The Most Overated Stat In Football
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Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
No way there are four 14-2 teams.
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Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
First, way too early pass at this...
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
I gave this a shot...
I was surprised at the below returns
Bucs 5-11 , expect they'll be better than that
Texans 4-12, see above
Dolphins 6-10, see above
Bengals 7-9, think they'll be worse than that
Broncos 11-5, see above
Have NYG over Pit (ugh) in the SB
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Yes. And it's only to judge really after the preseason as well. If you look at a schedule now then just wait until kickoff its going to look a lot different.@ghoolie said:
I was the first to point out that only an asshole thinks this is important. What a team was in 2016 bears no meaning on what they will be in 2017. EXCEPT for the Browns. A game against the browns is a 16 - 1 odds chance of a win.
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Read that quote as far as "I"...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.
But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Gerbil Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.
But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Gerbil Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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Most overrated stat?
All of them except for winning, bitches
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Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
Same as last year we thought the same thing right?
They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
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Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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Same as last year we thought the same thing right?
They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players. We need to live in reality here, though that seems to have gone out of style in this country. Let's say that the Browns made good steps for improvement in the draft.
Anyway, I think the most overrated statistic is 40 yard dash time. There are players who are fast when timed but without results on the field (ex, Dri Archer), and there are players who are slow when timed but somehow produce yardage (ex, Jerry Rice). And it is irrelevant for say, D-linemen. If you depend on them running 40 yards something is very wrong.
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They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players. We need to live in reality here, though that seems to have gone out of style in this country. Let's say that the Browns made good steps for improvement in the draft.
Anyway, I think the most overrated statistic is 40 yard dash time. There are players who are fast when timed but without results on the field (ex, Dri Archer), and there are players who are slow when timed but somehow produce yardage (ex, Jerry Rice). And it is irrelevant for say, D-linemen. If you depend on them running 40 yards something is very wrong.
TitsburghCome on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players. We need to live in reality here, though that seems to have gone out of style in this country. Let's say that the Browns made good steps for improvement in the draft.
Anyway, I think the most overrated statistic is 40 yard dash time. There are players who are fast when timed but without results on the field (ex, Dri Archer), and there are players who are slow when timed but somehow produce yardage (ex, Jerry Rice). And it is irrelevant for say, D-linemen. If you depend on them running 40 yards something is very wrong.
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Not sure if this counts, but occasionally when a good team (and most people know they are good) starts off the season on a slump like 2-3 or something and they quote the percent chance of making the playoffs and it's a low number. Sometimes good teams have a really tough starting schedule or their tough break loses come early, and you know they have a lot better shot at making the playoffs than the crap percentage they spout off, but they get lumped with some low percentage based on all the crappy teams that have also started off bad.
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They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players. We need to live in reality here, though that seems to have gone out of style in this country. Let's say that the Browns made good steps for improvement in the draft.
Anyway, I think the most overrated statistic is 40 yard dash time. There are players who are fast when timed but without results on the field (ex, Dri Archer), and there are players who are slow when timed but somehow produce yardage (ex, Jerry Rice). And it is irrelevant for say, D-linemen. If you depend on them running 40 yards something is very wrong.
Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players.
You didn't watch that game then. Pitt sat their three players....and Browns should have won the game going away. Only their own stupid fuckups prevented them winning.
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Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players.
You didn't watch that game then. Pitt sat their three players....and Browns should have won the game going away. Only their own stupid fuckups prevented them winning.
Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players.
You didn't watch that game then. Pitt sat their three players....and Browns should have won the game going away. Only their own stupid fuckups prevented them winning.
Well if that's all there is to it, the Browns got three good players this year so let's just sit back and watch the playoff appearances accrue.
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Come on pgh was one win from going to the super bowl, the Browns were one win away from no wins. There is a lot more difference than three players.
You didn't watch that game then. Pitt sat their three players....and Browns should have won the game going away. Only their own stupid fuckups prevented them winning.
Well if that's all there is to it, the Browns got three good players this year so let's just sit back and watch the playoff appearances accrue.
Well if that's all there is to it, the Browns got three good players this year so let's just sit back and watch the playoff appearances accrue.
Three players can an do make a world of difference. It has to be the right 3. Not sure if we have those. Hopefully.
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Well if that's all there is to it, the Browns got three good players this year so let's just sit back and watch the playoff appearances accrue.
Three players can an do make a world of difference. It has to be the right 3. Not sure if we have those. Hopefully.
Three players can an do make a world of difference. It has to be the right 3. Not sure if we have those. Hopefully.
IMHO the problem has been the tendency to look for an immediate savior in the draft. Bad teams do that, but good teams develop players. They have to, because the perennial contenders are guaranteed not to even get a whiff of the few top players who may be good right out of the box. With bad teams, much of the time players are what they are and don't develop.
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Back to the topic....my answer is "interceptions".
How many are caused by 1) Improperly run routes & 2) Bouncing off "brick hands" (see Braylon, Ricardo, etc, etc)?
Mike
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Takeaways in general are largely based on luck. It all reverts to a mean over time.
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