Not so Fast my Friends
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So? You think that you have to draft a high first round pick QB to take you to the Super Bowl win?
Not so fast my friends:
There have been 30 QBs that have won these 50 Super Bowls.
Of those....almost one half of them did not win the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Len Dawson
John Unitas
Jim Plunkett
Joe Theisman
Doug Williams
Steve Young
Brett Favre
John Elway
Kurt Warner
Trent Dilfer
Brad Johnson
Drew Brees
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning #
of course, 2 of these were #1 overall picks that were traded immediately: Elway and Eli. But the fact is they are not with the team that drafted them. 14 of the 30 SB winning QBs were not drafted by the team they won for. #
And even of those that did win with the team that drafted them, they were not always necessarily first round picks. Almost half were not:
Tom Brady round 6 #199
Russell Wilson round 3
Mark Rypien round 6 #146
Jeff Hostetler round 3
Joe Montana round 3
Roger Staubach round 10
Bart Starr #200 (like round 17 at the time)
Ken Stabler Round 2
Only the following were first round draft picks that won the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Joe Flacco
Ben Roethlisberger
Troy Aikman
Phil Simms
Jim McMahon
Terry Bradshaw
Bob Griese
Joe Namath AFL draft
Peyton Manning#
# Peyton you see now fits into the two categories as he won one with the team that drafted him...the Colts...then with a team that got him later, the Broncos.
17 of the Super Bowl winning QBs were drafted by that team #
So, as you can see, less than one third of Super Bowl winning QBs came from the first round of the team that drafted them. It is still probably the best statistical way of getting one....but it is not the only way.
My point is this: I am all in on the Browns getting that killer defense.....and then getting the good QB possibly by another method.
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There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.
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There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.
There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.
Ghoolie hates you.
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OK, lets now look at the Quarterbacks who lost the Super Bowl....and for this I mean those who lost it, but never won one.:
There are 27 QBs who lost a Super Bowl that never won one.
Of these 27, the following appeared in the SB for a team that did NOT draft them:
Daryl Lamonica....drafted by Bills
Earl Morrall....drafted by 49ers
Joe Kapp....Canadian League
Billy Kilmer...drafted by 49ers
Ron Jaworski....drafted by Rams
Stan Humphries....drafted by Redskins
Chis Chandler...drafted by Colts
Kerry Collins...drafted by Panthers
Rich GAnnon...drafted by Vikings
Jake Delhomme....UDFA
Matt Hasselback...drafted by Packers
# Craig Morton.....drafted by Cowboys......special case...see below
That is 12 of the 27.
And of all these, only Collins was a first round pick.
The Following DID make a Super Bowl appearance with the team that drafted them:
Craig Morton...Cowboys but #....he also started for the Broncos...so he fits both categories
Fran Tarkenton....but also special case. Drafted by Vikings...then spent several years with Giants before returning to Vikings where he then made 3 SB appearances.
Vince Ferragamo...Rams 4th round
Ken Anderson....Bengals 3rd round
David Woodley...Dolphins 8th round
Dan Marino...Dolphins 1st round
Tony Eason...Patriots 1st round
Boomer Esiason...Bengals 2d round
Jim Kelly...Bills 1st round.....but....he too went elsewhere before returning to Buffalo....Houston Gamblers USFL
Neil O'Donnell....Steelers pick #70
Drew Bledsoe....Patriots #1 overall pick
Steve McNair....Oilers/Titans #3 overall pick
Donovan McNabb...Eagles #2 overall pick
Rex Grossman....Bears #22 overall pick (remember when Browns were talking about getting him? another #22)
Colin Kaepernick...49ers 2d round
Cam Newton....Panthers #1 overall pick.
Of these 16 SB starting QBs...only half were first round picks.
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So, here is bottom line: 45.6% of the Quarterbacks that have started a Super Bowl did not do so with the team that drafted them.
For what that's worth.
And what I think it is worth is that the Browns have nearly a 50/50 chance or at least 45/55 chance of getting their franchise QB from a source other than the draft. Trade or Free Agency.
And also note, of this group....only 7 of the 27 were first round picks.
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There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.
Ghoolie hates you.
Ghoolie hates you.
ghoolie can lick my hairy ass with that JT hate.
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So basically, Gip, your argument is the odds of finding a franchise QB are better via the draft.
And the odds of the Browns making it to a SB are improved if a QB we draft leads us there.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
So basically, Gip, your argument is the odds of finding a franchise QB are better via the draft.
And the odds of the Browns making it to a SB are improved if a QB we draft leads us there.
So basically, Gip, your argument is the odds of finding a franchise QB are better via the draft.
And the odds of the Browns making it to a SB are improved if a QB we draft leads us there.
My argument is that while the odds of finding a franchise/SB quality QB in the draft are slightly better than otherwise.....it is a very narrow margin......much narrower than what most people think. Roughly 5.5-6 in 10 Super Bowl teams drafted their QB that took them there. That leave 40-45% of teams that didn't.
And while I would not want to give up on the draft method, I do think the Browns should look at other options to get their star QB.
I guess it is a matter of being "gun shy". The draft method has worked so horribly for them lately. (though to be sure...the FA/trade route hasn't been that great either: Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme/Hoyer/ etc. ).
Moral of the story: don't put all your QB eggs in the draft basket.
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Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
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Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
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Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.
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Slightly better is still better...
As a matter of fact... when there are only two choices... slightly better is best.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
Well, again, I don't know that it makes a difference if it is the past or more recent.
The 1970s was just as much dominated by teams that drafted their QBs: Steelers/Bradshaw, Dolphins/Griese, Cowboys/Staubach, Raiders/Stabler. Vikings/Tarkenton
While I agree that the draft is the better option....I am only saying that it is not the only option.....of the playoff teams...still 1/3rd of them did not draft their QBs. Its not like it is only one out of ten.
And notice none of the names on the playoff list were Quinn, Weeden, Manziel.
That is my point......having been fucked up so often with our draft, perhaps we should drink from a different well. (though...I guess we tried that too, with Hoyer, McCown)
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
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Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.
Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.
Yea, I just listed him for shits and giggles. He is done.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
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Slightly better is still better...
As a matter of fact... when there are only two choices... slightly better is best.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
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The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
Again, I am only saying is don't overlook this possible avenue of acquiring a QB.
(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)
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