2017 QB Class Comparative Analysis... includes Kess...
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Deep stat dive by same reddit stalwart that is keeping the Prospect Tracker I posted previously, VonJaeger. Cleaned up the charts as best I could. If need clearer look go here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/63c7ih/qb_comparison_by_the_numbers/
Just doodling tonight because I’m bored, so I’m going to post up some numbers to compare DeShone Kizer, Pat Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Davis Webb. For comparison, I also included Cody Kessler’s numbers when he declared. All numbers to follow are from PFF.
TA = Throwaways, BP = Batted Pass, SP = Spiked Pass, HAT = Hit As Thrown
Let’s start in terms of adjusted completion percentage, which is completion percentage with the addition of WR drops, while removing from attempts throwaways, batted passes, spiked passes, and passes that fluttered after the QB was hit:
QB:..Comps-Att DropsTA BP SP HAT Drop%AdjComp%Kizer........ 213-363 21.. 9. 3.. 1..... 6.... 5.8% 68.0%
Mahomes 389-585 30 33. 3.. 1..... 2.... 5.0% 75.4%
Trubisky... 306-449 20.. 9. 4.. 1..... 1.... 4.5% 75.1%
Watson.... 388-580 32.. 8 13. 1..... 6.... 5.5% 76.1%
Webb....... 381-620 31 17. 5.. 0..... 6.... 5.0% 69.6%
Kessler..... 298-448 21 24 6.. 1...... 8.... 4.7% 78.2%
Let’s build on this a bit. Each quarterback’s statistics when they were under pressure. Pressure % relays how often they were pressured when dropping back, Sack % is obviously how often they were sacked when under pressure.
QB...... Att-Comp. Sk TA HAT Drop TD - INT Press%: Sk%: AdjComp%:
Kizer........ 39- -87 24... 7.. 6.... 5........ 6-3........ 29.3% 19.8% 59.5%
Mahomes 85- 193 25 33.. 2.... 3........ 7-5........ 36.3% 10.3% 56.1%
Trubisky... 47-- 88 18... 9.. 1.... 5........ 2-1........ 24.3% 15.3% 66.7%
Watson.... 64- 129 18.. 8.. 6.... 8........ 8-3........ 25.8% 11.1% 64.3%
Webb....... 51- 122 16 13.. 6.... 7........ 8-4........ 21.6% 11.5% 56.9%
Kessler..... 72- 136 38 17.. 8... 4......... 7-3........ 36.1% 21.0% 68.5%
Lastly, let’s take a look at how these guys throw the deep ball. Deep passes are defined as balls that traveled 20 yards or more in the air. Attempt % is exactly what it sounds like – how often they attempted a deep pass.
QB:.....Att/Comp Drop YdsTDINT Att% AdjComp%
Kizer........... 23-61. 1 ..769 ..9 2 16.8% 39.3%
Mahomes... 35-91. 5 1281 15 4 15.3% 44.0%
Trubisky..... 28-76.. 4 1026 12 1 16.9% 42.1%
Watson...... 37-90.. 5 1048 14 3 15.5% 46.7%
Webb........ 36-102. 3 1186 18 5 16.5% 38.2%
Kessler...... 16-56.. 5.. 577.. 7 1 12.5% 37.5%
So, what can we take away from this?- DeShone Kizer was helped the least by his receivers of the five QBs listed here. However, all of the QBs listed had below average drop rates in comparison to the rest of the class, with even Kizer coming in below average. Trubisky’s drop percentages are particularly low – fourth lowest in the class, in fact.
- Deshaun Watson’s 13 batted passes is tops in the class, with only two others (Rush, Higgins) having batted passes in the double digits (12 for each).
- Pat Mahomes’ 33 throwaways were highest in the class by seven to C.J. Beathard’s 26 – including those two, only four QBs had 20+ throwaway passes.
- Mahomes was also under pressure far more often than any of the other four QBs in this list, and it wasn’t even close. Despite this, Mahomes was only sacked once more than Kizer’s second highest total, despite being under pressure nearly double the number of dropbacks Kizer was.
- Trubisky has the 5th highest adjusted completion percentage in the class, while Watson comes in at 10th.
- Deep passing is certainly the weakest aspect of Trubisky’s passing charts, as he comes in right around average on deep passes at every level.
- Kizer’s average depth-of-target ranks out as 9th in the class at 11.0 yards. Trubisky comes in at second of these five, and twenty-third in the class, with 9.9 yards. Mahomes and Watson are 33rd, and 34th respectively, well below average.
- Pat Mahomes is the only QB in the class whose accuracy at all levels of the field (1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 40+) is above average in every category. On the reverse side, Davis Webb is the only QB whose accuracy falls below the average in every category.
- As for Kessler, his stats would stack up fairly favorably to this class. He’d rate out as second in the class for adjusted completion percentage, and third in adjusted completion percentage against pressure. However, his deep passing accuracy would be tied for 33rd in the class. Additionally, tying into the perpetual Kessler downfield argument, Kessler would be 5th to last in this class in terms of deep ball attempt percentage. Kessler's average depth of target (8.3 yards) is also behind all five of the QBs listed here, sitting 0.7 yards behind Davis Webb's 9.0. Food for thought.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Deep stat dive by same reddit stalwart that is keeping the Prospect Tracker I posted previously, VonJaeger. Cleaned up the charts as best I could. If need clearer look go here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/63c7ih/qb_comparison_by_the_numbers/
Just doodling tonight because I’m bored, so I’m going to post up some numbers to compare DeShone Kizer, Pat Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Davis Webb. For comparison, I also included Cody Kessler’s numbers when he declared. All numbers to follow are from PFF.
TA = Throwaways, BP = Batted Pass, SP = Spiked Pass, HAT = Hit As Thrown
Let’s start in terms of adjusted completion percentage, which is completion percentage with the addition of WR drops, while removing from attempts throwaways, batted passes, spiked passes, and passes that fluttered after the QB was hit:
QB:..Comps-Att DropsTA BP SP HAT Drop%AdjComp%Kizer........ 213-363 21.. 9. 3.. 1..... 6.... 5.8% 68.0%
Mahomes 389-585 30 33. 3.. 1..... 2.... 5.0% 75.4%
Trubisky... 306-449 20.. 9. 4.. 1..... 1.... 4.5% 75.1%
Watson.... 388-580 32.. 8 13. 1..... 6.... 5.5% 76.1%
Webb....... 381-620 31 17. 5.. 0..... 6.... 5.0% 69.6%
Kessler..... 298-448 21 24 6.. 1...... 8.... 4.7% 78.2%
Let’s build on this a bit. Each quarterback’s statistics when they were under pressure. Pressure % relays how often they were pressured when dropping back, Sack % is obviously how often they were sacked when under pressure.
QB...... Att-Comp. Sk TA HAT Drop TD - INT Press%: Sk%: AdjComp%:
Kizer........ 39- -87 24... 7.. 6.... 5........ 6-3........ 29.3% 19.8% 59.5%
Mahomes 85- 193 25 33.. 2.... 3........ 7-5........ 36.3% 10.3% 56.1%
Trubisky... 47-- 88 18... 9.. 1.... 5........ 2-1........ 24.3% 15.3% 66.7%
Watson.... 64- 129 18.. 8.. 6.... 8........ 8-3........ 25.8% 11.1% 64.3%
Webb....... 51- 122 16 13.. 6.... 7........ 8-4........ 21.6% 11.5% 56.9%
Kessler..... 72- 136 38 17.. 8... 4......... 7-3........ 36.1% 21.0% 68.5%
Lastly, let’s take a look at how these guys throw the deep ball. Deep passes are defined as balls that traveled 20 yards or more in the air. Attempt % is exactly what it sounds like – how often they attempted a deep pass.
QB:.....Att/Comp Drop YdsTDINT Att% AdjComp%
Kizer........... 23-61. 1 ..769 ..9 2 16.8% 39.3%
Mahomes... 35-91. 5 1281 15 4 15.3% 44.0%
Trubisky..... 28-76.. 4 1026 12 1 16.9% 42.1%
Watson...... 37-90.. 5 1048 14 3 15.5% 46.7%
Webb........ 36-102. 3 1186 18 5 16.5% 38.2%
Kessler...... 16-56.. 5.. 577.. 7 1 12.5% 37.5%
So, what can we take away from this?- DeShone Kizer was helped the least by his receivers of the five QBs listed here. However, all of the QBs listed had below average drop rates in comparison to the rest of the class, with even Kizer coming in below average. Trubisky’s drop percentages are particularly low – fourth lowest in the class, in fact.
- Deshaun Watson’s 13 batted passes is tops in the class, with only two others (Rush, Higgins) having batted passes in the double digits (12 for each).
- Pat Mahomes’ 33 throwaways were highest in the class by seven to C.J. Beathard’s 26 – including those two, only four QBs had 20+ throwaway passes.
- Mahomes was also under pressure far more often than any of the other four QBs in this list, and it wasn’t even close. Despite this, Mahomes was only sacked once more than Kizer’s second highest total, despite being under pressure nearly double the number of dropbacks Kizer was.
- Trubisky has the 5th highest adjusted completion percentage in the class, while Watson comes in at 10th.
- Deep passing is certainly the weakest aspect of Trubisky’s passing charts, as he comes in right around average on deep passes at every level.
- Kizer’s average depth-of-target ranks out as 9th in the class at 11.0 yards. Trubisky comes in at second of these five, and twenty-third in the class, with 9.9 yards. Mahomes and Watson are 33rd, and 34th respectively, well below average.
- Pat Mahomes is the only QB in the class whose accuracy at all levels of the field (1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 40+) is above average in every category. On the reverse side, Davis Webb is the only QB whose accuracy falls below the average in every category.
- As for Kessler, his stats would stack up fairly favorably to this class. He’d rate out as second in the class for adjusted completion percentage, and third in adjusted completion percentage against pressure. However, his deep passing accuracy would be tied for 33rd in the class. Additionally, tying into the perpetual Kessler downfield argument, Kessler would be 5th to last in this class in terms of deep ball attempt percentage. Kessler's average depth of target (8.3 yards) is also behind all five of the QBs listed here, sitting 0.7 yards behind Davis Webb's 9.0. Food for thought.
Deep stat dive by same reddit stalwart that is keeping the Prospect Tracker I posted previously, VonJaeger. Cleaned up the charts as best I could. If need clearer look go here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/63c7ih/qb_comparison_by_the_numbers/
Just doodling tonight because I’m bored, so I’m going to post up some numbers to compare DeShone Kizer, Pat Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Davis Webb. For comparison, I also included Cody Kessler’s numbers when he declared. All numbers to follow are from PFF.
TA = Throwaways, BP = Batted Pass, SP = Spiked Pass, HAT = Hit As Thrown
Let’s start in terms of adjusted completion percentage, which is completion percentage with the addition of WR drops, while removing from attempts throwaways, batted passes, spiked passes, and passes that fluttered after the QB was hit:
QB:..Comps-Att DropsTA BP SP HAT Drop%AdjComp%
Kizer........ 213-363 21.. 9. 3.. 1..... 6.... 5.8% 68.0%
Mahomes 389-585 30 33. 3.. 1..... 2.... 5.0% 75.4%
Trubisky... 306-449 20.. 9. 4.. 1..... 1.... 4.5% 75.1%
Watson.... 388-580 32.. 8 13. 1..... 6.... 5.5% 76.1%
Webb....... 381-620 31 17. 5.. 0..... 6.... 5.0% 69.6%
Kessler..... 298-448 21 24 6.. 1...... 8.... 4.7% 78.2%
Let’s build on this a bit. Each quarterback’s statistics when they were under pressure. Pressure % relays how often they were pressured when dropping back, Sack % is obviously how often they were sacked when under pressure.
QB...... Att-Comp. Sk TA HAT Drop TD - INT Press%: Sk%: AdjComp%:
Kizer........ 39- -87 24... 7.. 6.... 5........ 6-3........ 29.3% 19.8% 59.5%
Mahomes 85- 193 25 33.. 2.... 3........ 7-5........ 36.3% 10.3% 56.1%
Trubisky... 47-- 88 18... 9.. 1.... 5........ 2-1........ 24.3% 15.3% 66.7%
Watson.... 64- 129 18.. 8.. 6.... 8........ 8-3........ 25.8% 11.1% 64.3%
Webb....... 51- 122 16 13.. 6.... 7........ 8-4........ 21.6% 11.5% 56.9%
Kessler..... 72- 136 38 17.. 8... 4......... 7-3........ 36.1% 21.0% 68.5%
Lastly, let’s take a look at how these guys throw the deep ball. Deep passes are defined as balls that traveled 20 yards or more in the air. Attempt % is exactly what it sounds like – how often they attempted a deep pass.
QB:.....Att/Comp Drop YdsTDINT Att% AdjComp%
Kizer........... 23-61. 1 ..769 ..9 2 16.8% 39.3%
Mahomes... 35-91. 5 1281 15 4 15.3% 44.0%
Trubisky..... 28-76.. 4 1026 12 1 16.9% 42.1%
Watson...... 37-90.. 5 1048 14 3 15.5% 46.7%
Webb........ 36-102. 3 1186 18 5 16.5% 38.2%
Kessler...... 16-56.. 5.. 577.. 7 1 12.5% 37.5%
So, what can we take away from this?
- DeShone Kizer was helped the least by his receivers of the five QBs listed here. However, all of the QBs listed had below average drop rates in comparison to the rest of the class, with even Kizer coming in below average. Trubisky’s drop percentages are particularly low – fourth lowest in the class, in fact.
- Deshaun Watson’s 13 batted passes is tops in the class, with only two others (Rush, Higgins) having batted passes in the double digits (12 for each).
- Pat Mahomes’ 33 throwaways were highest in the class by seven to C.J. Beathard’s 26 – including those two, only four QBs had 20+ throwaway passes.
- Mahomes was also under pressure far more often than any of the other four QBs in this list, and it wasn’t even close. Despite this, Mahomes was only sacked once more than Kizer’s second highest total, despite being under pressure nearly double the number of dropbacks Kizer was.
- Trubisky has the 5th highest adjusted completion percentage in the class, while Watson comes in at 10th.
- Deep passing is certainly the weakest aspect of Trubisky’s passing charts, as he comes in right around average on deep passes at every level.
- Kizer’s average depth-of-target ranks out as 9th in the class at 11.0 yards. Trubisky comes in at second of these five, and twenty-third in the class, with 9.9 yards. Mahomes and Watson are 33rd, and 34th respectively, well below average.
- Pat Mahomes is the only QB in the class whose accuracy at all levels of the field (1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 40+) is above average in every category. On the reverse side, Davis Webb is the only QB whose accuracy falls below the average in every category.
- As for Kessler, his stats would stack up fairly favorably to this class. He’d rate out as second in the class for adjusted completion percentage, and third in adjusted completion percentage against pressure. However, his deep passing accuracy would be tied for 33rd in the class. Additionally, tying into the perpetual Kessler downfield argument, Kessler would be 5th to last in this class in terms of deep ball attempt percentage. Kessler's average depth of target (8.3 yards) is also behind all five of the QBs listed here, sitting 0.7 yards behind Davis Webb's 9.0. Food for thought.
Good stuff right here.....^^^^^^^^^^^^
Im trying to avoid getting too wrapped up with this years class of QB's......but, of course, the Kessler stuff is pretty interesting to me...
Id say that I agree.........he stacks up well in several categories, against this below average QB draft class.....and his performance, this season, matches up perfectly with the above info......high comp % with very short yardage gain and no deep game ......(dink and dunk extraordinaire)....
So.....based upon his comparable numbers and the lack of any obvious star in the draft pickins......Im gonna stick with my original assessment that riding Kessler(and the other guy...Hogan, was it?) is the way to go this year......
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Reasonable conclusion...
Here are some thoughts I posted at reddit...My first reaction is that a lot of the pieces fit with what I see in the candidates. Examples:
- It does not surprise me that Trubs suffered the fewest drops as he throws very receiver-friendly balls, i.e., a lot of floaters.
- Kizer's high drop total fits my view of the declining talent around him. I've said all along you have to look at 2015 to properly evaluate him.
- Watson's batted pass total is consistent with my memory of him throwing more short crosses than the other prospects.
- Mahomes leading both the pressures and the throwaways? No surprise from the scrambling king and closest prospect to JFF V2.0... on the field.
- Watson's deep ball percentage simply belies his arm-strength/ball-velocity concern. I keep looking, but still cannot see "49 mph" on tape.
- Kess... the man knows his limitations... or at least "feels" he is limited... and thus turns down downfield throwing windows that top QBs exploit. Can he change this? TBD...
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I'd like to see Kessler start this season. He really didn't look bad considering the awful situation he was thrown into.
I also think he's been under 4 different offensive coordinators in 4 years. Having a year in the NFL, a better line, and more weapons (depending on the draft) will give him some confidence for this year.
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"Floaters" = interceptions in the NFL. And we want Trubs why?
NFL Network "Good morning football" got Garrett and then Watson @ #12. They clearly think they got the better QB than Trubs who went to babyshanny in their game of best available @ 12 for the Browns. Off the board by 12 besides Garrett & Trubs were Thomas, Allen, Fornette, Hooker. Adams, Foster, Howard, Lattimore and Conley.
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"Floaters" = interceptions in the NFL. And we want Trubs why?
NFL Network "Good morning football" got Garrett and then Watson @ #12. They clearly think they got the better QB than Trubs who went to babyshanny in their game of best available @ 12 for the Browns. Off the board by 12 besides Garrett & Trubs were Thomas, Allen, Fornette, Hooker. Adams, Foster, Howard, Lattimore and Conley.
"Floaters" = interceptions in the NFL. And we want Trubs why?
In fairness they were mostly to wide open WRs in short-pass situations... but a few's delayed arrivals made the reception more "interesting" than it otherwise might have been.
Also thought more than a couple times, "That ain't working on a cold, windy, November day by the Lake."
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"Floaters" = interceptions in the NFL. And we want Trubs why?
NFL Network "Good morning football" got Garrett and then Watson @ #12. They clearly think they got the better QB than Trubs who went to babyshanny in their game of best available @ 12 for the Browns. Off the board by 12 besides Garrett & Trubs were Thomas, Allen, Fornette, Hooker. Adams, Foster, Howard, Lattimore and Conley.
"Floaters" = interceptions in the NFL. And we want Trubs why?
NFL Network "Good morning football" got Garrett and then Watson @ #12. They clearly think they got the better QB than Trubs who went to babyshanny in their game of best available @ 12 for the Browns. Off the board by 12 besides Garrett & Trubs were Thomas, Allen, Fornette, Hooker. Adams, Foster, Howard, Lattimore and Conley.
Three Ohio State DBs in the first 11? That would be a first I suspect. Three DBs from the same school in the first round anywhere I don't suspect has ever happened.
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I've been wondering just who in the hell Mahomes reminds me of. Not only his footwork, but his running style and his throwing motion/delivery.
Vince.
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I've been wondering just who in the hell Mahomes reminds me of. Not only his footwork, but his running style and his throwing motion/delivery.
Vince.
I've been wondering just who in the hell Mahomes reminds me of. Not only his footwork, but his running style and his throwing motion/delivery.
Vince.
lol... so naturally his tape makes me think of JFF... #neveragreeonaQB...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
In terms of (a lack) field vision and bailing out of the pocket early i agree.lol... so naturally his tape makes me think of JFF... #neveragreeonaQB...
I'm saying physically speaking. His drops, the half to 3/4 delivery flick motion and the long stride for tall guys. Looks almost the same.
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... plus his movement and "a playground feel" I get watching his tape. But any similarity vibe I get ends at the chalk line... so he's got that going for him.
Meanwhile speaking of Kess' deep ball...Browns quarterback Cody Kessler focused on improving deep ball in hopes of giving himself best shot to start with competition on way
By Nate Ulrich
Beacon Journal sports writerBEREA: Cody Kessler doesn’t know if he’ll be the starting quarterback of the Browns in the fall, but he has focused this offseason on going deep in hopes of positioning himself to secure the job.
Browns coach Hue Jackson stressed last season his desire for Kessler to improve as a vertical passer. So Kessler worked this offseason in Los Angeles with private quarterbacks coach Tom House on his arm strength and deep-ball accuracy.
“I definitely spent countless hours in the weight room and out on the field and really, really emphasized pushing the ball down field and different things with my mechanics,” Kessler said Tuesday during the second day of the team’s offseason workout program. “Obviously, it has to transition when the bullets start flying, but it’s helped me out a ton, and that’s something I really worked on and had a big emphasis on.
“I continue to work on the short and intermediate game and being comfortable in the pocket moving around, as well as stepping into the throw and getting my back foot under me so you can push the ball down the field more and getting everything you have into the throw instead of falling off.”
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Another interesting piece to the above article...
So Kessler is the only quarterback left on the team with significant experience in Jackson’s offense, and he took more initiative as a leader this offseason. He trained with Browns receivers Corey Coleman, Ricardo Louis and Jordan Payton in Dallas. He met with new Browns center J.C. Tretter in California to review Jackson’s playbook.
A lot of initiative centered around Kess, but also good to see other potentially key names committing their offseason time.
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