Anatomy of a Browns Draft pick (long version)
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The only useful late-round pick I can think of on the Browns right now?
The Paz, UDFA.
I completely agree.. if Sashi doesn't have anything to do after drafting 7 players before the end of the second day [the third round] then IMHO we had a good 2017 draft.
Is there anyone silly enough to take 4th, 5th round picks to let us move into the 3rd or higher? I'm looking at you, Jacksonville and SanFran and Miami! Let's find out.
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This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
This is gonna be a long one.....so be prepared.....as I have lots of time on my hands and love to crunch numbers.....and since this season isnt providing me with the #'s I enjoy, Ive trailed off in another direction.....draft #'s.....
Here's why.....Ive been very outspoken about my dislike of our current draft strategy.....and the premium I keep seeing us place on middle and late round players.....and the completely unrealistic "expectations" we have for middle and late round players....and the high value we place on something like a 4th round pick....
Example...., I honestly have no issue with trading Andy Lee for a 4th.....in fact, 2 - 7th round picks for a 4th is something ID do everyday.....AND that is what I hope the Browns do with all those late round picks.....MOVE UP......STOP taking quantity over quality and reverse that trend ....Zombo points to those picks as currency, which I think should be spend on a few blue chippers, instead of a bunch of late rounders....My only beef is the expectation that we will get a good player with that 4th(and I mean a legit good player).....
Many argue that we have SOOOOOOO many holes to fill, that the quantity is really what we need....trade down and get as many prospects as possible......but "analytics" will show that you cannot and will not build a quality team, if it is flooded with middle and late picks....just wont happen....doesnt happen.....hasnt happened...
Truth is that almost all good players come from the first 3 rounds.....and good players picked after the 3rd round are extremely rare......a quick scan of our team, right now, reveals this about the players Id say are our ten best.....Defense....Haden(1st) , Kirksey(3rd) , Collins(2nd) , Ogbah(2nd) , Shelton(1st)...Offense:...Thomas(1st) , Bitonio(2nd) , Greco(3rd) , Coleman(1st) , Pryor(3rd) and Crow, who is the one exception as udfa......so, its very clear where our best players came from.....the top 3 rounds.
So, seeing this and hoping our FO see's this.....and hearing so much hope for 4th and later picks....year after year(Im guilty too, btw).....I looked back to see EXACTLY how many late picks have succeeded, what percentages of what picks....etc....and our numbers are very close to the leagues numbers, as a whole.....
Ok....as a rule....less than 30% of players drafted have a career....and only about 5% have "very good" or above avg careers......it's a small number.....average success in the first round is 30%.....2nd round is 20%.....3rd round is 15%.....4th and later is less than 10%......history has proven this. Its a lock. So, for every 6th round Tom Brady, there are 3000 guys who didnt make the cut....
And if only 7% of players drafted 4th or later make it, why invest 20 picks in these guys?....cause that will only net us 1...maybe 2 good players......and to invest 2 years of guaranteed garbage football, just to weed through all these players, looking for "a" gem or two, seems wasteful.....almost like buying lottery tickets for your retirement plan.....and thinking the more you buy, the better you'll do.....
So.....Ive spend "too long" pounding the Browns past drafts and have broken it out for you.....here are the REAL numbers from the past 45 years......1970 through 2015......Cleveland Browns.....drafts
My standard for a keeper, was what I expect a "good draft pick" to be.....a quality starting player over several years.....(one year wonders need not apply)
1970-79 4th & later
141 picks made.....5 quality starters kept......136 backups/busts.......
Starters: Sheppard(5), Dieken(6), Risien(7), Ambrose(12), Sipe(13)
Score: 3% keeper rate.....97% fail rate
1980-89 4th & later
97 picks made.....6 quality starters kept.........91 backups/busts......
Starters: Brennan(4), Baab(5), Langhorne(7), Johnson(7), Byner(10), Farren(12)
Score: 7% keeper rate.....93% fail rate....
1990-99 4th & later
58 picks made........1 quality starter kept......57 backups/busts...
Starter: Burnett(5)
Score: 1.2% keeper rate.....98% fail rate....
2000-10 4th & later
54 picks made.......3 quality starters kept......51 backups/busts...
Starters: A. Davis(5), Pontbriand(5)(kind of), Rubin(6)
Score: 6% keeper rate(pretty avg keepers too).....94% fail rate.....
2011-15 4th & later
24 picks made......1 multi year starter.......23 bckups/busts...
Starter: Skrine(5).........Note: Campbell has an opportunity to make it...but too soon...
Score: 4% keeper........96% fail rate.....
summary - 45 years of 4th round and later Browns picks
374 drafts picks made........
16 - 3 year starters found......the 5 good players made a total of 7 pro bowls....
........................................(Sipe 1, Burnett 1, Dieken 1, Risien 2, Pontbriand 2)...
358 players were not successful.....
So, the Browns averaged 8.3 picks per year(4th and later)......(about what we have now)
and they hit on 1 starter per 23.5 picks.......(it'll take 3 years of 8 picks to achieve this)....
So....in the end.....with these numbers staring you in the face.....and a fact......is this years and last years collection of 4th and later picks still exciting?......
Is flooding our roster with these guys the answer to building a core? or is it just a good way to fill our special teams and back up roster?
do the analytics from above indicate that our path to success is to come from hoarding 4th and later pics?
I have 1st and 3rd round #'s too....but thats for later......
All I can say is.......Trade up.....Trade up.....Trade up.....
Good post,and you and the Browns brass might not be far off.
I think last year was about collecting bodies. And collecting draft picks. Now you can go after stars. We far and away have the most draft currency for the next several years, so we WILL get the players we want. Let's pray to good they are winners.
Zombo
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In 1978, the Browns drafted Clay Matthews and Ozzie Newsome in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. IMO, this was the best 1st round of my tenure as a Diehard. These 2 guys quickly morphed into very productive players that helped this franchise frequent playoffs throughout the 80s. 1 guy was versatile enough to play any of 4 different LBer positions in our 34 when/if needed. When asked who was the toughest guy on our defense, former Buffalo/Cleveland OG Joe DeLamielleure said without hesitation "Clay Matthews. He is one of the toughest son of a bitches I've ever faced." Not to be out-praised, Bear Bryant called Ozzie "the greatest end in Alabama history and that includes Don Hutson. A total team player, fine blocker, outstanding leader, great receiver with concentration, speed, hands." As we know, Ozzie is in the NFL Hall of Fame while Clay is hoping to be inducted into it sometime soon. What ever happened to NOT overthinking the 1st round?
In 1986, the Browns finished the regular season with a 12-4 record. You are about to see a cut and paste of this roster and starting line-up from pro football reference showing when and where all the guys were drafted. As you'll see, drafts used to go 12 rounds in comparison to just 7 rounds today. We also had great fortunes with the 1984 USFL Supplemental Draft as well as the 1985 Supplemental Draft (that expanded our volume of 1st round picks). What jumps out at me is the earliest any of our starting offensive linemen needed to be drafted by Cleveland's front office or a previous team was in round 5 (w/ Baab) while Williams, Farren and Fike went late enough to be undrafted free agents today. Most of the offensive linemen we've drafted after round 2 since 99 haven't been able make themselves long time starters so I hate to think this can't ever change.
Before we get to the starters - here's some situational players that really made the most of their time on the field:
Brian Brennan WR - led team with 55 receptions for 838 yards and 6 TDs mostly on 3rd down (4th round pick)
Herman Fontenot RB - gave us 47 receptions for 559 yards and 1 TD almost exclusively on 3rd down (Undrafted)
Earnest Byner RB - contributed 277 yards rushing with 2 TDs and caught 37 passes for 328 yards and 2 TDs (10th round pick)
David Puzzuoli NT - backup gave us 6 sacks (6th round pick)
Sam Clancy DE - back up added 6.5 sacks (11th round pick by Seattle)
Offensive Starters
QB Bernie Kosar 23 1 16 310 for 531, 3,854 yards, 17 td, 10 int, & 24 rushes for 19 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 1st pick / 1985 Supp
RB Curtis Dickey 30 6 10 135 rushes for 523 yards, 6 td, & 10 catches for 78 yards and 0 td Baltimore Colts / 1st / 5th pick / 1980
FB Kevin Mack 24 1 12 174 rushes for 665 yards, 10 td, & 28 catches for 292 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 11th pick / 1984 Supp
WR Reggie Langhorne 23 1 15 39 catches for 678 yards, 1 td, & 1 rush for -11 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 7th / 175th pick / 1985
WR Webster Slaughter 22 Rook 16 40 catches for 577 yards, 4 td, & 1 rush for 1 yards and 0 td Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 43rd pick / 1986
TE Ozzie Newsome 30 8 16 39 catches for 417 yards, 3 td Cleveland Browns / 1st / 23rd pick / 1978
LT Paul Farren 26 3 16 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 316th pick / 1983
LG Larry Williams 23 Rook 11 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 259th pick / 1985
C Mike Baab 27 4 16 Cleveland Browns / 5th / 115th pick / 1982
RG Dan Fike 25 1 16 1 fumble recovered New York Jets / 10th / 274th pick / 1983
RT Cody Risien* 29 7 16 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 7th / 183rd pick / 1979
Defensive Starters
LDE Reggie Camp 25 3 16 7.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 3rd / 68th pick / 1983
NT Bob Golic* 29 7 16 New England Patriots / 2nd / 52nd pick / 1979
RDE Carl Hairston 34 10 16 9.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 1 fumble recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 7th / 191st pick / 1976
LOLB Chip Banks* 27 4 16 4.5 sacks, 0 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 3rd pick / 1982
LILB Eddie Johnson 27 5 16 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 187th pick / 1981
RILB Anthony Griggs 26 4 15 0.0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 1 fumble recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 4th / 105th pick / 1982
ROLB Clay Matthews 30 8 16 1.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 12th pick / 1978
LCB Frank Minnifield* 26 2 15 0.0 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered
RCB Hanford Dixon*+ 28 5 16 0.0 sacks, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 1st / 22nd pick / 1981
SS Ray Ellis 27 5 15 1.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 0 fumbles recovered Philadelphia Eagles / 12th / 331st pick / 1981
FS Chris Rockins 24 2 16 0.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, 3 fumbles recovered Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 48th pick / 1984
Special Teams Starters
K Matt Bahr 30 7 0 20 of 26 field goals & 30 of 30 extra points Pittsburgh Steelers / 6th / 165th pick / 1979
P Jeff Gossett 29 5 0 83 punts for a 41.2 average, 0 blocked
PR/KR Gerald McNeil 24 Rook 0 40 punt returns for a 8.7 average and 1 td & 47 kick returns for a 21.2 average and 1 td Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 44th pick / 1984 Supp
Roster
- *ProBowl, +1st-tm All-Pro
No. Player Age Pos G GS Wt Ht College/Univ BirthDate Yrs AV Drafted (tm/rnd/yr)43 Tony Baker 22 2 0 182 5-10 East Carolina 6/11/1964 Rook 0 Atlanta Falcons / 10th / 252nd pick / 198686 Brian Brennan 24 16 0 178 5-9 Boston Col. 2/15/1962 2 8 Cleveland Browns / 4th / 104th pick / 198444 Earnest Byner 24 rb 7 7 215 5-10 East Carolina 9/15/1962 2 5 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 280th pick / 198496 Reggie Camp 25 LDE 16 16 274 6-4 California 2/28/1961 3 7 Cleveland Browns / 3rd / 68th pick / 198391 Sam Clancy 28 de 16 1 288 6-7 Pittsburgh 5/29/1958 3 2 Seattle Seahawks / 11th / 284th pick / 198233 Curtis Dickey 30 RB 14 10 213 6-1 Texas A&M 11/27/1956 6 5 Baltimore Colts / 1st / 5th pick / 198029 Hanford Dixon*+ 28 RCB 16 16 186 5-11 Southern Miss 12/25/1958 5 14 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 22nd pick / 198124 Ray Ellis 27 SS 15 15 192 6-1 Ohio St. 4/27/1959 5 5 Philadelphia Eagles / 12th / 331st pick / 198139 Major Everett 26 9 0 215 5-10 Mississippi Col. 1/4/1960 3 074 Paul Farren 26 LG 16 16 272 6-5 Boston Univ. 12/24/1960 3 9 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 316th pick / 198328 Herman Fontenot 23 rb 16 3 206 6-0 LSU 9/12/1963 1 679 Bob Golic* 29 NT 16 16 264 6-2 Notre Dame 10/26/1957 7 10 New England Patriots / 2nd / 52nd pick / 19797 Jeff Gossett 29 P 16 0 200 6-2 East. Illinois 1/25/1957 5 380 Terry Greer 29 wr 11 1 192 6-1 Alabama St. 9/27/1957 Rook 0 Los Angeles Rams / 11th / 304th pick / 198053 Anthony Griggs 26 RILB 16 15 227 6-3 Villanova,Ohio St. 2/12/1960 4 7 Philadelphia Eagles / 4th / 105th pick / 198278 Carl Hairston 34 RDE 16 16 260 6-3 Md-Eastern Shore 12/15/1952 10 8 Philadelphia Eagles / 7th / 191st pick / 197623 Mark Harper 25 db 16 1 174 5-9 Alcorn St. 11/5/1961 Rook 248 D.D. Hoggard 25 16 0 188 6-0 North Carolina St. 5/20/1961 1 181 Harry Holt 29 14 0 236 6-4 Arizona 12/29/1957 3 151 Eddie Johnson 27 LILB 16 16 220 6-1 Louisville 2/3/1959 5 7 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 187th pick / 198159 Mike Johnson 24 16 0 230 6-1 Virginia Tech 11/26/1962 Rook 2 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 18th pick / 1984 Supp19 Bernie Kosar 23 QB 16 16 210 6-5 Miami (FL) 11/25/1963 1 13 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 1st pick / 1985 Supp88 Reggie Langhorne 23 WR 16 15 200 6-2 Elizabeth City St. 4/7/1963 1 6 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 175th pick / 198534 Kevin Mack 24 FB 12 12 224 6-0 Clemson 8/9/1962 1 8 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 11th pick / 1984 Supp90 Ralph Malone 22 16 0 225 6-5 Georgia Tech 1/12/1964 Rook 189 Gerald McNeil 24 KR 16 0 145 5-7 Baylor 3/27/1962 Rook 2 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 44th pick / 1984 Supp31 Frank Minnifield* 26 LCB 15 15 180 5-9 Louisville 1/1/1960 2 83 Mark Moseley 38 4 0 202 5-11 Texas A&M,S.F. Austin 3/12/1948 16 1 Philadelphia Eagles / 14th / 346th pick / 197082 Ozzie Newsome 30 TE 16 16 232 6-2 Alabama 3/16/1956 8 4 Cleveland Browns / 1st / 23rd pick / 197858 Scott Nicolas 26 16 0 226 6-3 Miami (FL) 8/7/1960 4 1 Cleveland Browns / 12th / 310th pick / 198272 Dave Puzzuoli 25 16 0 260 6-3 Pittsburgh 1/12/1961 3 2 Cleveland Browns / 6th / 149th pick / 198363 Cody Risien* 29 RT 16 16 269 6-7 Texas A&M 3/22/1957 7 12 Cleveland Browns / 7th / 183rd pick / 197937 Chris Rockins 24 FS 16 16 195 6-0 Oklahoma St. 5/18/1962 2 6 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 48th pick / 19845 Webster Slaughter 22 WR 16 16 175 6-1 San Diego St. 10/19/1964 Rook 6 Cleveland Browns / 2nd / 43rd pick / 198687 Travis Tucker 23 16 0 234 6-3 Southern Connecticut St. 9/19/1963 1 0 Cleveland Browns / 11th / 287th pick / 198550 Brad Van Pelt 35 16 0 235 6-5 Michigan St. 4/5/1951 13 1 New York Giants / 2nd / 40th pick / 197385 Clarence Weathers 24 16 0 170 5-9 Delaware St. 1/10/1962 3 170 Larry Williams 23 LG 16 11 292 6-5 Notre Dame 7/3/1963 Rook 7 Cleveland Browns / 10th / 259th pick / 198560 Jeff Wiska 27 1 0 265 6-3 Michigan St. 10/17/1959 Rook 0 New York Giants / 7th / 186th pick / 198222 Felix Wright 27 16 0 190 6-2 Drake 6/22/1959 -
Good post Flugel.....and, Id agree, that that 80's team had some late round help(as almost ALL teams do)....but, as the OP points out....the KEY players and the ones who made the team great were mostly our higher picks....
Ozzy - Mathews - Kosar - Pruitt - Mack - Johnson - Slaughter - Dixon - Banks - Minnefield.....
and a few FA's....cause many of those guys you listed were obtained from other teams - not drafted by the Browns...(Farren, Fike, Fontenot, Hairston, Golic, Bahr, Minnefield, Mack, Johnson, Wright, etc etc)
These are the guys who made it a great team.......
And without the advent of the supplemental/USFL rounds.....we would never have obtained this talent through conventional means,,,,because we would have never gotten Kosar, Minnefield, Johnson, Mack or the Cube.....
So.....if we are gonna win with late picks and UDFA's.....lets hope we obtain a few proven ones through Free agency.....ala something like a Barnidge or Bryant.....and not depend on finding diamonds in the rough(cause there are very very few of them)....and this FO thinks they'll be the ones to find them, but based upon this past draft, Im not convinced they will.....at all....
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Good post Flugel.....and, Id agree, that that 80's team had some late round help(as almost ALL teams do)....but, as the OP points out....the KEY players and the ones who made the team great were mostly our higher picks....
Ozzy - Mathews - Kosar - Pruitt - Mack - Johnson - Slaughter - Dixon - Banks - Minnefield.....
and a few FA's....cause many of those guys you listed were obtained from other teams - not drafted by the Browns...(Farren, Fike, Fontenot, Hairston, Golic, Bahr, Minnefield, Mack, Johnson, Wright, etc etc)
These are the guys who made it a great team.......
And without the advent of the supplemental/USFL rounds.....we would never have obtained this talent through conventional means,,,,because we would have never gotten Kosar, Minnefield, Johnson, Mack or the Cube.....
So.....if we are gonna win with late picks and UDFA's.....lets hope we obtain a few proven ones through Free agency.....ala something like a Barnidge or Bryant.....and not depend on finding diamonds in the rough(cause there are very very few of them)....and this FO thinks they'll be the ones to find them, but based upon this past draft, Im not convinced they will.....at all....
Good post Flugel.....and, Id agree, that that 80's team had some late round help(as almost ALL teams do)....but, as the OP points out....the KEY players and the ones who made the team great were mostly our higher picks....
Ozzy - Mathews - Kosar - Pruitt - Mack - Johnson - Slaughter - Dixon - Banks - Minnefield.....
and a few FA's....cause many of those guys you listed were obtained from other teams - not drafted by the Browns...(Farren, Fike, Fontenot, Hairston, Golic, Bahr, Minnefield, Mack, Johnson, Wright, etc etc)
These are the guys who made it a great team.......
And without the advent of the supplemental/USFL rounds.....we would never have obtained this talent through conventional means,,,,because we would have never gotten Kosar, Minnefield, Johnson, Mack or the Cube.....
So.....if we are gonna win with late picks and UDFA's.....lets hope we obtain a few proven ones through Free agency.....ala something like a Barnidge or Bryant.....and not depend on finding diamonds in the rough(cause there are very very few of them)....and this FO thinks they'll be the ones to find them, but based upon this past draft, Im not convinced they will.....at all....
Thanks Mud! Good points.
To your point about the key play makers you specified that made this team what it was via high round picks - it sure helped when we could draft very efficient keepers on the offensive line at the same time like Farren in round 12, Williams in round 10, Risien in round 7 and Baab in round 5. Fike came over from the Jets who drafted him in round 10. That frees up earlier rounds for the Hanford Dixons, Chip Banks, Webster Slaughters and whatever early-mid round values we swapped out in order to draft Bernie Kosar, Kevin Mack, Mike Johnson, and Gerald McNeil.
Another thing we need to remember is that rosters were bigger in the 70s and 80s while free agency didn't threaten teams from losing key veterans as frequently as it seems to today. This way they could plan around being patient for late round guys to develop such as keeping a 13th round QB like Brian Sipe around from 1972 until he was ready to start full time 4-5 years later. Pittsburgh used to draft their future Pro Bowl LBers like Joey Porter, Greg Lloyd, Jason Gildon in mid-later rounds (while James Harrison was undrafted) while they could be patient training them for a complicated zone blitz scheme behind a productive vet. Today, they're drafting more LBers in round 1 such as Shazier, Dupree, Timmons, and Jones with the understanding they can no longer afford to wait 2-3 years patiently before getting 3 years of productivity. It's all about get the impact now.
I'm with you about trading some mid-late round volume for greater impact in earlier rounds. Let's hope the first draft of this regime showed our front office this should be a good idea moving forward. Who knows, maybe their plan last year was to do just that this coming draft.
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Good discussion...
I am left wondering if today's college game:
- still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or
- "talent" no longer translates to the pro level as the college and pro games so much more different today.
Long discussed when it comes to QBs; discussed but less so with OL. Very little discussion of impact on RBs and WRs, but I'm starting to feel more and more that it's not a minor factor there either.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Good discussion...
I am left wondering if today's college game:
- still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or
- "talent" no longer translates to the pro level as the college and pro games so much more different today.
Long discussed when it comes to QBs; discussed but less so with OL. Very little discussion of impact on RBs and WRs, but I'm starting to feel more and more that it's not a minor factor there either.
Good discussion...
I am left wondering if today's college game:
- still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or
My theory is that todays media and FO's have better tools to find & rank the good players.....
In the last 20-30 years, draft prep has come a looooooooooong way, as has the player evaluation process......
And with the Mel Kipers, PFF's, analytics and vast amounts of information available....it just leaves much less room for sleepers and surprises.....
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OK, with all the tools available to pick talent, how many of our rookies would have been kept by any other team? I've seen a flash here and there, plus inexperience but haven't really seen signs of improvement. Maybe I'm missing something but 0-11 without improvement in play pretty much says it all.
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OK, with all the tools available to pick talent, how many of our rookies would have been kept by any other team? I've seen a flash here and there, plus inexperience but haven't really seen signs of improvement. Maybe I'm missing something but 0-11 without improvement in play pretty much says it all.
OK, with all the tools available to pick talent, how many of our rookies would have been kept by any other team? I've seen a flash here and there, plus inexperience but haven't really seen signs of improvement. Maybe I'm missing something but 0-11 without improvement in play pretty much says it all.
Cant disagree with you.....but, if you're following....the tools dont guarantee you make quality picks.....they just diminish the likelihood that a star quality player gets missed and falls into the later rounds.....
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Good discussion...
I am left wondering if today's college game:
- still produces the kind of late round talent it did in the 80's... in either quantity or quality; and/or
My theory is that todays media and FO's have better tools to find & rank the good players.....
In the last 20-30 years, draft prep has come a looooooooooong way, as has the player evaluation process......
And with the Mel Kipers, PFF's, analytics and vast amounts of information available....it just leaves much less room for sleepers and surprises.....
My theory is that todays media and FO's have better tools to find & rank the good players.....
In the last 20-30 years, draft prep has come a looooooooooong way, as has the player evaluation process......
And with the Mel Kipers, PFF's, analytics and vast amounts of information available....it just leaves much less room for sleepers and surprises.....
Makes sense... and then there's the Combine...
Even if their evaluations vary widely, players get noticed today that slipped thru cracks previously.
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