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Sneak Peek: Football Outsiders 2018 QB Class Projections

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  • Jackson is RG3  2.0

  • Stats are so midleading.

    RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

  • Stats are so midleading.

    RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

    @boo-fagley said:

    Stats are so midleading.

    RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

    Famous last words......

    ......... Recent history is littered with teams that drafted a quarterback high, only to find out that player couldn't play at the NFL level......  ~AND~

    "You're going to need a bigger boat".......

    Stats are basically just a bunch of formulas and any other data they can cram into charts and graphs but the wild card is always what is in the hearts, minds, desire and drive of the individual about to jump into this brutal professional game.

  • Stats are so midleading.

    RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

    @boo-fagley said:

    Stats are so midleading. RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

    Not as misleading as an ignorant comment the attempts to lump an advanced analytics approach into "stats".

    QBASE was not around in 2014, but the preceding LCF system was... and Manziel was projected to bust.

    Griffin? Projected to succeed, which he certainly did for one year.

  • Do they have an analytic that can measure what's in an athlete's head and heart?

    Someone should make an app for that and instantly retire a multi-zillionaire. 

  • @boo-fagley said:

    Stats are so midleading. RG3 and Johnny lit it up.

    Not as misleading as an ignorant comment the attempts to lump an advanced analytics approach into "stats".

    QBASE was not around in 2014, but the preceding LCF system was... and Manziel was projected to bust.

    Griffin? Projected to succeed, which he certainly did for one year.

    @tour2ma said:

    Not as misleading as an ignorant comment the attempts to lump an advanced analytics approach into "stats".

    QBASE was not around in 2014, but the preceding LCF system was... and Manziel was projected to bust.

    Griffin? Projected to succeed, which he certainly did for one year.

    The big knock on Allen from the mouth breathers is his completion rate. You have done quite well informing everyone of those numbers.

    Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

  • @tour2ma said:

    Not as misleading as an ignorant comment the attempts to lump an advanced analytics approach into "stats".

    QBASE was not around in 2014, but the preceding LCF system was... and Manziel was projected to bust.

    Griffin? Projected to succeed, which he certainly did for one year.

    The big knock on Allen from the mouth breathers is his completion rate. You have done quite well informing everyone of those numbers.

    Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

    @boo-fagley said:

    The big knock on Allen from the mouth breathers is his completion rate. 

    Don't forget his horrible mechanics, his inability to deal with pressure, and his laughable performances against decent competition.

    He's Jake Locker all over again - a guy getting drafted way too high based on his athletic tools, not his ability as a QB. 

  • I was listening to Sirius NFL the other day discussing this ranking system. It sounded pretty legit. Overall I do have a gut feel that if we pass on Mayfield it will be another thing we regret a long time. 

  • I was listening to Sirius NFL the other day discussing this ranking system. It sounded pretty legit. Overall I do have a gut feel that if we pass on Mayfield it will be another thing we regret a long time. 

    @jcam222 said:

    I was listening to Sirius NFL the other day discussing this ranking system. It sounded pretty legit. Overall I do have a gut feel that if we pass on Mayfield it will be another thing we regret a long time. 

    As predictive analytics go it's not bad and has the requisite feedback loop to improve over time.

    @boo-fagley said:

    The big knock on Allen from the mouth breathers is his completion rate. You have done quite well informing everyone of those numbers.

    Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

    FO's illustrative comments are just that...

  • @tour2ma said:

    Not as misleading as an ignorant comment the attempts to lump an advanced analytics approach into "stats".

    QBASE was not around in 2014, but the preceding LCF system was... and Manziel was projected to bust.

    Griffin? Projected to succeed, which he certainly did for one year.

    The big knock on Allen from the mouth breathers is his completion rate. You have done quite well informing everyone of those numbers.

    Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

    @boo-fagley said:

    Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

    Boy, if that list doesn't get you all pumped up about taking Allen, I don't know what will.