Odds of Busting

[The Gipper]

Here, per my own calculations are the "odds" or percentage chance that a particular draft slot player in the first round will bust out. I took these figures going back to the 1970 draft.

Slot/percentage of players that bust out:

#1 30.4%

#2 21.7%

#3 28.2%

#4 28.2%

#5 34.8%

#6 23.9%

#7 45.7%

#8 34.8%

#9 32.6%

#10 32.6%

#11 50.0%

#12 39.1%

#13 30.4%

#14 39.1%

#15 36.9%

#16 45.7%

#17 34.7%

#18 41.3%

#19 36.9%

#20 47.8%

#21 50.0%

#22 50.0%

#23 52.2%

#24 52.2%

#25 54.4%

#26 52.1%

#27 58.6%

#28 58.6%

#29 47.8%

#30 54.3%

#31 56.5%

#32 58.6%

Notice: You have just as good or better chance of getting a solid to good/great player if you draft #2, 3, 4, 6,13 as you do drafting #1 overall.

Drafting #7 and #11 are bad spots for players busting out.

[PoeticG]

Woah, mind blown!

We just threw out our #1 chance of selecting a non-bust @ #2! LOL

[Zombo]

We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.

Z

[Opal312]

Jadevon Clowney, Mario Williams, Courtney Brown, Tim Couch,

[Comeonman]

Zombo said:

We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.

Z

lmao. 22 is the first spot I looked at after #1

[Canton Mike]

@comeonman said:

lmao. 22 is the first spot I looked at after #1

Me too! LOL

I have no idea how long I'm gonna live, but I'm not sure I could survive another 22nd pick.

Mike

[The Gipper]

Zombo said:

We single-handedly took #22 to the 50% mark. It would been in the 40's.

Z

Think what #3 would have been if not for us: Braylon, TR.....at least we had JT.