Mel Kiper says

[Zombo]

@the-gipper said:

I would gladly take  Bortles and Hyde over  Gilbert and Johnny.

Wouldn't we all.

Point is he had Manziel going #1 and and he landed #22. Things change ...

Zombo

[The Gipper]

Zombo said:

Wouldn't we all.

Point is he had Manziel going #1 and and he landed #22. Things change ...

Zombo

Oh yea.   And I think he probably had Carson Wentz going #22 and he went #2. Things change!

[The Gipper]

I note that in 2015 Kiper, in his first mock draft had  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota going 1 and 2....and that is exactly how they went.

And see 2016:

1. Tennessee Titans

*Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio St.

Getting the best defensive lineman in any draft really transcends need. Everyteam wants great D-linemen, and Bosa has the upside of a star. He's a dominant pass-rusher who piled up 51.0 tackles for loss over three seasons despite running into a steady supply of double-teams, and he's also outstanding against the run. You can move him around on the line at will. The son of a former first-round pick, he comes in ready to contribute.

2. Cleveland Browns

*Jared Goff, QB, Cal

[Zombo]

@the-gipper said:

Oh yea.   And I think he probably had Carson Wentz going #22 and he went #2. Things change!

He did indeed have Wentz at #22

And his picks for the Browns have been WAY to logical. His job is to predict what the teams are going to do and he is failing ... show me someone that can wrap their heads around the Browns picks in advance and I'll be impressed

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607801-mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2016-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-1st-mock

[The Gipper]

In 2017.....Kiper had   Garrett and Trubisky going in the first two picks....and that is just what happened.

He also had DeShaun Watson going #10....and I think that was right on as well.  #10 or #12.

Note...it was 12.

[The Gipper]

Zombo said:

He did indeed have Wentz at #22

And his picks for the Browns have been WAY to logical. His job is to predict what the teams are going to do and he is failing ... show me someone that can wrap their heads around the Browns picks in advance and I'll be impressed

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607801-mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2016-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-1st-mock

Well.....I guess the one thing that is totally unpredictable are all the trades that happen.  And the Browns have been so active there. 

So....riddle me this:     We traded away the #12 draft pick to Houston.  They got who?  Peppers in the trade down?  I think that is it.   And what are they gonna get at #4?

Do we think that Peppers and whatever we get this year are going to be better than getting DeShaun Watson?   Not so far  (notwithstanding Watson's injury)

[tiamat63]

I don't think anyone, including myself, has an issue with having the mock order mixed up from time to time so long as you have the right idea on which round/bracket the talent falls.

What I do take issue with is seeing someone, like a Johnny Manziel, yet putting him in your top 3 rounds on your big board.     

[Zombo]

@the-gipper said:

Well.....I guess the one thing that is totally unpredictable are all the trades that happen.  And the Browns have been so active there. 

So....riddle me this:     We traded away the #12 draft pick to Houston.  They got who?  Peppers in the trade down?  I think that is it.   And what are they gonna get at #4?

Do we think that Peppers and whatever we get this year are going to be better than getting DeShaun Watson?   Not so far  (notwithstanding Watson's injury)

Again ... anyone that figure out the Browns were doing at the top of the draft in the last ten years, let me now. Garrett looks like he's going to be a good pick but the picks and moves where they actually had to think is mind-boggling.

Zombo

[The Gipper]

Zombo said:

Again ... anyone that figure out the Browns were doing at the top of the draft in the last ten years, let me now. Garrett looks like he's going to be a good pick but the picks and moves where they actually had to think is mind-boggling.

Zombo

You mean to tell me that you cannot make any sense out of all this:

2008  Traded away  picks in first 3 rounds.   First pick Rd. 4: Beau Bell

2009: Round 1: Alex Mack   Rd 2:  Brian Robiskie, Mohammed Massaquoi, David Veikune

2010: Round 1:  Joe Haden  Round 2: TJ Ward

2011: Round 1  Phil Taylor ...after trade down (could have had Julio Jones)  Rd 2 Jaball Sheard

2012:  Round 1: Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden.  Rd 2  Mitchell Schwartz

2013 Round 1: Barkevious Mingo  (no 2d rounder)

2014 Round 1: Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manzeil  Rd. 2 Joel Bitonio

2015 Round 1: Danny Shelton, Cameron Erving  Rd 2  Nate Orchard

2016 Round 1: Corey Coleman  Rd 2   Emmanual Ogbah

2017 Round 1:  Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, David Njoku,  Round 2 DeShone Kizer.

So....lets look at this by position:

QB: Weeden, Johnny, Kizer.....(and if we went back one year would include Quinn)    A BIG swing and a miss

RB:  Trent....SWING and a Miss

WR: Robo, MoMass, Colemen.   so far  SWING and a miss

TE:  Njoku.....very iffy.  Maybe a bunt hit.

OL.  Mack, Schwartz, Bito, and Erving.   Doubles on 3 out of 4.

DL: Taylor, Sheard, Mingo, Shelton, Ogbah, Garrett.    SWING and a miss on the first few.  Maybe a  couple of singles in their at best.

LB:  Veikune, Orchard:   SWING and a miss so far.

DBs: Haden, Ward.    A couple of solid doubles, maybe a triple with Joe for a time.

So...what I glean is that the Browns scored a run or two at DB and OL...and otherwise.....they look like the Durham Bulls up agains Nolan Ryan.

[hoorta]

@westside-steve said:

Josh Allen? Really?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22134110/nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order

Yes it's one of those bullshyt ESPN things that makes you join to read the whole thing but number one was surprising enough.

I know Cal loves him some Josh Allen. If he had Rosen or Darnold's accuracy, he'd be a slam dunk #1 overall. Unfortunately, Mel has overlooked at this point in time Allen doesn't- and I have doubts he ever will. 

And to mock Mel- I will never forget this one...  "mmmmuuuusssstttt draft Hart Lee Dykes". first round pick, shades of Corey Coleman.    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DykeHa00.htm

[hoorta]

Zombo said:

Here is how well Kiper did with his mock draft 1.0 in 2014:

1. QB, Johnny Manziel - Houston

2. OT, Jake Matthews - St. Louis via Wash

3. DE, Jadeveon Clowney - Jax

4. QB, Blake Bortles - Cleveland

5. WR, Sammy Watkins - Oakland

6. OLB, Anthony Barr - Atlanta

7. OLB, Khalil Mack - Tampa Bay

8. QB, Teddy Twatwater - Minnesota

I truncated it to save space Z, Mel did hit on a lot of his first round picks- just not in the order they were taken. Of course you always have to take into account there's going to be around 25- 30% first rounders that don't live up to their draft status, and another 25-30% that are flat out busts. Of course the Browns have turned picking the first round losers into an art form.   

Thanks to Gip's research in the past 10 years we've had two hits in the first round, a maybe in Shelton, a very iffy Coleman, and hopein' Garrett can stay healthy. that gets you  0-16.  

[Bob806]

@westside-steve said:

Frankly I think Rosen is probably the best of the quarterbacks but I too worried about his attitude.

WSS

Bingo, I'd pass on him. Maybe someone offers a Herschel Walker load of picks to Dorsey and he takes it (I do hate trade downs, for the record).

Hey, the Browns did do a decent job last year of not tipping their hand on Garrett. I think these rumors are a great PR thing for the NFL Draft, nothing else. 

[Tour2ma]

@tiamat63 said:

I realize Kiper isn't necessarily projecting talent so much as he's projecting Dorsey('s decisions).

And therein lies the fallacy of mocks... where talent evaluation collides with divining the judgement of others.

[TexasAg1969]

Dak would have been our QB replacing the errant JM, Henry would have been our big back in the redzone that we specialize in screwing up, Foster our best LB and Tyler Lockett would be returning KO/Punts and playing slot.Plus I'd keep Garrett.

We would not have had Coleman, Kessler, or Hogan.

And in 2018 we damn sure would not be picking Allen, especially #1 overall. Maybe 7th round at best, but only if he can kick.

[MLD Woody]

@the-gipper said:

Well, right....Again....I think that I ...and maybe you, could do about as accurate a job at doing a mock draft as they do.....if we were armed with the information they have.  The key for them is that they compiled the information.

I would expect them to hate doing mock drafts...trying to predict what unpredictable NFL teams may do.    They like to say:  Here are the prospect rankings....in reality...NFL teams should just draft based on my rankings...combined perhaps with a recognition of team needs.  

And you know...that is basically what WE do here with our annual mock draft.   I don't know about you or others but I will take, say, a couple of the draft prospect ranking sites...like Kiper/McShay...or CBS or Walter etc.  And I will print those out and also look up sites about what the Browns need (or have an idea of my own what they need)....and go on that, essentially trying to take the best player available at that position or those positions that the services say are available. 

I mean...honestly....lets face it....you and I COULD have done better drafting players a few of these years than the Browns FO had done.

Fair to say?

If I were drafting...we may have had Khalil Mack here.   Or Sammy Watkins.   Maybe Bosa or Wentz or Elliott.

Right... Because in hindsight everyone could have drafted the best players...

[gumby73]

Mel-dock meets his maker at Espn Mock Draft Central... 

  OK. I feel better .... end of April..(let this Mock madness continue)  It just won't matter 

[The Gipper]

@mld-woody said:

Right... Because in hindsight everyone could have drafted the best players...

Some of these were not hindsight for me. I was in Camp Mack and Camp Bosa at the time.  You damn well know that's true.

[runyon27]

@hoorta said:

I know Cal loves him some Josh Allen. If he had Rosen or Darnold's accuracy, he'd be a slam dunk #1 overall. Unfortunately, Mel has overlooked at this point in time Allen doesn't- and I have doubts he ever will. 

And to mock Mel- I will never forget this one...  "mmmmuuuusssstttt draft Hart Lee Dykes". first round pick, shades of Corey Coleman.    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DykeHa00.htm

I have the same concerns you do about Allen, how much of his accuracy issues are him versus the receivers he has and the protection he gets. If his 56% is what it really is, we should pass.

[Orion]

@westside-steve said:

Josh Allen? Really?

He DID say that it's VERY early in the process.  

The senior bowl could change Mel's draft board.  The Combine.  Free Agency could theoretically take QB right off our draft board.  And even Joe Thomas could put a dent in the board.

BTW, I feel pretty sure that JT will let the Browns know his intentions before FA.

[syd]

@orion said:

He DID say that it's VERY early in the process.  

The senior bowl could change Mel's draft board.  The Combine.  Free Agency could theoretically take QB right off our draft board.  And even Joe Thomas could put a dent in the board.

BTW, I feel pretty sure that JT will let the Browns know his intentions before FA.

as i said in a different thread I believe JT will finish out his contract Unless his back and knee tell him otherwise