2022 Draft Prospects and off-season addition breakdowns.

[TexasAg1969]

@nickers said:

Briskett is trash... Puleeze spare us the bullshit... There's a reason he became available... because no one else wanted him...

Well since we likely will get to see him lead the Browns for at least 6-8 games, it should be interesting to see if tia's analysis is right or if your conclusion is right. The gauntlet has be thrown.??

[tiamat63]

 I know we're all focused on the QB situation and the high(er) profile picks.   But I tend to put my eyes on the trenches first. Especially in pre-season where, as a coach or evaluator,  you aren't focused so much on complexity and high level as you would be focused on fundamentals, intensity, and motor.   Those things tend to lend themselves to identifying then developing your chosen talent.     

 By my count, Perrion had 4 pressures, a pass deflection and force a throw away.   That isn't including the holding call he should have drawn as well.  Let's take a peak at some of the pass rush prowess we've heard about (and I've hinted at)

Per NFLdraftbuzz.com  

• Winfrey doesn’t have a great set of pash rush skills and is primarily a run defender - must improve if he wants to be an all down player in the NFL
• He’s got the physical part of the game down pat but could control blockers with better technique far more often than he does.

Very first snap of his career.

As expected, lined up in that 3-tech role.

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Fires off and wins over the LG pretty much immediately.   The most important bits I've put in yellow

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The leg drive and motor never stopped.   All while maintaining great base and level.   Perrion never extended beyond his stability and balance, and when he got contact, drove the OG back by getting up under his pads/shoulders.   Ideal technique for a 6'4 IDL.

Because of this, there's no room for Lawrence to climb the pocket. So once he's set, if he feels pressure it's either hang in and force a throw, or drop your eyes and attempt to run to space.

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Perrion finishes this play off by driving the guard into Lawrence who forces the ball out early on coverage that is playing heavy at the chains.   Ball even comes out a little errant.

But that was 2nd and 6, still a down you have to respect the running game.  So you don't get the chance to really fire off and scream upfield.    So I ran across this gem a bit later and I realized something after the play was over, this is Woods  specifically moving around his rookie, this rookie, into favorable matchups.

-Occupy your Oline.  Show the 5th over the gap bubble and make that LG account for him if he attacks.  

- Give your edges a wider alignment, force that inline TE to work for his chip, and if they double the 3tech with the RT and RG, then you get your edge rusher in a 1 on 1 with the TE.

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- LB drops

- TE Chips, RT widens to pickup edge after chip

- Togy slants to pick up the center and catches the LG after his eyes look for work now that the LB has bailed

- Gives Pdub a true 1 on 1 with the RG

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More of the same since the word go.

PW wins with all the fundamentals and intensity you want to see from a young IDL

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Ends up absolutely mauling the guard.  Like... this guy never had a shot.   Just like the first snap, Winfrey walks the Guard straight back into the QB.  

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- QB can't escape outside, has no choice but to eat the play.

You don't need anything sexy in the bag to be an effective golfer, provided you master your fundamentals, reads and the clubs you own.  I think that's where a lot of these scouting services get things wrong.    Either that, or they did this write up before the senior bowl.   Because I've found an above average pass rusher from that interior spot.

And while I acknowledge it's the Jags Oline, their starters are average to slightly above.  For any rookie to come in and so clearly win those reps really should speak to his ability at this stage.  Tyler Huntley isn't a bad center and he was abused by PW quite a bit.

Per NFL.com's assessment of Perrion. 

"However, he's frequently late off the ball. A tight lower half and disappointing lateral agility make him a liability against move-blocking schemes. He does, however, have an explosive get-off and heavy hands.

Is that so, NFL.com?    Let's see how those runs go.

Jags try to get heavy with 12 personnel in a Y-Y look.

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A tight YY inside zone with a backside sift.   Not exactly forcing PW to much THAT much laterally, like you're familiar seeing with the Browns outside zone calls.  But for evaluators to be so split saying he's a run defender only, or some to say he's a liability against the run, his play sure tends to show the opposite of both.

While PW might be a bit over-extended here, I spoke about his agility and balance for a guy his size.  The next frame really highlights that.

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Re-balances himself, starts to drop his pad level and use those heavy hands to extend the guard on the zone step away from him.  Not only is he doing that, but like I put in the yellow column, really pay attention to where his eyes are.  He's winning his assignment and looking for more.  He wants to stack, shed and affect the ball carrier.   IDL who do that sort of things consistently get paid.

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Front side B gap is gone.   Frontside gap bubble is being watched like a hawk and Wino does his job of taking on the backside cut without crashing so far down the line that he opens up the bounce back. 

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RB has to cut, almost completely lateral, at a negative depth from the LOS. 3 yards by my count.   When you're having to jump cut and try to hit the backside against an NFL defense, even the average to poor groups will track this down.  Which is exactly what the Browns did.    

But Perrion blowing up that frontside B gap was the snowball that turned this into an avalanche.

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Ok so what would Jacksonville's counter be to a simple inside zone call?  

They ended up going back to that YY set, except having a twins open right.

I will point out, unlike the previous Over calls from coach Woods (3 tech to strength), Togiai would usually play a more 1i look.  Here he's almost heads up on the center, closer to a 0 tech.  Just subtle adjustments.

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Jags responded by throwing a Duo design at Perrion.

For those not familiar, a duo (like I put in yellow) is just throwing a double team at the frontside 3 tech.  It's a pretty staple counter to defenses running these over fronts dating back to the 90's Cowboys.    If you want that 3 tech to bit 295lbs and a pass rushing threat, then offenses are going to test how he handles two bodies thrown at him.  

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Perrion has no choice but to take on and fight like hell to get through this contact.  He isn't built to anchor against doubles like this.  Which isn't a game breaker, because when you so clearly and immediately have to double, you open clear gaps for linebackers to read and attack.   As I pointed out below...      Young JoK got in there immediately, but both Taki and Delpit had clean lanes in their run fits. Even if that Z receiver comes to pick of Taki and seal him inside, If the backside edge holds his ground and doesn't get too far upfield (Looking at you, Wright) then you've cut off the backside bounce.    

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Because of Perrion's fight, the guard can't peel off the double team fast enough to pick off Jacobs, he'd have to go after Delpit and pray Etienne makes someone miss in the hole.  Z receiver is late and Taki still has free feign to attack downhill, although he's a bit late and I'd prefer him to be more aggressive.   

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 Taki takes off and beats the receiver, Jacobs gets in the gap and gets Etienne low.   So you have primary and secondary contact on the RB.    It's a couple yards past the LOS, and yes I'd love for them to trigger downhill faster.  I understand Travis isn't a big RB, and he can make you miss laterally with his quickness.  But he's also a RB coming off a season ending injury, so I'm going to make him beat me first before I just sit more patient and wait for his first cut.

 These duo runs are money for a lot of teams and generally they want more than 3 yards out of them.  But because of the lanes our young IDL keeps clean for our LB's to work freely, you don't get the offensive efficiency you would expect from these designs.

So that's PW taking on an inside zone singled up from a YY look, and him taking on a true double team from that same frontside look as well.  Both results the coaches  I'm sure are more than pleased with

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 I don't like getting ahead of myself.  Getting excited over 1 pre-season game is exactly how you get into the mindset that Brady Quinn was going to be a gem.    But this is different, even given the quality of competition.     You see a defensive coach moving his chess pieces around to his advantage, and Woods has pretty early identified Perrion as one of those pieces.    In that same mold, you see the Jags coaches adjust their calls and how they handle blocks up front, quite early to (1st quarter) in order to keep ahead of the chains, limit the damage from the Browns interior, and gain the yards they expect these plays to do.

 So far, Winfrey has been more than just being limited to the label of "3 tech". He has been a gap-shooting disruptor both upfield and laterally in the passing game AND running game.   You don't see him playing down to his competition or speed, but playing at the level he started with as far back as the Senior Bowl.   I suspect Woods saw that in camp and that's why he saw snaps with the 1's early.      I'm also aware the Browns IDL group isn't particular deep or overwhelming in any sense.       

 He's only going to get better with time, as he showed up Taven Bryan pretty bad when he got the same level of work.    So the coaches are identifying who their cornerstone pieces are early.  Jordan Elliot had his moments, so did Togiai.   But I need to see more from the rest of the group with consistency.  It's up to the front office and Andrew Berry to make sure that this effectiveness isn't offset by having depth and talent issues along the rest of the Dline. 

My biggest take away from all this -  I wouldn't be out on too far of a branch in my belief that Perrion might already be the best IDL we have on roster.... and we're less than a week into his professional career.   I'm thrilled to see what happens when you put him next to Myles and Clowney.

[TexasAg1969]

tia, I'll write down the times these plays run and watch for them on the replay this coming Wed. I thought PW was a steal in this draft where we got him. Pretty sure you felt the same way.

[gumby73]

Excellent insights again Tia ^^^ 

I can remember a P.Winfrey similar framed former Colts player in Denico Autry getting those same bad tags... 

High motored DT D. Autry is now at Tennessee... 113 pro football games later

Total tackles:	233
Sacks:	39.5
Forced fumbles:	3
Fumble recoveries:	3
Pass deflections:	23

[tiamat63]

@gumby73 said:

Excellent insights again Tia ^^^ 

I can remember a P.Winfrey similar framed former Colts player in Denico Autry getting those same bad tags... 

High motored DT D. Autry is now at Tennessee... 113 pro football games later

Total tackles:	233
Sacks:	39.5
Forced fumbles:	3
Fumble recoveries:	3
Pass deflections:	23

Denico is a quality player.  If Perrion ends up even at that level, then it's a great investment for the draft slot we got him in.

[Korsou Dawg]

@tiamat63 said:

   I'm thrilled to see what happens when you put him next to Myles and Clowney.

Thanks for the review. Couldn't agree more with the last sentence! A D-line that strikes fear in the hearts of opposing O-lines and QBs alike would be a treat.

[tiamat63]

For fun, I wanted to check in on Baker and how he looked.   Got some mixed results.   

The good.

Baker on 3rd and 3.  Carolina with 11 personnel in a 3x1.

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Coach Rule dials up a mesh design, with the usual deeper 3rd progression behind it on some type of stab or square in.   The RB runs a bit of a wheel though.    I think it's a nice draw up because the RB can draw and identify both the LB tracking him, and occupy or clear out any flat defender.

The MIKE is in track on the RB, and he gets a bit of a pick from the #1 releasing inside.  So the LB has to work through that contact to pickup his assignment.

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I've got a nickel riding out too much contact and a MIKE backer struggling to get high and outside.  Because if this is CMC then it's a HUGE gain.  Hell, I'd just flip it out to him if it was Mr. White Lightening.    

You'll notice the WILL backer (bottom red) floating in his hook zone though.

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The nickel is following the #2 inside, while the WILL is passing off the crosser moving in front of him to said nickel. So you have confusion of assignment and late communication.    And the only flat defender would have been the MIKE, but he's in man tracking the RB.

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Baker see's it, anticipates the throw and puts it in front of the shallow drag giving his man plenty of chance to maximize that YAC.    Baker also does this while the pocket is starting to collapse, credit him for hanging in there and finding his receiver.     Carolina picks up the first down, 16 yards, and the drive continues.    Good design, good execution, good read.  

The familiar/bad.

Much like the Browns, when you have an offense with a QB who works best off play action, and you want to take your calculated shots, you take them on early downs.    

Carolina still in 11 personnel with a stack to the field.  If you're asking why the window dressing...? Could be for any number of reasons.  Any time you get a stack like this, you force eyes to be a little wider and communication from your DB's to be a little more sharp.   You could get a screen, you could get a rb, you could get some route combos that expose you back inside like a follow route.  There are various benefits to these types of wrinkles when you play teams you think you have a handle on their offense or defensive calls.

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Remember what I said about the relationship to coverage triangles and diagnosing things pre, then post snap?   These sorts of things are no different than Poker.... they're tells.  Not always 100%, that's what post snap confirmation is for.  But this is information any QB has to digest then process in real time, real fast.  

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WSH shows a cover 6 flavor... qtr/qtr half.    So the boundary safety will pickup the #2 to his side if that #2 presses vertical.  Usually past 8-9 yards.     Looks like cover 2 to the field.  

These things are all good and well, but when you're playing you have to overlap what your routes are against the coverage you're facing.   Think like taking pieces of a map that isn't complete, then placing one of the other to form a clear picture... yeah, that.

The field safety in cover 2, he's going to read for anything vertical to his side first and foremost.  If the #1 or #2 to his side fly's by the corner or nickel defender, he has to leverage and deny them deep.

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There's a few moving parts in this next frame.    

One, the route concept is pretty dope, IMHO.   You get deep crossers look, but you reduce the depth of their call to 12-15 yards...ish.   The crossers put so much cheese in front of you that it helps to hold any any middle field safety in a cover 1, cover 3 or this case a cover 6.  The stress will be insane.  What's even more cool is that the crosser from field to boundary is coming from the WR stack, so if there's a bad communication there and the curl flat defender to the boundary is sucked up, that guy is wide open.

And finally you have the corner at the top, high and slightly outside eye.   The crossers really invite those safety's to step down and take them.  So it's great for single shots to the outside.    There's only one caveat to this design against this particular coverage.....the field safety in cover 2.  

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Baker reads the boundary safety, that isn't an issue here.  So he knows he has one on one with Anderson and the boundary corner.  He see's middle field open, and he isn't wrong "perse".   The beginning to this issue I hinted at above is the field safety.  When you're coached as a safety that fast threats to your side aren't going vertical, that almost always means you can expect something backside.  Cover 2, cover 3... doesn't matter.   To quote Ghostbusters, "it's more of a guideline than a rule", but trust me it's a damn good guideline.    

So Bobby McCain (I didn't circle him, my bad) at the bottom playing the 2 high to his side, knows some shit is up.   He peeks all the way back inside, opens his hips and knows he's going to start rolling to close the middle of the field.   Even if something comes back across his way shallow to intermediate, that corner sitting in a flat will get depth and rob it.

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- Baker is waiting for the stab to the outside, and once he reads the break he's launching the ball.

- Robbie makes his move

- Baker doesn't double check for the backside safety.     Jump back to what I said in the frame just above.   Safety's are called the QB of the defense.  So as a QB you have to believe they're also reading what you are.   You have to know their rules and how they operate.  So if you don't have receivers to that side occupying his responsibility, then he's going to look for work.

- McCain opens his hips and is screaming deep to close the middle of the field.  He knows what's coming.   I personally feel he's an underrated DB.  He gets some knocks because he isn't very big, 5'9 190lbs... but Earl Thomas was the same size.

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- Baker gets hit a moment before he releases the ball. As a result he can't quite step into the throw.   I don't think anyone will argue about the strength of his arm though.

- Corner speed cuts to recover, he's high but outside of the WR.  Perfect for being beaten back inside on something like a skinny po.

- McCain has sniffed this backside shot out, hips open and he's tracking the ball.  

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-The ball ends up a yard or two short

- Corner recovers

- McCain recovers and puts a huge hit on Anderson.  

The corner damn near comes down with this INT.

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There's a few things to unpack here.

- I have trouble grading this play in a vacuum.  Mostly because I've watched almost every snap Baker has taken on coaches film the last 4 years.   And this play is oddly familiar to me from start to finish.  Where some see this as a single occurrence, I see this as a point on a graph... dots connecting to establish a direction or pattern.

- Baker didn't find the other safety.  You can't take things like that for granted in the NFL, not against the quality of DB you'll face.  Almost nothing is THAT open at this level.

- While I won't judge Baker too harshly because of the pressure, still have to account for him not identifying and manipulating defenders. 

-The Carolina Oline is going to be a real problem for them.    I also think that means a couple things. Because of Carolina's pass pro, you no have a good deal of route concepts off the board with spotty pass pro.  So you're going to find out just how good or bad of a QB Baker is when he's forced to play as methodical as possible in tight spaces.    Seriously, the guy has enjoyed the luxury of elite pass pro half his career in Cleveland and, at worst, average pass protection the other half. 

For reference in 2021:

Baker was blessed with the 2nd best pass blocking interior line in all of football.    This is a wet dream for every QB.

As a collective, the Browns pass block win rate in 2021 vs the Panthers.

1. Los Angeles Rams, 68%
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 68%
3. Philadelphia Eagles, 67%
4. Cleveland Browns, 67%
5. Green Bay Packers, 66%

.......

29. Carolina Panthers, 50%

 This season more than ever, Baker will have to rely on his football IQ and execution.  He doesn't have the protection in front of him that he's become accustomed to.

 Now I'm sure grading services like PFF will tag Mayfield more favorably from week 1.  Either average or above average in this case for this game. I suspect because their curve involves the pressure affecting that throw.  But like I said... vacuum.   I can't do that because I see, and have seen, the same pattern for 3 & 1/2 years.   I know Baker didn't pickup McCain and if there was no pressure on that throw, I'm not entirely convinced it still doesn't end up as a PBU.

 As of right now, the Browns have an incredibly favorable week 1 matchup.     As of right now....     I say that because what concerns me the most when defensive game planning for the Panthers isn't Robbie Anderson, Baker or DJ Moore.   It's McCaffrey.    If healthy, he will be Bakers best friend, giving him the ability to let his RB read and adjust in space from the backfield on those HBC concepts.  All Baker will have to do is put the ball on him.    You can't let a player with those abilities beat your backers or safeties, pickup the tough yards, move the chains and extend drives.  Because  Carolina sure as hell doesn't have the IOL necessary to exploit the Browns limited IDL talent if they pound the rock, and you can forget about them holding onto the ball and pressing it downfield if their OT play is anything like what I saw this first game.
 

[tiamat63]

@gumby73 said there was a "cat fight" for that 6th corner spot between Herb Miller and Lavert Hill.   Herb did himself no favors this past weekend in winning that fight.

 Anatomy of a play, how the Eagles used one of Stef's favorite early down concepts to their own treat.

1st and 10, neutral side of the field, 21 personnel and catching the Browns in a single high 3 fire look.   

Pre-snap

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Pre-snap defensive check in

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At the snap.  Coverage tells.

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Browns send a 3 fire pressure, Eagles bottle it all up.

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"yankee"  early down, 2 (sometimes 3rd on delay release)  21 personnel, ball action... a calculated deep shot off a high-low read. 

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The failed zone replacement.

-Middle field safety steps down to pick up the deep over, that is the correct read.

- Moffatt flattened his hips too much on the WR stabbing outside to sell that 7 route.  So now he's no longer high on the WR, he's even at best.

- Miller has chased the deep over too far, he's too steep in his pursuit across the field instead of flowing upfield with hips open.

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This high-low read is based off the middle field safety, a "landmark" in distance and DB.   In the frame below, the QB is well into his motion already, so he read this perfectly and was already in his windup when the WR was even with the DB's.

We know the result.

Miller did himself no favors on this.   He chased that deep over too far and then took a poor angle to work cutting off that deepo.   In this case, when the middle field safety steps down to take the deep over route, Miller is now tasked with zone replacement on the middle 1/3.  So he has to climb and climb fast to cutoff anything coming backside.    You might remember me mentioning that DB's are taught, safeties especially, when you aren't getting anything vertical your way, you need to expect something backside.  You can see his eyes in these frames when he understands what's happening and that he isn't in a place to deny it like he needs to be.

What makes it worse is that neither of these corners, Miller or Moffat, are starting NFL athletic for the position.  They're 4.6 runners who lack serious makeup speed.  So once you're beat, you're beat.  There is no coming back from this.   While PFF is correct in their assessment that Moffat is the secondary coverage in this and likely not assigned "blame" or a negative grade, he also has zero business being this low and slow against a 4.3 receiver.    You have to at least put yourself in a position to be able to makeup SOME ground.   And I get that you're playing to the field against a young QB and a young WR, so the threat of that 7 with all the space is real, which is why you stay high and keep expanding outside to the numbers.  At worst you roll your hips that are already naturally going to open against either throw - the post or the flag.    If I'm a coach, Miller is getting the brunt of this, but Moffatt isn't getting away from some chirping as well.

Great call by the Eagles coaching staff, and outstanding execution by their young players.  

[tiamat63]

re: the "arm tackle" on Schwartz.  It's easy to pile on the guy, a lot of it is deserved... but the end around failure to be a bigger gain isn't on him.

I believe it was @sdbacker80 who first mentioned it?

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 I feel bad because this play right here, if it was a big gain, might help ease some pressure off Anthony.  No different than a shooter going cold or a hitter in a slump.   Find a play, find a gain, next thing you know you're in the flow of things and you're seeing the game again.  

 This isn't on Schwartz, it was a GREAT call and a sweet design.  #89 just failed to seal this corner who WAY over-pursued inside.    You really want to give Schwartz a full head of steam and let him round this out, not have to sharply cut back upfield, especially inside the numbers.   Build the alley and let him speed round his way outside the numbers.  Force that safety to take the correct angle to the ball and tackle in space.

I'm with you guys on some of the Schwartz critique, but this play I just can't follow you on.  It wasn't on his shoulders and this is the correct type of way the coaches can get his type of speed the ball and make it effective.  The rest of the blocking has to execute correctly in order for it to work.

[tiamat63]

@texasag1969

So I was able to go through the late 1st half and 2nd half drives by Mond.    At first I was taken back by him missing on a couple of the easier throws.  There was a deep over to the far left hash against a 3fire coverage that was coming wide open and Mond just flat out didn't see it and instead went after a very risky throw deep down the boundary.

The odd part was, it was in 21 personnel and with a strong ball action fake on favorable downs and distances.  It was a flavor of a yankee concept, except the boundary receiver broke his route of from running the post.   Either way, it was an easy and clean read from the additional body on the pressure giving Kellen more space to throw the intermediate stuff.   

Another one from a single back against a cover 2 pressure where he failed to pickup the flat defender (corner) and throw off him once he identified the safety's depth and leverage.   Read corner - throw corner.  That was again, off a ball action fake from under center.

Filed both of those away for later.

Here's the 1st (bad) throw in a quick summary.

And that single high sitting on the boundary safety, to the weakside of the formation is a gift.  Because if he doesn't leave that lane, you're throwing off his leverage.  

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So that right there looks like shit.  It's a simple read and throw. Even if you see the MFS stay flat footed, he's still high and sitting outside the middle hashes.  Mond had zero reason to leave this deep over. 

Came across a few simple throws from empty where he would read and replace the MIKE backer, as he should do, for easy completions and gains.  While I say easy, it was something a 1st round pick in Trey Lance failed to execute when I watched him in the pre-season last year.  So in terms of relative rookie development, I'd value Mond ahead of Lance as a passer when you compare that sort of '101' type knowledge.  

Then came things I didn't expect.    Raiders showed a quarters pre-snap on a 2nd and 7, then rolled into another 3fire pressure from the field side nickel.   Kellen came off the read from the pressure side, looks like he understood the 3 deep, came all the way back to his right to his boundary X and TE running a hitch-dig combo.   He's starting his throwing motion well before the receiver clears the shoulder of the MIKE backer expanding in his hook zone and puts a great anticipatory throw to the dig, outside of the backer, before the DB's and at 12 yards.   

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This is a great read and a great throw.   While the pocket acumen needs cleaned up just a bit, at no point did I see Kellen bail from clean protection and/or show much in the way of happy feet.  He's calm and collected working from behind his line.   Shoulder direction and throwing motion also need a small tweak, but his technique isn't so poor that it would wildly effect his accuracy

Then it sort of hit me, I don't think Kellen is accustomed to and comfortable running ball action from under center.  Because his back is going to be turned to the line, so now he has to plant, get his head around and identify his landmarks + process a lot of information fast.    I'm not saying he can't, I'm saying it isn't something he's good with. Mostly because of the offensive styles that dominate the CFB landscape not asking their QB's to do that.

Which is sort of in reverse for a lot of QB's we see come out the past few years,  who lack a lot of ability to show even a basic understanding of what is unfolding in front of them.  Then delivering with poise, timing and anticipation.

Granted, it's only 2 halves of ball, but I was pleasantly surprised when I saw Kellen get time to work in the pocket and drive the ball downfield.  He certainly didn't look completely out of place like Matt Corral and Malik Willis have shown this preseason.  Both of them top 75 picks.

I still have 2 games to go, but I've seen enough that would make me want to continue watching him to try and understand more about the Vikes decision.  And given how fast the Browns snatched him up, I'm sure they saw a bit of what I'm talking about right now.

[TexasAg1969]

Fisher liked him because of the fact that little rattled him and he maintained the same demeanor regardless of the pressure. He also had the legs to take off on the planned QB draws and naked bootlegs. Under Fishes he became a more accurate passer than when he arrived as a freshman. Also became better at reading the defense with quick looks to the different receivers with scanning left to right or right to left as each play called for one direction or the other. He also got better at looking off DBs before going to the receiver quickly. Rarely got happy feet other than intentional climbing the pocket. He'd throw away the ball before taking the hit if no one got open. Anyway I'm glad we have him. Totally even keeled QB no matter the situation.

[Flugel]

@tiamat63 said:

2/2

 For all the smoke coming from former OU players about Alex Grinch, there appears to be a great deal of fire to match.   And, while I won't claim to be in their heads, I think I fully understand what our coaching staff saw with Perrion, how to warranted a further look and how they saw a coach fail to utilize his best defenders best ability, then to wrap it all up by not building your defense around it.

When Grinch went away from his slants and stunts, the OU front 7, namely PW, were pretty damn effective getting into gaps and changing rushing lanes.   Basically when he got the hell out of his own way, what I ended up seeing was a player who could have more easily conserved play calling resources and snaps for his coach had he let him off the chain more frequently.

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Another quasi double-eagle look.

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In the zone to, PW's job is to not let this lineman cross his face and get picked up by backside zone step.  That's how huge creases for Nick Chubb are opened.    I tossed in some other assignments for perspective on the edge.

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Perrion wins past and through the gap and starts moving into the backfield.

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PW clearly wins his assignment and is what forces the RB to take his first cut at negative depth and having zero lateral or forward speed.

 

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These were brief flashes I saw playing within the structure at OU, despite it not always been beneficial structure for PW's talents.   I honestly believe he was incredibly overlooked by most front offices until the senior bowl.   And credit to the Browns coaches and staff for identifying this guy then going back on the film.  But I know exactly when they saw something from said senior bowl during the individual drills.

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I'm too lazy to look it up and I won't ask Woody, but I'm pretty sure that's Stuber from *ichigan at RG.

Solid player, nothing spectacular. Will likely kick in at full time guard if he starts in the NFL.  But he'll make an NFL final roster I'm sure.   Anywho.

Great balance and control from our RG, square arms ready to make his initial punch at PW.  You can tell this kid has put in some time at OT.    But PW gets to show 1 on 1 fundamentals he didn't display in the 3 games I watched at OU.  First being, his hands are up, active and ready to work.

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Stuber may land the initial punch and extension, but PW has a great counter swipe from left to right en route.  Good weight distribution and Winfrey's not launching himself into his blocker.  He's actively working to win the gap instead of occupying the man.

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It's fundamental and needs work, but it's a punch and pull.  Perrion needs to be a bit better at "knifing" his right arm back through which will naturally square his shoulders and upper body once he has shed a blockers hands. 

Try it yourself sitting down, turn your shoulders right, then take your right hand across your chest in a 'stab' motion. Naturally starts to square out your shoulders. 

 

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Not completely getting his shoulders square here hurts your balance a bit, and Stuber rides out contact.   But it does display the agility and control this big man has.   Also highlights great knee bend for someone 6'4 295lbs.

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PW regains his full balance and shows some bend and dip around the corner in this drill.   Can't stress it enough, all while dealing with contact redirecting him the whole time, this is good balance, agility, control and strength.   It isn't perfect, but it's a foundation to greater things.

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Last group of stills and something I never saw from him at OU.

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This is where Winfrey might make the most noticeable impact his first year.  Interior pass rush.

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Fires to the guards outside shoulder and gets him attack his right shoulder and chest with his left arm.   It isn't much, but if you're a guard you really don't want to lose any ability to control your own inside shoulder.

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PW feels the gaurd being high on his outside shoulder and uses that momentum to roll back to his inside off of the contact balance.  

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It isn't the cleanest footwork, won't fool anyone thinking it's Dwight Freeney.  But it's pretty damn good too.  Not often you see that light footwork from an IDL.   I know I have some reviews of Neil Ferrall trying and failing pretty hard.  Granted Ferrall is 30lbs heavier, have to distinguish between the position groups.   But it's still a big man showing great balance and lateral agility.    Biggest drawback to his move here that needs the most work,  PW should have extended out his right arm away from him "fanned out" and used it sort of like Kobe when he would go to clear space for shooting.       That way the guard can't do what he's about to do....

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..... Latch on to your right shoulder and try to rip himself (or you) back into contact.     Not always easy to draw a flag from this moment right here.  But that arm usage is the difference between a player letting the guard fighting for his life and Aaron Donald ending his career early.

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It was still damn good and unexpected.  I know, because I saw it, and Perrion's drill mates plus position coaches saw it.    You can see the helmet slaps and then his position coach telling him exactly what I'm typing now - that right arm was all that saved the guard from having a fighters chance at not letting his QB get killed.

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When I see someone claim a player, position group or side of the ball is being held back by coaching staff, I always make sure to double check my homework before I even think about agreeing.    I've seen a lot of lazy players and excuses.

It's something casually tossed out that VERY few offer any real evidence or conclusions on., especially with QB's. The Baker saga here is evidence of that alone.

But the more I watched the more I saw the prototypical NFL 3-tech with Winfrey.   Quick, powerful, violent, shades of technical, and a great motor.     And the more I watched, the more I understood the growing frustration from the OU defensive players as well.   Your coaching staff held you back from being a functional and possible above average unit, aside from putting the damper on individual play which helps lead to bigger NFL paydays.      

But I now see exactly the glimpses this front office did.  I get it, I get this selection.     Does Perrion solve our IDL issues?  No.   We still have another spot and some depth next to him that needs answering.    But I'm more than willing to say that this is Berry's first value pick attempt at delivering a long term solution along the IDL instead of the recent trend of bringing in 1 year stop-gaps.   I'm excited about this pick, you should be excited about this pick.   And I can't wait to see what the early results and word in camp is, I'd bet the phrase "real deal" gets tossed around a few times.

The biggest challenge I see with Winfrey in many of the pictures you've shown and on some occasions in the preseason is getting that pad height down at the snap a little more consistently.  Being stronger than your opponent means nothing in the trenches if you forfeit your legs/base to him with a crappy pad height out of stance.  This gets worse, not better as guys tire.  Good news is this can be corrected.

If they had any Okie Drills early on in camp where he faced Teller or Bitonio - a bad pad height would be a summer school session he'll never forget.

[tiamat63]

@flugel said:

The biggest challenge I see with Winfrey in many of the pictures you've shown and on some occasions in the preseason is getting that pad height down at the snap a little more consistently.  Being stronger than your opponent means nothing in the trenches if you forfeit your legs/base to him with a crappy pad height out of stance.  This gets worse, not better as guys tire.  Good news is this can be corrected.

If they had any Okie Drills early on in camp where he faced Teller or Bitonio - a bad pad height would be a summer school session he'll never forget.

Pad height also plays into conditioning.  And you won't find any better trainers and programs on planet Earth than what you can when you're in the NFL.   Given that OU's defensive coaches were less than ideal, I'm willing to get PW sometime.  Like you said, it can be corrected with time, condition and coaching.

[tiamat63]

@texasag1969  You're not getting any screenshots with this post.

 But I'm on game 2 for Kellen vs San Fran.  He started rough, real rough, out of the gate.  But he's battled back in the late 2nd half, hanging in and making some pretty decent throws.  Mentally speaking, he looks ahead of rookie and 2nd year QB's I've seen that are still on rosters with their respective teams.    

 I still love how collected Mond is in the pocket.  Good, tight footwork moving in condensed space, his pocket climb is so-so, but when he does go to run he seems to identify the correct lane to escape, be it laterally or vertically.  

Of course, as I type this, Kellen forces a really nasty pass downfield into double coverage vs, what looks like, the Niners sitting in quarters to the boundary. 

I can understand a bit of frustration from the coaching staff, he has been handed a couple gimmies with these chips and underneath releases against cleared out coverages for cheap and easy gains but hasn't taken not-a-one.  

Still, he isn't so unpolished a product that I would feel comfortable moving on from just yet.  Especially given his short time in the league compared to Sean Mannion.

I suppose Mullens is a touch of an upgrade at the moment, and the Vikes felt he might be a better long term #2.  But like I said in my previous post, the kid doesn't look so terribly out of place that he doesn't belong either.   There are hints at the mental makeup along with some of the quality measurements Kellen has.

edit:  Same drive, against another quarters look, puts the ball to the far outside hash before the curl/flat defender can expand and get underneath of the ball.   Good read, but the ball was high and wide... just a poor throw.

I'm on the fence with this one.  I wouldn't lament losing Kellen off my team, but whoever you're bringing in would have to be a clear upgrade for me.

edit:  I didn't watch that QB room video, I think symp? Posted about Kellen.   Anything similar in there to what I found?

[tiamat63]

Shameless self bump.  But we'll be in TBB discord, watching the Clemson - Ga Tech game on this rainy Labor Day and probably going over a bit more film from the NFL.

https://discord.gg/RRW4pgpK  All are welcome.

[tiamat63]

Coaches film is up, working on CAR's offense now.

All drives 1st qtr drives....

3 step drops to open and close, trying to take advantage of Woods' early down single high calls.  Opened Pass, run, Pass.   Several RPO builds to get the ball out quick and stress the defense horizontally. Corners sat REALLY aggressive on those.  A couple screens, including a mirrored type of concept and the designed swing out to CMC.    Baker has dropped 2 snaps from the gun that were pretty clean.  

7 Step drop on a misdirection screen to CMC,  bootleg that was pressured by Bryan.    Any type of 1st down throw that connect was followed up with the interior run.  The idea is to pickup that 1st down, move the chains and get your offense in rhythm.  I can't remember where the stat line was, but the expected point percentage per drive went up like 3x for any offense that achieved a first down on their drives first series. 

3rd series, Bakers physical limitations in the pocket started to show themselves.   He did a great job hanging tight on a 5 step drop on 1st and 10, coming off his primary, to his secondary and then his 3rd target,  tries to fire to the outside and loses his footing getting his shoulders around.    Also possible Alex Wright (his 2nd snap, by my count) got a pressure on this.   But Baker, as we've seen, can't really step up and launch because he loses sight of his throwing lanes when he isn't playing with exaggerated pocket depth.     

Credit Baker for trying to hang tough.  Credit Alex Wright for registering a pressure on this pass rush snap.  He actually used his hands for extension quite well, but still lowered his head a bit.     

Side note, about this play.  It's a nice foreshadowing to the long bomb on the miscommunication by Emerson and Delpit later.  Because DJ Moore was running a speed dig from the X, looks like quarters to the field.  When Moore broke positive, Emerson went to turn him over to Delpit because the #2 to that side stayed in on a chip then delay.   Delpit went back to double the #1 when there was no #2 fast threat (Moore) and got WAY too high on the receiver.    I see why and where the Panthers coaches filed that away for later.   Delpit is only starting his 2nd healthy season, and he's on the same side of the field as a rookie CB.  Good coaching dialing up concepts that force them to communicate and "think".  Also, I know they're from LSU so the comparison is natural, but GAWD DAMN... I can't help but see a bit of Jamal Adams when I watch Delpit.    

Baker starting to get locked onto reads pre snap.  Missed CMC flat twice now for big gains.  Defense is starting to take the ball possibly going by them for granted.  Because they're picking up their assignments in man and zone, but getting eyes back onto Baker a bit too fast and for a bit too long.   Then again, these are the sort of things I pointed out were happening as early as the 2020 Ravens game, then the big one was the Pats game last season.

Baker Misses CMC on a HB choice 1st down the very next drive.  And it was there too for a cheap 5-6 yards.   So far, Mcadoo has stayed aggressive, coming out and throwing on 1st downs and shooting for controlled passes that would get him in a shooters rhythm.    I was wrong, CMC might not be Bakers best friend.  Because the way to control MC from hurting your defense also happens to be the same way you play Baker - heavy zone looks with variable drop depths and leverages. 

McAdo still firing away on 1st down.   Next drive, comes out with a sort of yankee concept.  Baker does a good job not bombing away an INT, but Danzel shuts down DJ Moore as the 2nd option.  Pass rush gets home.   Hey! He finally got CMC the ball flat against a cover 2!   

The bust for the big gain to the TE early.   It looks like Delpit is looking for his call from Johnny J.   Some problems here though... the boundary corner is in man.  Denzel gets on the field late and covers the far #2, so that leaves Delpit and Young Jok between the #2 (TE) and CMC from the backfield.    I see Delpit expand in a hook/curl, like he's expecting safety help to that hash.   But the problem with cover 3 vs a 2x2 set is just that, you're weak right down the seams.  If this was Match 3, then Delpit would be picking up the #2 past a 8-9 yard vertical.   So I think, when you toss in the bad communication between him and Emerson earlier and later, that Delpit isn't getting his mind right where it needs to be.   There are things that need cleaned up on the defense, and the biggest one is understanding primary and secondary coverage assignments.    The fundamental stuff needs to be polished, because CAR isn't doing anything fancy here.  

Baker, per the usual, was getting his eyes to a boundary throw and was really fortunate with this.  For some reason he didn't even bother eyeing up the late arriving DB, which would naturally gravitate to being a communication issue alone right there.     It's just a college level bust, at the NFL level.   Not to take anything away from Baker, but Brady Quinn could have done this.   It's like getting birdie on a par 4, but you took a mulligan.  Sorry, but you don't get credit for gimmies.

Here's the recap on 1 half of Panthers football from the offense.

5 drives - 20 yards of total offense and 1 INT

1 drive - 8 plays for 75 yards of offense and 1 TD.   In that drive, you had 1 play for 50 yards and 7 plays for 25 yards.

That's Johnny Manziel levels of efficiency.  

What I've learned from the 1st half with Carolina so far....

- Nothing.

Not to toot my own horn here, but they called the game almost exactly like I said.   Lots of early down short drops, the screen game, trying to attack the perimeter and protect Baker.  Only 5 and 7 step drops on ball action and the screen game.    The Panthers Oline might be the worst in the NFL, somehow they've gotten worse than last year.   As a result, their offensive coaching staff is handcuffed because you have a piss poor OL, and a QB who needs the extra time to be reliably effective.    Only 2 downfield connections - 1 for 16 yards on a 7 man protection, and the other on a busted coverage with a cheap throw.  That's all they could get because it's all they could earn.  The Browns Dline won just about every snap.  

EDIT: removed this part...

- Woods is getting creative with his pass rush looks.  Especially given the redundancy in our safety roles.   Neither Delpit or Johnny J are great center fielders.  But both aren't terrible either.   They do great work with a bunch of other assignments and in the box.   For those complaining about a lack of aggressiveness, I think @sdbacker80, probably Nickers, and @dutch-oven, there was even a call where he kicked Myles inside, dropped Alex Wright and Anthony Walker over the TE and got a sack sending Johnny J off the weakside edge matched with some tight man coverage from our corners.   I saw a great blend of restraint, understanding that the front 4 didn't need much help, and a "fuck it, send it" because our corners were up to the task.  

The defense was a busted communication away from a 1st half shut out.   Clean that up, execute and you blank your opponent for a full half.   I like that this defense has something to hang it's hat on which can be improved with time, coaching and practice.

[tiamat63]

Re: The coverage busts that lead to TD's.   

The first one to the TE.

- Delpit is waiting for the Call in from Johnny J.   

- Denzel is running onto the field late, JJ3 gives him his tag and it looks like it's a match call over the #2

- Boundary corner is locked up in man.  

- Neither Delpit or JOK carry the #2 (TE) up the seam, so he just sits wide open.  

- Delpit expands in a hook/curl like he's playing a 3 zone.   Which is a rare call for a 2x2 set.  Because those seam throws put any single high safety in such a bind, you almost can't win.  

- Likely a giant miscommunication between JJ3 and Delpit.  Grant should have been the one to carry that TE down the seam, like in a match 3.  If the #2, especially to the boundary, stems vertical, the safety picks him up downfield.  

*****

TD to Robbie Anderson

- Looks like quarters. 

- Denzel matches his #1 to the boundary

- Delpit is staring down the lane playing a "clue" between the backside and the frontside #2 & #3.   If the #3 doesn't press vertical, he reads for a vertical #2 and continues to float to the strongside hash. 

- JJ3 picks up the frontside #2 in man at 10 yards and drives on the cut.  That's what you do in a qtr/qtr.   At a certain point you have to declare your coverage and your man.  You could have checked the #1 and fallen off late to the #2, almost like a 2 trap.  But it's rare and risky that you'll see defenses have that sort of switch past a magic number... which is usually 8ish yards.    

- Newsie freezes his feet like He's expecting JJ3 to pick up the #1 going vertical on the post...  which means he would be falling off to....? absolutely nobody. 

Probably going to put this 2nd bust on Newsome.  Everybody else appears to be playing their role correctly except him.  

I'll have screen shots and route diagrams for you guys tomorrow.  

[SdBacker80]

Currently watching in disbelief as the Hawks O coordinator is putting the game in Geno’s hands 
 

No Beef with Joe.  I thought this opener was a belt high fastball and he put it in the bleachers.  

A couple comments:

-First, thank you for the series by series breakdown of what I thought was a poor performance from Baker.  I’m sick and tired of the excuses. 

-The John Johnson disguised pressure was a thing of beauty.  I definitely didn’t criticize Joes lack of aggressiveness this game.  But If Joe goes all Mike Glennon 2020 gameplan and let’s Joe Flacco sit in a pocket I might have a problem…then again I think we can win with four next week. 

-I thought Delpit was peeking in the backfield on the long TD…he’s gotta have better situational awareness and know Baker has to put it up and take some shots downfield.

[tiamat63]

@sdbacker80 said:

-First, thank you for the series by series breakdown of what I thought was a poor performance from Baker.  I’m sick and tired of the excuses. 

Oh, believe me, he missed some gems....

2 of the 3 on the same drive for, what would have been, touchdowns.

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Apart from the 2 busted coverages, it was a brutal day for both Baker and the CAR Oline.   And barring major weekly improvement or a trade of personnel, it isn't going to be getting any better for them anytime soon.

[tiamat63]

Alright, so let's tackle this one play a post.

Pre-snap highlights some of the communication issues this secondary had on the day.

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Browns get a nickel on the field WAY late.

- I swear, Delpit is pointing back expecting either JJ3 or Denzel to be behind him down the row.   Not sure why it would be Denzel.  In any late sub or situation like this, I'm putting ANY DB who wants on the field over the #2 and telling him MEG.  At this point, you're almost too late to make any real call behind that and pointing.

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Johnny J gives Denzel his marching orders.    But he backs up and leverages himself between the field hash and the numbers. Almost like he's playing split field quarters.

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Here are some of the odd parts on this communication breakdown.

- Boundary corner is playing man

- Field CB's are playing qtr/qtr.   So if the #2 stems vertical, Denzel picks him up.     JJ is playing like he's read matching 2 to 1, except his leverage is ALL wrong if he wants to do that.  No way would he be able to recover and help on the #1 to his side that close to the hash.     Looks more like he's playing a  "clue" that you see vs trips.  If your 2/3 don't push vertical, you look for something backside...

- Delpit and JoK are more than content to hit in a hook and curl flat zone

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- Denzel picks up the #2 vertical.  

- JJ3 eyes backside and goes "oh shit, there's nobody home".

- Delpit is still expanding curl/flat like this is some type of cover 3.  In multiple cover 3 calls, you work curl TO flat... that's how it's coached.   In this case, the corner would still continue in his deep 1/3, but like, what some call "country" cover 3, the CB would then read the #2 vertical and would "bend" in to the numbers to deny a seam throw.  For the life of me I remember either Jeff Okudah or Damon Arnette running this type of defense and getting a PBU with it.  I tried to find it on Youtube, but I just can't.  Maybe another time? 

Edit: found a match 3 diagram of what I'm referring to. 

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This is the end result where Baker gets a freebie.

A few things about this play.

- Regardless of the coverage called, it's a bust because of communication.

- There are forms of 2 read, mostly notable with coach Patterson and TCU, that play like match quarters, but also have a functioning "Robber" around where JJ3 was leveraging himself.   But that couldn't account for the lack of numbers to the passing strength. So this becomes a bit of trial and error on who was playing what.     I'm sure, whatever call both JJ3 and Delpit thought they had, they ran it correctly.  The problem is, they're running two different calls.   Letting a #2 run upfield like that screams some form of expecting safety help.   And given how often cover 6 is called with the 1/2  safety to the field, I think that's what Delpit believed he was playing. 

- There's just too much miscommunication here.    In certain forms of cover 3, the weakside safety matches the #2 vertical while the strong safety and corresponding LB or DB (speaking in terms of passing numbers strength vs not) walls off the numbers side #2 and carries him vertical.    It's the single high counter to 4 verticals.    There are some calls like that at the pro level to, one made popular by Coach Carroll in Seattle called "soft sky"  (Cover 3 sky, "soft" tagging how the #2 is played vertically) 

 I ACTUALLY found that play, to give you an example of what I'm talking about here.   In cover 3, this type of 4 verticals look means these seam throws are open.  But this check the Seahawks run means, that curl/flat defender McDougal would have been, now means he carries that #2 seam upfield.   Cam Newton was baited hard into throwing this pick.  Starts at the 45 second mark.

  There's also the possibility, given how aggressive the boundary corner is, that Delpit was expecting some type of roll safety behind this CB sitting cloud?     I'm not entirely sure which call was blown here, because there are several to choose from.  So I'm actually scratching my head a bit and wondering where Woods' head would have been and building from there.  The cover 3 match makes more sense, IMHO.      JJ3 wears the call helmet for the secondary, so he's the leader.  If there is a communication failure, while yes it is player specific, as the defacto leader, it also reflects on you.  Your guys HAVE to be all on the same page, or dumb shit like this happens.

- Either way, for game 1 against a questionable Panthers team, there were far too many defensive breakdowns for my liking.  And they all stemmed from miscommunication between the safeties themselves, and to their respective corners.