Pryor to Redskins
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I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
Well said Mike! There was the same conversation last year about Travis Benjamin, who scored 1 more TD than Pryor just did in a career best season (2 years after major knee reconstruction) with 5 TDs 966 yards and 68 receptions at 14.2 ypc. We invested all the time in developing him and when he played his best football - the FO gave him a generous offer but he wanted more elsewhere. People were okay with this and when SD took him in - all his numbers went down. Meanwhile, Pryor gave us more yards and receptions in his very first year starting at WR.
If we offered Pryor 8 million $ after being the only team to give him a chance/stage at WR - I think it's pretty generous considering the body of work. Let's give Rosenhaus a little credit for being a douche. He wasn't going to accept any offer made. We went 1-15 so it's not like anyone isn't replaceable. There's WRs in this draft that have more experience running routes and I'll bet some of them run good routes far more consistently than Pryor.
Well said Mike! There was the same conversation last year about Travis Benjamin, who scored 1 more TD than Pryor just did in a career best season (2 years after major knee reconstruction) with 5 TDs 966 yards and 68 receptions at 14.2 ypc. We invested all the time in developing him and when he played his best football - the FO gave him a generous offer but he wanted more elsewhere. People were okay with this and when SD took him in - all his numbers went down. Meanwhile, Pryor gave us more yards and receptions in his very first year starting at WR.
If we offered Pryor 8 million $ after being the only team to give him a chance/stage at WR - I think it's pretty generous considering the body of work. Let's give Rosenhaus a little credit for being a douche. He wasn't going to accept any offer made. We went 1-15 so it's not like anyone isn't replaceable. There's WRs in this draft that have more experience running routes and I'll bet some of them run good routes far more consistently than Pryor.
Oh well. Rosenhaus got a fat head when he gouged the Steelers with Brown's $19 million. Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this. If Brandon Marshall got $6 million, $8 million sounds about right for Pryor.
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Garcon getting $16m first year is probably bad news regards what Pryor may be being offered
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I disagree on the analytics take. What I believe we are doing is breaking down the cost of performance elements for the FA population by position and then building the cost model for each FA. It's a little like the Moneyball scene where Brad Pitt schools his scouts on what they're looking for.
The difference is that where we have the resources and can afford to spend, the Oakland A's were on a shoestring budget. But if we go crazy, then as you point out, in the out years we will be in trouble.
Case in point... we are about to draft a DE that in four years will likely be handed the richest extension in the history of the game. And, yes, I know that he will come with a 5th year option. I have a feeling he's going to be a keeper that won't get a sniff of FA for at least 8 years... maybe ten.
Doesn't every team do this?
Doesn't every team do this?
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
And here I thought you read my posts...
Will be 28 as of June 20.Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny.
Yup... just as Barn benefited the year before that and Hawk the year before that.
Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this.
I hope you are being sarcastic...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Brownsβ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Doesn't every team do this?
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
And here I thought you read my posts...
Will be 28 as of June 20.Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny.
Yup... just as Barn benefited the year before that and Hawk the year before that.
Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this.
I hope you are being sarcastic...
I hope you are being sarcastic...RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
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I hope you are being sarcastic...
RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Got ya... slight misread on my part.
You mean like the incentivized deal I laid out weeks ago?
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Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Brownsβ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Brownsβ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
There very well may be a problem with our front office being anal about analytics. They may be so beholden to whatever numbers they crunch that they can't use any common sense when making a decision. The best managers are adaptable and flexible. If they are rigid they are ineffective as far as I can tell. In football, rigidity can lead to gridlock thinking. It is not a good way to go.
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I hope you are being sarcastic...
RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
They should. They are that entire team essentially. Those 3 guys are the difference between them and what the Browns were this past season.
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dawgsbynauture.com has Sources that say Pryor will be coming back for 9-10 mil. The source is Jason La canfora though.
Edit. Just speculation
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Doesn't every team do this?
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
And here I thought you read my posts...
Will be 28 as of June 20.Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny.
Yup... just as Barn benefited the year before that and Hawk the year before that.
Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this.
I hope you are being sarcastic...
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
But aren't we still talking "normal" football statistics? The Browns aren't looking at Pryor and saying "he gets off the line in 2 seconds, his catch radius is 7 feet and his hands are rated at 65, so that projects to $8.5 million a year in value"
I guess I'm not following. I'd hope each team evaluates a players skill set and what the team loses and gains with loss or replacement. Like the Gabriel vs Hawkins dilemma, which unfortunately they guessed wrong.
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NFL channel - the guy covering the Browns says the Browns offered 12 million, tp is looking for more.
Remembering how he was fussing and bitching? about something again and again to Hue and a few other
coaches... during a game? stick a fork in him if he is that much a bighead that he wants Antonio Brown money.
Brown has proven himself over more than just the one season. I think Pryor is gone, and won't be sorry he left.
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dawgsbynauture.com has Sources that say Pryor will be coming back for 9-10 mil. The source is Jason La canfora though.
Edit. Just speculation
dawgsbynauture.com has Sources that say Pryor will be coming back for 9-10 mil. The source is Jason La canfora though.
Edit. Just speculation
So that means its most likely a lie.
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dawgsbynauture.com has Sources that say Pryor will be coming back for 9-10 mil. The source is Jason La canfora though.
Edit. Just speculation
So that means its most likely a lie.
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Lets be perfectly real anout pryor....on a team with other options abd a halfway decent QB that has tome to throw the ball, he could very well be the top wr in football. The "time to throw the ball" notion is important because he's most dangerous on the downfield routes. Ofc on a team that cant protect the qb for more than a nano second, that qb is going to struggle getting the ball out.
But still, asking more money than marshal........ehhhh i dunno about that
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Lets be perfectly real anout pryor....on a team with other options abd a halfway decent QB that has tome to throw the ball, he could very well be the top wr in football. The "time to throw the ball" notion is important because he's most dangerous on the downfield routes. Ofc on a team that cant protect the qb for more than a nano second, that qb is going to struggle getting the ball out.
But still, asking more money than marshal........ehhhh i dunno about that
Lets be perfectly real anout pryor....on a team with other options abd a halfway decent QB that has tome to throw the ball, he could very well be the top wr in football. The "time to throw the ball" notion is important because he's most dangerous on the downfield routes. Ofc on a team that cant protect the qb for more than a nano second, that qb is going to struggle getting the ball out.
But still, asking more money than marshal........ehhhh i dunno about that
Sorry but not better than Julio Jones, AJ Green, OBJ, Antonio Brown, etc. His routes and hands aren't nearly good enough for top 5 let alone top 10 WR in the NFL
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Yeah turning down $12M is a little ridiculous.
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I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
But aren't we still talking "normal" football statistics? The Browns aren't looking at Pryor and saying "he gets off the line in 2 seconds, his catch radius is 7 feet and his hands are rated at 65, so that projects to $8.5 million a year in value"
I guess I'm not following. I'd hope each team evaluates a players skill set and what the team loses and gains with loss or replacement. Like the Gabriel vs Hawkins dilemma, which unfortunately they guessed wrong.
But aren't we still talking "normal" football statistics? The Browns aren't looking at Pryor and saying "he gets off the line in 2 seconds, his catch radius is 7 feet and his hands are rated at 65, so that projects to $8.5 million a year in value"
I guess I'm not following. I'd hope each team evaluates a players skill set and what the team loses and gains with loss or replacement. Like the Gabriel vs Hawkins dilemma, which unfortunately they guessed wrong.
Actually we somehow ended up close in how we think we are doing it. But I think there are a lot more "factors"... as you probably do as well.
I do not think there are a lot of teams breaking it down as far as we are... but it's just a suspicion.
NFL channel - the guy covering the Browns says the Browns offered 12 million, tp is looking for more.
That's higher than any reported offer I've read. But it matches a couple reports of what TP was asking...
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