Where do the great ones come from....?
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So there is a higher hit rate (Pct/pk) in the second round than after the 10th in the first. Interesting.
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Ive been squashing some hall of fame #'s just for the fun of it....primarily curious where the best of the best come from.....so, here's a few stats that, to me, are pretty eye opening.....
First...the stat I like BEST of em all.....why?....cause people constantly pull out the Tom Brady card, like it's easy to tap a HOFer in the 6th.......Sooo, in the entire history of the NFL, how many HOFers have been selected in the 6th round?.........(drum roll please).........1....and that was in 1951......
Ok....there are 310 total members in the HOF, but 65 of them are non-players....therefore excluded.....making the total # of players 245......
And out of 245 players.....98 came from the first round......and 78 of the 98 were top 10 picks.....
THAT is a mind blowing stat, right there folks......
So....that leaves us 147 players left.......and 35 of those came in round 2......and 22 in round 3.....
Meaning...out of 245 total players in the HOF.....155 of them were top 3 rounds.....
Last 4 rounds account for an additional 83 players(with the 6th being the worst, by far) .....
Leaving the final group of 8th round or later(including UDFA) at 60 players....
The total rundown
Rd 1 - 98
Rd 2 - 35
Rd 3 - 22
Rd 4 - 9
Rd 5 - 7
Rd 6 - 1
Rd 7 - 9
Rd 8 - 3
Rd 9 - 5
Rd 10 - 2
....Ok, so there used to be upto 27 rounds....Im not listing them....so the rest = 50 players....
Ok....there are 310 total members in the HOF, but 65 of them are non-players....therefore excluded.....making the total # of players 245......
And out of 245 players.....98 came from the first round......and 78 of the 98 were top 10 picks.....
So....that leaves us 147 players left.......and 35 of those came in round 2......and 22 in round 3.....
Meaning...out of 245 total players in the HOF.....155 of them were top 3 rounds.....
Rd 1 - 98
Rd 2 - 35
Rd 3 - 22
Rd 4 - 9
Rd 5 - 7
Rd 6 - 1
Wow! Thanks for the research you put into that Mud. Great job! It gives us plenty to think about for this draft with 2 1st rounders,2 second rounders and a pick at the top of round 3...
I got a feeling we're drafting a QB in round 1 because the numbers above support doing it a lot of times (some teams have just had better luck with the timing of their pick of the litter choices/supply over the years). This FO turned down the opportunity to take a QB early last year so now the pressure for them to find/draft their answer at QB is turned up a notch while they hold the pick of every litter.
We could be looking at the next Philadelphia-esque version of choosing Donovan McNabb over Ricky Williams (who was everybody in Philly's version of can't miss football messiah) in going for either Mitch L/DeShaun Watson over Myles Garrett at #1 overall. They only called him Boo while the thought of brotherly love was DOA. Ironically, where is the draft this year?
Meanwhile, Mike Ditka went all kinds of Ghoolie on Ricky Williams so he could spend his draft playing golf, smoking cigars and laughing at anyone that wasted time on research. Entertaining as Hell but there was no Big Easy to follow. Inevitably, Ricky ended up on prozac while McNabb gave CPR to a franchise that was almost pronounced dead at the end of 98. McNabb led that franchise to the playoffs almost every year from 2000 to 2010 with 5 NFC Championship appearances (1 NFC Championship Victory) and he was pretty much the NFC mirror view of Peyton Manning when it came time to decide on who was the Conference MVP. Nobody saw that coming if they are being honest about it. How could they? The right HC/GM (same guy) had the WCO waiting for this QB coming out of an unconventional Veer Option offense (similar to the one Favre played in at So Miss before the WCO was an ideal fit). Andy Reid had the grapefruits in groin to pull off that unpopular decision in a place that needs jail cells and a court room in its stadium that can seat up to 65,000 liquored up Ghoolies.
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Udfas tend to do better than 4th to 7th rounders bc they get to pick the team that suits them best. Their agents and managers work to put them in the best situation possible. Rather than being picked by a team that hasnt done the homework they did with their first 3 picks.
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Udfas tend to do better than 4th to 7th rounders bc they get to pick the team that suits them best. Their agents and managers work to put them in the best situation possible. Rather than being picked by a team that hasnt done the homework they did with their first 3 picks.
Udfas tend to do better than 4th to 7th rounders bc they get to pick the team that suits them best. Their agents and managers work to put them in the best situation possible. Rather than being picked by a team that hasnt done the homework they did with their first 3 picks.
That's why I hope Ricky Seals-Jones goes UFA with the Browns and makes the PS so they can make a real TE out him where he should have played his last two years in college.
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@ghoolie said:
Mud, dude, with all due respect. I have been barking this for years.
Welcome to the club..
1) There is no guarantee at any position in the draft
2) The highest probability of getting a great player comes in the 1st round.
My mantra as well....
Accordingly, all this bullshit of amassing picks? As I told you, scientifically, statistically, logically, stockpiling shit picks, 3 - 7th, does not increase your chances of adding great, or even good players. Amassing 2nd rounders is self-deprecating because 1 first round gamble is better than 3 2nd round gambles.
If the Browns want to change their fortunes, trading down for a useless coward cocksucker like Coleman, is not going to gain ground on the better teams.
Again.....what Ive been saying all along......the trade back, passing on 2 future HOFers AND then the selection of Coleman made my head explode....it felt terrible then and still does,,,,,
If the Browns want to improve, the first round is where it happens. Everything else is a longer and longer shot.
#1 Trubisky
#12 The big fucking Clemson WR
Cant agree with this tho....Trubisky is dumber than my dog and not the answer.....if we pick him, then it IS the Browns making yet another stupid QB pick(see what I did there?)...he will be on the next line behind the Quinns, Weedones and Manziels of our past.....
And, I do like Williams.....just dont want ANOTHER first round WR.....Coleman filled my quota.....
Trade Joe Thomas and #33 to get a higher #1
Trade the 2018 #1, and a 2,4 and 4 to get another #1 in 2017
Id trade next years first for the right guy.....but, lets remember, that next years first is likely to be a top 5 pick.....so, lets not burn it on a #20ish player.....Plus, since Trubisky sucks royally, next years pick may end up being the answer to our QB issue .....
Depending on the positions of the 2 new #1, Get a Rangey LB, get your edge rusher.
That's how you make a difference, both in the way people around the nation view your franchise, and, on the field where you just added 4 potential mother fuckers.
Im down to drafting potential muther fuckers.....just a different group than you're looking at.......
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Udfas tend to do better than 4th to 7th rounders bc they get to pick the team that suits them best. Their agents and managers work to put them in the best situation possible. Rather than being picked by a team that hasnt done the homework they did with their first 3 picks.
That's why I hope Ricky Seals-Jones goes UFA with the Browns and makes the PS so they can make a real TE out him where he should have played his last two years in college.
That's why I hope Ricky Seals-Jones goes UFA with the Browns and makes the PS so they can make a real TE out him where he should have played his last two years in college.
Take the guy that can't block as an H-back and make him a TE? How's that a good idea?
I don't think the kid can play.
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We're not drafting him. We're seeing if he can be something different on the PS. Cost-nothin' for former best player in Texas HS football.
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To be sure, he also has stone hands and is slow.
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Here is some data on the RBs that have been drafted that have made the HOF:
34 RBs/HBs/FBs are in HOF
27 of them were First round picks.
2 were second round picks....John Henry Johnson/Jim Taylor
1 was a 3rd round pick...Curtis Martin
1 was an 8th round pick....Leroy Kelley
1 was a 9th round pick....old timer Tony Canadeo
2 were Free agents....signed by the AAFC....Marion Motley and Joe Perry
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Here is the data for WRs/TEs/Flankers/Split Ends by draft round:
1st: 14
2d: 4
3rd: 1
4th: 5
5th: 1
7th: 1
8th: 1
9th: 1
10th: 1
11th: 1
12th: 1
20th: 1 (Raymond Berry)
Only 1 person in HOF as a player was drafted lower than Berry: Roosevelt Brown 27th round.
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Here is the data for WRs/TEs/Flankers/Split Ends by draft round:
1st: 14 <--- obviously the cream of the crop in college and NFL
2d: 4
3rd: 1
4th: 5 <--- some positions might generally get picked lower than others, QB, DE, and used to be RB picked ahead of others
Numbers and stats can be fun.
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Speaking of "great ones"... hopefully this signals the peek of silly season...
Joe Thomas: Denver Broncos New Left Tackle?
http://predominantlyorange.com/2017/04/12/joe-thomas-broncos-left-tackle/It's kinda like the buzzards returning to Hinckley/Whip's Ledges... happens every year.
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If Cleveland was willing to make the move for a late first round pick two years ago, would they consider it this year as part of a deal for the 20th overall pick? I think so.
Hello! McFly! Is anybody home? Two years ago you would have been dealing with the discredited Ray Farmer. Now there is a new bunch running the Browns that...hopefully...aren't so stupid.
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