Baker Mayfield
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We're in trouble.
Excellent film breakdown on why Baker is garbage at 4:06 in the video.
No one here is saying Baker had no time to throw.
What's interesting about that tape is the amount of times I saw Pitt bluff one coverage pre-snap, then roll into cover 2 at the snap. Which is exactly what they did there and throughout the game.
Dan Orlovsky was obviously a pro QB and I'm positive he has more insight than me - Hell, I'd love to pick his brain. But on that stick/out you'd think Bakers eyes would, as I pointed out in the Baltimore game, notice the pre-snap tip to the field side/strength of the formation. That's Bud Dupree playing inbetween the #1 and #2 while Devin Bush is walked up over the B gap inside of Heyward.
WHY are you not looking to work that as your initial read? You have throwing windows based on leverage, positioning and route combination alone. Especially against an edge rusher who is more comfortable attacking and a 5'11 LB matched up on a 6'5 TE.
I'm noticing a trend where Baker tends to get in trouble and seems to lock his eyes at times - the boundary (short side) of the field. Why? Not entirely sure at the moment. I really need a week of vacation to go back and just pour through the last 6 weeks. Toss in the fact that I'm not sure he fully understands how to throw the ball to a larger receiver that can box out a defender with size and make contested catches. Either that or working the short game and 3 steps is just something he isn't comfortable with either. He certainly doesn't invoke memories of Brady dinking and dunking a defense to death at times.
I'm noticing a trend where Baker tends to get in trouble and seems to lock his eyes at times - the boundary (short side) of the field. Why? Not entirely sure at the moment.
2 months later after seeing that.. still not sure why he tends to do it at times. But it really, REALLY ends up being plays that absolutely fuck the offense/defense.
@jrb12711, per your request.
Another piece of evidence to add from the prosecution - From Monday night: Exhibit ...whatever letter this would be by now.
Remember Bakers 1st pick by the Ravens way back at the start of the season? In case you need a refresh. The Ravens bluffed a man pressure look and ended up rolling into a cover 6 with inverted zone dops underneath (backers pressured, lineman dropped) I broke it down below a bit more.
This is now twice the Ravens have invited Baker into this kind of throw and, as of typing, they're batting .1000 converting it into a turnover. The only difference is, now that ODB isn't running at the X, Baltimore was more than comfortable showing a ton of press man Monday night screaming at our receivers to beat them. At times they did and other times it was a mess between Baker locking in on juice, not getting separation or questionable throws. Keep in mind, we STILL put up 42 points. That's no easy task in the NFL. But those chunk passes didn't really start until the BLT DB's were knicked up.
Getting back to the Bowser pick. This is the same pre-snap man single high look that the Ravens showed week 1 like I mentioned above. The only difference is, there is no post snap zone look or rotation. It's a field side pressure from the slot and picked up in man coverage. Just like last time, the weakside edge is showing pressure and then playing the #2 (Chubb) from the backfield. Only he (TB) is green and free because when he see's the back cross the formation to pick up the pressure, he can now play the route as he see's fit. Which, with time and film study has shown that Baker LOVES the boundary throws in these looks and at times gets himself into trouble by keeping his eyes only to that side.
It's a great jump and play by Tyus. But why did he not attack a slant? Well, as I said he has no release threat to pick up and the CB to his side is playing inside leverage. Leverage meant specifically to eliminate his concern with dropping to his inside shoulder and playing said slant... which then allows him to instead fly outside with Bakers eyes, getting depth and width to pick off the deep curl.
While it is a great play, to think that this isn't something the Ravens were looking to coax Baker into, that this was going to be anything other than a pick - it's just pumping sunshine. This play was fucked from the snap. Baker should have double checked the 2pt LB on the edge because if he was so dead certain on throwing this ball pre-snap, then he HAS to know that man was the only one who could have effected this throw.
I love a confident Baker, but what I don't love is a confident Baker believing he knows everything before the ball is snapped. No QB, no good QB at least, lasts very long in this league trying to thread passes like that. The only redeeming grace to this was, if the ball had been placed further outside, it MAY have been an incomplete pass.
edit: And a theory on the locking eyes to the boundary - Baker either looking to further understand the coverage being thrown at him, or believing he already knows the coverage and where to go with the ball. Big issue with that is the short side of the field has less ground to cover. More ways for a defense to bluff you with a different variety of personnel and not worry about them being beaten in space.
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I'm noticing a trend where Baker tends to get in trouble and seems to lock his eyes at times - the boundary (short side) of the field. Why? Not entirely sure at the moment.
2 months later after seeing that.. still not sure why he tends to do it at times. But it really, REALLY ends up being plays that absolutely fuck the offense/defense.
@jrb12711, per your request.
Another piece of evidence to add from the prosecution - From Monday night: Exhibit ...whatever letter this would be by now.
Remember Bakers 1st pick by the Ravens way back at the start of the season? In case you need a refresh. The Ravens bluffed a man pressure look and ended up rolling into a cover 6 with inverted zone dops underneath (backers pressured, lineman dropped) I broke it down below a bit more.
This is now twice the Ravens have invited Baker into this kind of throw and, as of typing, they're batting .1000 converting it into a turnover. The only difference is, now that ODB isn't running at the X, Baltimore was more than comfortable showing a ton of press man Monday night screaming at our receivers to beat them. At times they did and other times it was a mess between Baker locking in on juice, not getting separation or questionable throws. Keep in mind, we STILL put up 42 points. That's no easy task in the NFL. But those chunk passes didn't really start until the BLT DB's were knicked up.
Getting back to the Bowser pick. This is the same pre-snap man single high look that the Ravens showed week 1 like I mentioned above. The only difference is, there is no post snap zone look or rotation. It's a field side pressure from the slot and picked up in man coverage. Just like last time, the weakside edge is showing pressure and then playing the #2 (Chubb) from the backfield. Only he (TB) is green and free because when he see's the back cross the formation to pick up the pressure, he can now play the route as he see's fit. Which, with time and film study has shown that Baker LOVES the boundary throws in these looks and at times gets himself into trouble by keeping his eyes only to that side.
It's a great jump and play by Tyus. But why did he not attack a slant? Well, as I said he has no release threat to pick up and the CB to his side is playing inside leverage. Leverage meant specifically to eliminate his concern with dropping to his inside shoulder and playing said slant... which then allows him to instead fly outside with Bakers eyes, getting depth and width to pick off the deep curl.
While it is a great play, to think that this isn't something the Ravens were looking to coax Baker into, that this was going to be anything other than a pick - it's just pumping sunshine. This play was fucked from the snap. Baker should have double checked the 2pt LB on the edge because if he was so dead certain on throwing this ball pre-snap, then he HAS to know that man was the only one who could have effected this throw.
I love a confident Baker, but what I don't love is a confident Baker believing he knows everything before the ball is snapped. No QB, no good QB at least, lasts very long in this league trying to thread passes like that. The only redeeming grace to this was, if the ball had been placed further outside, it MAY have been an incomplete pass.
edit: And a theory on the locking eyes to the boundary - Baker either looking to further understand the coverage being thrown at him, or believing he already knows the coverage and where to go with the ball. Big issue with that is the short side of the field has less ground to cover. More ways for a defense to bluff you with a different variety of personnel and not worry about them being beaten in space.
... to think that this isn't something the Ravens were looking to coax Baker into...
Agree... There was a better angle in a replay, a Sky-cam one from behind Baker, but if you look at the RDE's "rush", you see he's stacking Willis high with Bito joining to dbl. I thought at the time that this took away Baker's vision of Bowser's retreat and I still do.
Here Baker is just hitting his back foot at the top of his drop and Bowser is already running, head turned, to a spot. At this point not only does Baker not see Bowser, he can't see him.
What I thought was an unfortunate circumstance at the time now seems more and more like a designed circumstance.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
... to think that this isn't something the Ravens were looking to coax Baker into...
Agree... There was a better angle in a replay, a Sky-cam one from behind Baker, but if you look at the RDE's "rush", you see he's stacking Willis high with Bito joining to dbl. I thought at the time that this took away Baker's vision of Bowser's retreat and I still do.
Here Baker is just hitting his back foot at the top of his drop and Bowser is already running, head turned, to a spot. At this point not only does Baker not see Bowser, he can't see him.
What I thought was an unfortunate circumstance at the time now seems more and more like a designed circumstance.
Here Baker is just hitting his back foot at the top of his drop and Bowser is already running, head turned, to a spot. At this point not only does Baker not see Bowser, he can't see him.
Yeah, it was really unfortunate. The film breakdown I saw said Baker was really feeling himself and thought he could squeeze it in low to Higgins, but he missed his mark. The thought being either Higgins gets it or the Ravens knock it down. The ball took a bad bounce and he made a heck of a play. It was the difference in the game. They made a play on defense, we never did.
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Either Baker got a case of the stupids on that play, or he's blind as Stevie Wonder.
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Either Baker got a case of the stupids on that play, or he's blind as Stevie Wonder.
Either Baker got a case of the stupids on that play, or he's blind as Stevie Wonder.
How do you figure that?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Either Baker got a case of the stupids on that play, or he's blind as Stevie Wonder.
How do you figure that?
How do you figure that?
?
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You're going to need to paraphrase that.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
The replay from Baker's back perepctive showed that he couldn't see him. The problem is that Baker, as soon as he didn't see him, should have suspected something: his LT and LG were facing a single rusher instead of the two that were showing up at the LOS presnap.
This one is not as blatant as for example Fitzpatrick's pick but it's a killer anyway.
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Off topic, friend of mine linked me this.
I was honestly crying at one point. And in today's world, we could all use a laugh.
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Baker is slinging the rock and playing out of his mind right now. The last 3 weeks it’s been a dude from 2018 back there.
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Baker is slinging the rock and playing out of his mind right now. The last 3 weeks it’s been a dude from 2018 back there.
Baker is slinging the rock and playing out of his mind right now. The last 3 weeks it’s been a dude from 2018 back there.
Hopefully hes a dude through 2030!!
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Baker is slinging the rock and playing out of his mind right now. The last 3 weeks it’s been a dude from 2018 back there.
Hopefully hes a dude through 2030!!
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It's interesting to see how much better Mayfield is starting to play. There have definitely been points where I questioned whether or not he was going to be the man or not. I think it is a combination of him actually having coaching, growing up, and becoming more comfortable in the offense which has resulted in better play as of late. As much as we want Patrick Mahomes, I'm not sure he will ever be that...and IMOP, that's perfectly fine. My question/concern, is how do you pay him moving forward? We all know how the qb market works and everyone trying to reset the bar. Do you think the browns should wait until after next year to try and resign (potential franchise tag following year) or offer him a Ryan Tannehill type now? Is that enough to get it done? The question is does he deserve "elite" starter money or really good money? I don't think he belongs in the Mahomes/Watson category, but he is better than Kirk Cousins(Side note has made over $140 mil-God bless him)/Garappolo category. Also, they are going to still need to sign Ward/Chubb/Richardson, etc. in the next few years and their cap space is quickly going to be gone. Hopefully, Mayfield recognizes that Stefanski is the best thing to happen to him (ala Drew Brees and Sean Payton) and it may take a little less to make the team better (aka Tom Brady). If the Browns continue to win and dare I say ever win a SB, his endorsements are going to go through the roof.
The Tannehill contract is worth 4 years, $118 million with an average of $29.5 million guaranteed per year, according to ESPN's Jeff Darlington. The deal has $62 million fully guaranteed and $91 million total guaranteed. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/ryan-tannehill-9818/
NFL's highest paid quarterbacks (average salary per year):
1. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: $45 million
2. Texans QB Deshaun Watson: $39 million
2. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson: $35 million
3. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: $34 million
4.Packers QB Aaron Rodgers: $33.5 million
4. Rams QB Jared Goff: $33.5 million
6. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: $33 million
7. Eagles QB Carson Wentz: $32 million
8. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: $$30.1 million
0. Falcons QB Matt Ryan: $30 million
10. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million
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I'm ready to go with baker as the franchise QB. I am not sure what more some of you guys want here.
Early man walked away as modern man took control. Their minds weren't all the same and to conquer was their goal. So He built his great empires and he slaughtered his own kind, and he died a confused man and killed himself in his own mind... -
I'm ready to go with baker as the franchise QB. I am not sure what more some of you guys want here.
I'm ready to go with baker as the franchise QB. I am not sure what more some of you guys want here.
I am too. The question is what is his value on the market? I think the Freddie Kitchen disaster proved he is very much a system QB, which is not a bad thing. He's just not transcendent like Rogers, Mahomes, Watson where it does not matter who is coaching and calling plays. I'm hoping all parties involved recognize this.
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I’m reasonably convinced. I wouldn’t expect any movement on an extension until after the season though, preferable the second week of February. Doing it before that would just be a distraction.
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It's interesting to see how much better Mayfield is starting to play. There have definitely been points where I questioned whether or not he was going to be the man or not. I think it is a combination of him actually having coaching, growing up, and becoming more comfortable in the offense which has resulted in better play as of late. As much as we want Patrick Mahomes, I'm not sure he will ever be that...and IMOP, that's perfectly fine. My question/concern, is how do you pay him moving forward? We all know how the qb market works and everyone trying to reset the bar. Do you think the browns should wait until after next year to try and resign (potential franchise tag following year) or offer him a Ryan Tannehill type now? Is that enough to get it done? The question is does he deserve "elite" starter money or really good money? I don't think he belongs in the Mahomes/Watson category, but he is better than Kirk Cousins(Side note has made over $140 mil-God bless him)/Garappolo category. Also, they are going to still need to sign Ward/Chubb/Richardson, etc. in the next few years and their cap space is quickly going to be gone. Hopefully, Mayfield recognizes that Stefanski is the best thing to happen to him (ala Drew Brees and Sean Payton) and it may take a little less to make the team better (aka Tom Brady). If the Browns continue to win and dare I say ever win a SB, his endorsements are going to go through the roof.
The Tannehill contract is worth 4 years, $118 million with an average of $29.5 million guaranteed per year, according to ESPN's Jeff Darlington. The deal has $62 million fully guaranteed and $91 million total guaranteed. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/ryan-tannehill-9818/
NFL's highest paid quarterbacks (average salary per year):
1. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: $45 million
2. Texans QB Deshaun Watson: $39 million
2. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson: $35 million
3. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: $34 million
4.Packers QB Aaron Rodgers: $33.5 million
4. Rams QB Jared Goff: $33.5 million
6. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: $33 million
7. Eagles QB Carson Wentz: $32 million
8. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: $$30.1 million
0. Falcons QB Matt Ryan: $30 million
10. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million
It's interesting to see how much better Mayfield is starting to play. There have definitely been points where I questioned whether or not he was going to be the man or not. I think it is a combination of him actually having coaching, growing up, and becoming more comfortable in the offense which has resulted in better play as of late. As much as we want Patrick Mahomes, I'm not sure he will ever be that...and IMOP, that's perfectly fine. My question/concern, is how do you pay him moving forward? We all know how the qb market works and everyone trying to reset the bar. Do you think the browns should wait until after next year to try and resign (potential franchise tag following year) or offer him a Ryan Tannehill type now? Is that enough to get it done? The question is does he deserve "elite" starter money or really good money? I don't think he belongs in the Mahomes/Watson category, but he is better than Kirk Cousins(Side note has made over $140 mil-God bless him)/Garappolo category. Also, they are going to still need to sign Ward/Chubb/Richardson, etc. in the next few years and their cap space is quickly going to be gone. Hopefully, Mayfield recognizes that Stefanski is the best thing to happen to him (ala Drew Brees and Sean Payton) and it may take a little less to make the team better (aka Tom Brady). If the Browns continue to win and dare I say ever win a SB, his endorsements are going to go through the roof.
The Tannehill contract is worth 4 years, $118 million with an average of $29.5 million guaranteed per year, according to ESPN's Jeff Darlington. The deal has $62 million fully guaranteed and $91 million total guaranteed. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/ryan-tannehill-9818/
NFL's highest paid quarterbacks (average salary per year):
1. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: $45 million
2. Texans QB Deshaun Watson: $39 million
2. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson: $35 million
3. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: $34 million
4.Packers QB Aaron Rodgers: $33.5 million
4. Rams QB Jared Goff: $33.5 million
6. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: $33 million
7. Eagles QB Carson Wentz: $32 million
8. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: $$30.1 million
0. Falcons QB Matt Ryan: $30 million
10. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million
I have no interest whatsoever in worrying about "paying him at this point"
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I'm convinced now as well. Since the mid point of the season Baker has been getting better each week, and while I don't think he'll ever be one of the elite QBs in the league (top 3), I do think he is going to be in that next level of 4-8 for a long time, and once the defense is even halfway fixed, he is going to have us battling for the division title year after year.
Serious props to Baker for growing up this season both on, and especially off the field. We have our QB, and more importantly, we have our Head Coach.
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The interesting thing to me is how Baker can beat you in a number of ways. Early on it was the game manager routine, and nobody thought he could win games when the team was down. Then he beat Cincy by literally being perfect for 3 quarters and many said, "it's just the Bengals." Then Baker continues to trend in a positive direction and shows he can not only beat you in several ways, but you can TRUST him to take care of the ball.
He can air it out, grind it out, or do anything in between. I remember at the beginning of the season I'd be terrified to see us in empty formation. Now, I rub my hands together in anticipation because I know that my qb and coach have something special for that ass. How many coaches do you see begin a play in 3 TE sets, then motion everyone out to create the empty set? I can't think of too many. And it's not for show either. Coach does it for a reason. Baker is now adept at under center, play-action passing, and shotgun.
What's Baker's latest development? Two things: finding Kareem Hunt much cleaner out of the backfield, and scrambling for first downs and TDs. He's still not perfect, obviously. Against the Ravens Baker fired a crucial 3rd and 4 pass at Harrison Bryant at about 237 mph from 5 ft away. I honestly don't think Baker meant to throw it because he saw Kareem Hunt bust free down the field for an EASY 60 yard TD. I think Baker saw it, brain farted, and then quickly rushed a terrible pass to Bryant. There was also another play, possibly against the Ravens or Jags, where Baker had a 3rd or 4th and 3 and had a wide ass open lane to run, but fired a wheel route down the field to Hunt who got BLOWN up and almost injured. Again, not perfect, but boy is he getting freaking CLOSE.
I'm very proud of him for so many things. Proud that he gave up the social media crap and focused on his play. Proud that he transformed his body and came in on shape. For being receptive to altering his footwork and believing in the process. For gutting out hard fought wins in awful playing conditions and never once throwing his team under the bus for not being able to play defense or for dropping passes. Remember everyone, this is the guy who stood at a podium before the draft and WANTED to come here. He said he was the guy Cleveland needed to turn it around. That made me want him worse than I've ever wanted a player. I literally screamed when we drafted him and my wife came sprinting into the living room.
The future is now...and we waited long enough for it.
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I'm ready to go with baker as the franchise QB. I am not sure what more some of you guys want here.
I am too. The question is what is his value on the market? I think the Freddie Kitchen disaster proved he is very much a system QB, which is not a bad thing. He's just not transcendent like Rogers, Mahomes, Watson where it does not matter who is coaching and calling plays. I'm hoping all parties involved recognize this.
I am too. The question is what is his value on the market? I think the Freddie Kitchen disaster proved he is very much a system QB, which is not a bad thing. He's just not transcendent like Rogers, Mahomes, Watson where it does not matter who is coaching and calling plays. I'm hoping all parties involved recognize this.
You drawing a line that no player is going to honor. This is Baker's first big contract coming up (who knows if he gets another?) and he'll demand market value.
If Baker keeps playing the way he has been, then he's going to get top 5 money. As of now that'd be somewhere in the $35mm/yr area code. The question is how much does top-5 money move between now and when we get ready to ink him long term.
There's only one BIG name in the 2021 off-season, Dak Prescott, and we know he's not likely to raise the ante much, if any. Dak sets an example to Baker of how not to let your contract situation develop.
2022? Whole different ball game with contract extensions getting done for both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson... as well as Baker. And trust me... none of them are going to want to sign first. llA can be retained if their 5th-year options are exercised... and they all will be.
Also in 2022's FA class are vets Brady, Big Ben and Brees. While none are likely to bend the salary curve in one more deal, all may retire. If any or all do retire, then they create a chunk of cap space for their team(s). One or more may then chose to wait a year for one or more of the three kids to hit FA in 2023.
Of course there's always the franchise tag... just ask Dak...
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