Inside Info about a Divided Browns Org on our QB? Interesting stuff from a guy who (says he) knows a guy...
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Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
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interesting read, can't wait to see how this draft plays out. Could all be a smokescreen, most likely the Browns want to keep everyone guessing to add value to their picks should they decide to trade down.
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Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
Where did you get your odds from?
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Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
Where did you get your odds from?
Where did you get your odds from?
https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-draft-who-will-be-first-overall-pick
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This stirred up reddit a little while ago when a poster imported it from the Browns' section of another forum, Football's Future.
Personally I found the reported takes to be plausible, if not credible, in no small part due to confirmation bias, if nothing else.
However, regardless of the credibility you give it, you might find the described recon approach teams take to be as fascinating an account of corporate espionage as I did.
Below is the OP from the original site with later edits of the reddit back and forth removed.
Here's the link to the thread: https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/7725-the-coaches-want-rosen-at-1-other-serious-browns-draft-rumblings/
===============================================================================================================================================
**LONG POST ALERT***
I have some terrible news to inform everyone.
It looks like we really will be passing on Darnold....
THIS IS NOT SOME STUPID TROLL, or me doing the reverse psychology thing saying Baker's going first while secretly feeling giddy and knowing we're taking Darnold at 1 as a way to cope with the possibility the Browns might screw this up.
(Skip to The News below if u must)
As I've said before, my brother in law was a scout & personnel assistant exec for 11 years. I never ID'd his team when he was employed but he was canned in the mass firings when Mr. Reese and co. were fired from the Giants.
Although I'm often wrong about my own predictions, my b.o i. always cautioned me that what he'd tell me in terms of rumors has a chance of being misinformation put out by other teams to hide their true intentions. However, the vast majority of things he told me that I posted on this forum came true.
For example, for those people that actually paid attention to my posts on the old forum before last year's draft, you'd remember that based on what my b.o.i. heard at the combine I posted "the Bears will look to trade up for Trubisky with either the Browns at 1 or San Fran at 2." At the time, only 3 people responded to that post.
I also posted that "Sashi Brown was seen twice via my b.o.i.'s team spycraft department, 1st with Rick Smith of the Texans, and 2nd with Ryan Pace of the Bears at a private membership only room at a Wine & Cigar lounge in Indy" and... "Dont be surprised if we trade one of our picks to the Bears or Texans." That post received 2 responses and came true regarding the draft.
Teams have 10s and even 100s of thousands of dollar budget for their "spycraft" depts that includes things you wouldnt even believe all in order to propel the interests of their million dollar cash cows.
One of the more basic ways for teams to get inside info is to recruit disgruntled "soon to be fired" scouts and personnel staffers away from another team while they are still employed and possibly privy to strategic information. ALL teams try to do this. The best and smartest teams top execs leave scouts & even key personnel staffers in the dark on real rankings and strategy for fear of info leaking out. The elite top execs only inform the owner & a select few before the draft. Smart top execs run disinformation campaigns and put up false rankings in plain view of scouts and staffers so the disinfo will leak to teams giving them an advantage to operate under the veil of confusion.
The News: My b.o.i. told me this morning "the scuttlebut is that 6 Browns scouts & 1 personnel exec have been "respectably" flipped (i.e., they already agreed to move on to a team without breaching the trust of their former employee) due to being promised future jobs & due to being disgruntled"...However, 2 scouts and 1 personnel exec has been "unhonorably flipped" (i.e., informing on the teams draft beliefs while still employed to another team) with 1 person in particular "lacking any sort of ethics and is singing like canary so much that the team he's giving the info to is secretly laughing their a**es off b/c they know there's no way in hell they're hiring this guy after all this."
Apparently, there is already a major rift between the offensive coaches & the top personnel execs regarding the pick at 1 and ranking the QBs. It's likely irreconcilable.
In what was a shocker to me as a "Darnold no matter" what guy Todd Haley, Ken Zampese, Hue Jackson, and Al Saunders (he's become a de facto QB scout) are united in the belief that Josh Rosen is their guy, clear cut by a wide margin. The combine interview only confirmed this and they are all in. They all agree that Sam Darnold is their number 2, but there are some disagreements between the coaches on who is 3rd as some say Baker Mayfield while others surprisingly say Lamar Jackson. All the coaches apparently have Josh Allen 5th which completely surprised me.
The only personnel execs that mostly agree with the coaches are Eliot Wolf & Andrew Berry with Wolf having Darnold as QB1 and AB having had Darnold at 1 precombine but put Rosen ahead at 1 after the interview as Darnold tanked the interview and had no presence on the white board (I'd say did Mariota or Eli have a presence? Did Favre do a great job with X&Os on the board? No... but I digress..)
The rest of the top personnel staff (John Dorsey, Scot McCloughan--yes he's a top staffer more on that in a bit, and Alonzo Highsmith) along with Paul DePodesta have Baker Mayfield as their clear cut leader by a wide margin. The personnel guys then have Josh Allen number 2! Followed by Sam Darnold at 3 and Josh Rosen at 4. Paul DePo supposedly has it Baker, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, & Allen.
Complicating the matter is apparently Scot McCloughan has come in waving a big stick as a former GM like he's the de facto top personnel guy when John Dorsey isnt around. He pulls his "when i was GM" card out in every debate. He is not consulting with other teams as that was just a farce to buy him time to finish some past due work that he and his company owed some teams for purchasing their scouting services. He is a full time Browns employee. This has in particular caused friction with Eliot Wolf as he thought he'd have that "right hand man assistant GM" role and it seems that Scot will have a powerful permanent position after the draft unless something changes and problems can be worked out.
Right now, John Dorsey is supposedly selling Jimmy that Baker is the top prospect as identified by Analytics and Traditional Scouting methodology with Paul DePo in his corner. Dorsey and Scot were blown away by Baker's combine interview while coaches thought he was too defensive.
As a temporary compromise just to keep the peace while much draft work is still to be done, the coaches and personnel execs are now strongly discussing that they will take their number 1 player on the big board Bradley Chubb at #1 overall and their QB at 4. Which to me makes ABSOLUTELY NO FU**ING sense at all when we need a QB.....but again I digress...
Distraught on Skype I immediately asked my b.o.i. " if this was all a joke" and "how certain are you that this isnt just elegant disinformation on the Browns part"?
He told me it's absolutely not a joke and the same spycraft dept heads (some of the best in the business) that he trusted in NY all those years have the Giants new personnel staff convinced that it is real enough to the point where everyone on the Giants staff except for new GM Dave Gettleman and an assistant staffer are operating as if it's true and they'll have their pick of all the QBs at 2 or at worst Baker Mayfield will go 1.
I've jokingly been saying Baker would go 1 but secretly believed Hue and co AND Dorsey all loved Sam Darnold at 1. I never even considered the thought that Josh Rosen wouldve been the unanimous selection among the coaches.
My only hope now is that some compromise is struck and we go Chubb at 1 and Rosen makes it to 4 based on the personality thing, or Hue and the coaches win out and we take Rosen at 1 to guarantee we get our QB, or that meathead Dorsey is running the most sophisticated 4D chess misinformation game utilizing scouts, coaches, and personnel people as pawns to fool the scouting community. I'll hold my breath on the latter.
Say goodbye to Darnold for real my friends. He's the hero we deserved...I'll never stop believing that based on the tape review. It just really sucks...
I'm now going to watch Rosen again and try to 1. convince myself I like him more than Darnold and 2. Somehow the coaches desires win out...wish me luck..
Oh...P.S. I hate-love (more hate than anything) this sh** team with all my heart..
One of the more basic ways for teams to get inside info is to recruit disgruntled "soon to be fired" scouts and personnel staffers away from another team while they are still employed and possibly privy to strategic information. ALL teams try to do this. The best and smartest teams top execs leave scouts & even key personnel staffers in the dark on real rankings and strategy for fear of info leaking out. The elite top execs only inform the owner & a select few before the draft. Smart top execs run disinformation campaigns and put up false rankings in plain view of scouts and staffers so the disinfo will leak to teams giving them an advantage to operate under the veil of confusion.
Even after stating this, we are supposed to believe that a scout from another team knows everything about who likes who in the Browns organization. Unlikely
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This picture gives this scenario a lot more credibility. Look who is directly to the left of Dorsey, yeah that’s Scot McCloughan
I see what look to be a couple of young kids to either side of him....who are they? Interns? Coffee fetchers? Is so...where is Hue?
I see what look to be a couple of young kids to either side of him....who are they? Interns? Coffee fetchers? Is so...where is Hue?
Sent to "The Pit of Misery" DILLY DILLY!!!!!!
Hue is out with Jimmy interviewing homeless guys
Or this... ^^^^^
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One of the more basic ways for teams to get inside info is to recruit disgruntled "soon to be fired" scouts and personnel staffers away from another team while they are still employed and possibly privy to strategic information. ALL teams try to do this. The best and smartest teams top execs leave scouts & even key personnel staffers in the dark on real rankings and strategy for fear of info leaking out. The elite top execs only inform the owner & a select few before the draft. Smart top execs run disinformation campaigns and put up false rankings in plain view of scouts and staffers so the disinfo will leak to teams giving them an advantage to operate under the veil of confusion.
Even after stating this, we are supposed to believe that a scout from another team knows everything about who likes who in the Browns organization. Unlikely
Even after stating this, we are supposed to believe that a scout from another team knows everything about who likes who in the Browns organization. Unlikely
Agree... and even the original poster is not claiming the "insight" to be gospel, but he also alludes to the fact that teams vet the rumors they hear. And that's easier as it only takes a "where did you hear that?" response or two. When there are as many people "in the room" as that pic of Dorsey that's floating around, a lot of people come away knowing, or thinking they know, things.
Foremost of the known things would be where division exists and who is on what side. Those are on clear display in the meeting. And that's all this guy is saying his bro-in-law has heard.
What people think they know, but really don't, is what the ultimate decision is... a//k/a about every other report out there.
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Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
Betting odds on 1st pick ...Darnold still odds on despite rumors (April 4)
- Sam Darnold (QB) -300
- Josh Allen (QB) +175
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
- Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
- Field (Any Other Player) +3300
Earlier odds from March 6 shows how Darnold has moved up and passed Barkley as the favorite #1 pick. Odds although not always absolutely correct they can pick up on the latest trends. Note too the field went from +1600 to +3300 a significant change and more uncertainty on anyone else slipping in the race.
Betting houses #1 rule they do not like to lose money.
Odds as of March 6 at BetOnline
- Saquon Barkley (RB) +180
- Sam Darnold (QB) +300
- Josh Allen (QB) +380
- Baker Mayfield (QB) +600
- Josh Rosen (QB) +800
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +2500
- Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
- Field (Any Other Player) +1600
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Well another opinion this one from vegasinsider.com on the top picks including our BROWNS:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/1917597
1. Darnold 2. Allen 3. Rosun 4. Barkley and the rest......
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Well... there's been a couple updates. And they are not good news for either the Rosen or Allen lovers...
Good news for you, but sh*** news for me.... Just got off the phone with my brother-in-law about an hour ago... he said the Giants are rebuffing even the Broncos current unbelievable trade offer because their personnel group is operating under belief that the Browns are taking Baker Mayfield at 1.
They will stay at number 2, Select Sam Darnold in a scenario that at the start of the draft season was only thought to be an unattainable fantasy.
The coaches desire for Josh Rosen has apparently cooled due to the neurology review and medical assessment during his private workout and private medical review at the hospital showing he may have some longterm risk having sustained 4 concussions in 3.5 years (2 in high school; 2 in college).
After the interviews and private workouts, Baker Mayfield has won the QB derby.....
Giants personnel group actually thinks the Browns will go 1. Baker Mayfield and 4. Denzel Ward.
At this point, my b.i.l. thinks the top 7 will go: 1. Browns: Baker Mayfield, 2. Giants: Sam Darnold, 3. Jets: Josh Rosen, 4. Browns: Denzel Ward, 5. Broncos: Quenton Nelson or Trade down with Buffalo who comes up to get Josh Allen, 6. Colts: Bradley Chubb, 7. Buccaneers: Saquon Barkley
1. The Oklahoma staff firmly believes that Baker is John Dorsey's guy... and that he's been so all along specifically because Dorsey called the coaches and private manager of Mayfield and told him to keep his head down and stay out of trouble more than once.
2. Supposedly, The O-Coaches & Eliot Wolf (Haley, Zampese, and Hue) wanted Rosen but now it's Darnold after private meetings and neurological assessments of Rosen... meanwhile the key Personnel group (Dorsey, Highsmith, McCloughan) all are full on Team Mayfield...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Taking anyone other than Rosen is just making life harder on yourself than it has to be.
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Taking anyone other than Rosen is just making life harder on yourself than it has to be.
If the "neurological assessment" causes the medical staff to cross off Rosen, then that's it... life is going to be harder.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Well... there's been a couple updates. And they are not good news for either the Rosen or Allen lovers...
Good news for you, but sh*** news for me.... Just got off the phone with my brother-in-law about an hour ago... he said the Giants are rebuffing even the Broncos current unbelievable trade offer because their personnel group is operating under belief that the Browns are taking Baker Mayfield at 1.
They will stay at number 2, Select Sam Darnold in a scenario that at the start of the draft season was only thought to be an unattainable fantasy.
The coaches desire for Josh Rosen has apparently cooled due to the neurology review and medical assessment during his private workout and private medical review at the hospital showing he may have some longterm risk having sustained 4 concussions in 3.5 years (2 in high school; 2 in college).
After the interviews and private workouts, Baker Mayfield has won the QB derby.....
Giants personnel group actually thinks the Browns will go 1. Baker Mayfield and 4. Denzel Ward.
At this point, my b.i.l. thinks the top 7 will go: 1. Browns: Baker Mayfield, 2. Giants: Sam Darnold, 3. Jets: Josh Rosen, 4. Browns: Denzel Ward, 5. Broncos: Quenton Nelson or Trade down with Buffalo who comes up to get Josh Allen, 6. Colts: Bradley Chubb, 7. Buccaneers: Saquon Barkley
1. The Oklahoma staff firmly believes that Baker is John Dorsey's guy... and that he's been so all along specifically because Dorsey called the coaches and private manager of Mayfield and told him to keep his head down and stay out of trouble more than once.
2. Supposedly, The O-Coaches & Eliot Wolf (Haley, Zampese, and Hue) wanted Rosen but now it's Darnold after private meetings and neurological assessments of Rosen... meanwhile the key Personnel group (Dorsey, Highsmith, McCloughan) all are full on Team Mayfield...
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Well, I've been wondering how they were going to Browns it up this year, now I know.
Hang in there, D... it's still only a "belief".
FWIW the source said that part of the reason for the Mayfield love is that while he was unemployed Dorsey lived in the home of an OU booster in Norman for all six, home game weeks and attended every one of Baker's home games.
Sounds kinda stalker-ish...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
If the "neurological assessment" causes the medical staff to cross off Rosen, then that's it... life is going to be harder.
Unless homeboys brain comes back like Billy Bob's from Varsity Blues then I'm not gonna buy any other reason.
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Well, I've been wondering how they were going to Browns it up this year, now I know.
Hang in there, D... it's still only a "belief".
FWIW the source said that part of the reason for the Mayfield love is that while he was unemployed Dorsey lived in the home of an OU booster in Norman for all six, home game weeks and attended every one of Baker's home games.
Sounds kinda stalker-ish...
FWIW the source said that part of the reason for the Mayfield love is that while he was unemployed Dorsey lived in the home of an OU booster in Norman for all six, home game weeks and attended every one of Baker's home games
Dorsey said this in a early presser somewhere maybe around Senior Bowl'ish if my memory is correct? Kind'a figured it would be hard to disrail his train when I heard it..there's smoke then there's somebody truly putting a Browns ball cap on..the giants will hand out their own hats..but not for us.. tick tick tock
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yep..check here it is.. good review again of Dorsey draft outlook/GM speak..hits Rosen with MKC about 3mins in..Mayfield 5min'ish in
Also am remembering a NFL network guy reporting Dorsey having a long talk with DE Marcus Davenport from Texas San Antonio U during Senior Bowl..great more smoke
Chief Strategy of Baseball Paul Depodesta meet Morris Buttermaker of Walter Matthau fame..Tanner your moving from 2nd base to playing QB
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Baker Mayfield being compared to Tanner Boyle in The Bad News Bears has to be my favorite moment in the lead-up to this draft. I can't remember who said it, I think it was a draft guy from the NFL Network named Charles something?
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Wait there's more
..1)Tyrod Taylor takes in his Virginia Tech Hokie football Spring Game today(dude loves football) 2) QB Drew Stanton is playing Golf with Bruce Arians Golf Charity(practicing clipboard holding) 3)Jimmy Haslam is busing his newly signed 21 FA's to Dinner after 1st offseason workouts begins Monday..All is kumbaya on Gilligan's lost Island.. EDit:Dutch tell Chuck to stop stealing my rap til Poe'g gets back from Tampa Hoorta & Marko must have noodlin drug poor poe'g like a catfish to internet-less Tampa 
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