Trevor Hoffman

[Kosar_For_President]

What is up with this guy? He throws like a 80 mph fastball and still gets 30 plus saves every year. Comes out this year with a 1.83 ERA and 37 saves? He's 41 and he's lights out. A real anomaly.

[Beanpot]

There was a thread earlier in the year about this when we were one of the teams discussing Hoffman. This isn't the thread where there was detailed discussion (couldn't find it), but it gives an idea of the opinion at the time:

http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=569

Essentially, Hoffman throws one of the single most effective pitches the game has seen in the last quarter century. The fact that it's a change-up was cause for some angst in the above thread but it's clear he's been able to continue to use it effectively as he's aged. Many people felt, reasonably so, that it wouldn't remain a solid pitch as the velocity of his fastball dropped. But he was still throwing it ~74% of the time and getting terrific results. While the velocity on his fastball hasn't dropped much over the last few years (85.8 in 2003, 85.5 in 2009), he's not throwing it nearly as much and instead setting up the change with a slider that averages 81ish on the gun.

Here are a few descriptions of Hoffman's off-speed goodness:

A few years ago, San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman didn't like discussing his signature pitch. He thought it might give hitters an advantage. Then baseball's career saves leader realized: It doesn't matter how much he talks about it. Hitters still can't hit it.

"I've faced him twice, and I have yet to put the ball in play," Brewers slugger Prince Fielder said. "As soon as it comes out of his hand, it looks like it's hanging, so you feel like you're going to crush it. . . . Then it's not there anymore."

Hoffman's velocity has decreased, but he has tinkered enough with his change to make sure it remains one of baseball's standout pitches.

"It's pretty Bugs Bunny-ish," Diamondbacks infielder Chad Tracy said. "Same arm speed, same plane as his fastball. . . . It's almost like he has a string attached to it and he pulls it back before it gets to you."

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbac...ypitch0330.html

The mother of all off-speed pitches, the changeup is delivered with the same throwing motion as a fastball, but because of the pitcher’s grip on the ball, it’s slower in getting to the plate. When a batter misses a changeup, it’s because he’s fooled into swinging too early. Closer Trevor Hoffman has thrown a tricky changeup throughout his career, and though his fastball rarely hits 90 mph these days, his changeup is still effective. Hoffman throws the pitch by palming the ball, rather than relying on his fingers, and has struck out more than 1,000 batters.

http://www.askmen.com/top_10/sports/top-10...-pitches_8.html

And here's some data on his pitch selection this past season:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

Beanpot

[ballpeen]

He has learned tp pitch.

He can probably bring it a little better than that, but to talk baseball lingo, if you can bring it in 8 inches quicker one time and 8 inches slower another, hitters are going to have to guess right to hit it on the meat.

Hitters are pretty good at adjusting...they can hit 120 if that is what you bring it.

More baseball talk here...10 inches of break side to side isn't as good as 5 inches front to back.

Keep hitters late or on the front foot and you can win, and you can do that with fairly pedestrian speed.

Whitey Ford couldn't throw 85, and he won for years. In modern terms if you don't know Whitey Ford....think Tom Glavine or Greg Maddox. Neither was a hard thrower, but they mastered the art of bringing in 6 inches faster or 6 inches slower...and 6 inches for a batter is a BIG deal.

[Beanpot]

@ballpeen said:

Keep hitters late or on the front foot and you can win, and you can do that with fairly pedestrian speed.

So very true, Russ, and welcome back! Hope you had a good trip north. You at least saw a competitive game, bud.

While I think Hoffman has known how to pitch for quite some time, his pitchfx charts show that are some subtle (and some not so subtle) differences in the horizontal and vertical movement of his pitches.

In particular, here are two graphs showing both movements over the past three years:

Beanpot

[CIMO.]

I finally started diving into the sabermetric world this year, and there's some very interesting stuff, big fan of the site FanGraphs. But I kind of don't even want to understand that pitch FX business....

[Beanpot]

Yeah, I'm with ya. I enjoy the look at how often someone throws a certain pitch and the success rate of that kinda thing, but the in-depth stuff makes my head swim. There are some things that are glaring when looking at a guy year-to-year, but a lot of it is noise.

Beanpot

[Beanpot]

BTW, tread easy in that sabermetric world. There are a bunch of terrific people in that end of the pool but there are also more than a few dicks who are going to dunk your head underwater if you don't believe their words are gospel.

Beanpot

AnotherBTW - double play - are you SERIOUS!!!

yeah, that'll make no sense to anyone who reads this down the road

[Beanpot]

Ohhhhhh, what a game! Epic. Listening to the Twins feed with TBS muted. Jesus, what a play at the plate.

Beanpot

[SoCalBrownsFan]

Hoffman has a nasty changeup, which makes the batters corkscrew themselves into the ground.

[Kosar_For_President]

Cool thanks for the info. Didn't know that about him. Imagine if he threw in the mid 90's too. I saw him pitch a couple games last year and I was like "I could hit this fool". Yea right, I guess I'm full of shit.

[ballpeen]

@beanpot said:

So very true, Russ, and welcome back! Hope you had a good trip north. You at least saw a competitive game, bud.

While I think Hoffman has known how to pitch for quite some time, his pitchfx charts show that are some subtle (and some not so subtle) differences in the horizontal and vertical movement of his pitches.

In particular, here are two graphs showing both movements over the past three years:

Beanpot

Wow...i don't know what to say about that stuff...looks like the art you could make at the country fair where you squirted different paints on a spinning board.

I guess I am just a old timer...don't throw to the level or spot twice in a row and don't bring it in at the same speed twice in a row.

Make them guess height, in or out, and speed on every pitch.....unless you are that rare guy like Feller, Kofax, or Ryan and could just stick it in their face and say "Here it is, now hit it".

If you beat them on 1 of 3, you have a chance, 2 of 3 and you can win big time, 3 of 3.....you dominate.

[Beanpot]

@ballpeen said:

Wow...i don't know what to say about that stuff...looks like the art you could make at the country fair where you squirted different paints on a spinning board.

I guess I am just a old timer...don't throw to the level or spot twice in a row and don't bring it in at the same speed twice in a row.

Old-timer my ass, those charts show exactly what you're talking about - velocity and location. Same exact thing you've taught for ages, just kinda glorified with some fancy pixellation. What you speak continues to be the truth and these are just representations of that truth.

BTW, I don't know if you're an old-timer or not, but you know the hell out of the sport regardless of any label.

Beanpot

[ballpeen]

Thanks....give me a link to those charts..I am not sure what I am looking at.

Is 0 some baseline...like right down the middle and say at the belt??

Does the negative number reflect low or in??

On the pitch selection...what is 'in" and "fc"

[Beanpot]

Here's a general link to Hoffman's page on fangraphs. Play around with the tabs below his name (graphs, advanced, pitch type and the like) to see all of the stuff they monitor. They're pretty in-depth, bud. Think you'll like it. Also be sure to check out the blog link, really interesting stuff being discussed on a daily basis:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

Beanpot