The market doesn't care who wins...unless it's Donald Trump, lol
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ONE OF MY HOBBIES FOR THE PAST 44 YEARS OR SO, THE MARKET.....
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The stock market doesnt really care who wins the US election.
Unless that person is Donald Trump.
Late Friday, news broke that the FBI would look into more of Hillary Clintons emails uncovered as part of the Bureaus investigation of Anthony Weiner latest sexting scandal. In keeping with the theme of this election, these headlines are one part comedy, one part tragedy.
Following the news, markets sold off.
Not in an aggressive fashion or, as one candidate might say, big league but enough that it reveals the markets clear preference for a Hillary Clinton presidency.
This is not to say that the market really prefers the policies of a Clinton presidency. The market itself does not have a political view. Rather, this sell off indicates the markets view on what a Clinton administration most likely represents more of the same against the unknown of a Trump administration.
In other words, Clinton provides a modicum of certainty to markets; Trump is the wild card.
Markets hate uncertainty. And in the short-run, it means volatility.
If you open the average Wall Street research note these days youll find estimates of a Clinton victory sitting somewhere between 60%-80%. Nate Silver at the widely-followed prediction site 538 pegs Clintons chances of winning at around 76%.
In a note to clients earlier this month, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro wrote that under the most likely election scenario Clinton wins the White House, Democrats take a small majority in the Senate, Republicans retain a smaller majority in the House well have gridlock from day one.
We think the chance of a major infrastructure spending bill is very small, because almost all Republicans will oppose it, Shepherdson wrote.......
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Came across this:
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Quarter after midnight: Dow futures has lost almost 800 points. Markets across the world are starting to crash.
MAGA?
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Quarter after midnight: Dow futures has lost almost 800 points. Markets across the world are starting to crash.
MAGA?
Quarter after midnight: Dow futures has lost almost 800 points. Markets across the world are starting to crash.
MAGA?
same thing happened after brexit and everything was fine a week later
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They said it was the worst hit since 9/11
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The market crashed before the results numbnuts
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> Hillary is a better president because wall street
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Come in off the ledge boys the market will come back.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
MSNBC was actually quite good this morning until they had the thug Rev Sharpton on.
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MSNBC was actually quite good this morning until they had the thug Rev Sharpton on.
MSNBC was actually quite good this morning until they had the thug Rev Sharpton on.
Yes the tone of the show surprised me but not Reverend Al.
Of course neither did Donny Deutsch wailing and gnashing of teeth.
WSS
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Come in off the ledge boys the market will come back.
WSS
What a short covering comeback. I've been watching the markets since about 8 am not really that long before the 9:30 am opening the DOW 30 came back from -800 to -200 but shortly after the bell it leveled out.Come in off the ledge boys the market will come back.
WSS
10 am the DOW is +35 and the S&P and NASDAQ are similarly up fractionally about 0.12%.
BUT the overseas markets still a bit more uncertain about what's really going to happen to them in the long run.
Ironically the overall market is better than after the 2012 election.
SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Nobody knows for sure, will your 401(k)s and other investments take a long term hit? Will there be a recession or will the DOW hit 20,000 or higher.....nobody really knows because the election results were totally missed by the polling and media BIG TIME.
I say if you're a trader be really alert for the fallout BUT if you're like most of us and long term buy and hold I'd wait a little bit before making any drastic changes. We will have to see how our overseas friends and enemies react to all of this, they were probably more shocked than we were.
In other words it's still the market we really don't know.
Whoops 10:20 am were now down fractionally, some things never change.
GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND! -
Basically, nobody has a god damn clue what's going to happen with the US economy, and any or all of its trading partners, so a lot of people are executing flights to safety. That means basically gold, global reserve currencies and some 'safe' stocks will go up, except the main global reserve currencies were, until earlier this year, USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, with secondaries being RMB, CHF and CAD. Obviously a flight to USD is out of the question. GBP and EUR are in the midst of their own periods of huge uncertainty so that's out. So basically, JPY and gold are seeing big spikes, and other currencies and indices are suffering.
This will hold now, after the bounce, for maybe 6 months or something, give or take, until it becomes clear what Trump's policies are and how they will affect global trade.
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Basically, nobody has a god damn clue what's going to happen with the US economy, and any or all of its trading partners, so a lot of people are executing flights to safety. That means basically gold, global reserve currencies and some 'safe' stocks will go up, except the main global reserve currencies were, until earlier this year, USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, with secondaries being RMB, CHF and CAD. Obviously a flight to USD is out of the question. GBP and EUR are in the midst of their own periods of huge uncertainty so that's out. So basically, JPY and gold are seeing big spikes, and other currencies and indices are suffering.
This will hold now, after the bounce, for maybe 6 months or something, give or take, until it becomes clear what Trump's policies are and how they will affect global trade.
I would not discount the USD quite yet, it's still the world currency and the rest of the world has many problems of their own......Obviously a flight to USD is out of the question.....
This will hold now, after the bounce, for maybe 6 months or something, give or take, until it becomes clear what Trump's policies are and how they will affect global trade.
And yes between now and January 20, 2017 we all will have to wait for more details and policy positions, what the Fed does, winners and losers on Wall Street and more.
An old favorite saying of mine "winners tell jokes and losers say deal"....we have to wait and see how this all falls out.
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Given how much talk there's been about trade deals from Trump - ripping up existing ones, creating new ones etc - it's difficult to be bullish on the greenback any time soon. Not because it's expected to go down, but because who knows what's going to happen?
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Some of you guys know more about the stock market than me but it seems to me it would be a good time to buy some stocks. What Trump is proposing with less corporate taxes, eliminating Obamacare and less regulations seems like it would produce an economic boom. Right now the market appears to be responding to uncertainty...;
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It depends what stocks. Honestly it's probably a good time to by Trump stocks because whatever happens you know his company will benefit.
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