Who's #1?
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The QB Class of this draft - like many drafts, every prospect has areas of concern. I'm not in any hurry to crown 1 guy King just yet. It's okay to like more than 1 guy at this time.
I began the year entrenched in Sam Darnold after his Rose Bowl performance vrs Penn State and a TD:INT ratio of 31:9 during his Freshman season.That showed me a guy that could win his Conference and beat the Big 10 Champion right after doing so. Unfortunately 2017 unfolded many imperfections I was unaware of like his inability to learn how to protect/secure the ball in the pocket via a volume of fumbles resembling that of Kizer. His TD:INT ratio also took a big hit dropping to 26:13 even though he led his team to a 2nd consecutive Pac 12 Title. It looked like he improved upon some of his carelessness for a while until he played Ohio State's NFL caliber pass rush he wanted no part of. He did make some beautiful throws and ran for some first downs; but most viewers remember his bad decisions and his fumbling against the closest NFL barometer he played. Too much Darnold Duck. My goofy take? He doesn't need to go back to the best program in the Pac 12 to solve his fumbling issue. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Hue did a very good job with his inexperienced QB at protecting the football... So, is he the right guy for our current situation (inclusive of my biggest disappointment Hue)? I really don't know; but I encourage anyone to put the tape of him against Penn State from a year ago. My football wood factor went from balsa to sequoia. If he does come out - I know what he's capable of if we ever get better at this drafting thing...
Baker Mayfield. Fun to watch the last 2-3 years. He beat Ohio State's team in Columbus, which isn't easy. The TD:INT ratio of 41:5 heading into the BCS game was about as good of a season as he can have. A big question he'll have to answer just like other guys with similar frames had to such as: Drew Brees, Warren Moon, Joe Theisman, and even Jeff Garcia had to answer - is how soon can he get it if ever? None of those guys were immediate before frequent participation in NFL post seasons and Pro Bowls. SD drafted a QB first overall the off season prior to Brees' 4th NFL year. They traded Eli to NY for Rivers (after drafting Eli 1st overall), who held out the length of training camp - and Brees made his first Pro Bowl with a 12-4 record in his 4th NFL season. The 3 other guys I mentioned had to begin their careers in the CFL. I've heard commentators compare him to Russell Wilson but I don't think he'll be nearly as elusive at the next level as Russell is behind a suspect line. Russell Wilson, who is even shorter than Brees, Moon, Theisman and Garcia - got it quicker than all of them. This guy had to walk on to 2 different D-I programs before he got to beat all those programs saving their scholarships for players of less significance. Another guy that was only about 6' tall (Brian Sipe) was told he didn't have the arm strength to make it in this league. He's the only League MVP I've seen at our QB position in my life as a fan with a 3 year stretch of averaging more than 4000 yards passing in an era that was unheard of. I wouldn't hate this pick at all. He may be my favorite candidate before we draft.
Josh Rosen. He's got a 3 year body of work with impressive stats. I've seen UCLA play 4 times this year. He only finished 2 of his 3 starts in those and they lost em both to Memphis and USC. He got hurt in the first half vrs Cal (with a bruised back) and they won. Then I saw some of their Bowl Game vrs KSU that he couldn't suit up for (due to another injury) and they lost. He's also had multiple concussions. Durability issues + our situation already has me reading in silly season that he hopes the Giants draft him and Dorsey isn't interested. Stay tuned...
Josh Allen. Earlier in the year he struggled against opponents he probably needed to play better if he's to show bad NFL teams he's the right guy for their situation. In their loss 24-3 loss to Iowa he went 23-40 for 174 yds with 0 TD 2 INTs. In their 49-13 loss to Oregon, he completed 9 of 24 for 64 yds with 0 TD to 1 INT. In their 24-14 loss to Boise State he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 131 yds 1 TD and 2 INTs. Prior to the 1 game I did watch him play and look terrific, he had a TD:INT ratio of 13:6 in his final season at Wyoming. I've heard Todd McShay say he doesn't think it's nearly as easy for programs like Wyoming to re-stock their skill/play-maker positions as the elite big time programs, which impacted Allen's 2017 performance. All that said, he looked very good vrs Central Michigan going 11-19 for 154 yds and 3 TDs with 0 INTs. Very strong arm displayed on his first TD pass of the game with an accurate rope. He looks mobile and throws an accurate ball on the run at least in that game. I like his height too. When he faced more talented teams in 2017, did he ever escalate the play of his teammates to have a shot at beating any of them in the 4th quarter? That may not be a fair question but what's fair about taking snaps in Cleveland folks?
Mason Rudolph. Great numbers, great career, strong arm, ideal frame as Oklahoma State won 10 games in each of his last 3 seasons. Gipper already pronounces his name Muh son because he loves the kid like a son. He's been pretty fun to watch over the years. I wouldn't mind this pick either.
Lamar Jackson. I forgot to include him so I'll edit him into this discussion. Had a similar TD:INT ratio to that of Sam Darnold in 2016 with 30 TD to 9 INT. Scouts like his arm strength. Has decent height 6'3". He can scramble as we've seen but this makes his risk of survival risky at best. I read 1 scout said he's more raw than Patrick Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech a year ago. He wouldn't be my choice at #1 overall; but I've been wrong before.
Looking forward to watching this all shake out.
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Pretty much nailed it Tom. Other than I think you know how me & Ag feel about Allen. The Bowl game was an abberation. He gives me the heebie-jeebies. Saw around 4 other of his games, sure he lost some talent this year, but wrs can't catch the ball if it's not in the same area code. His 56% completion percentage, compared to Mayfield's 70+% is definitely a concern. To pull a Ghoolie, Allen could well be a white Deshone Kizer. For some of the short attention spans, Kizer was being touted as the #1 QB prospect from some quarters last year. Plus, almost all the reviews have Josh as the least "pro ready" of the major prospects. He's going to have to sit behind a experienced starter.
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I don't understand the allure of Allen, I really don't. His numbers are truly awful. I don't care how big he is. Pass.
It's more bad luck for us. No clear cut #1 option at QB, and this is why I firmly believe we're betting the farm on getting an experienced veteran.
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I don't understand the allure of Allen, I really don't. His numbers are truly awful. I don't care how big he is. Pass.
It's more bad luck for us. No clear cut #1 option at QB, and this is why I firmly believe we're betting the farm on getting an experienced veteran.
I don't understand the allure of Allen, I really don't. His numbers are truly awful. I don't care how big he is. Pass.
It's more bad luck for us. No clear cut #1 option at QB, and this is why I firmly believe we're betting the farm on getting an experienced veteran.
Understood but what veteran QB in the right mind is thinking "I want me some Cleveland" right about now? I keep hearing names like Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, and AJ McCarron - but I'd be really surprised if 1-31 football in Cleveland doesn't have them looking elsewhere like Arizona, NYJ, NYG, Denver, etc...
I welcome the only Defensive Coordinator to earn a Superbowl Ring in New Orleans while understanding Revenge of the Nerds is a sequel. "Come get some!" -
each QB has his own strengths and weaknesses. The problem is I don't think Hue "the QB guru" is capable of coaching anyone out of those weaknesses. Rosen seemed like the most NFL-ready but has major injury concerns and i don't think he will last long here (one nice thing about Kizer, he can at least take a hit). Of all these QBs, I like Mayfield and would not mind at all using the #1 pick on him, but I think he will be available at #4 which still begs the question; who to use the #1 on? Glaring holes would be the WR corps and the secondary on defense, but do the Browns burn a #1 pick on one of those positions? Do they continue THE PROCESS and trade down to amass more picks? Tough decisions coming up. I'd be worried about using the #1 on Allen which seems to be the latest gossip, but if he doesn't have to start right away it might not be so bad. I really wish the Browns were capable of coaching people up but for many of the "top picks" we have had it seems like when they join this team they forget how to play football.
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Here's how I see things, put simply.
Rosen is clearly the best prospect, and really it's not even close. Barring the concussion issues being serious (which they could be), there's not much from a talent perspective to hate on. It's clear for anyone who doesn't have their head in their butt *coughCALcough* that the personality stuff is clearly overblown. He also has never once said he won't play for Cleveland, but maybe that ends up being true.
Darnold comes in 2nd, but it's distant from Rosen. The turnovers are scary to say the least, but man that arm talent is strong. Inbetween turnovers against OSU Darnold was throwing footballs Kizer could only dream of throwing. He's going to be a top 10 guy, but the turnover bug is scary and makes you wonder, strongly, if he can overcome it.
We know enough about Mayfield, but the dude with the most intrigue after that is Lamar Jackson. I'm not saying I'm for or against him, but it's going to be a serious question of "what would Lamar have done on a team like Alabama or Clemson?" type of argument for him. It's plain to see that Lamar had to be the be all, end all playmaker for Louisville. He suffered countless drops and other bad play by his teammates and preformed at Heisman level despite that. With the success of Watson last year, I'd bet strongly he goes top 15. Could he be the guy at 4 for Cleveland?
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each QB has his own strengths and weaknesses. The problem is I don't think Hue "the QB guru" is capable of coaching anyone out of those weaknesses. Rosen seemed like the most NFL-ready but has major injury concerns and i don't think he will last long here (one nice thing about Kizer, he can at least take a hit). Of all these QBs, I like Mayfield and would not mind at all using the #1 pick on him, but I think he will be available at #4 which still begs the question; who to use the #1 on? Glaring holes would be the WR corps and the secondary on defense, but do the Browns burn a #1 pick on one of those positions? Do they continue THE PROCESS and trade down to amass more picks? Tough decisions coming up. I'd be worried about using the #1 on Allen which seems to be the latest gossip, but if he doesn't have to start right away it might not be so bad. I really wish the Browns were capable of coaching people up but for many of the "top picks" we have had it seems like when they join this team they forget how to play football.
each QB has his own strengths and weaknesses. The problem is I don't think Hue "the QB guru" is capable of coaching anyone out of those weaknesses. Rosen seemed like the most NFL-ready but has major injury concerns and i don't think he will last long here (one nice thing about Kizer, he can at least take a hit). Of all these QBs, I like Mayfield and would not mind at all using the #1 pick on him, but I think he will be available at #4 which still begs the question; who to use the #1 on? Glaring holes would be the WR corps and the secondary on defense, but do the Browns burn a #1 pick on one of those positions? Do they continue THE PROCESS and trade down to amass more picks? Tough decisions coming up. I'd be worried about using the #1 on Allen which seems to be the latest gossip, but if he doesn't have to start right away it might not be so bad. I really wish the Browns were capable of coaching people up but for many of the "top picks" we have had it seems like when they join this team they forget how to play football.
I've been thinking the same thing. Let's look at the draft order. I have no problems flipping picks with the Giants- assuming Rosen is their guy and he doesn't want to come to Cleveland. The X factor is the Colts- who don't need a qb, and might be willing to trade down for the right price. They have plenty of holes on their team too.
Our departed draft scenario dreamer Shep might have cooked this one up. We flip picks with the Giants, moving from #1 to #2, gaining their third round pick. Then we trade up with the Colts (they move from #3 down to #4), giving them the pick we got from the Giants. So we're sitting at #2 and #3. Get the QB the Giants don't take and anyone else we have a fancy for.
I just don't think we're going to sit @ #4 hoping no one under us- won't do a sell the ranch deal to get the Colts pick, and we're left holding the bag again in the QB derby. Realistically, only the qb needy Broncos & Jets are in a position to move up- Arizona is so far down they'd have to give up too much to move from #15 to #3. (I'd LOVE to see Mayfield fall to #4, but I sure wouldn't count on it.) Last year no one (except Ghoolie with his crystal ball) thought Trubisky was going to get picked #2.
Other issue is- I don't see anyone other than qb at this point that's worth the #1 overall.
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@boo-fagley said:
The difference between 56% and 70% is...
... being picked Day One vs. Day Three.
I'm still seeing Rosen and then the rest... a/k/a "the field". But my serious work is still to come.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
If you just go by various passing stats while in college...then these are your boys:
Completion pcts:
Mayfield 70.5
Jake Browning 68.5
Luke Falk 66.9
Rating:
Mayfield: 198
Mason Rudolph 170
Drew Lock 165 (I rounded the numbers)
Yards per attempt:
Mayfield: 11.5
Rudolph 10.2
Lock 9.5
Total passing yards:
Rudolph 4904
Mayfield 4627
Riley Ferguson 4257
TD passes:
Lock: 44
Mayfield: 43
Ferguson: 38
Here is a good question: Riley Ferguson plays for Memphis. Is he a better pro prospect than Paxton Lynch was? Or is Memphis like a Big 12 team...there offensive system is the key to all the big numbers...that and the piss poor defensed they play?
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Yeah!! Calendar dates....plan your football junkie days off (or close?).. https://www.thephinsider.com/2018/1/3/16843444/when-is-the-draft-when-is-free-agency-2018-nfl-calendar-regular-season-week-1
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I don't understand the allure of Allen, I really don't. His numbers are truly awful. I don't care how big he is. Pass.
It's more bad luck for us. No clear cut #1 option at QB, and this is why I firmly believe we're betting the farm on getting an experienced veteran.
I don't understand the allure of Allen, I really don't. His numbers are truly awful. I don't care how big he is. Pass.
It's more bad luck for us. No clear cut #1 option at QB, and this is why I firmly believe we're betting the farm on getting an experienced veteran.
This +100,000,000 Lots of teams can afford one of these scratch off lottery tickets, I think its apparent we cannot. I would think that from the perspective of both the owner and most fans we need to win immediately or risk complete implosion next year. Hell its close to that now. I see us far more likely pursuing Cousins with Alex Smith as the drop back position. I see us taking Saquon Barkley and maybe Fitzpatrick (perhaps Derwin James) in the 1st round. I see us taking one of the aforementioned QB's in the 2nd round when they fall to us to develop behind our vet along with Kizer. We will be very active in FA adding another WR weapon and LB's. The balance of the draft we take best pick available. This to me is the only sensible way to catapult this team to immediate contention. I think this is very in line with how Dorsey worked magic in KC as well.
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If you just go by various passing stats while in college...then these are your boys:
Completion pcts:
Mayfield 70.5
Jake Browning 68.5
Luke Falk 66.9
Rating:
Mayfield: 198
Mason Rudolph 170
Drew Lock 165 (I rounded the numbers)
Yards per attempt:
Mayfield: 11.5
Rudolph 10.2
Lock 9.5
Total passing yards:
Rudolph 4904
Mayfield 4627
Riley Ferguson 4257
TD passes:
Lock: 44
Mayfield: 43
Ferguson: 38
Here is a good question: Riley Ferguson plays for Memphis. Is he a better pro prospect than Paxton Lynch was? Or is Memphis like a Big 12 team...there offensive system is the key to all the big numbers...that and the piss poor defensed they play?
Here is a good question: Riley Ferguson plays for Memphis. Is he a better pro prospect than Paxton Lynch was? Or is Memphis like a Big 12 team...there offensive system is the key to all the big numbers...that and the piss poor defensed they play?
Gip, am Not sure what Memphis QB coaches teach? Watched Riley Ferguson in HS up the road from Matthews,NC. Seem Riley has that same long weird whine up as Paxton & sometimes brings the ball down to bad areas in or out of pocket..Did ya watch Riley's match up against Rosen? good shoot out (once u pass Memphis dizzy unies
)
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Rosen. No Mayfield.
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Number 1 is.........................................................Rosen to the Giants as we trade down and then select Saquan Barkley with the Giants pick. Fitzpatrick with the next pick and grab the QB who slides (likely either Allen or Baker) in the 2nd (or a trade up into bottom of the 1st)
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each QB has his own strengths and weaknesses. The problem is I don't think Hue "the QB guru" is capable of coaching anyone out of those weaknesses. Rosen seemed like the most NFL-ready but has major injury concerns and i don't think he will last long here (one nice thing about Kizer, he can at least take a hit). Of all these QBs, I like Mayfield and would not mind at all using the #1 pick on him, but I think he will be available at #4 which still begs the question; who to use the #1 on? Glaring holes would be the WR corps and the secondary on defense, but do the Browns burn a #1 pick on one of those positions? Do they continue THE PROCESS and trade down to amass more picks? Tough decisions coming up. I'd be worried about using the #1 on Allen which seems to be the latest gossip, but if he doesn't have to start right away it might not be so bad. I really wish the Browns were capable of coaching people up but for many of the "top picks" we have had it seems like when they join this team they forget how to play football.
I've been thinking the same thing. Let's look at the draft order. I have no problems flipping picks with the Giants- assuming Rosen is their guy and he doesn't want to come to Cleveland. The X factor is the Colts- who don't need a qb, and might be willing to trade down for the right price. They have plenty of holes on their team too.
Our departed draft scenario dreamer Shep might have cooked this one up. We flip picks with the Giants, moving from #1 to #2, gaining their third round pick. Then we trade up with the Colts (they move from #3 down to #4), giving them the pick we got from the Giants. So we're sitting at #2 and #3. Get the QB the Giants don't take and anyone else we have a fancy for.
I just don't think we're going to sit @ #4 hoping no one under us- won't do a sell the ranch deal to get the Colts pick, and we're left holding the bag again in the QB derby. Realistically, only the qb needy Broncos & Jets are in a position to move up- Arizona is so far down they'd have to give up too much to move from #15 to #3. (I'd LOVE to see Mayfield fall to #4, but I sure wouldn't count on it.) Last year no one (except Ghoolie with his crystal ball) thought Trubisky was going to get picked #2.
Other issue is- I don't see anyone other than qb at this point that's worth the #1 overall.
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@boo-fagley said:
Allen is the right call and Dorsey is rumored to love him. Could all be BS though. Darnold might not come out so the prospects are dwindling if true.
Hey Boo, did you actually read what was in that link? Hardly flattering to Allen, and a damn good reason IMHO to not taking the chance on him.
"and lower than a 57% completion rate, the 6-foot-5, 220-pounder is rubbing shoulders with the likes of NFL whiffs Christian Hackenberg, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, Joey Harrington and Tom Savage"
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@boo-fagley said:
The combine is still to come.
Dont put your mock draft in ink just yet.
QBs throwing against no pressure while wearing shorts and throwing to uncovered WRs is going to prove Allen's worth?
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It's a team game. Just ridiculous to lay a completion percentage rate on whether or not to
draft a qb. It's tough to find the right guy.
Stats are bogus as the only source of picking.
Great players who play with smaller colleges won't rank on stats as much as mediocre players
with great teams around them, and dominant in their conference.
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html
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