QB Questions

[calfoxwc]

http://www.hogshaven.com/2017/1/21/14333258/washington-redskins-2017-draft-profiles-deshaun-watson-qb

c

Weaknesses

• Very poor footwork, often flat-footed in the pocket
• Leaves plays on the field with underthrown deep balls and balls behind receivers
• Takes many big hits and has injury history (broken collarbone, finger, torn ACL)
• Incredibly talented offensive weapons at Clemson (Mike Williams, Jordan Leggett, Artavis Scott, Wayne Gallman, Deon Cain ) helped mask deficiencies

Charlie Campbell @DraftCampbell

Text from a national scout who's team is considering Deshaun Watson early. "Every throw is predetermined. Zero reading of defenses."

12:30 PM - 20 Jan 2017

I like Watson, but he needs to go to a team that has a qb already. The Browns don't have that luxury at all. Reports are that

the niners are working to trade down with the Redskins for Kirk Cousins...maybe in the second round, but

I'd take Trubisky at one. And maybe even trade up from 12 to get Solomon. Watson might be a huge steal,

but I don't see him in the top half of the first round unless you have most of your team intact already.

[Unsympathetic]

Watson offers nothing we couldn't get from Tyrod Taylor as a FA -- other than the ability to get injured more frequently.

[RoyceRolls]

Skip Bayless was over the moon for Manziel, Tebow and Weeden, when they came out. Every time he talked about why he loved them so much, he cited how well they played in College. Watson is the best college QB, but when it comes to the NFL I can't get too excited about 6'2" 215 lb. running QBs, especially one who doesn't read the whole field. Furthermore, he doesn't have the arm talent of Kizer or Trubisky from what I've seen.

edit: I've watched all the videos of Kizer on Draftbreakdown.com and while he had a worse record this year, his personal performance was better. The entire team around him, including the coach, were rat shit this year. I wasn't able to watch the defense, but just about every time a new drive started, the opposition had scored. Give this kid a defense, some reliable receivers and a team that's bought in to the coach's vision, and lets see what happens.

[Flugel]

@roycerolls said:

Skip Bayless was over the moon for Manziel, Tebow and Weeden, when they came out. Every time he talked about why he loved them so much, he cited how well they played in College. Watson is the best college QB, but when it comes to the NFL I can't get too excited about 6'2" 215 lb. running QBs, especially one who doesn't read the whole field. Furthermore, he doesn't have the arm talent of Kizer or Trubisky from what I've seen.

edit: I've watched all the videos of Kizer on Draftbreakdown.com and while he had a worse record this year, his personal performance was better. The entire team around him, including the coach, were rat shit this year. I wasn't able to watch the defense, but just about every time a new drive started, the opposition had scored. Give this kid a defense, some reliable receivers and a team that's bought in to the coach's vision, and lets see what happens.

Appreciate you weighing in on that Royce.

[Flugel]

@unsympathetic said:

Watson offers nothing we couldn't get from Tyrod Taylor as a FA -- other than the ability to get injured more frequently.

I bet there's a lot of people sharing your opinion on the Tyrod Taylor comparison. We shall see...

[CaineDeSoulis]

Just thought i would point out the North Carolina had an even worse defense than Notre dame. (ND 42nd and NC 63rd) Clemson had 8th best. Watson is at best a System QB who has a relatively weak arm combined with spotty accuracy and even worse footwork. He's not in a position to succeed because of singular effort. It's because the team he's playing for Clemson is one of the best in the country whether he played or not. Some College QB's are very successful at being College QB's but not at being a PRO QB. Colt McCoy/Tebow/Vince Young/Manziel all come to mind when I think of Watson. Great College Ball players but its almost a different sport in the pros.

​That being said I also don't see the love for kizer. He looks as good as his team played this year. In big games he looked constantly shaky and rattled and failed to read the field. Even saying that I think he is a better pro prospect than Watson and that's only from a potential pro ability standpoint.

and in all honesty Trubisky outplayed both of them this year and if he had 2 years of play at this level. Easy Number 1 pick and we'd all be talking about how lucky we are to get him.... but he does not... so I'm just glad my job isn't on the line deciding on if he's a franchise guy or a one year wonder.

[Flugel]

@cainedesoulis said:

Just thought i would point out the North Carolina had an even worse defense than Notre dame. (ND 42nd and NC 63rd) Clemson had 8th best. Watson is at best a System QB who has a relatively weak arm combined with spotty accuracy and even worse footwork. He's not in a position to succeed because of singular effort. It's because the team he's playing for Clemson is one of the best in the country whether he played or not. Some College QB's are very successful at being College QB's but not at being a PRO QB. Colt McCoy/Tebow/Vince Young/Manziel all come to mind when I think of Watson. Great College Ball players but its almost a different sport in the pros.

​That being said I also don't see the love for kizer. He looks as good as his team played this year. In big games he looked constantly shaky and rattled and failed to read the field. Even saying that I think he is a better pro prospect than Watson and that's only from a potential pro ability standpoint.

and in all honesty Trubisky outplayed both of them this year and if he had 2 years of play at this level. Easy Number 1 pick and we'd all be talking about how lucky we are to get him.... but he does not... so I'm just glad my job isn't on the line deciding on if he's a franchise guy or a one year wonder.

Some valid points Caine; but how many points did it take to beat Bama? And the only time Clemson lost - how many points did Pitt need to outscore them?

The only 2 times I saw Trubisky his team lost. I saw some things I liked but his tendency to lock onto the primary Receiver was the Pick 6 that ultimately became part of the margin of victory Stanford celebrated.

[Flugel]

@calfoxwc said:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2017/1/21/14333258/washington-redskins-2017-draft-profiles-deshaun-watson-qb

c

Weaknesses

• Very poor footwork, often flat-footed in the pocket
• Leaves plays on the field with underthrown deep balls and balls behind receivers
• Takes many big hits and has injury history (broken collarbone, finger, torn ACL)
• Incredibly talented offensive weapons at Clemson (Mike Williams, Jordan Leggett, Artavis Scott, Wayne Gallman, Deon Cain ) helped mask deficiencies

Charlie Campbell @DraftCampbell

Text from a national scout who's team is considering Deshaun Watson early. "Every throw is predetermined. Zero reading of defenses."

12:30 PM - 20 Jan 2017

I like Watson, but he needs to go to a team that has a qb already. The Browns don't have that luxury at all. Reports are that

the niners are working to trade down with the Redskins for Kirk Cousins...maybe in the second round, but

I'd take Trubisky at one. And maybe even trade up from 12 to get Solomon. Watson might be a huge steal,

but I don't see him in the top half of the first round unless you have most of your team intact already.

Thanks for the input Cal!

[Westside Steve]

Zombo I don't know if you have a name for camp Patrick Mahomes but has The MaHomos already been flooated?

WSS

[Orion]

1) All other things being equal, you can't teach height and arm strength.

2) It's somewhat of a crap shoot drafting a QB.

3) Go back to #1.

(do we know for sure that Kessler isn't the Joe Montana?)

[hoorta]

@flugel said:

Some valid points Caine; but how many points did it take to beat Bama? And the only time Clemson lost - how many points did Pitt need to outscore them?

The only 2 times I saw Trubisky his team lost. I saw some things I liked but his tendency to lock onto the primary Receiver was the Pick 6 that ultimately became part of the margin of victory Stanford celebrated.

Tom, Can you name a pro quarterback that hasn't made the same mistake? If you read the scouting report on Watson, he's doing pretty much the same thing. Mitch is more accurate, and has the better arm. Plus, to get distance on his throws Deshawn is heaving arcing rainbows to areas. Where he had Williams to bail him out. Not terribly impressed by his arm strength- we'll see if he dares to throw at the combine, IMO it's very average.

[One Post]

Flugelhorn

Great post and I think Watson is the real deal. Coming closer to draft day when reality turns into wishful thinking.....With all the qb's coming out of this draft and with Dak Presscott doing so well...this might be a '84 qb draft.

I'm a firm believer that if you put a person in the right position they can do very well.

[Flugel]

@hoorta said:

If you read the scouting report on Watson, he's doing pretty much the same thing. Mitch is more accurate, and has the better arm. Plus, to get distance on his throws Deshawn is heaving arcing rainbows to areas. Where he had Williams to bail him out. Not terribly impressed by his arm strength- we'll see if he dares to throw at the combine, IMO it's very average.

Before I address some of your points - it's important to understand if Cleveland honored your wish of Trubisky it would need to be done at #1 overall which turns down the pick of the litter at immediate defensive impact. If QB will be inevitable early somewhere, my alternative recommendation for Watson would be 1) after we drafted our defensive guy at #1 overall and 2) no queer eye for any other guy within a supply and demand that concerns me or 3) or not taking Watson in lieu of drafting more sic em, sock em and sack em.

To your points. So after Watson aced the challenges of defenses like Ohio State and Alabama with vision and poise, you've church moused him down into if he dares to show up to the combines? Just out of curiosity, what will the combines assure me? He'll have all day to throw against no pass rushes and no corners to wide open receivers running the right routes? Yeah, because that's exactly the utopian perks our QBs have been enjoying in Cleveland since 1999. I'd rather watch film that includes defenses challenging mechanics, time to throw, accuracy, poise and vision so I can see how he handles the types of situations he'll see plenty of at the next level.

Now we're back to the same arm strength issues that made Joe Montana an early round no no? A bunch of teams gift wrapped a Hall of Fame QB to SF in a mid round with some really pretty bows and ribbons.

The only MVP we've witnessed here in Cleveland over the last 50 years was supposed to have arm strength issues. Do I need to pretend Brian Sipe never existed? He threw for over 4000 yards when that was unheard of. Seems to me vision and poise has been very helpful to QBs like Sipe and Montana especially when it was time to erase a deficit late in the game. I've been hearing about bionic arms and prototypical QBs since we traded Paul Warfield to draft Mike Phipps at #3 overall. The only time we've aced the first round at QB was in the 85 and it required a supplemental draft to do so. Today, we have a t-shirt featuring a bunch of QBs that weren't keepers inclusive of some bionic arms like Weeden and Anderson.

Throughout countless Dalton rainbows before/after he improved his arm strength up to snuff, his team won the AFC North a few times because there have been very tall pot of gold targets like Eifert and Green seemingly at the end of every rainbow in the end zone.

Have you ever wondered why there's still QBs showing up to be successful every decade without bionic arms? Could it be they have the vision (beginning at pre-snap diagnosis) up until their release so that their throws are on time enough to fit the NFL's smaller windows. If you add poise to that it's easy to see why some of these guys consistently erased 4th quarter deficits when the margin of error was all the way down to 1 mistake = no dice.

Trubisky doesn't have the big body of work for me to share your comfort with. I also asked Gipper if he could give me any signature wins of him beating a more talented team like say a Rodgers over USC or Kosar over Nebraska or Montana over Texas but I never got an answer. Trubisky gave Stanford a great big almost but he threw a pick 6 locking onto his primary target - so guess who got the W? If this happens against your better opponents in college, what makes you think it gets any easier at the next level when he has to read progressions against more complex defenses on a bad team with less time to throw in a faster league vrs better closing speeds?

Now let me ask you this - how many QBs that could only start 1 year in the ACC went on to become NFL franchise saviors?

My logic here is if he was slow to catch on and emerge in college - what makes the gig in Cleveland even easier for him after the tiny body of work? You better make sure you remember this if we end up turning down immediate defensive impact at #1 overall to take Trubisky. You know as well as I do that some years the supply and demand of football messiahs at QB in round 1 became absolute stinkers and franchise sinkers. While many (including me) argue Couch wasn't a bust - McNabb was drafted #2 overall by the team coming off the worst record in football. Which guy frequented post seasons and Conference Championship Games? Our franchise had Tim Couch and Akili Smith rated ahead of McNabb while we chose Scott Milanovich over Kurt Warner in our expansion draft. Man, did that ever set the precedent ahead. I'm willing to look past unpopularity of Watson as an NFL prospect here today like we should have looked at McNabb more so than the veer option he played in. Does he see the field at the speed of the game? What college defenses have more NFL prospects than Alabama and Ohio State so you tell me... I've been wrong before though (especially with QBs)...

[Flugel]

@hoorta said:

Tom, Can you name a pro quarterback that hasn't made the same mistake?

John Elway against us every single time we played him.

If you see a college guy in a college offense training him to throw to a pre-determined primary route every time to the extent a ranked opponent spots him locking onto his primary target in the film room - they're well prepared to make the pick 6 on game day like Stanford did. That's a bad habit perfected that many first round prospects have never been able to successfully de-program.

All that time draft publications quoting various NFL scouts that Brady Quinn was Pro Ready seemed to overlook his frequency to lock onto Jeff Smarzdija when he wasn't counting on his legs to pick up the first down. That didn't seem nearly as ready for the world of reading progressions against more complicated defenses in a faster league with less time to throw against better closing speeds. But Shep argued with me right up until the draft that we needed him at #3 overall with his logic you just reposted on this board last week "if you don't have a QB you need to get one..." That's all fine and dandy if the supply of a football messiah at QB cooperates with our need. As it turned out, many of us were very thankful we drafted Joe Thomas at #3 overall before we traded up to draft Quinn in round 1. When Derek Anderson's skill set began to decompose after the Cinderella midnight came early, many of us wanted to see what we had in this QB we had the balls to trade up into round 1 for. To this day, arm strength never dictated their short period of starting nearly as much as vision or a lack thereof. As Weeden painfully reminded us, it's tough to be accurate throwing when he couldn't see downfield very well. Add his lack of poise to that and you have Weeden throwing a ball up into the end zone seats as time expired vrs Baltimore. Vision was the reason Hoyer easily outplayed Weeden with the same teammates.

That won't stop guys from ranking arm strength ahead of vision. It's the most underrated intangible for QB prospects heading to a more complicated league with faster players. That said, we've also seen a lot of you can't tackle or block what you can't see meaning it's pretty important for other positions as well.

[Flugel]

@one-post said:

Flugelhorn

Great post and I think Watson is the real deal. Coming closer to draft day when reality turns into wishful thinking.....With all the qb's coming out of this draft and with Dak Presscott doing so well...this might be a '84 qb draft.

I'm a firm believer that if you put a person in the right position they can do very well.

Thanks man! I don't think Watson is nearly as bad as people are painting him out to be.

[Tour2ma]

I loved Sipe, too... but the phrase "QBs like Sipe and Montana" should never be uttered... not even in a limited sense.

Any QB with Sipe-like numbers (56% completion and 1:1 TD-INT ratio) would not last two seasons in today's Cleveland atmosphere.

Arm strength and physical statue are no substitute for a high QB IQ, and if I have to set my slider towards one end, then I would chose IQ... but I really don't want to choose.

[Flugel]

@tour2ma said:

I loved Sipe, too... but the phrase "QBs like Sipe and Montana" should never be uttered... not even in a limited sense.

Any QB with Sipe-like numbers (56% completion and 1:1 TD-INT ratio) would not last two seasons in today's Cleveland atmosphere.

Arm strength and physical statue are no substitute for a high QB IQ, and if I have to set my slider towards one end, then I would chose IQ... but I really don't want to choose.

I hear ya. As you know, Sipe played on some bad teams that helped bring that TD:INT ratio in the wrong direction. He mixed in a nice 3 year stretch where he averaged over 4000 yards passing on a team chasing many late deficits. I think what I enjoyed so much about him was despite all his imperfections/limitations inclusive of some forgettable first 58 minute stretches from him at QB - his will to win in the final 2 minutes regardless of what he had around him making me forget this was a guy that wasn't supposed to be starting in this league - let alone consistently winning while doing so. Pretty cool to see him start our Kardiac Kids era that would eventually resurface in the 80s with my other favorite QB Bernie Kosar.

Thought you might find this interesting in terms of re-visiting some familiar names and fond memories - here's a list of stats from him and those he threw the football to in 1980:

QB Brian Sipe 337 of 554 for 4,132 yards 30 TD 14 INT

WR Dave Logan 51 rec 822 yards 4 TD

WR Reggie Rucker 52 rec 768 yards 4 TD

TE Ozzie Newsome 51 rec 594 yards 3 TD

RB Greg Pruitt 50 rec 444 yards 5 TD

FB Mike Pruitt 63 rec 471 yards 0 TD

Other Contributors:

WR Rickey Feacher 10 rec 244 yards 4 TD

WR Keith Wright 3 rec 62 yards 3 TD

WR Willis Adams 8 rec 165 yards 0 TD

WR McDonald Oden 3 rec 18 yards 0 TD

RB Calvin Hill 27 rec 383 yards 6 TD

RB Charles White 17 rec 133 yards 1 TD

FB Cleo Miller 2 rec 8 yards 0 TD

[Browns1216]

is there anyone on board with rolling with Kessler for another year and focus on getting the defense up to par this offseason? No matter who the QB is, it's going to be hard to win when the defense consistently gives up 30+ points a game. Personally, I hope the Browns draft stud defensemen with their first 2 picks, Garrett/Allen with #1 and some secondary help with the #12, Hooker would be great but I doubt he lasts until 12, maybe Peppers? The Browns also need a center, hopefully Elflein will still be there in the 2nd round.

My QB scenario for next season would be Kessler, with RG3 as backup and Hogan as the 3rd QB. McCown would be great as a coach but he just doesn't have the speed and durability to last long, plus he tends to choke away games by throwing dumb interceptions when the pressure is on. Kessler hasn't really wowed anyone last season, but I don't think he did bad enough to warrant giving up on him yet, especially when there are so many other holes on the team that need to be filled with the early draft picks.

[calfoxwc]

depends on the context. I believe Kessler has some limitations - arm strength, and durability.

The qb needs the arm to go downfield to keep defenses honest. Kosar loved to start

out a game on offense, by throwing way the hell downfield just to let the defense know

they had better not cheat up. I think Kessler, when older, will be just like McCown.

So, I'm fine with Kessler starting the season, with Trubisky in the wings, learning.

RGIII - always an amazing physical ability guy, can make some big plays, but then just flat out

brain freezes and makes really, really bad decisions. I hope I never see him take a snap,

and with the cb playing up close, the play is completely covered, and he still just throws

the ball out there quickly. Seriously? That tells me he doesn't process information on

the instant - his instincts for the game just aren't there.

To me, that processing information skill is rare. So many qb's come out of big schools, but without

being able to process the information instantly, you'll struggle in the NFL.

There is no player in the draft that will make a more dramatic impact than Trubisky at the first pick. If

the Browns trade for a veteran qb... I'm fine with that - THEN you can go defense with

your first two picks. Barring that trade... Trubisky has to be the pick.

The niners, bears, and jets at six NEED a qb. The chargers at seven need a qb. The cards at 13 need a qb.

There is no weakness to Trubisky's skills. Relying on "my homes" to be the guy doesn't

seem smart to me. He's a couple of years away, they say, and Trubisky is a better fit in several ways,

imho.

I've watched Trubisky do things at the snap, on a play, that I never see Kiser doing. Watson does.

but Watson doesn't seem a fit - the pros are a very different, high level game.

Trubisky had some better numbers in college than Derek Carr and Watson.

With no trade for a qb, I'd say it is Trubisky - it has to be.

http://rotoviz.com/2016/12/2017-nfl-draft-prospect-deshaun-watson/\\

Name Age AYA Completion % Rushing Yards TD/INT Ratio Deshaun Watson 21 8.2 67.6 524 2.47 Mitch Trubisky 23 9.2 68.9 270 7 Derek Carr 23 8.7 68.9 117 6.25 Russell Wilson 23 11.8 72.8 338 8.25 Cam Newton 22 11.2 66.1 1473 4.29 Aaron Rodgers 21 8.5 66.1 126 3 Marcus Mariota 22 11.5 68.3 770 10.5 Matt Stafford 21 9.2 61.4 40 2.5 Jameis Winston 21 7.7 65.3 65 1.39 Carson Wentz 24 8.7 62.5 294 4.25

[Flugel]

@browns1216 said:

is there anyone on board with rolling with Kessler for another year and focus on getting the defense up to par this offseason? No matter who the QB is, it's going to be hard to win when the defense consistently gives up 30+ points a game. Personally, I hope the Browns draft stud defensemen with their first 2 picks, Garrett/Allen with #1 and some secondary help with the #12, Hooker would be great but I doubt he lasts until 12, maybe Peppers? The Browns also need a center, hopefully Elflein will still be there in the 2nd round.

My QB scenario for next season would be Kessler, with RG3 as backup and Hogan as the 3rd QB. McCown would be great as a coach but he just doesn't have the speed and durability to last long, plus he tends to choke away games by throwing dumb interceptions when the pressure is on. Kessler hasn't really wowed anyone last season, but I don't think he did bad enough to warrant giving up on him yet, especially when there are so many other holes on the team that need to be filled with the early draft picks.

Actually, that was the entire reasoning behind my Chad Kelly vrs Mitch Trubisky thread.

1) I want us to draft the highest defensive impacts possible with our first 2 choices in round 1 and maybe even at the top of round 2 as well so whoever is playing QB here every week isn't down 7-0 every time we defer or lose the coin toss. I want to limit opponent scoring while getting turnovers from them in the process.

2) Meanwhile how much do we really know about Hogan or Kessler just yet? They should have a much better understanding of our offense this year with a full year of NFL strength and conditioning behind them.

3) My Chad Kelly intrigue wasn't because I have Queer Eye for Bad Guy/Injured QB - it was because I'm not convinced there's a lot of difference between skill sets from him and this year's top rated QB. His knee injury would prevent us from playing him too early if at all this year allowing us the chance to see what we already have in Kess, Hogan or both.

I don't know what the plan is up at the top so I'm trying to remain for many different scenarios that could shake out. This thread is meant merely as a Devil's Advocate for trying to keep people's minds open for Watson should we take him at #12 overall. He's got some really good decision making qualities under pressure that come from his ability to see things. He wouldn't beat Alabama without that intangible. Just because RG3 can't stay healthy doesn't mean Watson has to equate to made in China = stayed on Sideline.

My favorite scenario is to accept the defensive gifts that will continue to be on our door step in this draft early and often. I'm all about the sic em, sock em and sack em so the scores to beat for our QBs become more doable.