Greg Cosell Breaks Down Top 2018 QBs

[SD_Tom]

@the-gipper said:

It wasn't such a noodle are that he couldn't get the following numbers over 18 years out of it:

Passing

 

 

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
Career				246	239	124-109-6	3686	6467	57.0	47003	342	5.3	266	4.1	89	7.3	6.5	12.8	191.1	80.4	274	2337	6.63	5.87	4.1	29	33	236
13 yrs	MIN			177	170	91-73-6	2635	4569	57.7	33098	239	5.2	194	4.2	89	7.2	6.4	12.6	187.0	80.1	175	1567	5.96	5.28	6.2	19	19	161
5 yrs	NYG			69	69	33-36-0	1051	1898	55.4	13905	103	5.4	72	3.8	84	7.3	6.7	13.2	201.5	81.0	99	770	5.84	5.23	7.7	10	14	75
1961	21	MIN	QB	10	14	10	2-8-0	157	280	56.1	1997	18	6.4	17	6.1	71	7.1	5.7	12.7	142.6	74.7								11
1962	22	MIN	QB	10	14	14	2-11-1	163	329	49.5	2595	22	6.7	25	7.6	89	7.9	5.8	15.9	185.4	66.9								10
1963	23	MIN	QB	10	14	13	4-8-1	170	297	57.2	2311	15	5.1	15	5.1	67	7.8	6.5	13.6	165.1	78.0						2	2	10
1964*	24	MIN	QB	10	14	14	8-5-1	171	306	55.9	2506	22	7.2	11	3.6	64	8.2	8.0	14.7	179.0	91.8						3	3	14
1965*	25	MIN	QB	10	14	14	7-7-0	171	329	52.0	2609	19	5.8	11	3.3	72	7.9	7.6	15.3	186.4	83.8						2	2	15
1966	26	MIN	QB	10	14	12	4-7-1	192	358	53.6	2561	17	4.7	16	4.5	68	7.2	6.1	13.3	182.9	73.8						2	1	12
1967*	27	NYG	QB	10	14	14	7-7-0	204	377	54.1	3088	29	7.7	19	5.0	70	8.2	7.5	15.1	220.6	85.9						2	2	19
1968*	28	NYG	QB	10	14	14	7-7-0	182	337	54.0	2555	21	6.2	12	3.6	84	7.6	7.2	14.0	182.5	84.6						1	2	16
1969*	29	NYG	QB	10	14	14	6-8-0	220	409	53.8	2918	23	5.6	8	2.0	65	7.1	7.4	13.3	208.4	87.2	36	289	5.91	6.13	8.1	4	4	14
1970*	30	NYG	QB	10	14	14	9-5-0	219	389	56.3	2777	19	4.9	12	3.1	59	7.1	6.7	12.7	198.4	82.2	36	249	5.95	5.57	8.5	2	5	17
1971	31	NYG	QB	10	13	13	4-9-0	226	386	58.5	2567	11	2.8	21	5.4	81	6.7	4.8	11.4	197.5	65.4	27	232	5.65	3.90	6.5	1	1	9
1972	32	MIN	QB	10	14	14	7-7-0	215	378	56.9	2651	18	4.8	13	3.4	76	7.0	6.4	12.3	189.4	80.2	26	203	6.06	5.50	6.4	4	3	12
1973	33	MIN	QB	10	14	14	12-2-0	169	274	61.7	2113	15	5.5	7	2.6	54	7.7	7.7	12.5	150.9	93.2	31	270	6.04	5.99	10.2			14
1974*	34	MIN	QB	10	13	13	9-4-0	199	351	56.7	2598	17	4.8	12	3.4	80	7.4	6.8	13.1	199.8	82.1	17	142	6.67	6.13	4.6	1	1	15
1975*+	35	MIN	QB	10	14	14	12-2-0	273	425	64.2	2994	25	5.9	13	3.1	46	7.0	6.8	11.0	213.9	91.8	27	245	6.08	5.89	6.0	1	1	16
1976*	36	MIN	QB	10	13	13	10-2-1	255	412	61.9	2961	17	4.1	8	1.9	56	7.2	7.1	11.6	227.8	89.3	25	221	6.27	6.22	5.7	1	3	14
1977	37	MIN	QB	10	9	9	6-3-0	155	258	60.1	1734	9	3.5	14	5.4	59	6.7	5.0	11.2	192.7	69.2	22	232	5.36	3.76	7.9	1	2	7
1978	38	MIN	QB	10	16	16	8-7-1	345	572	60.3	3468	25	4.4	32	5.6	58	6.1	4.4	10.1	216.8	68.9	27	254	5.37	3.80	4.5	2	1	11

Good enough for 11th all time in yards  (he played under the OLD rules....and was the all time leader for a number of years)

And 6th all time in TD passes.

I meant watson.  That was the knock on him in the draft.  

[The Gipper]

  IOW, Gipper , it's easy to be wrong. Most all of us will be. That's the way it goes. You just think you are always right. A LOT of "experts" are going to be wrong, that is how it is every year. If Denver gets Allen, he will go on to be ELWAY 2.0.

I don't think I am always right.....it just happens to turn out that way!!

Denver unlikely to go after 

[Tour2ma]

@flugel said:

Here's a link to a 13 minute video where Nathan Zegura gets Greg Cosell to break down the top rated QBs headed for the 2018 draft from www.clevelandbrowns.com:

http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/media-center/videos/Greg-Cosell-breaks-down-QBs-in-the-2018-draft-class/e5e7dc40-a2e5-485b-bb4a-5afeff9829ff

I like to hear to what he's looking for in particular.  And somewhere around the 12 minute 50 sec mark or so - he reveals who he would take if pressed to do so. If you watch it, I'm interested in hearing what you thought or who you might be interested in (and you can do a 1A and 1B).

Obviously Greg Cosell is a very smart man...

Simplest way to put it is that Rosen has the highest floor and a ceiling that is indistinguishable from any of the other top prospects. That's why he is IMO the clear pick. I wish I thought we were going to take him #1 overall.

After some gap follows Mayfield on my QB Board. Football-wise I liked everything he showed on tape except an ability to go thru progressions. Just saw a lot of pre-snap determining where he was going to look and he stayed locked on that choice until it either came open or it was time to bail out of the pocket. I think this is going to be our choice.

Considering Darnold in the top half of Round 1 is a joke. Darnold is so mechanically flawed.

Allen? Dumb as a bag of rocks. A perfect choice at #22...

[Dutch Oven]

@calfoxwc said:

If Denver gets Allen, he will go on to become ELWAY 2.0. 

I know Tim Tebow and Paxton Lynch really set the NFL on fire. 

[mjp28]

@tour2ma said:

Obviously Greg Cosell is a very smart man...

Simplest way to put it is that Rosen has the highest floor and a ceiling that is indistinguishable from any of the other top prospects. That's why he is IMO the clear pick. I wish I thought we were going to take him #1 overall.

After some gap follows Mayfield on my QB Board. Football-wise I liked everything he showed on tape except an ability to go thru progressions. Just saw a lot of pre-snap determining where he was going to look and he stayed locked on that choice until it either came open or it was time to bail out of the pocket. I think this is going to be our choice.

Considering Darnold in the top half of Round 1 is a joke. Darnold is so mechanically flawed.

Allen? Dumb as a bag of rocks. A perfect choice at #22...

I've noticed more of this "my guy is better than your guy" stuff this year than in any year I can remember. 

And two special awards this year 1. Mr. Irrelevant and 2. Mr. 22, d'oh sorry about that.   

[Tour2ma]

@mjp28 said:

I've noticed more of this "my guy is better than your guy" stuff this year than in any year I can remember. 

And two special awards this year 1. Mr. Irrelevant and 2. Mr. 22, d'oh sorry about that.   

Have you tried Genko Biloba? Seriously... it's like this every year. It's just that this year there are four names in the debate... five if you count Gip's misguided obsession with Mason Rudolph.

As for my comment on Allen. That was the word coming out of the White Board sessions at the Combine.

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Have you tried Genko Biloba? Seriously... it's like this every year. It's just that this year there are four names in the debate... five if you count Gip's misguided obsession with Mason Rudolph.

As for my comment on Allen. That was the word coming out of the White Board sessions at the Combine.

You are the misguided one of you think it is an obsession.   All I have said is that his college numbers/stats are as good or better than the others sve Mayfield....and that he could be in the mix to actually turn out to be one of the better QBs to come out of this class in the long run.

It is far less than your obsession with Rosen.......or Cal's  obsession with Allen/hate for Rosen....or certainly PoGs obsession with Barkley. 

[The Gipper]

Let's face it......it is actually somewhat rare that the first QB taken becomes the best QB....and sometimes 2d/3rd rounders...or the 5th or 6th QBs taken become the better QBs of a draft class.    Here since 2005:

2005  Best QB was the 2d taken with pick #24....Rodgers   #1 OK.....Alex Smith...but not the best

2006 Best QB take was the 3rd one taken: Jay Cutler...if you call him good.   Better than Vince Young and Matt Leinert taken over him anyway

2007....Not a decent QB taken at all that year.   But 6 were taken in rounds 1-3  (Russell/Quinn/Kolb/Beck etc.)

2008  This was one year when the top two QBs taken turned out to be the best:   Matt Ryan #3  Flacco #18

2009  This was a year when the Top taken was the best:  Stafford (over the likes of Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman)

2010  This year was a year when the Top QB take was the best....but he has NOT been that good:    Sam Bradford. (Tebow/Clausen/McCoy next ones picked)

2011  Best was taken #1...Newton.  But...second rounders Dalton and Kaepernik  much better than 1st rounders like Locker, Gabbert, Ponder.  Even 6th rounder Tyrod Taylor better.

2012 This is a year where the #1 QB taken could arguably be said to be the best....or, there is a counter argument.   Luck #1....but note, the next taken: RGII, Tannehill, Weeden, Osweiler.....all surpassed by guys taken below them:   Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kurt Cousins.

2013  Another shite class for QBs....only 3 taken in first 3 rounds...and none any good:  EJ Manual, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon  Nobody after that. (unless you include Landry Jones)

2014 Semi-close call:  Bortles top QB taken with #3 pick.....But 2d rounders   Derek Carr and Jimmy G.....by many now considered better.  Certainly better than Johnny Fuhucking Football and Teddy Twatwater to date.  And McCarron taken in round 5...but who knows if he is any good.

2015  The Top two picks were Winston and Mariota....and they to date are the best of this class

2016  Actually....the 8th   QB taken has had the best career numbers so far.  Dak Prescott.    Goff and Wentz though did some catching up in their sophomore years.  Who knows about the future.  Dak though looking far better than the likes of Cody Kessler,  Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, Paxton Lynch, Jacoby Brissett....all taken above him.

2017   For what its worth....Mitch Trubisky DID have the best final numbers of all rookie QBs.    But, of course, Watson only played in 7 games....and would have almost certainly been the best.   But...HEY.....Kizer DID have the most yards passing of all rookie QBs..by a wide margin actually.  But, he also threw as many interceptions just about as the rest of the rookie QB class combined.   Watson threw for 19 TDs in 7 games....Kizer threw 11 in 15 games. 

So...bottom line.....likely in far less than half the years has the Top QB drafted turned out to be the best.  Often as not it has been someone taken not in round 1.

[SissyBoyFloyd]

1.  Chubb

4.  Fitzpatrick/Barkley/Nelson

Now you have 2 great players, no worries, no pressure, just huge improvement to your team.  No concern that you might have made wrong choice and struck out again with top picks.  You go home and sleep well at end of Day 1 of the draft.

Take best QB out of Rudolph, Jackson, White, Falk, Lauletta, and let them learn behind your starter.  If they fail to materialize, you repeat process in a year or two, while building the very best team based on continuing taking BPA with every pick, instead of gambling on question mark QBs.  Use you 2nd or 3rd round picks to gamble on QBs, not high first rounders on the likes in this draft.  None of these top 4 would be considered top picks in any other year in my opinion.  As pointed out already, the good starting QBs along with OL, RB, WR can all be had in 2nd-4th rounds.

[The Gipper]

@sissyboyfloyd said:

1.  Chubb

4.  Fitzpatrick/Barkley/Nelson

Now you have 2 great players, no worries, no pressure, just huge improvement to your team.  No concern that you might have made wrong choice and struck out again with top picks.  You go home and sleep well at end of Day 1 of the draft.

Take best QB out of Rudolph, Jackson, White, Falk, Lauletta, and let them learn behind your starter.  If they fail to materialize, you repeat process in a year or two, while building the very best team based on continuing taking BPA with every pick, instead of gambling on question mark QBs.  Use you 2nd or 3rd round picks to gamble on QBs, not high first rounders on the likes in this draft.  None of these top 4 would be considered top picks in any other year in my opinion.  As pointed out already, the good starting QBs along with OL, RB, WR can all be had in 2nd-4th rounds.

As much as you would think so....this is NOT outside the realm of possibility.....though the Browns would be skewered...for...again, not getting their perceived franchise QBOTF.

[Flugel]

@canton-dawg said:

Same here.

I wanted Rosen at #1 until I found out about the concussions.

Now, I'm all in on Baker Mayfield at #1.

I've got Mayfield as my fave this week .

FWIW, all of the top QBs have things to be concerned about:

With Darnold, it's not just the mechanics that give me the heebees. I've seen a bunch of replays where he's holding the ball knee trying to get out of the pocket prior to defenders slapping it out of his hands. At what point does the repetitive trend = practice made perfect/instinct?   The ole saying the NFL will just coach that bad habit away at the more challenging level doesn't always unfold as promised.

Allen looks like a Foxworthy punchline when he's playing against corners and pass rushers.  That's why he threw more TD passes at the Combine than he did his entire 2017 season.   But hold on a second - can you believe HE LOVES FOOTBALL?  That changes everything   Now, the same John Elway that sandwiched in excessive adoration for Paxton Lynch in between falling for Brock Osweiler twice - is feeling some groinal warming for thos 1 QB that LOVES football. If we combined Brandon Weeden's brain with Josh Allen's we'd have a sum of 3 brain cells. Now for the bad news, 2's company - 3's a crowd.  Marijuana is legal in Colorado and John Elway has been smoking it in the 2018 version of Rocky Mountain High.  So far, Peyton Manning is the only QB Elway got right. 

Rosen has a lot of great attributes for a QB like IQ in particular as well as the ideal mechanics and other assets Cosell spoke highly of.  That said, the concussion volume doesn't go away and I worry about his durability when I look at how skinny his upper body is. I've moved him ahead of Darnold and just behind Mayfield.

Mayfield doesn't move like Russell Wilson at all IMO.  His elusiveness is from a great pocket presence that comes from his pre-snap vision/intellect.  BUT, the NFL has a way of challenging QBs his height.  People tend to forget nothing came easy to Drew Brees in his 1st 3 NFL seasons or SD wouldn't have drafted a QB 1st overall heading into his 4th year.  Good thing Philip Rivers held out the length of training camp or Brees might not have made his 1st Pro Bowl with a 12-4 record in 2004. I remember the concern was how good he'd see taking snaps from Center.  Speaking of 2004, SD finally drafted a shot gun Center Nick Hardwick from Purdue (same program Brees played in) and Brees looked way more comfortable with his pre-snap reads.  Just my opinion but I think that was the biggest difference maker. I think we can do something similar for Baker if necessary.

[hoorta]

@tour2ma said:

Obviously Greg Cosell is a very smart man...

Simplest way to put it is that Rosen has the highest floor and a ceiling that is indistinguishable from any of the other top prospects. That's why he is IMO the clear pick. I wish I thought we were going to take him #1 overall.

After some gap follows Mayfield on my QB Board. Football-wise I liked everything he showed on tape except an ability to go thru progressions. Just saw a lot of pre-snap determining where he was going to look and he stayed locked on that choice until it either came open or it was time to bail out of the pocket. I think this is going to be our choice.

Considering Darnold in the top half of Round 1 is a joke. Darnold is so mechanically flawed.

Allen? Dumb as a bag of rocks. A perfect choice at #22...

Tour- if Rosen didn't already have two concussions, he'd be at the top of my board also. You probably know I've been sold on Mayfield as Brees II for a long time...  

@sissyboyfloyd said:

1.  Chubb

4.  Fitzpatrick/Barkley/Nelson

Now you have 2 great players, no worries, no pressure, just huge improvement to your team.  No concern that you might have made wrong choice and struck out again with top picks.  You go home and sleep well at end of Day 1 of the draft.

Take best QB out of Rudolph, Jackson, White, Falk, Lauletta, and let them learn behind your starter.  If they fail to materialize, you repeat process in a year or two, while building the very best team based on continuing taking BPA with every pick, instead of gambling on question mark QBs.  Use you 2nd or 3rd round picks to gamble on QBs, not high first rounders on the likes in this draft.  None of these top 4 would be considered top picks in any other year in my opinion.  As pointed out already, the good starting QBs along with OL, RB, WR can all be had in 2nd-4th rounds.

We've been down this road before. Quinn, Weeden, Manziel, Kizer, Frye, Kessler were "gambles" that got us nowhere. So you improve enough with your top prospects- and your bargain basement QBs busts- you're not in the position to take a top guy anymore. I think this is the year Dorsey is going to swing for the fences- the Bengals busted for years with guys like Dave Kingler, Jeff Blake, and Akilli Smith- until they got it right with Carson Palmer- I expect the Browns to do the same. No "sure" things Chubb could be another Courtney Brown. Barkley could be another Richardson.