From nobody to the top of the first round of the draft - Josh Allen

7moses7

Did someone say Baker Mayfield?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

The Gipper

FORT COLLINS — Imagine you are a college football coach in the Border War between Colorado State and Wyoming and are given a choice of quarterback. No bias here. Just a blind study based on the numbers.

Quarterback A: 123-of-220 (.559); 1,450 yards; 12 touchdowns; six interceptions; 123.8 rating.

Quarterback B: 196-of-318 (.616); 2,755 yards; 22 touchdowns; nine interceptions; 151.6 rating.

B is your choice? Can’t blame you. But that’s exactly what makes Saturday’s rivalry game in Laramie so intriguing. Because in a matchup of the Mountain West’s best passing quarterbacks, raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.

The player you picked is CSU quarterback Nick Stevens, a senior with none of the NFL draft hype and all of the gaudy numbers. The player you passed over is Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, a junior with all of the NFL draft hype and none of the gaudy numbers. One constant is mutual respect.

Stevens says of Allen: “What’s impressive is his playmaking ability.”

Allen says of Stevens: “They’re a well-oiled machine and he’s at the helm.”

Allen, 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, was anointed NFL draft royalty after a sophomore season in which he passed for 3,203 yards and 28 touchdowns, prompting one league executive to tell ESPN’s Adam Schefter: “You can put it in the books — Josh Allen will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft next year.” That’s not the consensus now; recent mock selections from CBS Sports, USA Today and Pro Football Focus don’t even have Allen being drafted in the first round. Bleacher Report, though, lists Allen at No. 6 overall.

The wide range of opinion stems from Allen’s lackluster 2017 statistics and a playing style that both befuddles and inspires. Wyoming graduated starting center Chase Roullier and four players — wide receivers Tanner Gentry and Jake Maulhardt, running back Brian Hill and tight end Jacob Hollister — who accounted for 47 touchdowns on the 2016 team. That attrition led Allen to try and play hero ball this season.

When he takes off and runs 99 yards and has an 8-yard gain, jumps and lands on his head, we probably can maybe reel him back a little,” said Wyoming coach Craig Bohl. “But that’s where our football team is at right now. He’s going to do whatever he can to help us win. It’s been really encouraging, and a lot of our other players feed off that.”

Stevens, meanwhile, has thrived at CSU thanks in part to a strong supporting cast that features the nation’s leading receiver in Michael Gallup (1,167 yards), an offensive line that has allowed only four sacks and tailbacks Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews, who have combined to rush for 1,438 yards and 12 touchdowns.

NFLDraftScout.com lists Stevens (6-3, 215) as the No. 13-ranked quarterback among players eligible for the 2018 draft. Ten quarterbacks were drafted this year. Stevens probably will be in an NFL training camp next summer, most likely as an undrafted rookie.

“I think Nick has a chance to play at the next level because he’s extremely bright and he can run a pro-style offense,” CSU coach Mike Bobo said. “He understands what we’re doing offensively better than anyone I’ve ever had of getting us in the right play and setting the protection.”

Corey Chavous is a former Vanderbilt safety who played 11 years in the NFL and now is an NFL draft analyst for the CBS Sports Network. Chavous believes both Border War quarterbacks will have an opportunity to play in the NFL but have a lot of room to grow.

Chavous says of Allen: “I think he does hold the ball too long at times in film study. The question a lot of times is, will he locate the underneath zone droppers? I think a lot of times that has led to him making some mistakes. … The accuracy can be a little bit hot and cold from him.”

Chavous says of Stevens: “He’s probably a little bit better throwing between the numbers, although he’s improved outside the numbers. I think arm strength is going to be a little bit of a question mark. Can he translate to the next level and make all the throws?”

Allen and Stevens aren’t focused on the draft. The winner of the Border War game will take the driver’s seat in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division, with a Nov. 11 home game against Boise State looming large for the Rams.

So be glad you don’t have to choose one quarterback over the other Saturday. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

7moses7

I’ll take QB A.

The Gipper

@7moses7 said:

I’ll take QB A.

You say that now only because you know who QB A is.

But....the fact is....Nick Stevens may in fact be the better QB coming out of the MW conference.

Nick Stevens college stats:

Passing

		Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Colorado State					638	1031	61.9	8554	8.3	8.5	70	27	148.7
*2014	Colorado State	MWC	FR	QB	5	15	25	60.0	136	5.4	6.2	1	0	118.9
*2015	Colorado State	MWC	SO	QB	13	210	346	60.7	2678	7.7	7.4	21	12	138.8
*2016	Colorado State	MWC	JR	QB	10	129	201	64.2	1936	9.6	10.4	19	5	171.3
*2017	Colorado State	MWC	SR	QB	13	284	459	61.9	3804	8.3	8.6	29	10	148.0

Josh Allen college stats:

Passing

		Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
*2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8

I think it is pretty fair to compare these two guys because they played against the same competition at the same time.

Tour2ma

One down... five to go?

hoorta

@calfoxwc said:

Yes, and Maurice Jones-Drew on NFLN had the Browns taking Saquon Barkley at #1, totally passing on a QB. Charlie Casserly and Jeremiah still say Darnold. Mel? Has been mocking Allen to the Browns for a month. If Depodesta has any input at all left in Berea, it will be anyone but Allen. If you bothered to look at the advanced metrics link, Josh is about seventh in QB rank.

Tour2ma

If we don't take Allen, Mel Kiper may be the only person on earth who will be more upset with the Browns than cal.

Unsurprisingly Mel also took Allen for us in his "Grade A Draft" out yesterday.

His rationale was that we need to "swing for the fences". Yes, he actually said that.

My out loud response to the TV was, "Guys who swing for the fences tend to strike out a lot."

mjp28

@hoorta said:

Yes, and Maurice Jones-Drew on NFLN had the Browns taking Saquon Barkley at #1, totally passing on a QB. Charlie Casserly and Jeremiah still say Darnold. Mel? Has been mocking Allen to the Browns for a month. If Depodesta has any input at all left in Berea, it will be anyone but Allen. If you bothered to look at the advanced metrics link, Josh is about seventh in QB rank.

I don't think MJD has a grip on this draft thing.

MGD?

The Gipper

@tour2ma said:

If we don't take Allen, Mel Kiper may be the only person on earth who will be more upset with the Browns than cal.

Unsurprisingly Mel also took Allen for us in his "Grade A Draft" out yesterday.

His rationale was that we need to "swing for the fences". Yes, he actually said that.

My out loud response to the TV was, "Guys who swing for the fences tend to strike out a lot."

Again, I swear it is because he is a Ravens fan and he wants the Browns to continually strike out, as you say.

hoorta

@7moses7 said:

Did someone say Baker Mayfield?????????

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.

@7moses7 said:

I’ll take QB A.

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department.

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.

hoorta

@the-gipper said:

Again, I swear it is because he (Kiper) is a Ravens fan and he wants the Browns to continually strike out, as you say.

This time of year I always like to remind folks of Mel's famous pronouncement draft day many years ago... MMMMMMUUUUUSSSSSTTTT draft Hart Lee Dykes.

The Gipper

@hoorta said:

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department.

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.

Nick Stevens is no midget. 6'3" 215. Could put on 10 pounds. But, apparently does not have a bazooka arm.

Overview

Stevens is highly-respected by teammates for his ability to fight through adversity and come out on the other side as a productive, consistent quarterback. He lacks the build and arm talent of a draftable quarterback, but he does check the accuracy box. He should make it into a camp where he has an outside shot of landing a QB3 spot if he finds the perfect fit.

Strengths

Team captain who was able to "grow as a leader" over the past two seasons according to his head coach
Has experience working from under center with pro-style passing concepts
Throws with timing outside the hashes to make up for limited arm talent
Ball placement and accuracy are good
Plus touch on fades near the goal line
Throws receivers away from trouble
Mentally tough
Benched after atrocious first game of 2016 and has thrown 48 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions since then
Weaknesses
Skinny frame with spindly legs
Not built for NFL pocket violence
Doesn't carry NFL arm strength
Unable to generate drive velocity with lower half and everything floats
Threw poor ratio of 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions on intermediate and deep throws this year
Instinctive defensive backs will slam his passing windows shut
Inaccurate on deep sideline throws
Below average athlete
Can get happy feet when early reads are covered up
Sounds Cody Kesslerish to me

LondonBrown

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence.

The Gipper

@londonbrown said:

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence.

You act as if the fuyucking money were coming out of your pocket. Who cares about the money as long as the players produce....and it does not hamstring us otherwise...which this does not.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@hoorta said:

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department.

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.

That was my original argument for Mayfield and against Allen.

Now I’m flip flopping it. You can improve accuracy, depending on the circumstances. You can’t get taller.

Im a Rosen guy first and foremost. I’m a Darnold guy second and...soremost? Allen is my penultimate prospect of the top 5 TBH.

But at this point, I’m fine with taking Allen if that’s the QB Dorsey wants the most and if he legitimately gets the Rodgers treatment.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@londonbrown said:

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence.

Signing a top ten receiver has no impact on what QB we’re going to take in the draft. None whatsoever.

syd

allen just seems to have that drive to be a great QB in the league and I believe he would be a great fit sitting behind eli for a couple of years

hoorta

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

That was my original argument for Mayfield and against Allen.

Now I’m flip flopping it. You can improve accuracy, depending on the circumstances. You can’t get taller.

Im a Rosen guy first and foremost. I’m a Darnold guy second and...soremost? Allen is my penultimate prospect of the top 5 TBH.

But at this point, I’m fine with taking Allen if that’s the QB Dorsey wants the most and if he legitimately gets the Rodgers treatment.

Like we'll have a choice in who the Browns draft. My order now is Darnold- Mayfield- Rosen, and hell no to Allen or Jackson. Should Dorsey take Allen he'll have a lot shorter honeymoon in Cleveland if Allen busts. Have to admit in my book- John has done little wrong since he's taken over. Started off on the right foot sending Kenny Britt packing almost immediately.

Tour2ma

@syd said:

allen just seems to have that drive to be a great QB in the league and I believe he would be a great fit sitting behind eli for a couple of years

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

syd

@tour2ma said:

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

wow Phipps that's harsh man