More Pre Draft Data Dump

The Gipper

1. Notes on the above:

A. Don't pick a WR that went to school in the state of Michigan 3 for 3 in busts.

B. Irving Fryar and Keyshawn Johnson are the only WRs taken #1 overall. While not HOFers, these were very good players. Certainly not busts.

The Gipper

Here is another factoid:

1197215Riley OdomsTE22DEN19721983241054153134252112396575541Houston College Stats

He is the ONLY Tight End taken in the first 5 picks of the draft since 1970

The Gipper

More data: Since 1970 only 6 Punters have been drafted in the first or second rounds.....two of them by the Browns.

1 1973 1 23 Ray Guy HOF P 23 OAK 1973 1986 3 7 14 32 207 0 Southern Miss

2 1979 1 11 Russell Erxleben P 22 NOR 1979 1987 0 0 4 8 59 0 Texas College Stats

3 1977 2 46 Tom Skladany P 22 CLE 1978 1983 0 1 4 12 61 0 Ohio St.

4 1978 2 39 Johnny Evans P 22 CLE 1978 1980 0 0 3 7 48 0 North Carolina St. College Stats

5 1982 2 34 Rohn Stark P 23 BAL 1982 1997 1 4 15 31 233 0 Florida St. College Stats

6 1995 2 56 Todd Sauerbrun P 22 CHI 1995 2007 2 3 3 25 178 0 West Virginia College Stats

Tour2ma

Jerry Butler was a bust?

AFC ROY in '79...
Pro Bowl in '80...
~2500 yds on 160 catches and 18 TDs in his first three seasons (45 games)...
Then missed about half of the next two seasons.

If your exercise is about abilities to judge talent, which is what I thought it has been, then injuries should not be included with the "bust" data.

The Gipper

@tour2ma said:

Jerry Butler was a bust?

AFC ROY in '79...

Pro Bowl in '80...

~2500 yds on 160 catches and 18 TDs in his first three seasons (45 games)...

Then missed about half of the next two seasons.

If your exercise is about abilities to judge talent, which is what I thought it has been, then injuries should not be included with the "bust" data.

I am really only looking at these guys in a vacuum in terms of their total career production against the other people on the list.

His numbers were less than Braylon Edwards who had Pro Bowls etc. but who I consider a bust. And, yes....injuries can cause a player to be considered a bust if it takes him off the field and unable to produce. That has happened to innumerable players from Steve Emtman to Kijana Carter to Tim Couch to Courtney Brown to perhaps this guy.

If its any consolation to you....I do not consider THIS Jerry Butler a bust:

Tour2ma

Well... observations made in a vacuum tend to suck.

If you did not know the name Gayle Sayers, looking at his place on a list would tell you he sucked.

I get Carter... hurt so early that we never got a read of his NFL potential. Similar occurrence in the QB list with Greg Cook. can't really build a case either way. What that means is that their data point should be excluded... placed in a 4th category, "Injured"... and not included with the busts.

But there is a point where an injured player showed enough to prove he was a good pick no matter his career numbers. Jerry Butler is a good example.

The Gipper

@tour2ma said:

Well... observations made in a vacuum tend to suck.

If you did not know the name Gayle Sayers, looking at his place on a list would tell you he sucked.

I get Carter... hurt so early that we never got a read of his NFL potential. Similar occurrence in the QB list with Greg Cook. can't really build a case either way. What that means is that their data point should be excluded... placed in a 4th category, "Injured"... and not included with the busts.

But there is a point where an injured player showed enough to prove he was a good pick no matter his career numbers. Jerry Butler is a good example.

Well, again, I just went by his career production average which was only a 35. My cutoff point at looking at that is somewhere around 45-50. Braylon had a 41...and I put his career in the "bust range".

Is this flawed? Sure.

If I looked at say Bo Jackson....his career production numbers would be low as well.

Your point is taken that a guy can have a flash in the pan career, yet be considered a very good pick....but that his total career accomplishment will be low in comparison to others that have longer careers.

The Gipper

Here is the data on the above, and another way to look at it:

Bo Jackson only had a 22 CA because he only played 4 years. 5.5 CA pts per year

Gale Sayers had a 59 CA in only like 6 years. 9.83 CA pts. per year.

Compare:

Emmitt Smith 170 in a 15 year career...11.33 CA pts. per year.

Walter Payton 168 in a 13 year career...12.92 CA pts per year.

Jim Brown had a 122 in a 9 year career....13.55 CA pts per year.

(maybe we should reassess Bo Jackson's short career....he had spectacular moments but apparently he was not really all that productive on a regular basis compared to Sayers/JB etc.

As to the WRs:

Butler did play 7 years and only had a CA of 35....5.0 CA pts per year

Braylon also played 7 years and had a 41 CA....or 5.85 CA pts per year

Compare Andre Johnson 13 years, 95 CA or 7.3 CA pts per year over a long stretch

The Gipper

I think with that production stat QBs get more points simply because they have the ball.

E.g Peyton Manning in 17 years had 271 CA pts. or 15.94 per year.

Tour2ma

Points all taken, Gip...

Again, I think it comes down to what is done with the data.

The Gipper

@tour2ma said:

Points all taken, Gip...

Again, I think it comes down to what is done with the data.

Yea, we can look at it different ways.......though I was surprised that Jackson yearly average production was so low.

Again....superflash in the pan apparently.

And that is something to consider with certain positions....like RB or WR. Perhaps they are like home run hitters......low on base pct, low batter average.....but you sure want one with the capability to hit the long ball. Jackson may have been that.....he was not a workhorse RB....but that home run hitter.

Who else may have had a career like that? Sayers perhaps?

Travis Benjamin recently for the Browns?

Bo Jackson was that in both football and baseball.