Run defense - player breakout/ratings

Opal312

What an excellent breakdown! You might consider creating your own website because this is a better read than anywhere else I go.

Mudfly

Thanks Opel...

Ok...now gonna do some Line backer break out, as it seems they all have their traits and its a position in flex and one where we are trying to see how Pettine uses them overall...(or at least I am)...

First, to keep it simple...they are rated in 3 areas, plus the combined overall score....Run D, Pass D & Pass Rush...

You can clearly see that each LB has pretty clearly defined strengths and weaknesses...which, to put it another way, means they are almost all "specialists"...or kind of one dimensional in how they are used....

First, lets give credit where it's due...our #1 rated linebacker(by a mile) was Dansby +13.9 (a GREAT signing too)...Not only is he our best LB, but he is still a top 10 type of talent......and the main reason he is #1 rated is that he is the most versatile and, probably, the only true 3 down backer we have. He scores well in all catagories(no negatives) and is therefore our most complete backer. His primary job in our D is to cover TE's and backs and spy pass routes, then come up if needed for the run stop....and his ratings support this with off the charts "pass d" numbers, which have him tied as the #2 coverage LB in the NFL. And he was able to maintain this super high pass coverage rating, while still having to mind the run because of our terrible line...

The next 2 Im gonna cover are Sheard +8.2 and Kruger +9.8, who both also earned very nice scores in the green and, at a glance, look very similar(at least score wise). The interesting contrast here is that Krugers score is ALL pass rush, while Sheards score is ALL run stop. In fact, Kruger was +12 as a pass rusher, but earned negatives in run stop. And Sheard had the teams highest run stop #'s, but have very average coverage/pass rush. It's pretty clear that Pettine likes Kruger as a bull rusher, but he is limited beyond that and he used Dansby and Sheard as the more flexible backers and moveable parts....other notable(interesting) stats on the 2 are that Sheard is an excellent tackler and only missed 2 the entire season....THAT is an amazing stat....conversely, Kruger was the LB that had the most missed tackles with 13....(surprised?).....

Robertson +2.2 get's his own paragraph just because. He's a kind of vanilla - average player, but in a solid good way. A lot of middling players get "avg" grades(+0) by playing great one day(+5) and terrible one day(-5) to get a middling grade. But Robertson is one who seems to never be great or terrible. Just a steady average player(which is ok, I think)....I'd consider him a Chevy - wont win many races, but wont completely let you down either.....But really, his performance is fairly bland and there are no real strengths or glaring weaknesses to point out....I will note that he had to fill in for Dansby for a 4 week period and, though he did pretty well, his scores were really low for those games(esp in pass coverage). So I think relieving Dansby hurt his overall score.

The last 2 gonna cover are the most interesting and, I think, will surprise some and create a little debate. They are the 2 youngsters Mingo +8.6 and Kirksey -3.8, who Id say are ranked the opposite of what most people might guess(at least based upon what I hear people say here). I know I was surprised by what I found....but once I dug in and went back game to game, my final perspective is a little different than what I felt at the end of the season. Kirksey really did well in a couple preseason games, but really never found that flair again during the regular season. He is the ONLY LB on the team to earn an overall negative score. And adding to it, is the fact that he was negative in 2 outta 3 categories, earning a + grade only for pass coverage. The silver lining is thats really not a bad score for a rookie backer and he had 3 really good games, which happen to be the games he started(while Dansby was down)....so he did show up when he got the chance and played better later in the season...On the other hand, MINGO our much maligned OLB, looks to have played pretty well overall and (honestly) has the best set of scores, second to Dansby.....and his scores have him as the only other one who is strong in multiple disciplines Run D, Pass rush and coverage....here are some surprises...he was our #2 rated run stopper on the whole team, second only to Sheard....he was also #2 pass rusher, second only to Kruger(it was just rare that he got the chance, but he penetrated when he did).....and his weakness was pass coverage(and not real bad either), and we know Pettine said they were askng him to do this, even though it wasn't his forte....so....Id say he's quietly playing pretty well....and with an injured shoulder(and harness) and hope(expect) for him to have a break out season in 2015....

So...honestly....they all did quite well and, considering they had to cover the run, I think the LB's performed above and beyond...

Final PFF overall NFL ratings for our guys(who are right in a row).....

Dansby +13.9.....# 8 ILB

Kruger + 9.8......#14 OLB

Mingo + 8.6......#15 OLB

Sheard + 8.2 .....#16 OLB

Robertson +2.2...#19 ILB

Kirksey -3.8....... #32 ILB

If we can replace Sheard with equal or better, I feel like this is a very solid group, with a lot of upside for Mingo and Kirkey to blossom....there is definitely room(need) for talent at ILB(depth) and OLB(pass rush).....but still the best group we've had since?....a loooooooong time ago.....

The Gipper

How about giving us the link to where you are getting these rankings.

miktoxic

holy shit batman, great stuff!

i would have never guessed that we played a better run D when rubin went out and taylor was back and forth.

glad to see mingo wasn't as bad as people had thought.

prob take a DL with the 12th if there's no movement.

Unsympathetic

Thanks so much!

I love seeing stats that grade out how players actually do every play. As they say, you're exactly as good as your record.

This eliminates the blowhardiness of people who come on and talk about how REAL FOOTBALL COACHES look at "Things Everyone Knows" and therefore Because He Tries Really Hard, we should pay big bucks to some incompetent old free agent who's been cut by 4 teams.. or trade Joe Thomas for a backup linebacker.

I thought Mingo was not that good, but hopefully next year he'll be even better.. It's pretty astounding he was able to play the entire year with his shoulder in a sling.

It's frustrating that Kirksey's ceiling is probably Robertson.. but not shocking given that Kirksey was only a 4th round pick.

Not shocking that Rubin and Taylor stink.

miktoxic

@unsympathetic said:

Not shocking that Rubin and Taylor stink.

hilarious!!

i thought taylor was the mainstay of the D line.......hard to believe that sometimes what you perceive to see with your own two old assed blind eyes is really not what is happening.

man, i need to start taking drugs (again).

Mudfly

@the-gipper said:
How about giving us the link to where you are getting these rankings.

Mostly from PFF and I cant cut/paste or link to it cause its a pay service...

@miktoxic said:

glad to see mingo wasn't as bad as people had thought.

prob take a DL with the 12th if there's no movement.

Me too....I was pretty hard on him(Mingo) this year..

yes, id say take best "front 7" available...example, if Shelton was gone, but Beasley was still there....BAM...hes a Brown!

@unsympathetic said:

Thanks so much!

I love seeing stats that grade out how players actually do every play. As they say, you're exactly as good as your record.

It's frustrating that Kirksey's ceiling is probably Robertson.. but not shocking given that Kirksey was only a 4th round pick.

Yep...they help tell the whole story....Hey, Mingo cant get a sack if coach doesnt rush him, right?....yet, people grade him on not having enough sacks....or Kruger is great because he had 11 sacks, yet thats the only thing he did well....etc etc....

Tour2ma

Nice job, Mud... buy yourself a beer... on me...

Couple questions:

Are all the ratings vs. the run only? I'm guessing yes, since it was a run D analysis (duh), but I got a little confused when you started breaking down Sheard vs. Krugs and the relative pass/run contributions to their grades.
In the game grades vs. run... do they note positives for occupying blockers? Assuming yes, what's the weight vs. a solo tackle vs. an assist?

The latter question is the biggie as it would seem that in the 1st ERA when the LBs were leading as designed, then the DL must have been keeping them clean, yet the DL graded lower. Can't make sense of that...

Mudfly

@tour2ma said:

Nice job, Mud... buy yourself a beer... on me...

Couple questions:

Are all the ratings vs. the run only? I'm guessing yes, since it was a run D analysis (duh), but I got a little confused when you started breaking down Sheard vs. Krugs and the relative pass/run contributions to their grades.

In the game grades vs. run... do they note positives for occupying blockers? Assuming yes, what's the weight vs. a solo tackle vs. an assist?

The latter question is the biggie as it would seem that in the 1st ERA when the LBs were leading as designed, then the DL must have been keeping them clean, yet the DL graded lower. Can't make sense of that...

Thanks Tour....been putting it together for a while now....

#1...I have no answer for that first one...

#2... see how that can be confusing....The first block I posted was run D specific and all the LB...DB ...DL ratings were run d only

........BUT...the second block I posted(on LB's) is an overall rating for them...includes Run D, Pass D and Pass ratings....

#3...No. They dont give us specifics stats for holding a block, per se....but it is in the equation and factored. They do not reveal the weighting. They also incude a "stop" stat that is one of my favorites. Which is basically given when that player creates the end of an offensive play.

Here's a good example....picture this(cause we all can)....Mingo comes flying thru at 100mhp on the blitz and hits the QB....freezes him....but doesnt bring him down.....and instant later Kruger(or anyone) finishes him off...gets the sack.....and we all chortle about Mingo and his one armed missed tackle....right?.....but HE gets the stop at PFF.....cause he, in essense, ended the offensive plays progress.....So, I like the "stop" concept very much and the fact that they break it out there(nice stat).....

The Lb rating contradiction in era 1 is mostly explained by the perceived assignments over that period and those who are grading them...meaning the last 3 games of Era 1, the LBs were perceived as having much more run responsibility than they were the first 3 games, and were graded differently because of it..... it would take a lot of paragraphs to show how exactly I came to it, but the cliffs notes are they do break out "run snaps" vs "pass snaps" and you can see it per game/per snap basis(and it's not run/pass plays...its what that player played on that snap, see?)....and then you can easily see the trends(and adjustments the D was making)......LB plays run 10 snaps/gm for 3 games, then suddenly plays run 30 snaps/gm for 3 games and grades change dramatically over those same games.....etc...

Im gonna post a follow up to this that kinda shows some of the formation changes he made and how the grades coincide....it'll help with the overall picture.....but not today....

Opal312

Rubin signed a one year deal with Seattle. Browns definitely go defense at #12

Mudfly

@opal312 said:
Rubin signed a one year deal with Seattle. Browns definitely go defense at #12

curious how much he's gettin?......even with all the bad things I said about his play this year, he was a good player for us for quite a while(and very good teammate). I think he could rebound from his injury and do well. The 4-3 Seattle plays should work well for him.....so good luck and adios to the Ruben sammich

wargograw

Great data. Have another beer. This one on me. Thanks.

TexasAg1969

Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs?

Unsympathetic

Gotta disagree with u on Rubin.. Rubin was a 6th rounder for a reason: He's very limited athletically. He was decent until he was unable to compensate.

I don't think he'll be even serviceable in Seattle.. he's done

SkippinTurtles

Danny Shelton.

gftChris

@texasag1969 said:
Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs?

Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah...

TexasAg1969

@gftchris said:
Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah...

Damn I was hoping I had slept through our playoff loss.

Tour2ma

@mudfly said:
Im gonna post a follow up to this that kinda shows some of the formation changes he made and how the grades coincide....it'll help with the overall picture.....but not today....

No hurry, my friend... thanks for the reply... cleared the methodology up some...

@wargograw said:
Great data. Have another beer. This one on me. Thanks.

... or on mik, if you win the bet...

Mudfly

@texasag1969 said:
Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs?

@gftchris said:
Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah...

yes, you got it...... era 1 was 6 games over 7 weeks.....I coulda spelled that out a little better....

Clevfan4life

im very surprised by Dansby's PFF rating. He looked out of place and consistently in the wrong gap all season long...just like all our LB'ers.