Is Mel Kiper a Dumbass?

[The Gipper]

@the-gipper said:

All QBs taken in Round 1 since 1990:

Jameis Winston Q

Marcus Mariota Stats 3 2014 1 3 Too soon for both Winston and Mariota

Blake Bortles QB 22 JAX 2014 2015 0 0 2 19 30 29 8-21-0 635 1081 7336 46 35 108 729 2 Central Florida College Stats 4 2014 1 22

Johnny Manziel QB 21 CLE 2014 2015 0 0 0 5 15 8 2-6-0 147 258 1675 7 7 46 259 1 Texas A&M College Stats 5 2014 1 32

Teddy Twatwater QB 21 MIN 2014 2015 0 1 2 22 29 28 17-11-0 551 849 6150 28 21 91 401 4 Louisville College Stats 6 2013 1 16

EJ Manuel QB 23 BUF 2013 2015 0 0 1 9 22 16 6-10-0 308 521 3371 19 15 86 302 4 Florida St. College Stats 7 2012 1 1

Andrew Luck QB 22 IND 2012 2015 0 3 3 45 55 55 35-20-0 1224 2106 14838 101 55 222 1101 12 Stanford College Stats 8 2012 1 2

Robert Griffin QB 22 WAS 2012 2014 0 1 2 32 37 35 14-21-0 679 1063 8097 40 23 244 1480 8 Baylor College Stats 9 2012 1 8

Ryan Tannehill QB 24 MIA 2012 2015 0 0 4 42 64 64 29-35-0 1392 2248 15460 87 54 177 901 5 Texas A&M College Stats 10 2012 1 22

Brandon Weeden QB 28 CLE 2012 2015 0 0 1 14 34 25 6-19-0 559 965 6463 31 30 61 201 1 Oklahoma St. College Stats 11 2011 1 1

Cam Newton QB 22 CAR 2011 2015 1 3 5 76 78 78 45-32-1 1440 2419 18263 117 64 599 3207 43 Auburn College Stats 12 2011 1 8

Jake Locker QB 23 TEN 2011 2014 0 0 1 15 30 23 9-14-0 408 709 4967 27 22 95 644 5 Washington College Stats 13 2011 1 10

Blaine Gabbert QB 21 JAX 2011 2015 0 0 2 12 37 35 8-27-0 595 1066 6426 33 31 108 376 1 Missouri College Stats 14 2011 1 12

Christian Ponder QB 23 MIN 2011 2014 0 0 3 22 38 36 14-21-1 632 1057 6658 38 36 126 639 7 Florida St. College Stats 15 2010 1 1

Sam Bradford QB 22 STL 2010 2015 0 0 4 33 63 63 25-37-1 1378 2292 14790 78 52 123 286 2 Oklahoma College Stats 16 2010 1 25

Tim Tebow QB 23 DEN 2010 2012 0 0 1 12 35 16 8-6-0 173 361 2422 17 9 197 989 12 Florida College Stats 17 2009 1 1

Matthew Stafford QB 21 DET 2009 2015 0 1 6 64 93 93 42-51-0 2246 3691 25976 163 98 205 644 12 Georgia College Stats 18 2009 1 5

Mark Sanchez QB 22 NYJ 2009 2015 0 0 5 34 75 72 37-35-0 1285 2267 15126 86 84 165 451 13 USC College Stats 19 2009 1 17

Josh Freeman QB 21 TAM 2009 2015 0 0 4 38 62 61 25-36-0 1179 2048 13873 81 68 205 946 4 Kansas St. College Stats 20 2008 1 3

Matt Ryan QB 23 ATL 2008 2015 0 3 8 96 126 126 74-52-0 2915 4530 32757 202 107 285 763 5 Boston Col. College Stats 21 2008 1 18

Joe Flacco QB 23 BAL 2008 2015 0 0 8 75 122 122 75-47-0 2479 4070 28322 162 102 280 654 13 Delaware College Stats 22 2007 1 1

JaMarcus Russell QB 22 OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 6 31 25 7-18-0 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU College Stats 23 2007 1 22

Brady Quinn QB 22 CLE 2007 2013 0 0 2 2 24 20 4-16-0 296 550 3043 12 17 44 185 1 Notre Dame College Stats 24 2006 1 3

Vince Young QB 23 TEN 2006 2011 0 2 4 33 60 50 31-19-0 755 1304 8964 46 51 282 1459 12 Texas College Stats 25 2006 1 10

Matt Leinart QB 23 ARI 2006 2012 0 0 1 12 33 18 8-10-0 366 641 4065 15 21 47 89 2 USC College Stats 26 2006 1 11

Jay Cutler QB 23 DEN 2006 2015 0 1 9 83 134 134 67-67-0 2701 4354 31408 204 141 362 1626 9 Vanderbilt College Stats 27 2005 1 1

Alex Smith QB 21 SFO 2005 2015 0 1 8 72 126 121 68-52-1 2208 3619 24344 142 83 421 1944 8 Utah College Stats 28 2005 1 24

Aaron Rodgers QB 21 GNB 2005 2015 2 5 8 112 126 119 80-39-0 2633 4047 32399 257 65 434 2175 21 California College Stats 29 2005 1 25

Jason Campbell QB 23 WAS 2006 2014 0 0 5 47 90 79 32-47-0 1519 2518 16771 87 60 240 1204 6 Auburn College Stats 30 2004 1 1

Eli Manning QB 23 SDG 2004 2015 0 4 11 104 185 183 97-86-0 3695 6227 44191 294 199 263 523 5 Mississippi College Stats Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 31 2004 1 4

Philip Rivers QB 22 NYG 2004 2015 0 5 10 121 164 160 92-68-0 3462 5339 41447 281 135 303 540 3 North Carolina St. College Stats 32 2004 1 11

Ben Roethlisberger QB 22 PIT 2004 2015 0 4 12 108 171 169 113-56-0 3476 5423 42995 272 147 393 1191 15 Miami (OH) College Stats 33 2004 1 22

J.P. Losman QB 23 BUF 2004 2011 0 0 2 19 45 33 10-23-0 564 952 6271 33 34 105 490 3 Tulane College Stats 34 2003 1 1

Carson Palmer QB 23 CIN 2004 2015 0 3 10 100 160 159 83-76-0 3413 5443 40036 259 166 273 424 8 USC College Stats 35 2003 1 7

Byron Leftwich QB 23 JAX 2003 2012 0 0 3 33 60 50 24-26-0 930 1605 10532 58 42 137 415 10 Marshall College Stats 36 2003 1 19

Kyle Boller QB 22 BAL 2003 2011 0 0 4 17 67 47 20-27-0 861 1519 8931 48 54 176 572 2 California College Stats 37 2003 1 22

Rex Grossman QB 23 CHI 2003 2013 0 0 2 23 54 47 25-22-0 863 1562 10232 56 60 81 106 4 Florida College Stats 38 2002 1 1

David Carr QB 23 HOU 2002 2012 0 0 5 44 94 79 23-56-0 1353 2267 14452 65 71 305 1328 9 Fresno St. College Stats 39 2002 1 3

Joey Harrington QB 23 DET 2002 2007 0 0 6 30 81 76 26-50-0 1424 2538 14693 79 85 142 402 0 Oregon College Stats 40 2002 1 32

Patrick Ramsey QB 23 WAS 2002 2008 0 0 1 14 37 24 10-14-0 511 913 5930 35 30 47 89 2 Tulane College Stats 41 2001 1 1

Michael Vick QB 21 ATL 2001 2015 0 4 7 93 143 115 61-51-1 1807 3217 22464 133 88 873 6109 36 Virginia Tech College Stats 42 2000 1 18

Chad Pennington QB 24 NYJ 2000 2010 0 0 6 55 89 81 44-37-0 1632 2471 17823 102 64 180 465 7 Marshall College Stats 43 1999 1 1

Tim Couch QB 22 CLE 1999 2003 0 0 4 30 62 59 22-37-0 1025 1714 11131 64 67 124 556 2 Kentucky College Stats 44 1999 1 2

Donovan McNabb QB 22 PHI 1999 2011 0 6 11 107 167 161 98-62-1 3170 5374 37276 234 117 616 3459 29 Syracuse College Stats 45 1999 1 3

Akili Smith QB 24 CIN 1999 2002 0 0 1 1 22 17 3-14-0 215 461 2212 5 13 70 371 1 Oregon College Stats 46 1999 1 11

Daunte Culpepper QB 22 MIN 1999 2009 0 3 5 86 105 100 41-59-0 2016 3199 24153 149 106 514 2652 34 Central Florida College Stats 47 1999 1 12

Cade McNown QB 22 CHI 1999 2000 0 0 1 7 25 15 3-12-0 281 515 3111 16 19 82 486 3 UCLA College Stats 48 1998 1 1

Peyton Manning QB 22 IND 1998 2015 7 14 16 177 266 265 186-79-0 6125 9380 71940 539 251 431 667 18 Tennessee College Stats 49 1998 1 2

Ryan Leaf QB 22 SDG 1998 2001 0 0 1 1 25 21 4-17-0 317 655 3666 14 36 59 127 0 Washington St. College Stats 50 1997 1 26

Jim Druckenmiller QB 24 SFO 1997 1998 0 0 0 1 6 1 1-0-0 21 52 239 1 4 13 -10 0 Virginia Tech College Stats 51 1995 1 3

Steve McNair QB 22 HOU 1995 2007 0 3 10 100 161 153 91-62-0 2733 4544 31304 174 119 669 3590 37 Alcorn St. College Stats 52 1995 1 5

Kerry Collins QB 22 CAR 1995 2011 0 2 11 81 198 180 81-99-0 3487 6261 40922 208 196 374 686 10 Penn St. College Stats 53 1994 1 3

Heath Shuler QB 22 WAS 1994 1997 0 0 2 6 29 22 8-14-0 292 593 3691 15 33 67 198 1 Tennessee College Stats 54 1994 1 6

Trent Dilfer QB 22 TAM 1994 2007 0 1 7 51 130 113 58-55-0 1759 3172 20518 113 129 248 853 5 Fresno St. College Stats 55 1993 1 1

Drew Bledsoe QB 21 NWE 1993 2006 0 4 12 103 194 193 98-95-0 3839 6717 44611 251 206 385 764 10 Washington St. College Stats 56 1993 1 2

Rick Mirer QB 23 SEA 1993 2003 0 0 5 32 80 68 24-44-0 1088 2043 11969 50 76 242 1130 9 Notre Dame College Stats 57 1992 1 6

David Klingler QB 23 CIN 1992 1997 0 0 1 10 33 24 4-20-0 389 718 3994 16 22 74 456 0 Houston College Stats 58 1992 1 25

Tommy Maddox QB 21 DEN 1992 2005 0 0 2 24 92 36 15-20-1 686 1200 8087 48 54 68 128 1 UCLA College Stats 59 1991 1 16

Dan McGwire QB 23 SEA 1991 1995 0 0 0 2 13 5 2-3-0 74 148 745 2 6 14 6 0 San Diego St. College Stats 60 1991 1 24

Todd Marinovich QB 22 RAI 1991 1992 0 0 0 3 8 8 3-5-0 104 205 1345 8 9 12 44 0 USC College Stats Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 61 1990 1 1

Jeff George QB 22 IND 1990 2001 0 0 9 65 131 124 46-78-0 2298 3967 27602 154 113 168 307 2 Illinois College Stats 62 1990 1 7

Andre Ware QB 22 DET

Sort out the Busts

My view...Busts in Red

Questionable status in Green

Good QB stay Blue.

Is it fair to say that the Red and Green vastly outnumber the Blue?

Edit...made some corrections.

[gftChris]

RG3 not a bust? Really?

[The Gipper]

@gftchris said:

RG3 not a bust? Really?

I put him in the questionable status because you never know, he may still have a chance. Perhaps he should have been like Purple, a cross between red and green.

[gftChris]

Then so does JFF, and EJ Manuel is at least with the team that drafted him.

[The Gipper]

@gftchris said:

Then so does JFF, and EJ Manuel is at least with the team that drafted him.

Well, RGIII did have about one and a half outstanding years.....those other didn't. So I took that into consideration a bit.

I also dropped Tannehill into the Questionable range.

And I overlooked Jake Locker....had to put him in red. Made corrections.

[The Gipper]

From my own assessment, I count 38 qBs in the red/green...bust/questionable range. And only 22 in the blue range.

Thus, just slightly over 1/3rd 36.66% of First round QBs turn out to be successes.

About 18.3% are "questionable". The vast plurality: about 45% of first round QBs drafted become outright busts.

Pretty pathetic when you know going in that whomever you take, statistically has about a one in two chance of being a bust. And a one in three chance of being a good QB.....and about a 10% chance of being so-so.

(and yes...I know...it could be that way for just about any position).

[Tour2ma]

@miktoxic said:

bullshit.

Are you claiming there's is some rationalizing going on here?

@the-gipper said:

Pretty pathetic when you know going in that whomever you take, statistically has about a one in two chance of being a bust. And a one in three chance of being a good QB.....and about a 10% chance of being so-so.

OK... let's stipulate that your assessment is correct. Of what use is it?

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

From my own assessment, I count 38 qBs in the red/green...bust/questionable range. And only 22 in the blue range.

Thus, just slightly over 1/3rd 36.66% of First round QBs turn out to be successes.

About 18.3% are "questionable". The vast plurality: about 45% of first round QBs drafted become outright busts.

Pretty pathetic when you know going in that whomever you take, statistically has about a one in two chance of being a bust. And a one in three chance of being a good QB.....and about a 10% chance of being so-so.

(and yes...I know...it could be that way for just about any position).

Gip that 33% probably holds true for every position taken, not just quarterbacks. For every Joe Thomas, you have a Tony Mandarich. For every Jerry Rice, you have a Willis Adams.

[hoorta]

@tour2ma said:

Are you claiming there's is some rationalizing going on here?

OK... let's stipulate that your assessment is correct. Of what use is it?

Well, if Gip is saying if we take a QB, there's only a 33% chance he will succeed. Hmmmm those that want Bosa are forgetting Dan Wilkinson.

[gftChris]

@hoorta said:

Well, if Gip is saying if we take a QB, there's only a 33% chance he will succeed. Hmmmm those that want Bosa are forgetting Dan Wilkinson.

The logic only holds if there is any dependence on historical data, and if you're picking at random. Every pick is independent from every other, so saying "picking position X gives us a higher percentage of picking a good footballer" is wrong and pointless.

Also, in the last 20 years, every kicker taken in the first round has been a success, so we should draft a kicker in the first round, if you follow the logic.

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Are you claiming there's is some rationalizing going on here?

OK... let's stipulate that your assessment is correct. Of what use is it?

Use? Probably none really. You can't even say that being forewarned is being forearmed. You just have to hope that your evaluation process is as good as it can be, then take the crapshoot. With those odds, every selection is a gamble.

The Browns, unfortunately have lost all their gambles.

So, we just have to go with the old gamblers mantra:

"One time baby. Come on. One time".

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

Gip that 33% probably holds true for every position taken, not just quarterbacks. For every Joe Thomas, you have a Tony Mandarich. For every Jerry Rice, you have a Willis Adams.

Did you read my last sentence? That is exactly what I said.

[Tour2ma]

@the-gipper said:

Use? Probably none really. You can't even say that being forewarned is being forearmed. You just have to hope that your evaluation process is as good as it can be, then take the crapshoot. With those odds, every selection is a gamble.

The Browns, unfortunately have lost all their gambles.

So, we just have to go with the old gamblers mantra:

"One time baby. Come on. One time".

Bingo... of course we are all smarter than the averages...

[The Gipper]

@gftchris said:

The logic only holds if there is any dependence on historical data, and if you're picking at random. Every pick is independent from every other, so saying "picking position X gives us a higher percentage of picking a good footballer" is wrong and pointless.

Also, in the last 20 years, every kicker taken in the first round has been a success, so we should draft a kicker in the first round, if you follow the logic.

No, there is no logic to that....as only one kicker has ever been taken in the first round in 20 years.

On the other hand, with QBs....(and most other positions) there is a larger sampling with a much more predictive pattern.

I mean, in any given year, you CAN have major success. But even in 1983 you had Todd Blackledge, and in 2004 you had JP Losman....and those are considered the best QB years ever.

Take another year with a fair sized sample: 1999 5 first round QBs taken: 2 outright busts (Smith/McNown), one questionable (Couch), two good QBs. That actually may still be considered a good year.

2007....only 2 QBs taken....2 major busts, Russell and Quinn.

2011...one good QB: Newton, 3 outright busts. etc. etc.

No, you can't point to QB X and say "he is going to be a bust because 45% of all 1st round QBs taken before him were busts" but as an overall predictor, the total percentages I don't see changing.

I would say this: If say 3 QBs were drafted first round this year as some people think....predictively I suspect one will turn out really good, one mediocre and one really bad. But we can have no clue as to which will be which.

[flyingfooldoug]

It might be a crap shoot but it seems that most of the better QBs in the league have come outa round 1.

[The Gipper]

@flyingfooldoug said:

It might be a crap shoot but it seems that most of the better QBs in the league have come outa round 1.

Oh, no doubt. I suggest if we did a round by round comparison of how successful QBs have become, Round one would still have the highest plus rate.

Let's do this: take Round 6. Here listed are all the QBs taken in that round the last 20 years:

1 2014 6 178 Zach Mettenberger QB 23 TEN 2014 2015 0 0 0 1 14 10 0-10-0 208 345 2347 12 14 14 12 1 LSU College Stats 2 2014 6 183 David Fales QB 23 CHI 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 San Jose St. College Stats 3 2014 6 194 Keith Wenning QB 23 BAL 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 Ball St. College Stats 4 2014 6 213 Tajh Boyd QB 23 NYJ 0 0 0 Clemson College Stats 5 2014 6 214 Garrett Gilbert QB 23 STL 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 SMU College Stats 6 2012 6 185 Ryan Lindley QB 23 ARI 2012 2015 0 0 0 -3 10 6 1-5-0 140 274 1372 3 11 4 7 0 San Diego St. College Stats 7 2011 6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB 22 BAL 2011 2015 0 1 1 14 28 14 7-6-0 261 415 3234 20 8 131 704 5 Virginia Tech College Stats 8 2010 6 176 Rusty Smith QB 23 TEN 2010 2013 0 0 0 1 3 1 0-1-0 23 45 234 0 4 Florida Atlantic College Stats 9 2010 6 181 Dan LeFevour QB 23 CHI 2011 2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central Michigan 10 2010 6 204 Tony Pike QB 24 CAR 2010 2010 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 12 47 0 0 Cincinnati College Stats 11 2009 6 174 Tom Brandstater QB 24 DEN 2011 2011 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 Fresno St. College Stats 12 2009 6 178 Mike Teel QB 23 SEA 0 0 0 Rutgers 13 2009 6 196 Keith Null QB 23 STL 2009 2009 0 0 0 1 4 4 0-4-0 73 119 566 3 9 5 6 0 West Texas A&M 14 2009 6 201 Curtis Painter QB 24 IND 2009 2013 0 0 1 2 14 8 0-8-0 148 287 1681 6 13 23 109 0 Purdue College Stats 15 2008 6 186 Colt Brennan QB 25 WAS 0 0 0 Hawaii College Stats 16 2008 6 198 Andre Woodson QB 24 NYG 0 0 0 Kentucky College Stats 17 2007 6 205 Jordan Palmer QB 23 WAS 2008 2014 0 0 0 0 5 0 11 18 66 0 2 2 3 0 Texas-El Paso College Stats 18 2006 6 193 Reggie McNeal QB 22 CIN 2006 2006 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 8 0 Texas A&M College Stats 19 2006 6 194 Bruce Gradkowski QB 23 TAM 2006 2014 0 0 1 8 37 20 6-14-0 375 709 4057 21 24 88 329 0 Toledo College Stats 20 2005 6 213 Derek Anderson QB 22 BAL 2006 2015 0 1 3 21 68 45 20-25-0 829 1543 9943 58 55 98 225 5 Oregon St. College Stats 21 2004 6 185 Andy Hall QB 23 PHI 2005 2005 0 0 0 0 1 0 Delaware College Stats 22 2004 6 187 Josh Harris QB BAL 0 0 0 Bowling Green College Stats 23 2004 6 193 Jim Sorgi QB 23 IND 2004 2009 0 0 0 5 16 0 99 156 929 6 1 31 0 0 Wisconsin College Stats 24 2004 6 201 Jeff Smoker QB STL 0 0 0 Michigan St. College Stats 25 2003 6 192 Drew Henson QB 23 HOU 2004 2008 0 0 0 0 9 1 1-0-0 11 20 98 1 1 1 7 0 Michigan College Stats 26 2003 6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB 23 NYJ 2004 2008 0 0 1 6 21 10 2-8-0 211 360 2226 9 9 41 155 0 Wisconsin College Stats 27 2003 6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB 24 NWE 2005 2005 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 17 0 0 Texas Tech College Stats 28 2002 6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan QB 23 NOR 2004 2009 0 0 1 6 17 8 2-6-0 145 257 1866 9 13 39 145 0 California-Davis 29 2002 6 205 Steve Bellisari QB STL 0 0 0 Ohio St. College Stats 30 2001 6 172 Josh Booty QB SEA 0 0 0 LSU College Stats Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 31 2001 6 177 Josh Heupel QB MIA 0 0 0 Oklahoma College Stats 32 2000 6 168 Marc Bulger QB 23 NOR 2002 2009 0 2 7 57 96 95 41-54-0 1969 3171 22814 122 93 118 300 8 West Virginia College Stats 33 2000 6 183 Spergon Wynn QB 22 CLE 2000 2001 0 0 0 2 10 3 0-3-0 70 152 585 1 7 11 76 0 Texas St. College Stats 34 2000 6 199 Tom Brady QB 23 NWE 2000 2015 2 11 14 160 225 223 172-51-0 4953 7792 58028 428 150 504 876 17 Michigan College Stats 35 2000 6 202 Todd Husak QB 22 WAS 2000 2000 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 Stanford College Stats 36 2000 6 205 JaJuan Seider QB SDG 0 0 0 Florida A&M 37 1998 6 172 John Dutton QB MIA 0 0 0 Nevada College Stats 38 1998 6 187 Matt Hasselbeck QB 22 GNB 1999 2015 0 3 10 88 209 160 85-75-0 3222 5330 36638 212 153 365 1231 8 Boston Col. College Stats 39 1997 6 171 Mike Cherry QB 23 NYG 1997 1998 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 -5 0 Murray St. College Stats 40 1997 6 191 Chuck Clements QB 23 NYJ 1997 1997 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 -3 0 Houston College Stats 41 1996 6 203 Spence Fischer QB PIT 0 0 0 Duke College Stats 42 1996 6 205 Mike Cawley QB IND 0 0 0 James Madison 43 1995 6 191 Jerry Colquitt QB CAR 0 0 0 Tennessee College Stats 44 1995 6 197 Craig Whelihan QB 24 SDG 1997 1998 0 0 1 1 19 14 2-12-0 267 557 3160 14 29 31 67 0 Pacific College Stats

I mean there are only 5 guys on this list with any modicum of success.... Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback, Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson and Tyrod Taylor. Now, it just so happens that perhaps the greatest of all time is listed here...and that is why I used round 6. But, clearly, obviously....you don't really want to wait til round 6 to get your guy.

[The Gipper]

I did the same for round 5....not a single good QB came out of there......the best was Dan Orlovsky...really.

AJ McCarron could have a chance to be decent....but he is just a backup for now.

The best for round 4 is so so as well: Aaron Brooks, David Garrard, Kyle Orton. Kirk Cousins could at some point be the best there.

Round 7, best are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Cassel. Actually better than anyone in rounds 5 or 4.

Round 3: Best is Russell Wilson, followed by Matt Schaub, Brian Griese, Josh McCown, Nick Foles, Trent Edwards. Except for Wilson a grab bag.

Round 2 is better....best is Drew Brees (at #32...2d round at the time). Plummer, Dalton....Kaepernick is in here.

So, yea, no doubt, Round one is the place for QBs.... but still a crapshoot there.

[flyingfooldoug]

I'm hoping that P B n J see it that way too

[hoorta]

@babernakle said:

You don't get a qb for the sake of getting a qb there all third string qbs this year and the analytics say points over replacement what are we closer scoring more points or giving up more points we give up more than we score the defense needs fixed first

"However the 2016 leading quarterback prospect Carson Wentz and the No. 2 quarterback Jared Goff, are better as prospects than 2014's first signal-caller selected, the Jaguars' Blake Bortles. Wentz and Goff would be top-16 picks in any draft class.

Read more at http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php#IbjHeJfoqqjpzHWo.99"

Will you please give it up about Wentz and Goff being no better than say Connor Shaw? Hate to tell you but you're dead wrong.

[miktoxic]

these guys wouldn't even be talking defense (cuz they sure as hell weren't doing it the last couple of years) if bosa wasn't a top ten projected pick.