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From nobody to the top of the first round of the draft - Josh Allen

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  • Homeschool kids have buddies? 😉

    I hear ya... no idea if this is the agent, but I'd hope it was.

  • @syd said:

    allen just seems to have that drive to be a great QB in the league and I believe he would be a great fit sitting behind eli for a couple of years

    lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

    Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

    And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

    This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

    He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

    @tour2ma said:

    lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

    Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

    And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

    This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

    He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

    This^   though it may be more like 3.0.....because we had 2.0 playing for us last year.

  • @tour2ma said:

    lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

    Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

    And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

    This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

    He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

    This^   though it may be more like 3.0.....because we had 2.0 playing for us last year.

    @the-gipper said:

    This^   though it may be more like 3.0.....because we had 2.0 playing for us last year.

    Yes.....but we'll never be able to say a pass from Phipps to Pitts again!

  • @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    Allen is really messing with me, to be honest. I see shades of Roethlisberger and Rodgers in him. Then I’ll see shades of Kizer or Boller.

    pls, put these Qb traits in order of importance to you 1)accuracy 2)field vision 3)poise/leadership 4)arm strength 5)pocket presence/escapability 6)anticipation 7)mechanics 8)size...I see Allen only winning out on the field at only #4/#8.. I also see why you like Rosen, if we can surpass injury concerns. Size to me ranks last considering other traits..Allen,Jackson maybe Darnold, fit the mold of sitting a year..Mayfield has not sat for no-one in his life.(with off field concerns) .Rosen I see no way we could sit him a year..thanks for your QB opinions here..  

    @gumby73 said:

    pls, put these Qb traits in order of importance to you 1)accuracy 2)field vision 3)poise/leadership 4)arm strength 5)pocket presence/escapability 6)anticipation 7)mechanics 8)size...I see Allen only winning out on the field at only #4/#8.. I also see why you like Rosen, if we can surpass injury concerns. Size to me ranks last considering other traits..Allen,Jackson maybe Darnold, fit the mold of sitting a year..Mayfield has not sat for no-one in his life.(with off field concerns) .Rosen I see no way we could sit him a year..thanks for your QB opinions here..  

    I wouldn't include accuracy in that list solely because accuracy is a sum of multiple parts - field vision, arm strength, anticipation and mechanics are all variables that contribute to accuracy. That's the issue I have with people who cling so hard to the "ACCURACY IS THE ONLY IMPORTANT QUALITY" argument.

    Take three guys with the same college stats and let them throw at 25 stationary targets on a football field. They all three hit the same number of targets. One guy, however, is a QB with better anticipation. One guy is a QB with better field vision. And the third guy is a QB with better arm strength. Which one is the "more accurate" one?  

    If a QB is labeled as inaccurate, I want to know why. Does he not see the field? Does he not anticipate windows? Does he not have the arm strength to get the ball there?

     In Allen's case, his inaccuracy stems from four main causes IMO: 

       - situation

       - playcalling/scheme

       - footwork

       - and his decision-making.

    Situation

    I'll start with this because it's the lowest hanging fruit. The top three players in receptions graduated after the 2016 season, giving Allen an entirely new stable of pass-catchers. This isn't an excuse so much as it's just context. He was still a 56% passer before they left, and its not like they dropped an inordinate amount of balls in 2017 either. Quite the contrary. But it's still a variable nonetheless, as he was throwing to freshmen and sophomores. Further, both of his starting tackles were freshmen in 2017 and that line was...well, it wasn't very good. Not an excuse, but context.

    Footwork

    I'll move to footwork because it's a quick one. The good news (IMO) is that footwork is probably the easiest mechanical issue to fix. It's not like fixing a wonky delivery. It's not like changing a release point. It's not like shortening a windup.  This should yield a small positive return in overall accuracy as it will enable him to help deliver the ball to the place he's actually intending for it to go. 

    Decision Making

    The bad news is that decision-making in itself is like accuracy, there's a wealth of variables involved. To some extent, this can be improved with time and comfortability, but I mean...he'll never be a 65% passer. The kid will always be Favre-esque in his mentality. 

    Playcalling/ Scheme

    It's not a cop-out to say that Allen wasn't helped by his playcalling or the scheme in which he was in. I think it's been said that just by adding one more screen pass per game, it would have bumped his completion percentage up to 59%. I haven't seen passing breakdowns in terms of playcall types, but I'd venture a guess that Wyoming's offense had fewer of those high-percentage passing plays than some of the others. I can only recall a few off hand. Then again, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

    But it does go to show that there's at least some stock to be put into the whole "he wasn't set up for success" narrative. His numbers will naturally be lower than those of his contemporaries just due to this fact alone.

    This article is a good look at the philosophy of what kind of program Bohl is attempting to build Wyoming into, which is slightly reflective of the offensive philosophy Vigen brings. It's a tough, hard-nosed, more traditional-style offense that's rooted in WCO philosophies and brings in a little of the Tom Osbornesque power run, I-form. Vigen's general philosophy is a controlled passing game and a methodical, 10-15 play drive that eats up clock and kills the defense over time.

    In all honesty, the Wyoming offense and Josh Allen theoretically don't make for a good fit. Allen isn't a great anticipatory thrower. He's not terrible, but it's certainly not one of his top skills. IMO Allen skillset would likely be better utilized in a slightly more downfield passing attack with heavy integration of RPO's - a la the Philly philosophy as of late (I know it's en vogue to emulate the most recent SB winner.) 

    My conclusion

    I don't think Allen is inherently inaccurate. I also don't think he'll ever be extremely accurate. I also don't think that's a problem.

    Cam Newton is not an accurate NFL QB. To be frank, he wasn't an accurate NCAA QB either, he was a big play QB on an stacked team running a Malzahn hurry up offense that people hadn't caught on to yet. Cam Newton has found a way to succeed despite his career 58% percentage by being a large, athletically gifted, strong armed big football boy who makes big football boy plays from time to time.

    That's Allen's career, in my opinion. 

    Also, I didn't answer your question - but I would go:

    - Field Vision 

    - Pocket Presence/ Escapability

    - Anticipation 

    - Size 

     - Poise/Leadership

    - Arm Strength 

    - Mechanics

  • TCPO thanks for the time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

  • TCPO thanks for the time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

    @gumby73 said:

    TCPO thanks for time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

    Appreciate it but I’d honestly defer to Tour when it come to QB’s.

    I miss more than I hit.

    Id love for us to grab a potential guy like Allen and let him hit, but I dont think we are really in a scenario to do that. I’d still much rather us take Rosen or Darnold.

  • We talked late last year about Kizer, so we all miss. Or they missed on coaching a kid up? Am thinking the card reads Darnold..Unless Haley & Hue want to take on the Rosen mind challenge game..agree on Allen's potential, but Hue may never see it in time..maybe Dorsey does?   

  • @gumby73 said:

    TCPO thanks for time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

    Appreciate it but I’d honestly defer to Tour when it come to QB’s.

    I miss more than I hit.

    Id love for us to grab a potential guy like Allen and let him hit, but I dont think we are really in a scenario to do that. I’d still much rather us take Rosen or Darnold.

    @tim-couch-pulls-out said:

    I miss more than I hit.

    With QBs who doesn't? That's why I like the OL... 🙂

    Agree on the start of your post... you can't mix in outputs like "accuracy" with inputs like footwork. That said...

    The big issue I have with your analysis is that Allen footwork isn't bad... in fact on most throws it's quite good so long as he targets his primary in rhythm. If he doesn't, or can't, then Allen tends to twist his torso rather than move his feet in the direction of the ball's new destination. Put another way his feet are not connected to his eyes and that creates problems. He's much better off on the run.

  • We talked late last year about Kizer, so we all miss. Or they missed on coaching a kid up? Am thinking the card reads Darnold..Unless Haley & Hue want to take on the Rosen mind challenge game..agree on Allen's potential, but Hue may never see it in time..maybe Dorsey does?   

    @gumby73 said:

    Or they missed on coaching a kid up?

    Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

  • @gumby73 said:

    Or they missed on coaching a kid up?

    Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

    @tour2ma said:

    Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

    ..31 other teams that didn't draft Kizer.(GM)They also don't let Kizer see the field.(Hue).it was that easy. So QB by default wins a doughnut hole O - 16.. We certainly own it     

  • Yup... no guarantee that Kizer makes it with a full time QB coach and OC and time, but the kid had no chance under 3-Hat Hue...

  • Yup... no guarantee that Kizer makes it with a full time QB coach and OC and time, but the kid had no chance under 3-Hat Hue...

    @tour2ma said:

    Yup... no guarantee that Kizer makes it with a full time QB coach and OC and time, but the kid had no chance under 3-Hat Hue...

    Coach up plan A - OK kid we know you had two years as QB in college and we were a 1-15 team last year and we have no real WRs and you will lose your #1 OL guy (oh didn't know that yet).....so here's the ball and we'll figure it out as we go. Now go win one for the Gipper!

    Plan B - OK who has Plan B? Nobody did one? 😆

  • You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

  • You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    @jrb12711 said:

    You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

    WSS

  • You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    @jrb12711 said:

    You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

    In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

    More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

    Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

  • @jrb12711 said:

    You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

    WSS

    @westside-steve said:

    How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

    Good enough that he was pretty easy to see coming...

    Pushing 70% in the early 2000's was a much bigger deal than it is today.

        Passing
    Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
    Career Miami (OH)         854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3
    2001 Miami (OH) MAC FR QB 12 241 381 63.3 3105 8.1 7.9 25 13 146.5
    2002 Miami (OH) MAC SO QB 12 271 428 63.3 3238 7.6 7.4 22 11 138.7
    *2003 Miami (OH) MAC JR QB 14 342 495 69.1 4486 9.1 9.6 37 10 165.8
  • @westside-steve said:

    How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

    Good enough that he was pretty easy to see coming...

    Pushing 70% in the early 2000's was a much bigger deal than it is today.

        Passing
    Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
    Career Miami (OH)         854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3
    2001 Miami (OH) MAC FR QB 12 241 381 63.3 3105 8.1 7.9 25 13 146.5
    2002 Miami (OH) MAC SO QB 12 271 428 63.3 3238 7.6 7.4 22 11 138.7
    *2003 Miami (OH) MAC JR QB 14 342 495 69.1 4486 9.1 9.6 37 10 165.8

    @tour2ma said:

    Good enough that he was pretty easy to see coming...

        Passing
    Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
    Career Miami (OH)         854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3
    2001 Miami (OH) MAC FR QB 12 241 381 63.3 3105 8.1 7.9 25 13 146.5
    2002 Miami (OH) MAC SO QB 12 271 428 63.3 3238 7.6 7.4 22 11 138.7
    *2003 Miami (OH) MAC JR QB 14 342 495 69.1 4486 9.1 9.6 37 10 165.8

    Exactly. Which is where the comparisons toJosh Allen cease to align.

    WSS

  • @jrb12711 said:

    You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

    In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

    More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

    Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

    @tour2ma said:

    There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

    In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

    More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

    Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

    Right, but unless I'm mistaken the only one AFTER ben you noted was Bortles (meh) Flacco (who I would argue isn't in this conversation) and cam who I missed. So wentz and cam leads you to two QBs over a decade who fit the "big and burly" mold like ben did out of college. To me that's more than a coincidence and shows a trend of where the nfl has gone the past 10, 12 years. 

  • @jrb12711 said:

    You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

    We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

    There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

    In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

    More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

    Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

    @tour2ma said:

    There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

    In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

    More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

    Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

    Yes,  and oh so many of those BIG QBs have been long tall piles of suckitude:

    Jamarcus Russell  6/6  260

    Leinert 6/5 230

    Vince Young  6/5 235

    Josh Feeman  6/6 245

    Weeden 6/4 230

    Tannehill 6/4 230

    EJ Manuel 6/5 240

    Paxton Lynch  6'7 245

    and those are just first rounders.