Third Round QBs
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nmills said:
Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.
Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.
Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.
Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.
Well, look at the programs. They always win a lot of games. You start a lot of games for Texas, Georgia, USC, Alabama, etc., chances are you're gonna win a lot of them.
Again, I find it interesting to look at quarterbacks who find success for the teams that actually drafted them, given that's what we're hoping for with McCoy (and yes, I'm hoping for it). As far as guys picked after round one, only Romo and Brady have gone onto significant success for their original team. We'll see how Kolb and Henne do. I've always thought round 2 was a weird black hole for QBs, because the 2nd round talents usually get pushed up into round one because of the position.
No doubt that development time/opportunity disrupts the data. Most guys drafted after round 2 are NOT looked at as probable starters. There might be a glimmer of hope, but QBs drafted that late are usually headed to teams who already have a quarterback, not teams desperately needing a starter. Which explains why they tend to find success with other teams (Schaub, Hasselbeck).
There really isn't a very good history for third round picks doing anything with their first teams. Frye, Walter, Edwards, and Orton were all given extensive opportunities with their first teams and didn't look like steals. The Browns have tried to make starters of third rounders twice -- Zeier and Frye -- and it didn't work out either time.
Yes, statistically speaking, quarterback is the most first-round-centric position in the NFL. BUT... Holmgren is devising a fairly unique situation for McCoy. He believes he was worthy of a higher pick and was a steal at 85, but acknowledges that he needs time to physically and experientially grow into an NFL quarterback (he's small, light in the arm, and played in a non-pro offense). He's looking at it like a bit of a science project. He thinks McCoy's athleticism, football smarts, and accuracy are tailor made for the WCO we may or may not be playing by 2011 or 2012, but I'd bet on will be playing.
And by the time a new offense is installed, Holmgren envisions McCoy as ready and eager to take the wheel. We'll see.
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Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.
Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.
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Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.
Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.
Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.
Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.
I think he was saying "as a general rule". Sure there are exceptions, but they are rarer these days. There is probably better scouting now, and the likes of Sipe, Starr, Unitas beig drafted in late late rounds may not happen as much now as then. A few obvious ones fall through the cracks: Brady, Romo, Kurt Warner. But, in probably 7 or 8 cases out of 10 you are going to get your superstar QB in the first round. (Its just that the odds are 50/50 that the first rounder you take will live up to the choice. Just look at that list)
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Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!
Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!
Thanks! I watched this cool Top 10 QB Tandem's thing on NFL Network, and that was I think #3 on the list, but its been several months and forgot the other guy.
Funny thing is, Van Brocklin seems to be the guy most people talk about, but from what I remember of the show, Waterfield was the better QB.
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On another thread it was stated that we shouldn't get our hopes up over a QB drafted in the third round. I pointed out that the likes of Joe Montana, Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were third round choices. Well, let's see what the 3rd round QB choices have looked like in the last, say 15 years. Here is the list of all the QBs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft between 1995 and 2009. Let us know how you think they have fared:
Eric Zeier, Cleveland
Stoney Case, Ariz.
Bobby Hoying, Phil.
Brian Griese, Denver
Jonathan Quinn, Jax.
Brock Huard Seattle
Chris Redman, Baltimore
Giovanni Carmazzi, SF
Josh McCown, Ariz.
Chris Simms, Tampa
Dave Ragone, Hou.
Matt Schaub, Atl.
David Green, Sea
Andrew Walter, Oak
Charlie Frye, Cle
Brody Croyle, KC
Charlie Whitehurst, SD
Trent Edwards, Buff.
Kevin O'Connell NE
I'll be honest with you, I don't see a star QB in that entire bunch. About the only one that might reach that status is Schaub. Griese was OK for a bit, but fell back.
Showing this list doesn't make one optimistic about McCoy. But, who knows. Lightning might strike.
What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????
What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????
The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier! 🥷
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Of course those numbers can be skewed by the fact that more games are being played now by colleges.
Whatever happened to David Greene? He may have been no better than Cornelius Greene.
Well, look at the programs. They always win a lot of games. You start a lot of games for Texas, Georgia, USC, Alabama, etc., chances are you're gonna win a lot of them.
Again, I find it interesting to look at quarterbacks who find success for the teams that actually drafted them, given that's what we're hoping for with McCoy (and yes, I'm hoping for it). As far as guys picked after round one, only Romo and Brady have gone onto significant success for their original team. We'll see how Kolb and Henne do. I've always thought round 2 was a weird black hole for QBs, because the 2nd round talents usually get pushed up into round one because of the position.
No doubt that development time/opportunity disrupts the data. Most guys drafted after round 2 are NOT looked at as probable starters. There might be a glimmer of hope, but QBs drafted that late are usually headed to teams who already have a quarterback, not teams desperately needing a starter. Which explains why they tend to find success with other teams (Schaub, Hasselbeck).
There really isn't a very good history for third round picks doing anything with their first teams. Frye, Walter, Edwards, and Orton were all given extensive opportunities with their first teams and didn't look like steals. The Browns have tried to make starters of third rounders twice -- Zeier and Frye -- and it didn't work out either time.
Yes, statistically speaking, quarterback is the most first-round-centric position in the NFL. BUT... Holmgren is devising a fairly unique situation for McCoy. He believes he was worthy of a higher pick and was a steal at 85, but acknowledges that he needs time to physically and experientially grow into an NFL quarterback (he's small, light in the arm, and played in a non-pro offense). He's looking at it like a bit of a science project. He thinks McCoy's athleticism, football smarts, and accuracy are tailor made for the WCO we may or may not be playing by 2011 or 2012, but I'd bet on will be playing.
And by the time a new offense is installed, Holmgren envisions McCoy as ready and eager to take the wheel. We'll see.
And by the time a new offense is installed, Holmgren envisions McCoy as ready and eager to take the wheel. We'll see.
There is absolutely no evidence, that should our offense be even slightly successful by showing improvement and progress, and both Mangini and Daboll prove their worth, that we will change our offensive scheme. In my mind, changing scheme just to change it, when you have the pieces in place that make the old scheme work, is ludicrous.
Making comments that intimate that the scheme is going to change is stupid.
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What is the point since about 20 first round QB's won the Bowl so far..........????????????????????
The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier! 🥷
The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier! 🥷
I'll take a stab at that one:
1) Bring him along slowly, like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. {By all accounts, this is going to happen at least for 2010}
2) Give him a good mentoring veteran QB to help him along. {Delhomme is this for showing leadership and moxy... we will see if he shows him how to play}
3) Give him excellent pass protection so he can grow into the decision making process without having to be afraid he's going to be broken. {The left side is done, lets home the right side gels}
4) Give him a good running game so that play action passing actually works. {#8 in the league rushing over the last 8 games of 2009. Seems that our rushing attack will be better this year.}
5) Give him a good group of WR's that actually will catch the ball and make him look good with circus catches and excellent adjustment on long balls. {jury is way out still on this one. Although I suppose Tom Brady didn't need this}
6) Give him an OC that will develop the playbook around what he does well (like Sean Payton and Drew Brees) rather than force the QB to run plays he doesn't like or isn't very good at. {Not sure this will happen, as only a few guys do this despite how effective its proven}
7) Give him a QB coach that won't try to completely change his mechanics if (NOTE: I said IF) they work simply because. Just try to enhance what already works and focus on footwork, good decision making, and chemistry with your WR's.
That's my 7-step process to turning a rookie QB into a star.
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Note to Thaak. The LA Rams did use a platoon QB system with Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield. And, FYI, both were inducted into the PFHOF!
Thanks! I watched this cool Top 10 QB Tandem's thing on NFL Network, and that was I think #3 on the list, but its been several months and forgot the other guy.
Funny thing is, Van Brocklin seems to be the guy most people talk about, but from what I remember of the show, Waterfield was the better QB.
Thanks! I watched this cool Top 10 QB Tandem's thing on NFL Network, and that was I think #3 on the list, but its been several months and forgot the other guy.
Funny thing is, Van Brocklin seems to be the guy most people talk about, but from what I remember of the show, Waterfield was the better QB.
Bob Waterfield was the QB for the Rams when they won the 1945 NFL title in Cleveland. In 1950 when the Browns beat the Rams for the NFL title, and again in 1951 when the Rams beat the Browns, Waterfield and Van Brocklin literally shared about 50/50 the QB duties for the Rams. In 1950 Van Brocklin had 233 pass attempts to 213 for Waterfield and in 1951 Van Brocklin had 194 passes and Waterfield 176. In 1952 however Van Brocklin had double the attempts that Waterfield had and by 1953 Waterfield was gone from the Rams. But, for a couple or three years it was a very successful QB tandem, winning one title and losing one that way.
Waterfield was also apparently a big ladies man with the Hollywood starlets. I believe he was dating Jane Russell for a while. He probably got practice handling the football by grabbing her boobs, each of which was about the size of a football.
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I know we have been through this before some time back.....take Tarkenton as an example....his draft slot when he was drafted(not going to look up the exacts) would have made him a late first rounder today when taking in to account the number of teams drafting players....maybe a 12 team league v a 32 team league.
But I agree...lightening can strike twice, so lets see how it works out.
I will say that if things go sour this year and we have a shot at a top QB next year, I wouldn't let Colt sway my opinion and keep from drafting him.
So what if you end up with 2 good QBs....QB's always draw a premium in a trade.
Peen, one of the reasons I only went back to 1995 was because of the situation you describe: the expanded number of teams drafting. Though I think in Tarkenton's case he would have been a mid to early second rounder today given his draft position.
Peen, one of the reasons I only went back to 1995 was because of the situation you describe: the expanded number of teams drafting. Though I think in Tarkenton's case he would have been a mid to early second rounder today given his draft position.
Everything I find shows Fran drafted in the 29th slot of the draft. Is there something I am missing here??
If he was the 29th player taken this past draft he would have been selected in the 1st round.
But more on the point of the thread....Colt fell for a reason just as Brady Q fell...and we found out why, so I am not going to get all excited over the guy. I am hopeful he plays well.
So far he has passed all the tests in HS and college.....now he has to pass the NFl test...maybe he becomes a Montana type, maybe a frye type.
Odds are it will be closer to Frye, but here's hoping not.
Cheers!
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. -
Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.
Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.
Hate to burst your bubble Shep, but Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick who had some success with the team that drafted him.
Brian Sipe was a 17th rounder. Bart Starr 18th.
C'mon, man. Do you think my bubble is that burstable?
The discussion has been about drafts since 1995. I think going back to the 80s is too far, frankly, because the league changes too much to compare trends or players from other eras. Hell, I think you have to look at the last decade for most topics.
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The point is to ponder the odds of the potential future success of our recent 3rd round QB selection. With a few exceptions the 3rd round QBs denoted here have not been greatly successful NFL QBs. Hopefully, we will have hooked one of those rare exceptions. What you can do for us is to advise us on what steps the Browns need to take to assure that McCoy is indeed one of those successes. You have your mission soldier! 🥷
I'll take a stab at that one:
1) Bring him along slowly, like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. {By all accounts, this is going to happen at least for 2010}
2) Give him a good mentoring veteran QB to help him along. {Delhomme is this for showing leadership and moxy... we will see if he shows him how to play}
3) Give him excellent pass protection so he can grow into the decision making process without having to be afraid he's going to be broken. {The left side is done, lets home the right side gels}
4) Give him a good running game so that play action passing actually works. {#8 in the league rushing over the last 8 games of 2009. Seems that our rushing attack will be better this year.}
5) Give him a good group of WR's that actually will catch the ball and make him look good with circus catches and excellent adjustment on long balls. {jury is way out still on this one. Although I suppose Tom Brady didn't need this}
6) Give him an OC that will develop the playbook around what he does well (like Sean Payton and Drew Brees) rather than force the QB to run plays he doesn't like or isn't very good at. {Not sure this will happen, as only a few guys do this despite how effective its proven}
7) Give him a QB coach that won't try to completely change his mechanics if (NOTE: I said IF) they work simply because. Just try to enhance what already works and focus on footwork, good decision making, and chemistry with your WR's.
That's my 7-step process to turning a rookie QB into a star.
I think all of those things can help a quarterback be the best of what he is... but those environmental advantages don't create a great quarterback. They aren't tofu. The main reason a quarterback is great... is that he's great.
I'll take a stab at that one:
1) Bring him along slowly, like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. {By all accounts, this is going to happen at least for 2010}
2) Give him a good mentoring veteran QB to help him along. {Delhomme is this for showing leadership and moxy... we will see if he shows him how to play}
3) Give him excellent pass protection so he can grow into the decision making process without having to be afraid he's going to be broken. {The left side is done, lets home the right side gels}
4) Give him a good running game so that play action passing actually works. {#8 in the league rushing over the last 8 games of 2009. Seems that our rushing attack will be better this year.}
5) Give him a good group of WR's that actually will catch the ball and make him look good with circus catches and excellent adjustment on long balls. {jury is way out still on this one. Although I suppose Tom Brady didn't need this}
6) Give him an OC that will develop the playbook around what he does well (like Sean Payton and Drew Brees) rather than force the QB to run plays he doesn't like or isn't very good at. {Not sure this will happen, as only a few guys do this despite how effective its proven}
7) Give him a QB coach that won't try to completely change his mechanics if (NOTE: I said IF) they work simply because. Just try to enhance what already works and focus on footwork, good decision making, and chemistry with your WR's.
That's my 7-step process to turning a rookie QB into a star.
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People use the word great to often . It has taken something away from our language if you ask me .
NewEraDawg -
1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
1. First round quarterbacks are guaranteed more development, based on the desire to recoup the initial investment.
2. Most of the quarterbacks drafted in earlier rounds were better at the position IN COLLEGE than quarterbacks drafted in later rounds. Colt McCoy is one of the few stud college QBs whose draft stock slid. He's better than most other quarterbacks that wound up being third round picks.
3. This type of analysis can only show correlation; we need to understand what causes quarterbacks to be successful vs. busts. Even the best draft scouts can't do this reliably, which is why you see guys like Tom Brady become so successful, and guys like Ryan Leaf fail.
Bottom line? No idea if Colt will be successful, but it certainly could be argued that he has a much bigger chance than most of the other 3rd round picks on the list.
Excellent analysis. The knocks on Colt are ambiguous.........too short.......not a big enough gun.........and why he slipped most "what have you done lately".............like going sidelines in the NC game. Boom he lost at least one round and maybe two because of the National Championship game. Because when it comes down to it a lot of genius talent evaluators are no better than US.............but they are risk adverse to bad decisions............mucho bucks lost..........thus they go conservative and pick the latest wizard
My simple analysis......he does like Montana did........WINS games...........that is the most important stat of all...........because in Crunch time the QB needs to make plays......like he did a year plus ago to OSU in the last seconds of the game.......great read great pass and boom TD
Meanwhile the pundits do their thing and the coaches and scouts in job preservation go "what have you done lately" Like JaMarrcus Russell a lousy QB in college and an out of body experience in the Sugar Bowl.........top pick and dumber than brick.......but a marvelous physique and 80 yard cannon arm........bingo top pick.......folks this isn't so hard.....draft skill players who make impacts and have a brain.........and let the fools go for physique and trenches...
and that is why they call it the Not For Long league
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I'm not concerned about where McCoy was drafted. Given his performance in college, his INDICATED future in the NFL looks pretty good. I think this is why MH pulled the trigger at pick 85. With his INDICATED ability to play in the NFL effectively, I think the Browns got a bargain.
BTW, I realize this is a qb thread, but with the lists being thrown aroun, I wonder what the same breakouts would show for linebackers, offensive linemen, wide receivers, etc.
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IMO the best stat to measure a QB's future success is from come from behind wins. Its tells your ability to run an offense, your leadership, your poise under pressure, anything you wanna know about a QB can be seen then. Thats why
Ricki Stanzi is the next great NFL QB. -
Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.
45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
nmills said:
Here's the top 5 QB's with most wins in NCAA career.45--Colt McCoy--Texas
42--David Greene--Georgia
39--Peyton Manning--Tennessee
38--Ken Dorsey--Miami (Fla)
37--Dan Marino--Pittsburgh
Two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL are on that list, hopefully he can make it 3
Now, that's a list to inspire some optimism
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And to think we let Ken Dorsey slip through our fingers .
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I think all of those things can help a quarterback be the best of what he is... but those environmental advantages don't create a great quarterback. They aren't tofu. The main reason a quarterback is great... is that he's great.
I'll take a stab at that one:
1) Bring him along slowly, like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers. {By all accounts, this is going to happen at least for 2010}
2) Give him a good mentoring veteran QB to help him along. {Delhomme is this for showing leadership and moxy... we will see if he shows him how to play}
3) Give him excellent pass protection so he can grow into the decision making process without having to be afraid he's going to be broken. {The left side is done, lets home the right side gels}
4) Give him a good running game so that play action passing actually works. {#8 in the league rushing over the last 8 games of 2009. Seems that our rushing attack will be better this year.}
5) Give him a good group of WR's that actually will catch the ball and make him look good with circus catches and excellent adjustment on long balls. {jury is way out still on this one. Although I suppose Tom Brady didn't need this}
6) Give him an OC that will develop the playbook around what he does well (like Sean Payton and Drew Brees) rather than force the QB to run plays he doesn't like or isn't very good at. {Not sure this will happen, as only a few guys do this despite how effective its proven}
7) Give him a QB coach that won't try to completely change his mechanics if (NOTE: I said IF) they work simply because. Just try to enhance what already works and focus on footwork, good decision making, and chemistry with your WR's.
That's my 7-step process to turning a rookie QB into a star.
I think all of those things can help a quarterback be the best of what he is... but those environmental advantages don't create a great quarterback. They aren't tofu. The main reason a quarterback is great... is that he's great.
Generally, I don't disagree with this. But many potentially great QB's were ruined because of less than ideal situations, systems, and coaching decisions.
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I think all of those things can help a quarterback be the best of what he is... but those environmental advantages don't create a great quarterback. They aren't tofu. The main reason a quarterback is great... is that he's great.
Generally, I don't disagree with this. But many potentially great QB's were ruined because of less than ideal situations, systems, and coaching decisions.
Generally, I don't disagree with this. But many potentially great QB's were ruined because of less than ideal situations, systems, and coaching decisions.
I think we're in agreement.
Think of Orton last year: Absolutely PERFECT situation. Great protection, great running game, great receivers, great offensive coach, and he's been around a while, gained some experience. Oh, and he was healthy all year.
Given all those advantages... he was okay. He was the best that Kyle Orton can be, or at least it seems that way.
What would a really GOOD quarterback have done with all that gravy?
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Zombo said:
I guess we'll find out now that your man Quinn is in town.Zombo
And he wonders why nobody want's to listen about who he thinks the Browns should of drafted. The last guy he thought was great had a total of what, 16 completed passes in his last 2 games?. Yea, he really knows talent when he see's it.
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