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Today's Analytics Presser... Sashi And Paul Take The Stage

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  • Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #17

    lol... unfortunately the rest of my post was about how bad that stat is... 😛

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • Tour2maT Tour2ma

    lol... unfortunately the rest of my post was about how bad that stat is... 😛

    bbedwardB bbedward wrote on
    #18

    @tour2ma said:

    lol... unfortunately the rest of my post was about how bad that stat is... 😛

    I think it's accurate in that particular case 😉

    But maybe not as much for Lynch - who is 75% adjusted for drops. Given the fact he only averaged 4 20+ yard passes per game (I think) and a few other things. The simple stat probably doesn't paint the best picture on accuracy.

    I think your scale is better, maybe something more advanced like that is part of the service the Browns paid $100,000 for to ignore.

  • Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #19

    DePo has an assignment that I think we saw coming...

    Cleveland Browns to analyze NFL's best turnarounds

    Mathew Florjancic 5:00 AM. EST February 02, 2016

    CLEVELAND -- With the hiring of former Major League Baseball executive Paul DePodesta as Chief Strategy Officer, who is known for his knowledge and application of analytics when it comes to making decisions about the franchise, the Cleveland Browns are changing the course of action for a struggling organization that has been out of the postseason since 2002.

    In addition to analyzing all of the players on the roster, the Browns are going to evaluate how teams around the NFL have turned around their fortunes in short order.

    http://www.wkyc.com/sports/nfl/browns/cleveland-browns-to-analyze-nfls-best-turnarounds/28686513

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #20

    What if the conclusion is, "They never hired a baseball guy to analyze football"? 😛

  • T TexasAg1969

    What if the conclusion is, "They never hired a baseball guy to analyze football"? 😛

    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #21

    @texasag1969 said:

    What if the conclusion is, "They never hired a baseball guy to analyze football"? 😛

    lol... of course, that also applies to teams that have never turned around...

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • ComeonmanC Comeonman wrote on
    #22

    History shall be made this year folks ?

  • ComeonmanC Comeonman

    History shall be made this year folks ?

    ballpeenB ballpeen wrote on
    #23

    @comeonman said:

    History shall be made this year folks

    I don't know, but it should be fun to watch how it all plays out. I suspect that we will see picks that stick to most boards. I doubt we will see guys thought of as 6th rounders being picked in round 3 or anything like that. I think the process will shine by not allowing one guys ego to interfere with making sound football decisions.

    Based on what we have seen from "football" guys the last 10 years, why not see if crunching numbers helps us find a edge? I don't think one needs to be a football guy to identify good football players. Us as fans can usually spot guys who are better than other players, and we aren't football guys.

    The scouts will file reports. They are football guys. They will put a grade on hundreds of players. Then cross checkers will see if they agree or not on any who's grade may not be in line with conventional wisdom. Teams also employ independant scouting services that all the teams can tap in to...a form of cross checking. There are plenty of "football" eyes on all of these players before our front office starts making decisions. It doesn't take a football guy to make those decisions. It take a guy or team of guys to make a logical decision and keep personal desire to rule the day. This will prevent moments like Mike Holmgren stepping in, exerting his desire and grabbing Brandon Weeden when we did when all the information we amassed indicated we could wait to make that pick.

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
    Mark OM T 2 Replies
  • ballpeenB ballpeen

    @comeonman said:

    History shall be made this year folks

    I don't know, but it should be fun to watch how it all plays out. I suspect that we will see picks that stick to most boards. I doubt we will see guys thought of as 6th rounders being picked in round 3 or anything like that. I think the process will shine by not allowing one guys ego to interfere with making sound football decisions.

    Based on what we have seen from "football" guys the last 10 years, why not see if crunching numbers helps us find a edge? I don't think one needs to be a football guy to identify good football players. Us as fans can usually spot guys who are better than other players, and we aren't football guys.

    The scouts will file reports. They are football guys. They will put a grade on hundreds of players. Then cross checkers will see if they agree or not on any who's grade may not be in line with conventional wisdom. Teams also employ independant scouting services that all the teams can tap in to...a form of cross checking. There are plenty of "football" eyes on all of these players before our front office starts making decisions. It doesn't take a football guy to make those decisions. It take a guy or team of guys to make a logical decision and keep personal desire to rule the day. This will prevent moments like Mike Holmgren stepping in, exerting his desire and grabbing Brandon Weeden when we did when all the information we amassed indicated we could wait to make that pick.

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    Mark OM Mark O wrote on
    #24

    @ballpeen said:

    I don't know, but it should be fun to watch how it all plays out. I suspect that we will see picks that stick to most boards. I doubt we will see guys thought of as 6th rounders being picked in round 3 or anything like that. I think the process will shine by not allowing one guys ego to interfere with making sound football decisions.

    Based on what we have seen from "football" guys the last 10 years, why not see if crunching numbers helps us find a edge? I don't think one needs to be a football guy to identify good football players. Us as fans can usually spot guys who are better than other players, and we aren't football guys.

    The scouts will file reports. They are football guys. They will put a grade on hundreds of players. Then cross checkers will see if they agree or not on any who's grade may not be in line with conventional wisdom. Teams also employ independant scouting services that all the teams can tap in to...a form of cross checking. There are plenty of "football" eyes on all of these players before our front office starts making decisions. It doesn't take a football guy to make those decisions. It take a guy or team of guys to make a logical decision and keep personal desire to rule the day. This will prevent moments like Mike Holmgren stepping in, exerting his desire and grabbing Brandon Weeden when we did when all the information we amassed indicated we could wait to make that pick.

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    I completely agree. They're going to be making decisions based on a wide variety of factors and there won't be someone's ego making the choice and that should avoid the Weeden and Manziel and other mistakes that have been made over the years.

  • Mark OM Mark O

    @ballpeen said:

    I don't know, but it should be fun to watch how it all plays out. I suspect that we will see picks that stick to most boards. I doubt we will see guys thought of as 6th rounders being picked in round 3 or anything like that. I think the process will shine by not allowing one guys ego to interfere with making sound football decisions.

    Based on what we have seen from "football" guys the last 10 years, why not see if crunching numbers helps us find a edge? I don't think one needs to be a football guy to identify good football players. Us as fans can usually spot guys who are better than other players, and we aren't football guys.

    The scouts will file reports. They are football guys. They will put a grade on hundreds of players. Then cross checkers will see if they agree or not on any who's grade may not be in line with conventional wisdom. Teams also employ independant scouting services that all the teams can tap in to...a form of cross checking. There are plenty of "football" eyes on all of these players before our front office starts making decisions. It doesn't take a football guy to make those decisions. It take a guy or team of guys to make a logical decision and keep personal desire to rule the day. This will prevent moments like Mike Holmgren stepping in, exerting his desire and grabbing Brandon Weeden when we did when all the information we amassed indicated we could wait to make that pick.

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    I completely agree. They're going to be making decisions based on a wide variety of factors and there won't be someone's ego making the choice and that should avoid the Weeden and Manziel and other mistakes that have been made over the years.

    The GipperT The Gipper wrote on
    #25

    @mark-o said:

    I completely agree. They're going to be making decisions based on a wide variety of factors and there won't be someone's ego making the choice and that should avoid the Weeden and Manziel and other mistakes that have been made over the years.

    And of course the ego that has to be suppressed most of all is that of the owner. But then he is the guy that brought all these guys in....so, maybe: Mission Accomplished?

    (Premature Ejaculatory statement? Just like W?)

  • ballpeenB ballpeen

    @comeonman said:

    History shall be made this year folks

    I don't know, but it should be fun to watch how it all plays out. I suspect that we will see picks that stick to most boards. I doubt we will see guys thought of as 6th rounders being picked in round 3 or anything like that. I think the process will shine by not allowing one guys ego to interfere with making sound football decisions.

    Based on what we have seen from "football" guys the last 10 years, why not see if crunching numbers helps us find a edge? I don't think one needs to be a football guy to identify good football players. Us as fans can usually spot guys who are better than other players, and we aren't football guys.

    The scouts will file reports. They are football guys. They will put a grade on hundreds of players. Then cross checkers will see if they agree or not on any who's grade may not be in line with conventional wisdom. Teams also employ independant scouting services that all the teams can tap in to...a form of cross checking. There are plenty of "football" eyes on all of these players before our front office starts making decisions. It doesn't take a football guy to make those decisions. It take a guy or team of guys to make a logical decision and keep personal desire to rule the day. This will prevent moments like Mike Holmgren stepping in, exerting his desire and grabbing Brandon Weeden when we did when all the information we amassed indicated we could wait to make that pick.

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #26

    @ballpeen said:

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    Mark OM Tour2maT OsirisO 3 Replies
  • T TexasAg1969

    @ballpeen said:

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    Mark OM Mark O wrote on
    #27

    @texasag1969 said:

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    I think it's a symptom of you either have a franchise QB or you're looking for one. If they think Goff (or Lynch or Wentz) is that guy, you have to take them at #2 this year. You have a guy in McCown who could hold the job down for the year if need be but is also very willing (his words and actions show this) to be the mentor and even the #2 guy to help a young QB along. I'd probably lean towards just throwing whoever it is out there week 1 and we can sink or swim with him this year.

  • T TexasAg1969

    @ballpeen said:

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on
    #28

    @texasag1969 said:

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    Still a lot of time left to flesh out the study, but it is possible that step one was:

    - Clear out all distractions.

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
  • T TexasAg1969

    @ballpeen said:

    Holmgren allowed his desire to fill a QB spot intefere with making a sound football decision.

    And how does that apply now as we see the lean of the Browns towards going with a QB @ #2 overall this early in the process and well before the analytics are done? They have not yet studied the new assignment too determine what made for turnarounds, but yet there has been a lot of info out there towards a QB. Hmmmmm. Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    And will they look at key draft picks before the turnarounds? Hope so. I think they will find a lot of defensive picks there. But just my gut reaction. 😉

    OsirisO Osiris wrote on
    #29

    @texasag1969 said:

    Will they really let the process make that decision or will they do another Holgren gut decision?

    I share one thing with DePodesta. We both have a background in bioinformatics analysis. I can tell you in no uncertain terms that gut reactions are frowned upon at least explicitly trained out of anyone who is going to be performing any kind of statistical or informatics-based analysis.

    "I said, 'I need someone who's going to want to get on the roller coaster with me knowing that it's not always going to be fun,'" -Paul DePodesta
  • T TexasAg1969 wrote on
    #30

    Well these things are reassuring. So which teams do any of you think qualify for the study of those that have made relatively quick turnarounds?

  • thenew23T thenew23 wrote on
    #31

    2012 to 2013 Chiefs

    2-14 to 11-5

    New Coach - Reid

    Trade for QB - Smith

    Draft - OT, TE (Kelce), backup RB

    FAs - FS, OT (re-sign), WR (re-sign). Vet WR, 2 LBs, and 2 CBs (and many other mid-level depth players)

    #Justsayin'
  • thenew23T thenew23 wrote on
    #32

    2011 to 2012 Colts

    2-14 to 11-5

    New coach- Pagano

    Draft #1 QB, 2 TEs, and a star WR

    FAs - vet WR, NT, DE, and #1 CB

    #Justsayin'
  • thenew23T thenew23 wrote on
    #33

    2010 to 2011 49ers

    6-10 to 13-3

    New coach- Harbaugh

    Draft: DE, and QB

    FAs: OL, 2 LBs

    Re-signed: QB, DE, S

    #Justsayin'
  • thenew23T thenew23 wrote on
    #34

    Not surprising... All 3 examples I listed included getting a new coach, solid QB, and acquiring a few key FAs...

    Hmmm...

    #Justsayin'
    Tour2maT 1 Reply
  • KvoetheK Kvoethe wrote on
    #35

    Triv was talking about the last presser...evidently hue wasnt even mentioned except in a freudian slip...

  • thenew23T thenew23 wrote on
    #36

    2007-2008 Falcons

    4-12 to 11-5

    New coach- Mike Smith

    Draft- QB (Ryan), OT, WR, CB, S

    FAs- RB, DE

    Coach + QB again...

    #Justsayin'
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