...⚾...Bieber agree $13.125 MILLION... 1/ yr contract ! ◆ The GUARDIANS NOT rebuilding ! ◆ [ NYY ? ]
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~ January 11, 2024 -
The GUARDIANS NOT rebuilding ! Bieber agree on $13.125 MILLION one year contract !
◆ Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration
By Steve Adams | January 11, 2024 at 11:49am CDT
The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a ● $13.125M salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes ● additional incentives based on ◆ Cy Young voting, a potential ◆ All-Star appearance and ◆ postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his FINAL SEASON of a club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2M salary.
︎ Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than SIX innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.
Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.
Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.
■ The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over.
■ Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the
︎ FUTURE rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.
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~ And in other related news from the NY Yankee$ world.
Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, ◆ Shane Bieber
By Mark Polishuk | January 7, 2024 at 4:11pm CDT. ( ◆ EARLIER JAN. 7 ◆)
Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo. In addition, ◆ the Yankees have also checked in the ◆ Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.
◆ These two pitchers represent the wide range of options ◆ the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help. Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter. ◆ Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency. Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.
Because ◆ Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control. The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff. There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched ◆ only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.
As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset. Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a ◆ Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.
Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo. The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates. ●--> CONTINUED ●-> ◆ so who won ? ◆ CLE or NYY ?
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It's going to be interesting to see what type of contract he gets after this season.
His advanced stats have been trending down, I have a feeling he might end up more affordable than you would have thought a few years ago.
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It's going to be interesting to see what type of contract he gets after this season.
His advanced stats have been trending down, I have a feeling he might end up more affordable than you would have thought a few years ago.
It's going to be interesting to see what type of contract he gets after this season.
His advanced stats have been trending down, I have a feeling he might end up more affordable than you would have thought a few years ago.
It's going to be interesting to see what kind of season he HAS this year too. Good year he will be a rich young man. In any event he will be okay.
I hope he makes a run at the Cy Young .... but we'll see.
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