PLAYOFF WEEK 4 - SUPER BOWL 54 - KC 31 SF 20 ........ and the NFL season is over.

[mjp28]

@the-gipper said:

But I asked you which team  I should bet on in the Super Bowl....or maybe if there was a prop bet that I should put some money on. 

Can you answer that question? 

I haven't seen the prop bets yet but there is some time before the game.  Let me think about it and get back to you.  So far not a one sided game like some SBs have been.

When do you leave/return?

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

I haven't seen the prop bets yet but there is some time before the game.  Let me think about it and get back to you.  So far not a one sided game like some SBs have been.

When do you leave/return?

Saturday,  I will be in another location for a week, then in Vegas...coming in that day  2/2. 

Which is Groundhog day.

And which will also be the  39th anniversary of starting my law practice, though I am semi-retired now. 

It is also the date that the Nevada Territory was incorporated, which is fitting.

It is also the date in which dogsleds, led by Balto reached Nome with the diptheria vaccine.

It is also the date on which Frank Sinatra made his singing debut with the Tommy Dorsey orchestra

It is also the date that the Germans surrender Stalingrad.

It is also the date on which Bevo Francis scored 113 points for Rio Grande College of Ohio.

It is also the Day the Music Died.  Buddy Holly gives his last performance at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake Iowa before being killed in an air crash in the early morning of the following day.

It is also the day that Vince Lombardi signed a contract to become the Green Bay Packers head coach.

It is also the date that the Cleveland Cavaliers had their smallest crowd ever,   only 1641 people.  A the old Cleveland Arena.

[gumby73]

I see Jarvis on the end of season injury report...But what is OBJ's injury status on a possible sports hernia surgery? core injury? I refuse to follow this guys offseason acts, but I also don't want to hear about jay missing time when it matters either.. anybody seen a medical scoop on OBJ?

[Tour2ma]

@sdbacker80 said:

Anyone else think the wrong team is the favorite?  I can’t see the chiefs stopping the 9er offense.  But I can definitely see the 9er front making plays and forcing some punts and maybe a couple turnovers. 

Me... I thought 49ers would be the favs by as much as a FG.

Much like you I see the 9er Defense being effective up front both shutting down any run game and pressuring Mahomes... especially up the middle. Add the speed SF has at DE and you have a flush and sack recipe. The question becomes then one of the 2ndary match-ups. Can SF check Hill, Watkins, Hardman and Kelce?

SF Offense vs. KC's D? I don't see SF's OL dominating as they did the Packers' front seven, but I don't think they have to do so. "Only" 4 ypc plus change will suffice for setting up the PAP game. I look for Kittle to be a factor in the pass game.

On NFL Live today Ryan Clark characterized this game as "the perfect team vs. the perfect player." A tad hyperbolic perhaps, certainly premature at minimum, but not far off.

[SdBacker80]

@tour2ma said:

Me... I thought 49ers would be the favs by as much as a FG.

Much like you I see the 9er Defense being effective up front both shutting down any run game and pressuring Mahomes... especially up the middle. Add the speed SF has at DE and you have a flush and sack recipe. The question becomes then one of the 2ndary match-ups. Can SF check Hill, Watkins, Hardman and Kelce?

SF Offense vs. KC's D? I don't see SF's OL dominating as they did the Packers' front seven, but I don't think they have to do so. "Only" 4 ypc plus change will suffice for setting up the PAP game. I look for Kittle to be a factor in the pass game.

On NFL Live today Ryan Clark characterized this game as "the perfect team vs. the perfect player." A tad hyperbolic perhaps, certainly premature at minimum, but not far off.

good characterization perfect team vs. perfect player.  That’s a good way to describe the matchup.  
 

There is no secret what the Chiefs have to do on D.  1. Load the box and get that high powered run game going East and West.  

2. Account/Bracket Kittle

3. One on ones with the others- the D needs to tackle in space.  

[TexasAg1969]

@tour2ma said:

Me... I thought 49ers would be the favs by as much as a FG.

Me2. I was thinking 3 1/2 or 4. I won both of my playmoney bets this past weekend. Took SF and gave away 7 1/2 and took the over on the other game.

I kind of like the fairytale ending for Mahomes to win, but realistically the better lines are with SF. Lines win FB. SF will hurry Mahomes a lot more than the Titans could. Far more speed and power combination to handle run and pass by the Def. Lynch knew what he was doing to assemble this team.

[mjp28]

TUESDAY NIGHT 1/21 PM injury report and plenty of time to get ready to play..

Kansas City Chiefs

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
LeSean McCoy	RB	Jan 21	Questionable	(held out in recent games)
Matt Moore	QB	Jan 21	Questionable

San Francisco 49ers

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
Jaquiski Tartt	S	Jan 20	Questionable	Coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Tartt aggravated his rib injury in Sunday's NFC Championship Game, David Lombardi of The Athletic reports.
Tevin Coleman	RB	Jan 20	Questionable	Coleman dislocated his right shoulder during Sunday's 37-20 win against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.

And pretty much well known by now:

Cleveland Browns

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Jan 21	Questionable	Beckham underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a core muscle injury, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

[mjp28]

WEDNESDAY 1/22 NOON injury reports and other NFL tidbits leading up to the pro bowl and SB 54.....

New England Patriots....the gold standard for reporting injuries and other football stuff.

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
Julian Edelman	WR	Jan 21	Questionable	Edelman had shoulder surgery last week, with the expectation of being ready for the Patriots' offseason program this spring, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. And Bill Belichick has reported to the NFL that he will be listed as Questionable for all of 2020.

 

Seattle Seahawks

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
Bobby Wagner	LB	Jan 21	Questionable	Head coach Pete Carroll said Wagner (knee) won't play in the Pro Bowl but shouldn't need surgery, Andy Patton of USA Today reports. "He's just going to rest up," Carroll said. "He doesn't have to do anything for it, but he needs to miss this game."

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

NAME	POS	DATE	STATUS	COMMENT
Chris Godwin	WR	Jan 21	Questionable	Godwin (hamstring) won't play in the Pro Bowl, Greg Auman of The Athletic reports.

[mjp28]

And if you're getting bored and going through the early stages of football withdrawal you could always bet on the AFC/NFC Pro Bowl.  The AFC is a 1.5 point favorite.....I think.

Or you can bet on will I actually watch it or not.  (I'm leaning towards not.)

Oh who here is planning on watching this fine display of football prowess and talent?  Oh and player compensation did you know that the winners in the pro bowl make MORE than the losers on the Superbowl?  

And the pro bowl winners make $37,000 more each than the losers.  $74,000 versus $37,000.  Would you go for that paycheck?

[mjp28]

And the above numbers are based on next year's 2020 pro bowl -and- I'm just too lazy to correct them so there you go.

And how much could the players make in playoff money if they can run the table...... let's see.

If a team has a first-round bye, qualified players will not receive payment.

The authors of the book go on to give specific amounts, but they are all listed as of 2016, when the book I own was published. Below, I have kept the format presented in the book, but updated numbers of the most recent post-season.

Postseason amounts increase each year, and in 2019 (following the 2018 season), players received postseason pay of:

• $27,000 for a wild card game ($29,000 if they were division winner entering this round), plus
• $29,000 for the divisional round, plus
• $54,000 for the conference championship, and
• $118,000 for winning the Super Bowl or $59,000 for losing.

For last year the players could make up to  $230,000 for the SB winners and $171,000 for the forgotten losers -plus- everybody gets a real nice ring.

Not too bad, eh?    

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

I haven't seen the prop bets yet but there is some time before the game.  Let me think about it and get back to you.  So far not a one sided game like some SBs have been.

When do you leave/return?

Hey I need those picks by Friday.

[mjp28]

@the-gipper said:

Hey I need those picks by Friday.

Ok I'll put something together for you by Thursday.   I need to know what your total allotment for betting is to put it together.  And a rough idea of your objectives are like biggest return, best bets, etc.  Like in any smart gambling trip it's a good idea ahead of time to have a budget or amount that you can play.  

Today's line, not much has changed.

[mjp28]

SB 54 BETTING PROPS:. Here's a few easy ones.

Spread: Chiefs -1   Total: 53.5  Moneyline: Chiefs -120, 49ers +100
 

Here are the Super Bowl MVP odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook). There are other players listed at DK, but these are the most likely MVP winners.

Patrick Mahomes: +110...... everybody's favorite
Jimmy Garoppolo: +200
Raheem Mostert: +500
Tyreke Hill: +1600
Travis Kelce: +1600
George Kittle: +2000
Damien Williams: +3300
Mecole Hardman: +3300
Tevin Coleman: +3300
Sammy Watkins: +4000
Tyrann Mathieu: +5000 .......some big payouts if they'd ever pick a defensive player
Nick Bosa: +5000
Deebo Samuel: +5000
Frank Clark: +6000
Arik Armstead: +6500
Matt Breida: +6600
Emmanuel Sanders: +6600
Richard Sherman: +6600

[mjp28]

A printable or PDF file 25 question SB 54 prop sheet.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nIR8QbiKrJG-HUY7Bq4HVF_CVGMh0qA0/view

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

Ok I'll put something together for you by Thursday.   I need to know what your total allotment for betting is to put it together.  And a rough idea of your objectives are like biggest return, best bets, etc.  Like in any smart gambling trip it's a good idea ahead of time to have a budget or amount that you can play.  

Today's line, not much has changed.

I said five bucks on the winner and maybe another five bucks on the prop bets. That’s it. Really not that big of a deal just thought I’d go with your advice

[TexasAg1969]

@the-gipper said:

I said five bucks on the winner and maybe another five bucks on the prop bets. That’s it. Really not that big of a deal just thought I’d go with your advice

Take the over.

[Tour2ma]

What? No odds on the Skills Competition?

[mjp28]

Wagering suggestions for the Gipper's big Las Vegas adventure

First you will have to find a sportsbooks that does $5 wagers once you do that then:

1.  Since this is a pretty even Superbowl matchup pick your favorite team and put $5 to win, if it were me right now it would be SF +100.

2. For a prop bet  like the game MVP the odds on favorite now is Mahomes at +110 money line.  Or my pick if you think SF just might win this thing go Garoppolo at +200 to double your money.  (they can tell you what a $5 wager will pay)

Now if you feel a bit more daring and actually go for a long shot MVP canadidates for mo' money like:

T. Hill +1600  Kelce +1600. Kittle +2000   Or in the very overdue defensive player department like Bosa +5000 or Mathieu +5000

In any event you might win a little or have some losing souvenir betting tickets.  Have fun!

[Tour2ma]

@mjp28 said:

Kittle +2000

I'd have a hard time not taking a $20 flyer on Kittle.

I'd be tempted on Kelce, too, but have a hard time seeing him have a big game without Mahomes having an even bigger one.

[The Gipper]

@mjp28 said:

Wagering suggestions for the Gipper's big Las Vegas adventure

First you will have to find a sportsbooks that does $5 wagers once you do that then:

1.  Since this is a pretty even Superbowl matchup pick your favorite team and put $5 to win, if it were me right now it would be SF +100.

2. For a prop bet  like the game MVP the odds on favorite now is Mahomes at +110 money line.  Or my pick if you think SF just might win this thing go Garoppolo at +200 to double your money.  (they can tell you what a $5 wager will pay)

Now if you feel a bit more daring and actually go for a long shot MVP canadidates for mo' money like:

T. Hill +1600  Kelce +1600. Kittle +2000   Or in the very overdue defensive player department like Bosa +5000 or Mathieu +5000

In any event you might win a little or have some losing souvenir betting tickets.  Have fun!

Those numbers mean nothing to me