Possible Next Browns QB
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Zombo, if you're missing anything it may be an understanding about why McCarron was a 5th rounder. In his final season at Alabama he had suffered a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. As a result any team that drafted him had to be willing to select a player who would be incapable of playing for the first 10-12 games of his rookie season. Furthermore, unless that team was willing to put McCarron on IR it would also need to carry an injured 3rd QB on it's 53 man roster. Knowing all of this it's small wonder McCarron slipped in the draft.
Yet despite all of the above McCarron was still ranked immediately behind Garrapalo as the next best QB prospect. For example, prior to the 2014 draft Dane Brugler of Draftscout had ranked the QB prospects in the following order. Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel as 1st rounders. Carr and Garrapalo as 2nd rounders. Next up, McCarron was ranked 6th and given a 3rd round grade.
Granted, you can keep repeating how McCarron slipped to the 5th round, but three years later....why should it matter? The shoulder injury that caused him to slip hasn't been a concern since 2015.
Last, I've read your rant about Garrapalo and you may be surprised to hear that I agree with you. I liked Garrapalo better than McCarron when both players were drafted and I still like him better now. So yeah, if all things were equal I'd trade for Garrapalo before I'd trade for McCarron. But there's the rub because I do think things are more equal than you imply. Hue Jackson knows better than anyone what caused McCarron to slip to the 5th round and I doubt where the two players were drafted three years ago will carry much weight in any debate.
Zombo, if you're missing anything it may be an understanding about why McCarron was a 5th rounder. In his final season at Alabama he had suffered a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. As a result any team that drafted him had to be willing to select a player who would be incapable of playing for the first 10-12 games of his rookie season. Furthermore, unless that team was willing to put McCarron on IR it would also need to carry an injured 3rd QB on it's 53 man roster. Knowing all of this it's small wonder McCarron slipped in the draft.
Yet despite all of the above McCarron was still ranked immediately behind Garrapalo as the next best QB prospect. For example, prior to the 2014 draft Dane Brugler of Draftscout had ranked the QB prospects in the following order. Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel as 1st rounders. Carr and Garrapalo as 2nd rounders. Next up, McCarron was ranked 6th and given a 3rd round grade.
Granted, you can keep repeating how McCarron slipped to the 5th round, but three years later....why should it matter? The shoulder injury that caused him to slip hasn't been a concern since 2015.
Last, I've read your rant about Garrapalo and you may be surprised to hear that I agree with you. I liked Garrapalo better than McCarron when both players were drafted and I still like him better now. So yeah, if all things were equal I'd trade for Garrapalo before I'd trade for McCarron. But there's the rub because I do think things are more equal than you imply. Hue Jackson knows better than anyone what caused McCarron to slip to the 5th round and I doubt where the two players were drafted three years ago will carry much weight in any debate.
You seem hung up on this "5th round" thing.
I was just noticing that some of the people that were all over this apple hated the idea of purchasing the other apple that was deemed a little shinier last time they were both on the market. Just wondering what I missed in that regard.
As for my own personal opinion, when I look at ceilings I see Grop as more of a gunglsinger (Brees) and McCarron more of manager (Smith). I think A.J. is in the same mold as Kessler, so I think we can work with him some more before trading a first for McCarron. Grop I see as different species, I think he could be something really special.
I don't back prospective QBs too much ... but when I like one, I like one ... until I'm proven otherwise. Nothing I've seen yet has turned me off Grop.
Zombo
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Zombo said:
He is not those guys.
I am not convince dthat he isn't.
Mallet was shit. Hoyer was a nobody, who proved himself OK.
Cassell is a Scott Mitchell ... turned a one year fill-in on a good team into a big contract.
Yes....Mitchell and Garropolo sitting in a tree, etc.
Grop is a guy that was a better prospect than all of those guys, and if you liked him before the draft, there is no reason not to like him now.
He'll be starting for somebody next year. A team with balls, and not a defeatist attitude. A team not afraid to trade with the Big Bad Belichick.
I think that could be Sashi and Hue.
Zombo
I don't see what Garoppolo and Cassell have in common other than they played for the same team.
Matt Flynn is not Matt Hasslebeck.
If you're going to dismiss guys simply because of the team, the system or the coach ... then you're scouting with your eyes closed.
Zombo
Zombo said:
I don't see what Garoppolo and Cassell have in common other than they played for the same team.
Matt Flynn is not Matt Hasslebeck.
If you're going to dismiss guys simply because of the team, the system or the coach ... then you're scouting with your eyes closed.
Zombo
I guess its just like guys saying that it is the Browns that killed QBs.....I don't believe that. I also don't believe a QB is good just because he backed up Tom Brady. These guys are not Tom Brady lite.
I will be on board with this guy if and when he becomes a member of the Cleveland Browns. Until then, I will retain my right to remain skeptical.
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I'm not hung up on the 5th round thing nearly as much as you seem to be. After all, it was part of your rant and you did ask what you might be missing. So I thought you might appreciate a little background information that went deeper than the shiny apple comparison.
But looking at the bigger picture I actually agree with your eloquent and brutally simple rant about Garrapalo. If you liked him better before you still like him better now. To say more spoils the beauty of the thing.
Oh, and here's the latest scuttled butt about McCarron being traded. When asked today about the rumors of a trade Marvin answered by saying...."Well, ante up."
FWIW that's a big change from the last time Marvin answered the question in March when he flatly told Mike Florio McCarron wouldn't be traded this offseason.
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Tour, I'm not going to quibble over which player is considered slightly better. My point was it's probably a closer evaluation than some think...and I strongly doubt where each player was drafted three years ago will carry much weight. In fact, if I was in the mood I think I could craft a pretty strong argument in favor of McCarron based upon his experience running Hue's scheme.
For starters, McCarron already knows the plays, understands the terminology, and has worked with Hue long enough to understand his tendencies and desires. He could show up tomorrow bringing more experience in your teams offensive scheme than all three QBs on your current roster, including the starter. So if your HC wanted to jump start your latest rebuilding project I'd be hard pressed to find a more attractive option, especially if your front office was reluctant to throw millions of dollars at an unproven QB. To kick the tires on McCarron would cost you one premium draft pick...a mid round sweetener...and less than a million bucks. Garrapalo will cost slightly more, and has no experience working in Hue's scheme.
Last, I didn't hear Polians remarks but I have to wonder if the real roadblock to a trade for McCarron isn't a reluctance on the Bengals part to trade McCarron to a division rival, but rather...the reluctance of the Browns franchise to send a high draft pick to Cincy.
Tour, I'm not going to quibble over which player is considered slightly better.
Last, I didn't hear Polians remarks but I have to wonder if the real roadblock to a trade for McCarron isn't a reluctance on the Bengals part to trade McCarron to a division rival, but rather...the reluctance of the Browns franchise to send a high draft pick to Cincy.
That's OK... I wasn't looking for an argument, even an argument-lite, just laying out an alternative take.
Giving a division rival ammo is always a consideration no matter the form it takes. Not nearly on the same scale, but it shocked me a couple years ago when Cinci let Hawkins come to us in FA for not much more money. But deals happen as we saw when the Steelers ponied up for Gilbert.
At the risk of stating the obvious... each just has to be secure in the knowledge that they got the better of the deal... or they'll be a special level of hell to pay if the fan base sees they did not.
Zombo said:
As for my own personal opinion, when I look at ceilings I see Grop as more of a gunglsinger (Brees) and McCarron more of manager (Smith).
Explains why I don't like Jimmy G all that much... my gunslinger aversion genome.
Although I do like Brees... guess he's not one in my book.
Oh, and here's the latest scuttled butt about McCarron being traded. When asked today about the rumors of a trade Marvin answered by saying...."Well, ante up."FWIW that's a big change from the last time Marvin answered the question in March when he flatly told Mike Florio McCarron wouldn't be traded this offseason.
So is Marvin's job safe?
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Tour, yeah, I think Marvin is safe. I once felt Vance Joseph was going to be his successor, and it could still happen if Joseph doesn't get a team of his own this year. But for the most part the Bengals pipeline of fresh NFL head coaches has run dry.
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Given a choice ....who starts in 2017
Jimmy Garappolo for Pick 12
Tyrod Taylor in FA
AJ McCarron for a 3rd rounder
Mitch Trubisky
Deshaun Watson
Deshone Kizer
RG3
Josh McCown
CodyKessler
Other
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AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?
You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.
How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.
Too much?
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I would be happy with either Garoppolo or McCarron. Either one is an instant upgraded starter & allows us to go after defensive play makers. As far as price? Time will tell, but I do NOT want to spend either of my 1st round picks this year on them.
Mike
IN DORSEY I TRUST -
Given a choice ....who starts in 2017
Jimmy Garappolo for Pick 12
Tyrod Taylor in FA
AJ McCarron for a 3rd rounder
Mitch Trubisky
Deshaun Watson
Deshone Kizer
RG3
Josh McCown
CodyKessler
Other
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I would be happy with either Garoppolo or McCarron. Either one is an instant upgraded starter & allows us to go after defensive play makers. As far as price? Time will tell, but I do NOT want to spend either of my 1st round picks this year on them.
Mike
i'm not convinced either of them are in improvement over Kessler behind an improved line.I would be happy with either Garoppolo or McCarron. Either one is an instant upgraded starter & allows us to go after defensive play makers. As far as price? Time will tell, but I do NOT want to spend either of my 1st round picks this year on them.
Mike
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AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?
You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.
How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.
Too much?
I think both have stronger arms... but we've been down the stronger arm path before.
One more thing on Jimmy G... if he was a gunslinger in college, isn't it likely that has been trained out of him in NE? His 4 TD 0 INT showing in 2016 would seem to suggest that.
You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.
Actually RG3 starting in 2017 is pretty much where I am already... not thrilled by the idea, but it feels like the reality.
As for McCarron's value... not sure it holds with only one more year to go until he hits FA. Certainly the number of suitors will ultimately determine his price and CIN could play the Philly game and hold a good option for teams that lose starters to injury next preseason.
Same for Jimmy G... I mean, if NE let Collins go in his contract year for essentially a high 4th... Granted some issues with Collins did leak in response to Pat fan outcry, but the final contract year factor set the price as low as it ended up being.
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Tour, any team trading for McCarron now could conceivably do so with the idea of giving him a 2-year audition at a bargain price. Consider, he's under contract in 2017 at roughly 750k and as a RFA in 2018 could be offered a tender contract at whatever round and corresponding price the Browns felt another team wouldn't match. Even if McCarron were given a 1st round tender offer the cost would be peanuts when compared to that of a 1st round draft pick like a Trubisky or Watson.
As for suitors, the advantages McCarron could offer the Browns are obvious and have already been noted, but from what I've read the Bears and Bills are the favorites to go hard for him. But in the event nobody agrees to match the Bengals asking price the Bengals will just keep as a backup until he leaves in FA, then pocket the comp pick they'd get in 2019. That's not a bad worst-case scenario IMO. That said, McCarron's trade price now is considered much greater than the Bengals would get if they waited for the comp pick, and by all accounts they don't want to wait. And McCarron doesn't want to wait either. He's itching for the chance to start and knows he won't get the chance in Cincy as long as Dalton is there.
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i'm camp jimmy g. wanted him to begin with instead of manziel.
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Tour, any team trading for McCarron now could conceivably do so with the idea of giving him a 2-year audition at a bargain price. Consider, he's under contract in 2017 at roughly 750k and as a RFA in 2018 could be offered a tender contract at whatever round and corresponding price the Browns felt another team wouldn't match. Even if McCarron were given a 1st round tender offer the cost would be peanuts when compared to that of a 1st round draft pick like a Trubisky or Watson.
As for suitors, the advantages McCarron could offer the Browns are obvious and have already been noted, but from what I've read the Bears and Bills are the favorites to go hard for him. But in the event nobody agrees to match the Bengals asking price the Bengals will just keep as a backup until he leaves in FA, then pocket the comp pick they'd get in 2019. That's not a bad worst-case scenario IMO. That said, McCarron's trade price now is considered much greater than the Bengals would get if they waited for the comp pick, and by all accounts they don't want to wait. And McCarron doesn't want to wait either. He's itching for the chance to start and knows he won't get the chance in Cincy as long as Dalton is there.
Tour, any team trading for McCarron now could conceivably do so with the idea of giving him a 2-year audition at a bargain price. Consider, he's under contract in 2017 at roughly 750k and as a RFA in 2018 could be offered a tender contract at whatever round and corresponding price the Browns felt another team wouldn't match. Even if McCarron were given a 1st round tender offer the cost would be peanuts when compared to that of a 1st round draft pick like a Trubisky or Watson.
As for suitors, the advantages McCarron could offer the Browns are obvious and have already been noted, but from what I've read the Bears and Bills are the favorites to go hard for him. But in the event nobody agrees to match the Bengals asking price the Bengals will just keep as a backup until he leaves in FA, then pocket the comp pick they'd get in 2019. That's not a bad worst-case scenario IMO. That said, McCarron's trade price now is considered much greater than the Bengals would get if they waited for the comp pick, and by all accounts they don't want to wait. And McCarron doesn't want to wait either. He's itching for the chance to start and knows he won't get the chance in Cincy as long as Dalton is there.
AJ will be coming off a 4-year deal, so the way I understand the RFA rule he'll be a UFA in 2018. Only players coming off three-year pacts are eligible to be RFA's. So the lack of any assurance you can sign him does hold the price down.
But the comp pick for 2018 would apply. Let's say a 3rd would be his likely comp.
A 2018 3rd is essentially a 2017 4th... that establishes a floor to be bested. If multiple teams are interested... really interested... then who knows how high the bidding goes, but it's hard for me to see a 2017 1st, let alone a 1st and another pick.
A 2017 2nd and 4th? Better... but not our #33. I think our 2.18 (#50) plus our 4.01 would be my limit... and it's a damned sight better than a 2018 - 3.32+...
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I tried to explain the RFA wrinkle earlier. According to ESPN and CincyJungle.com McCarron didn't accrue a season towards FA because he wasn't active and didn't practice his rookie season. If they're wrong they're wrong, but I'll defer to them until a better source appears. That said, if they're correct then you can see how there might be an advantage to trading for McCarron over Garrapalo.
And again, the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year. One year later you may think a single 4th round pick represents the floor where bidding starts, but the only thing an offer like that will get you is the chance to draft another version of Cody Kessler this year. Myself, I wouldn't hate the idea, but if any of you loved the idea you wouldn't be split into Camp Trubisky, Camp Garrappalo, Camp McCarron, or Camp whatever.
As for your hypothetical trade ceiling, the lower 2nd round pick(#50) and a 4th round sweetener is a realistic offer....the first one I've heard....and if it were up to me I'd accept.
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AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?
You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.
How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.
Too much?
AJ McCarron for a 3rd round pick?
You guys might as well get used to the idea of RGIII starting again...because the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year.
How about this for a hypothetical trade. Send pick #33 and a 6th rounder to the Patriots for their 1st rounder. Doesn't matter how low it is because IMO the thing the Bengals want most is a pick that comes with a 5-year contract. Then send the Patriots 1st rounder and one of your own mid round picks to the Bengals.
Too much?
Yes. MHO Uma- the Browns #1, #12, and #33 will only be traded for more picks, not players. & I think Zombo's been smokin' something if he thinks Garropolo is worth our #12. Not sure what McCarron is worth, but if Dalton is better in Lewis' mind that puts a ceiling in my mind how much AJ is worth. Different situation than Jimmy not being able to beat out a future HOFer.
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I tried to explain the RFA wrinkle earlier. According to ESPN and CincyJungle.com McCarron didn't accrue a season towards FA because he wasn't active and didn't practice his rookie season. If they're wrong they're wrong, but I'll defer to them until a better source appears. That said, if they're correct then you can see how there might be an advantage to trading for McCarron over Garrapalo.
And again, the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year. One year later you may think a single 4th round pick represents the floor where bidding starts, but the only thing an offer like that will get you is the chance to draft another version of Cody Kessler this year. Myself, I wouldn't hate the idea, but if any of you loved the idea you wouldn't be split into Camp Trubisky, Camp Garrappalo, Camp McCarron, or Camp whatever.
As for your hypothetical trade ceiling, the lower 2nd round pick(#50) and a 4th round sweetener is a realistic offer....the first one I've heard....and if it were up to me I'd accept.
I tried to explain the RFA wrinkle earlier. According to ESPN and CincyJungle.com McCarron didn't accrue a season towards FA because he wasn't active and didn't practice his rookie season. If they're wrong they're wrong, but I'll defer to them until a better source appears. That said, if they're correct then you can see how there might be an advantage to trading for McCarron over Garrapalo.
And again, the Bengals turned down a 2nd and a 4th for McCarron last year. One year later you may think a single 4th round pick represents the floor where bidding starts, but the only thing an offer like that will get you is the chance to draft another version of Cody Kessler this year. Myself, I wouldn't hate the idea, but if any of you loved the idea you wouldn't be split into Camp Trubisky, Camp Garrappalo, Camp McCarron, or Camp whatever.
As for your hypothetical trade ceiling, the lower 2nd round pick(#50) and a 4th round sweetener is a realistic offer....the first one I've heard....and if it were up to me I'd accept.
My apologies... I now remember you posting about his extensive, 1st-year idling keeping it from accruing. That may be the case. Certainly can't blame you for sticking with your sources.
I looked at overthecap.com and they have AJ slated to be a UFA in 2017. They may be simply going on contract years, but do show AJ as having three accrued seasons... the same as Josh Gordon drafted 2 years earlier... and the same as our Glenn Winston, who has barely seen the active roster let alone the field in four years.
If Cinci plays the waiting game thru 2018, then one other factor that starts creeping in is AJ's age. He's 26 now... still young-ish, but add a year or two...
As for alternatives... as of now:
- I'm in Camp Kizer, but only at #33 as our draft now stands and I'm not exactly dug in on him.
- As a former Tour Darkhorse, who was test fired down the stretch in 2015, AJ's as attractive a back-up as I see out there.
- However, I've a work to do on the class including my current 2017 Darkhorse leader, Chad Kelly, who distracted me when I was trying to evaluate a couple Ole Miss OL last year.
Good discussion...
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Do we really need another QB that can't beat the Squealers?
Do we really need another QB that can't beat the Squealers?
Actually CD, he was doing a pretty good job of beating Pittsburgh when he erased a 4th quarter deficit if memory serves me right. They were working on adding to the lead and chewing up clock late in the game when RB Jeremy Hill fumbled the ball back over to Pitt in the red zone. That was before Burfict and Pac Man reminded everyone on the planet why you need to count on better minds than loose cannons.
If anything, McCarron looked a lot closer to winning a playoff game than Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton were in previous years. He'd have some familiarity and comfort with Hue's offense. Looks like the Cincy offense and Dalton missed that comfort and familiarity in 2016.
I told Canton Mike back in November we can probably get McCarron as a FA (rather than trading picks/players) after his first contract is over which I think would make him available to us in 2018.
I also like the Garroppolo idea; because BB has a team/situation where he can be patient to fill the small few openings necessary. That being the case, we can offer future high round picks from 2018 and/or 2019 as well as a mid round pick this year. If the league ever clears Potsy Gordon, we can throw him into that trade as well. It ain't like the guy can ever pass drug tests long enough to make it sting. For example, he's only suited up 5 times since 2013 as we speak here in 2017.
I'm not sure I like the Tyrod Taylor idea any more than consideration of DeShaun Watson. Once upon a time, Vince Young and RG3 were rookies of the year playing RB from the QB. After VY pulled his hammy and then his groin, his NFL game was shotso prior to RG3 walking into a similar fate following injuries. No thanks!
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Tour, no apologies required as ESPN and CincyJungle.com may yet be proven wrong. But some of what they're saying makes sense. For example, the Bengals didn't let McCarron practice during his rookie season even after he was eligible to do so. Rather, they let him attend meetings but never medically cleared him to practice, and that latter point seems to be where things get fuzzy. At the time it just seemed like they were simply being cautious with a an injured player, but now it seems things may not have been so simple after all. There may have been a method to their madness.
It should also be noted that McCarron has never complained about the way his rookie season was handled. He may or may not have accrued a season towards RFA, but he did get paid, the Bengals covered his medical expenses, and McCarron had access to professional medical and training staff staffs during his rehab. To be fair, he did express disappointment about the way he fell to the 5th round after being told he'd likely be a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but post draft he seemed to realize just how close he came to being undrafted.
Also, if you bothered looking on overthecap.com you may have noticed McCarron's 2017 salary is even cheaper than I claimed. According to Sportrac.com the actual figure is just 620k, not the rounded up 750k I used. Quite frankly, all I was trying to do is show how acquiring McCarron was less expensive than Garrapalo.
Last, the Bengals may indeed play the waiting game with McCarron but they've sent mixed signals. Marvin Lewis has repeatedly said the Bengals weren't interested in trading McCarron, but that only prompted owner Mike Brown to come out of hibernation last year to utter the immortal words...."Not so fast." Perhaps that explains why Lewis didn't flatly reject the idea of a trade the last time he was asked.
trade the pick out to next year to draft in a much deeper QB draft 
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