel oh fuck it I'd rather have kept richardson.
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If Richardson had the kind of long leash anywhere that Crowell's had he'd be a Pro Bowler.
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But he did not, and he is not. A waste of mediocre talent isn't something I'm going to cry about.
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... because the next thing waiting for you is 2012's First Round.
Trent Richardson scored 12 touchdowns. That doesn't happen by accident. There was at least a mediocre, crowell-level player in there that got destroyed by trades, loss of confidence, fitness, the rest. It's a shame, but what can you do. At least we got a first round pick out of it that turned in to johnny manziel oh fuck it I'd rather have kept richardson.
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That does seem a little harsh on Crowell !
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Chris-I was thinking the same thing about the age factor as I was reading Mud and Tour on this issue. Got to go with the lesser but younger player if they have at least a chance in the long run of getting better than the old. I understand the FO thinking on it, even if I don't agree with some of the draft choices they made and failed to make. All we have now is the hope they have learned MAJOR lessons from 2016 drafting/fa mistakes. If not then Goolie will have been proven correct on eventual firings.
Chris-I was thinking the same thing about the age factor as I was reading
Not saying we should have kept all those guys....just showing how we didnt improve....
Exactly - I understand the reasoning behind it, and most of the execution. I'm sure if they had this offseason back they'd do some things differently.
The execution is my ONLY issue.....again.....not saying Id rather have Hartline or Kruger again.....my point(all along) has been that I wanted BETTER players, when those old schmucks left.......and I wanted the NEW players to be better and actually beat those old schmucks out....instead of just get handed the jobs(w/o working to earn them).....and I wanted them to keep a few old schmucks, in the event that they had zero plan to replace them, until they found viable replacements.....but instead, I got 11 schmucks gone and only a hand ful back....not one person has shown me a convincing argument on WHY a team must get worse, in order to get better......so....my point....is that out of the 11 schmucks who sucked and got shafted outta here, they have only given me a few viable decent replacements and whole big pile of shitty football....
I don't see why Mud has such trouble understanding the strategy here. Are we really talking about Brian Hartline here??
I dont see why you never understand shit and always add your own meaning....read the words......I get the strategy, but just think it sucks and that the execution sucks too....can you get that?
To clarify....I keep hearing about youth and let the young guys play and this drfat class, blah blah blah.....but here's some reality on what the FO gave us....
Replaced Whitner(1 yr removed from multiple pro-bowls) with his back up
Replaced Gipson (1 yr removed from the pro bowl) with his back up
Replaced Starks with his back up
Replaced Mack with his terrible back up
Replaced Schwartz with his udfa back up
Replaced Dansby with a less accomplished Vet
Replaced our entire OLB corps with 2 UDFA's, 1 4th rounder and DE project
Replaced our All pro punter with a udfa
THIS ^^^^^ is not rebuilding....it's tearing down and then plugging in crap....
And the rookies who are supposed to be benefitting from this purge and starting(or playing a lot)....arent
Ogbah is the only rookie starter right now.....
Nassib, Louis, Kessler, Drango, Schobert and Kindred are getting reps.....
And the other 7 are either hurt or on the bench.....
Keeping a few vets and signing a few quality players in FA...(OL anyone?)....coulda woulda been the difference in this team actually winning some games and starting to understand and build toward a "WINNING" culture.....
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You obviously don't "get the strategy," since you question it ad nauseum, basically saying the same thing over and over. We get it, you don't like it. When you actually analyze, your posts are really good. When you get to ranting and repeating yourself, it's brutal.
There are no old guys because old guys take snaps from young guys. Snaps=more important than some nebulous concept of having to beat out vets. You have been told this many times now, yet choose to hit the same talking points over and over anyway.
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I do get it and it sucks.....guess I didnt say that clearly last post....
I have lots of talking points, but you seem to only see this stuff....actually been away for weeks, cause Im ill from what I see....
And....as Ive told you MANY times, no need for you to worry about my posts....Ive asked you to please ignore them, but thats a concept you never got either.....
There's an ignore button....use it....
please
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