Baker has turned the corner
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I've been watching far to many 'Junk Steps' in Odel's short & intermediate routes on the all 22.. the timing & sight routes are getting Baker bailing out of the pocket..
Watch the OBJ & Hodge bombs? even the big gainer that Landry catches in 2nd at 11:37..They all had the same things in common.. Bakers front foot is buried on the ground in the pocket..Bake leads them all to the ball to catching it..
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The good news is Baker is coming back to his old dangerous ways..... If letting Callaway go is part of the catalyst for that to happen.. so be it... I'm not gonna blame him lol...Baker has worked his ass off.. I pray he will continue to stay the course and run....
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Baker's guy Njoku should be back this week.
OBJ, Landry, Higgins, Njoku, Chubb and Hunt are six effective weapons for a dangerous QB to have in his arsenal.
The secret of getting ahead is getting started. The secret of getting started is breaking your complex overwhelming tasks into small manageable tasks, and then starting on the first one. -Mark Twain- "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." -Mark Twain- -
Here's the rub though.... This "improving" offense still can't score points.
And with the defense in the shape it is in, that is going to be very important. Scoring 20 points a game is not going to cut it.
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Here's the rub though.... This "improving" offense still can't score points.
And with the defense in the shape it is in, that is going to be very important. Scoring 20 points a game is not going to cut it.
Here's the rub though.... This "improving" offense still can't score points.
And with the defense in the shape it is in, that is going to be very important. Scoring 20 points a game is not going to cut it.
Yeah, I think you're MOSTLY right. Here's the one caveat....we've literally been playing top 5 defenses for what seems like the past 5 weeks. The teams we played haven't given up that many points to basically anyone, so while we definitely haven't been CLICKING, it's also not TOO damning to see us struggle to capitalize on our opportunities.
That's what makes this Dolphins game so vital for our offense. We're FINALLY playing a team that's not a defensive juggernaut. Miami ranks 19th against the pass, and like 30th against the rush (per CBS app). That's a stark contrast to the other teams we played, so if we're REALLY taking steps forward, we'll be able to tell next Sunday.
Edit: One thing that bothered me at the end of the game was Baker's last TD pass. We were in a situation where a FG makes the game a two score lead, and that would be virtually insurmountable in a game where Rudolph was struggling so hard. Baker rifled a contested ball to a rookie who really wasn't open. It was a chance we didn't need to take. The WORST part was Hodge was WIDE OPEN across the middle in the same exact sight line. I don't know how he didn't see him. Would've been a much safer and easier toss.
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Here's the rub though.... This "improving" offense still can't score points.
And with the defense in the shape it is in, that is going to be very important. Scoring 20 points a game is not going to cut it.
Here's the rub though.... This "improving" offense still can't score points.
And with the defense in the shape it is in, that is going to be very important. Scoring 20 points a game is not going to cut it.
To that effect, ball control, minimizing clock, avoiding turnovers and working to sustain drives can help should the point crunch become extended. Gives the defense time to regroup and rest as well.
I'm not pleased with a 21 point game despite being +3 or +4 in turnover differential. But given that it was against a very good Pittsburgh defense whose offense can't give them point support, I'll wait to see further results before I establish a mindset re: performance on that side of the ball.
Moving forward if this offense stays on the + side of the turnover margin and puts up a median of 27 a game? Yeah... I'm good with that.
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Do tell. I know he got “lucky” on a couple passes, but luck is fickle like that and one could argue he was on the other side of lady luck earlier games in the season. Baker’s still gonna be gunslinger-like, so he’s gonna make some bad throws, but lessening those bad throws is what l feel like he’s done the last few games.
So I had a lovely additional tab open with youtube links and about a paragraph already typed up before I left this morning. Looks like my computer locked up because I reset and chrome didn't save shit. Apologies for the condensed response because this was going to be FAR more detailed at first. Now I'm a bit time crunched as usual. But In it I had time stamped examples of things I see to support my belief(s)... which boils down to the following.
- I believe Baker is missing quite a bit pre-snap. This is a result of play calls not getting in on time, perhaps some new language, and game itself moving too fast for the young QB. Sure, he may "see" things, but they don't register at the speed they should. This is where I linked to box counts, split counts, and defensive shifts that have put the offense into positions the QB should be looking to avoid. Remember the safety flying down on Chubb on 3rd and short? Baker never saw it coming. The 5th man off the edge this past weekend vs the Bills? Baker never saw him. Again, I can circle back around and say that it isn't all* on Baker. At least, I would certainly hope not. Because that would mean some of the problems are systemic and thus very fixable.
- Baker still has a tendency to force things post-snap and isn't moving his eyes quick enough. It's quintessential Farve in a sense. The Seahawks game was another one where I had time stamps showing Baker missing WIDE OPEN, easy throws with a ton of YAC potential. Instead he settled for what he read off rip and, while at times made the completion, other times forced the ball where it had zero business going. That amazing catch by ODB near the sidelines? Baker had a #2 receiver with 3 yards of separation just up and off to his right for 13 yards and the easy first down. It reminds me of a throw he made vs the Eagles his rookie year. I'll never forget it because, in my mind, gave a foreshadow to the QB I hope Baker isn't going to remain. I've had this video bookmarked from my comments on Chubb starting last year (go back and check, but I believe I mentioned that Chubb would fit much better with Hue engineering more zone runs for him... fastforward and Chub has made my assessment look brilliant)
Go to 0:20 in that video. That is against a pretty vanilla cover 3. To that side the #1 is Higgy and the #2 is Njoku. Baker saw the zone, had time to let the defender expand, eye'd the safety down the hash but... (here's the theme starting with the Texans game last year) never checked the underneath defender(s). He makes a great throw to Higgy on the sideline, and, yes - he got the 1st down. But it was a throw that his coaches should have dinged him for. It was, IMHO, turnover worthy. Granted the line between those big throws and turnover worthy throws is razor thin at times. But you already see that if Baker goes from CB to safety to underneath, his eyes would have taken him to (another theme you'll notice) a WIDE OPEN Njoku as the #2. All Mayfield has to do is put the ball to David's inside shoulder and he could walk for another 5 yards. Easy, effective and safe.
See, this is where the inherit gunslinger QB is revealed as both brilliant and flawed. Baker made the throw and I won't attempt to bullshit that part. He put the sauce on it and did it with great placement for a big play. But he DIDN'T have to. Baker made this conversion much more difficult than it had to be. Now sure, you can say that was his rookie year and such. But there were a couple moments vs that similar vanilla cover 3 we just saw from Seattle where our QB did some of those familiar things I just pointed out to you. And that in a nutshell highlights my concern re: a lack of "growth" and being at NFL speed mentally.
I find myself asking this question over the course of the last few weeks - Baker is statistically better than what he was when the season started... But is HE* really playing better? Or is this the sum of reeling in our(young) turnover prone QB, running the offense through Chubb and attempting to emulate a dash of the offensive success we experienced starting the same time last year?
edit: Also concern in my mind re: erratic footwork at times, the lack of pocket manipulation and reverting back to missing passes high/ball placement.
We'll see what happens tomorrow night. But I'm not hoping on this "Baker's light is back on" train. I don't believe in making snap judgements like that on most things. And should Thursday be a god damn disaster, well, this thread is going to be worth a re-read.
So I had a lovely additional tab open with youtube links and about a paragraph already typed up before I left this morning. Looks like my computer locked up because I reset and chrome didn't save shit. Apologies for the condensed response because this was going to be FAR more detailed at first.
Your crotchety old buddy Flugel (and former cyber sparring partner) says don't let it happen again! Do you hear me?
Just kidding! Well done! You bring up a lot of good points backed with examples. That's awesome for 2 reasons. 1) The length of space required for clarification and use of examples terrifies new millennials; and 2) It shows me/others why you feel a certain way.
I feel like I've seen a completely different Baker than I saw in 2018. I forget the percentages of our red zone scoring last year vrs that of this year in spite of the issues at kicker in 2018; but we were much better in 2018. Last year, Baker's pre-snap intellect had him getting the ball out quicker and with more accuracy to the extent many of us were posting how good that made the pass pro look. I don't remember seeing a little beer belly on Baker last year either; but he closed the summer with bachelor parties, wedding, honey moon and chugging beers at Tribe games, which ultimately changed how often he has attempted to scoot out of the pocket even when he's had some ideal gimmes to do so at times.
Anyway, here's some things I think that has impacted him:
1. Position Coach Change. The experienced QB Coach he had last year had him on his pre-snap keys and pushed the fundamentals and mechanics more than I've seen this year (ie; throwing during a backward hop). If 1 more person tells him he's the next Brett Favre - I'm gonna hire someone to remind him he needs to be the next Drew Brees (who played bad enough in his 3rd NFL season for SD to draft a QB 1st overall). Believe it or not, hiding the football in playaction is a doable if it becomes a fundamental that gets repeated every day in practice. That said, this era doesn't wait that long so the pre-snap reads, weekly film study, and mechanics are of the utmost importance. I heard Bruce Arians say that taking an avoidable sack in pocket is less forgivable than an INT which is consistent with his "No risk it - no biscuit" mentality. Baker has taken too many of these this year. Arians also said this also has a tendency to lead to QBs fumbling the ball away which we've seen from Baker more than we wanted to.
2. Tight End & Red Zone Dynamics. Last year, DeShaun Watson struggled when injuries depleted his WRs not named D-Hop. There was no TE presence or big time help. This year he has a TE that leads all TEs in scoring while his other TEs are pretty helpful as well. He doesn't have to overwork DHop, which clobbers my Fantasy Football team appropriately named Drink Beer. Also keep in mind, we have a 1st round TE that could X-factor easier coverages on teammates or at least threaten an ability to score more frequently with our TE. Right now, we don't even scare a cub scout troop with our TEs. And not for nothing, what would be so wrong with moving Chubb up closer to QB so we can just wedge/down block these 1 yard gimmes that were turning into 2 yard losses in spite of Chubb ranking 2nd in the NFL for yards after contact (which has prolly decreased in the last few weeks). This shouldn't be nearly as impossible as our offensive coaches have made it. Once we start tapping these 2 dynamics better when Njoku returns, it could invite better play-action IF our QB Coach has Baker sharpen the playaction skills.
3. Record Setting Rookie Season Means Something. The challenge of our GM and coaching staff is this. Understand the importance of chemistry and continuity in this game and why the lack of it has haunted this franchise since 99. Dating all the way back to when Drew Brees took a favored Saints team to face a 7-9 Seahawks team QBed by David Whitehurst in the playoffs. A formula of push the pocket into intimate space of Bree's in a 3 step drop, and you remove the eliteness of Brees while Seattle upset the heavily favored Saints. Guess New Orleans has tried to be strong at since? OG. When Pro Bowl OG Andrus Peat got injured last week the Saints got overwhelmed by a strong push up the middle (coincidentally, I think ATL's HC and DC was the DC for Seattle in that playoff game I alluded to so he remembered how to beat Drew Brees). We sent Zeitler packing and Baker felt the difference in comfort particularly in the short passing game. We also had a dual purpose TE that was very helpful blocking in short yardage that we let go (Fells). While Higgins didn't have big numbers per say, he came up big a lot to extend drives and he hasn't been available much as well as how often Callaway was unavailable to build on last year's chem/continuity. We're still putting strangers out there like Hodge, who impressed me but it's not like auto chem comes easy. Whatever we had going for a QB that took over an 0-16 team that also started out winless and gave Baker a 14-0 deficit the night he got his first game action - something changed drastically for the better and it was the QB position. We won the first game he appeared and it didn't take any of us very long to how quickly, decisively and accurately he got rid of the ball through his rookie setting TD pass season in spite of only 13 starts. look at everything that changed except for Jarvis. Baker has already had 3 different OCs at 23 starts olds. Not good! I thought our 2018 OL coach did a pretty decent job considering the challenge of replacing Joe Thomas at LT and he's gone as well as Zampese. IMO, when you're really showing epic progress, the worst thing you can do is change as much continuity as this FO changed on it's QB who was only 13 starts old heading into 2019. They've removed a lot of the things that helped Baker for a lot of things that haven't helped him very much just yet.
Just a few thoughts....
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Baker's guy Njoku should be back this week.
OBJ, Landry, Higgins, Njoku, Chubb and Hunt are six effective weapons for a dangerous QB to have in his arsenal.
Baker's guy Njoku should be back this week.
OBJ, Landry, Higgins, Njoku, Chubb and Hunt are six effective weapons for a dangerous QB to have in his arsenal.
Indeed....yet why then has the offense sputtered so much, especially in the red zone?
Is it just that our OL is highly deficient? (I think part of it)
Is it that the playcalling and schemes are highly deficient? (I think part of it)
Is it just that the QB has not been efficient and has missed open receivers? (I think part of it)
S
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So I had a lovely additional tab open with youtube links and about a paragraph already typed up before I left this morning. Looks like my computer locked up because I reset and chrome didn't save shit. Apologies for the condensed response because this was going to be FAR more detailed at first.
Your crotchety old buddy Flugel (and former cyber sparring partner) says don't let it happen again! Do you hear me?
Just kidding! Well done! You bring up a lot of good points backed with examples. That's awesome for 2 reasons. 1) The length of space required for clarification and use of examples terrifies new millennials; and 2) It shows me/others why you feel a certain way.
I feel like I've seen a completely different Baker than I saw in 2018. I forget the percentages of our red zone scoring last year vrs that of this year in spite of the issues at kicker in 2018; but we were much better in 2018. Last year, Baker's pre-snap intellect had him getting the ball out quicker and with more accuracy to the extent many of us were posting how good that made the pass pro look. I don't remember seeing a little beer belly on Baker last year either; but he closed the summer with bachelor parties, wedding, honey moon and chugging beers at Tribe games, which ultimately changed how often he has attempted to scoot out of the pocket even when he's had some ideal gimmes to do so at times.
Anyway, here's some things I think that has impacted him:
1. Position Coach Change. The experienced QB Coach he had last year had him on his pre-snap keys and pushed the fundamentals and mechanics more than I've seen this year (ie; throwing during a backward hop). If 1 more person tells him he's the next Brett Favre - I'm gonna hire someone to remind him he needs to be the next Drew Brees (who played bad enough in his 3rd NFL season for SD to draft a QB 1st overall). Believe it or not, hiding the football in playaction is a doable if it becomes a fundamental that gets repeated every day in practice. That said, this era doesn't wait that long so the pre-snap reads, weekly film study, and mechanics are of the utmost importance. I heard Bruce Arians say that taking an avoidable sack in pocket is less forgivable than an INT which is consistent with his "No risk it - no biscuit" mentality. Baker has taken too many of these this year. Arians also said this also has a tendency to lead to QBs fumbling the ball away which we've seen from Baker more than we wanted to.
2. Tight End & Red Zone Dynamics. Last year, DeShaun Watson struggled when injuries depleted his WRs not named D-Hop. There was no TE presence or big time help. This year he has a TE that leads all TEs in scoring while his other TEs are pretty helpful as well. He doesn't have to overwork DHop, which clobbers my Fantasy Football team appropriately named Drink Beer. Also keep in mind, we have a 1st round TE that could X-factor easier coverages on teammates or at least threaten an ability to score more frequently with our TE. Right now, we don't even scare a cub scout troop with our TEs. And not for nothing, what would be so wrong with moving Chubb up closer to QB so we can just wedge/down block these 1 yard gimmes that were turning into 2 yard losses in spite of Chubb ranking 2nd in the NFL for yards after contact (which has prolly decreased in the last few weeks). This shouldn't be nearly as impossible as our offensive coaches have made it. Once we start tapping these 2 dynamics better when Njoku returns, it could invite better play-action IF our QB Coach has Baker sharpen the playaction skills.
3. Record Setting Rookie Season Means Something. The challenge of our GM and coaching staff is this. Understand the importance of chemistry and continuity in this game and why the lack of it has haunted this franchise since 99. Dating all the way back to when Drew Brees took a favored Saints team to face a 7-9 Seahawks team QBed by David Whitehurst in the playoffs. A formula of push the pocket into intimate space of Bree's in a 3 step drop, and you remove the eliteness of Brees while Seattle upset the heavily favored Saints. Guess New Orleans has tried to be strong at since? OG. When Pro Bowl OG Andrus Peat got injured last week the Saints got overwhelmed by a strong push up the middle (coincidentally, I think ATL's HC and DC was the DC for Seattle in that playoff game I alluded to so he remembered how to beat Drew Brees). We sent Zeitler packing and Baker felt the difference in comfort particularly in the short passing game. We also had a dual purpose TE that was very helpful blocking in short yardage that we let go (Fells). While Higgins didn't have big numbers per say, he came up big a lot to extend drives and he hasn't been available much as well as how often Callaway was unavailable to build on last year's chem/continuity. We're still putting strangers out there like Hodge, who impressed me but it's not like auto chem comes easy. Whatever we had going for a QB that took over an 0-16 team that also started out winless and gave Baker a 14-0 deficit the night he got his first game action - something changed drastically for the better and it was the QB position. We won the first game he appeared and it didn't take any of us very long to how quickly, decisively and accurately he got rid of the ball through his rookie setting TD pass season in spite of only 13 starts. look at everything that changed except for Jarvis. Baker has already had 3 different OCs at 23 starts olds. Not good! I thought our 2018 OL coach did a pretty decent job considering the challenge of replacing Joe Thomas at LT and he's gone as well as Zampese. IMO, when you're really showing epic progress, the worst thing you can do is change as much continuity as this FO changed on it's QB who was only 13 starts old heading into 2019. They've removed a lot of the things that helped Baker for a lot of things that haven't helped him very much just yet.
Just a few thoughts....
We sent Zeitler packing and Baker felt the difference in comfort particularly in the short passing game. We also had a dual purpose TE that was very helpful blocking in short yardage that we let go (Fells). While Higgins didn't have big numbers per say, he came up big a lot to extend drives and he hasn't been available much as well as how often Callaway was unavailable to build on last year's chem/continuity. We're still putting strangers out there like Hodge, who impressed me but it's not like auto chem comes easy. Whatever we had going for a QB that took over an 0-16 team that also started out winless and gave Baker a 14-0 deficit the night he got his first game action - something changed drastically for the better and it was the QB position. We won the first game he appeared and it didn't take any of us very long to how quickly, decisively and accurately he got rid of the ball through his rookie setting TD pass season in spite of only 13 starts. look at everything that changed except for Jarvis. Baker has already had 3 different OCs at 23 starts olds. Not good! I thought our 2018 OL coach did a pretty decent job considering the challenge of replacing Joe Thomas at LT and he's gone as well as Zampese. IMO, when you're really showing epic progress, the worst thing you can do is change as much continuity as this FO changed on it's QB who was only 13 starts old heading into 2019. They've removed a lot of the things that helped Baker for a lot of things that haven't very much just yet.
Just a few thoughts....
Great points, the loss of Zeitler has been really understated. The guys at Surviving the Season Podcast were the first to point out that successful teams with shorter QBs like Wilson and Brees have elite guards to maintain the throwing lanes that are crucial to their success. Dorsey created an unnecessary hole by releasing Nassib, trading Ogbah then tried to fix it by trading Zeitler for Vernon who's production is almost identical to those two this season. Don't get me started on Fells and Charles loss this season. Dorsey is increasingly looking like a scout who can find talent but not necessarily build a team. Back to Baker: his last two games have been encouraging and maybe it just took him this long to familiarize himself with the playbook. OBJ is still being wasted this season though. This offense has to catapult itself to top 10 in the last 6 games to have the slightest chance of making the playoffs.
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