Virus models very inaccurate
-
I wonder what's to be gained by exaggerating the effects? John Prine also just recently cancelled a tour because of heart surgery and near the end of March was also diagnosed with double pneumonia.
WSS
If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death?
What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die?
If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death?
What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die?
I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think.
Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it?
Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer.
-
If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death?
What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die?
I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think.
Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it?
Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer.
I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think.
Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it?
Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer.
In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona?
And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition?
Ja.brill Peppers - Cleveland Brown OldBrownsFan, on 02 Jun 2017 - 5:09PM said: "No you are not the work of the devil but you are deceived by the devil." Who's got it better than us? Nooooobody! -
-
I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think.
Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it?
Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer.
In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona?
And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition?
In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona?
And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition?
No. Just looked it up.
Different preexisting conditions — including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and kidney disease — were found at varying rates among the patients who have died.
Remember how Italy is being hit hard.
Italy also reports about half of people who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317
-
I can't till we all start taking about football again ? instead of this. Just saying.
-
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
-
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
No it's really not clear.
The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america -
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
Without a doubt.
-
In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona?
And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition?
No. Just looked it up.
Different preexisting conditions — including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and kidney disease — were found at varying rates among the patients who have died.
Remember how Italy is being hit hard.
Italy also reports about half of people who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317
No. Just looked it up.
Different preexisting conditions — including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and kidney disease — were found at varying rates among the patients who have died.
Remember how Italy is being hit hard.
Italy also reports about half of people who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317
Right but what percentage of the population at large already has multiple pre existing conditions? How many people have 0 pre-existing conditions? I'm a healthy guy in his twenties but I have asthma. I imagine that counts.
Without knowing the population numbers as a whole regarding pre-existing conditions that stat above doesn't help us.
And then you could have diabetes and high blood pressure but expect to live another twenty years. Shouldn't Corona virus be listed as the cause of death?
-
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
No it's really not clear.
The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaNo it's really not clear.
The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaIt is though because it's the relative difference between two models showing different levels of social distancing that's important
-
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/491217-when-computer-models-create-mayhem
WSS
An opinion piece that moves into some climate change denier territory
The important take away is that the press will report more clickable numbers and people that don't know what they're looking at will eat it up. This doesn't discredit computer models or their purpose (or even their accuracy). It's just another example of taking the headline without the details or an understanding of the story and rolling with it
An opinion piece that moves into some climate change denier territory
How so? *Questioning the input data of any given model makes you a "denier"?* Well that's lazy terminology at best.
*-Not a direct quote from Woody. Implied only.
-
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
Two things that will define you: Your determination when you have nothing. Your attitude when you have everything. - Mike McCartney -
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
I presume they would have to test positive for covid to count. If you have a combo of the two, you almost certainly will contribute to the covid death stats.
-
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid?
Door swings both ways.
-
One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter.
No it's really not clear.
The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaNo it's really not clear.
The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaIn the link provided they discussed the percentage of people distancing. The smaller the % the worse the outcome.
-
-
How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic?
Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid?
Door swings both ways.
Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid?
Door swings both ways.
When you compare the number of deaths...that’s a very large door for seasonal flu.
-
Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid?
Door swings both ways.
When you compare the number of deaths...that’s a very large door for seasonal flu.
When you compare the number of deaths...that’s a very large door for seasonal flu.
When you extrapolate the number of deaths already vs over the course of a common flu season (about 20 weeks) the potential door for Covid was easily twice as large. Some here will hate it and claim they were "right", but the social distance measures are clearly working. We're seeing less cases per day already in parts of the country and rounding back into form faster than a smaller country such as Italy. It's entirely possible we might have a real handle on this in a few weeks. NYC, Detroit, Seattle, LA, DC... they're going to have a couple more rough weeks I'm sure. NYC especially as they just posted their highest single day death toll. But it's very possibly we may look at a sense of normalcy for for many of us come May. I attribute that to the hard work and "business like" attitude of so many Americans.
Passed a years worth of H1N1 deaths in just under 3 weeks. I'd say say we're very fortunate that we can see the glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel, even from right now. Still going to be 15,000 dead by Friday. Probably 30,000 before Summer even really kicks in. But compared to what we were looking at, I guess it's something of a "relief". Though I'm sure that brings no comfort those who lost somebody.
-
Hopefully these efforts will put major dents in models.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login