Lee a Mariner, Halladay A Phillie Wow
-
Great post John. Not that I'm bitter or anything, but here's hoping all three of those now-Phillies prospects flame out. And Viva Carrasco.
I'm not a big Keith Law fan, but here's his take (also pretty satisfying as a Tribe fan)
The Seattle Mariners: They made the biggest gain in this series of transactions by landing Cliff Lee. They're giving up two of their top pitching prospects in Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez, but there's a good chance both end up in the bullpen; Aumont is already there after hip problems and some makeup questions (he broke his non-throwing hand by punching a locker in August).
He gets great life on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and should get plenty of ground balls as he learns to command the pitch better; unlike a lot of low-slot right-handers, he hasn't shown a pronounced platoon split against left-handed hitters. Ramirez has electric stuff but hasn't missed a lot of bats in full-season ball and his ultra-skinny build has raised long-term durability questions -- although, unlike Aumont, he continues to start and should remain there until he proves he can't handle it. Tyson Gillies is among the fastest men in baseball and has a decent approach at the plate, but guys with below-average power often find their ability to work the count compromised by higher-level pitchers who realize they can challenge those hitters in the zone with some impunity, and unless he becomes a plus-plus defender in the outfield he's going to end up a fourth outfielder.
So, it's a large price to pay for one year of Lee because they're giving up so many years of control of three almost-certain big leaguers -- but trading second-tier prospects for one impact big leaguer is nearly always a good value because of the benefit of having so much major-league value occupying just one roster spot. Seattle sees an opportunity for 2010 with the Angels losing John Lackey and Chone Figgins, and while the losses do deplete Seattle's system, the Mariners are not barren (they still have Dustin Ackley and Alex Liddi) and making a legitimate run at a division title is a pretty good reason to empty out your farm.
The Philadelphia Phillies: They swap one ace for a very slightly better ace in Roy Halladay, whose value over Lee may be as much in his stronger track record as in pitching ability. The price they pay for this small improvement is a major dent in their farm system, trading a superior package of prospects to Toronto for the three players they landed from Seattle in the exchange for Lee. I'm not sure why the Phillies -- who were the favorites to win the NL East in 2010 before this move -- were motivated to make the trade; yes, they can sign Halladay to an extension and couldn't sign Lee, but that's independent of the deals used to obtain one pitcher and trade the other. They might be half a win better in 2010, a whole win at most, but deleted a lot of value from what was a solid farm system before they made the moves.
-
Without Question Cimo the Mariners are the clear winners in this deal
giving up a couple of prospects not named Morrow or Saunders
They should be dancing in the streets of Seattle over this one
And Even if they don't sign Lee thy should be able to get Type A Comp for him
Starbucks for Everybody
Too bad the Phillies opted to give Jamie Moyer 8 mil for this year
It probably cost them a year of Halladay, Lee and Hamels
-
Great post John. Not that I'm bitter or anything, but here's hoping all three of those now-Phillies prospects flame out. And Viva Carrasco.
I'm not a big Keith Law fan, but here's his take (also pretty satisfying as a Tribe fan)
The Seattle Mariners: They made the biggest gain in this series of transactions by landing Cliff Lee. They're giving up two of their top pitching prospects in Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez, but there's a good chance both end up in the bullpen; Aumont is already there after hip problems and some makeup questions (he broke his non-throwing hand by punching a locker in August).
He gets great life on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and should get plenty of ground balls as he learns to command the pitch better; unlike a lot of low-slot right-handers, he hasn't shown a pronounced platoon split against left-handed hitters. Ramirez has electric stuff but hasn't missed a lot of bats in full-season ball and his ultra-skinny build has raised long-term durability questions -- although, unlike Aumont, he continues to start and should remain there until he proves he can't handle it. Tyson Gillies is among the fastest men in baseball and has a decent approach at the plate, but guys with below-average power often find their ability to work the count compromised by higher-level pitchers who realize they can challenge those hitters in the zone with some impunity, and unless he becomes a plus-plus defender in the outfield he's going to end up a fourth outfielder.
So, it's a large price to pay for one year of Lee because they're giving up so many years of control of three almost-certain big leaguers -- but trading second-tier prospects for one impact big leaguer is nearly always a good value because of the benefit of having so much major-league value occupying just one roster spot. Seattle sees an opportunity for 2010 with the Angels losing John Lackey and Chone Figgins, and while the losses do deplete Seattle's system, the Mariners are not barren (they still have Dustin Ackley and Alex Liddi) and making a legitimate run at a division title is a pretty good reason to empty out your farm.
The Philadelphia Phillies: They swap one ace for a very slightly better ace in Roy Halladay, whose value over Lee may be as much in his stronger track record as in pitching ability. The price they pay for this small improvement is a major dent in their farm system, trading a superior package of prospects to Toronto for the three players they landed from Seattle in the exchange for Lee. I'm not sure why the Phillies -- who were the favorites to win the NL East in 2010 before this move -- were motivated to make the trade; yes, they can sign Halladay to an extension and couldn't sign Lee, but that's independent of the deals used to obtain one pitcher and trade the other. They might be half a win better in 2010, a whole win at most, but deleted a lot of value from what was a solid farm system before they made the moves.
I'm not a big Keith Law fan, but here's his take (also pretty satisfying as a Tribe fan)
Curious why you feel this way, CIMO.
What don't you like about Law? His tone or his opinions? I think the guy comes across as over-the-top arrogant but I most often tend to agree with his opinions and have come to trust his evaluations of prospects. He's kind of Will Carroll with smarts and credibility.
And what do you find satisfying about this deal as a Tribe fan? Not arguing you shouldn't feel that way, just looking for any and all reasons to feel satisfied about Toronto securing "more impact talent than Cleveland and Philadelphia received in total in the two Cliff Lee deals" in this deal. They're winners in this thing too, given the fact Halladay was going to be moved, even if their entire fan-base isn't going to feel that way for a long time.
Sooo....help me feel sat-is-fied!
Beanpot
-
For Keith Law....I can't really put my finger on it. He's always the first national guy I turn to about prospects, but he doesn't seem too....I don't know, solid. It seems like the only projections he has are 4th outfielder/6th starter/etc or impact player. He obviously knows what he's talking about, I guess I just don't like his opinions.
As for the satisfaction....it's just how I'm conditioned these days. "Satisfying" as in "thank god the Phillies didn't embarrass us." I didn't really care about the Blue Jays....even if they're the "winners" of the whole thing, I'll still take Shapiro's overall track record on trades (LaPorta was a top-25 guy last year and Santana should be top-5 this year, not even counting Choo and Droob and Sizemore... we'll see how the Jays' new guys do). Just glad the Phillies themselves didn't rub our faces in it.
-
For Keith Law....I can't really put my finger on it. He's always the first national guy I turn to about prospects, but he doesn't seem too....I don't know, solid. It seems like the only projections he has are 4th outfielder/6th starter/etc or impact player. He obviously knows what he's talking about, I guess I just don't like his opinions.
As for the satisfaction....it's just how I'm conditioned these days. "Satisfying" as in "thank god the Phillies didn't embarrass us." I didn't really care about the Blue Jays....even if they're the "winners" of the whole thing, I'll still take Shapiro's overall track record on trades (LaPorta was a top-25 guy last year and Santana should be top-5 this year, not even counting Choo and Droob and Sizemore... we'll see how the Jays' new guys do). Just glad the Phillies themselves didn't rub our faces in it.
As for the satisfaction....it's just how I'm conditioned these days.
Hey, I'll buy that.
BTW, here's Castro's mailbag from a couple days ago if anyone missed it:
12/14/09 6:48 PM EST
Inbox: Does Acta favor a stable lineup?
MLB.com's Castrovince answers Tribe fans' questions
By Anthony Castrovince / MLB.com
While covering the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis, I walked into the Westin workout room and found superagent Scott Boras doing situps.
Man, this guy is as good as advertised. I asked him to give me a spot on a bench press of 130 pounds, and he negotiated me up to 160.
The Tribe was quiet last week, but the Inbox questions kept coming. Let's see what was on your minds.
I'm not too familiar with Manny Acta. Does he set a lineup and let it go, or does he experiment like Eric Wedge did on a daily basis? Wedge was too enamored with the super-utility players.
-- Michael F., Galloway, Ohio
All managers have to work with what they've got. Acta is inheriting a club that, after much trial and error, is pretty much set at shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera), third base (Jhonny Peralta), left field (Michael Brantley), center field (Grady Sizemore) and right field (Shin-Soo Choo).
Behind the plate, Lou Marson projects as the regular, with Wyatt Toregas backing him up. The only question at first base is Matt LaPorta's health. At second base, Luis Valbuena will likely be protected against left-handed pitchers. And Travis Hafner should be physically capable of playing on more of an everyday basis.
So, with all that said, the lineups of 2010 have a chance to be more static than the lineups of '09, and it's certainly Acta's intent to see that through.
Wedge didn't have a set lineup at all last season, and that's in part a function of what he was given to work with and in part a function of what became an obsession with versatility. It was clear in Spring Training last year that the Indians would have a lot of moving parts in their lineup, but Wedge also made some strange decisions, most notably by having Ryan Garko play the outfield on occasion.
Has Acta given any indication on where he thinks Sizemore fits in the lineup?
-- Kevin H., Westminster, Md.
Unless something drastic changes, Sizemore will be leading off in Acta's Opening Day lineup. Brantley really sparked the top of the lineup after his September promotion to the big leagues, reaching base safely in 25 of 28 games, stealing a few bags and coming up with some big hits. He gave the Indians every reason to believe he can one day fill that leadoff role full-time, perhaps by the end of the 2010 season.
But for now, with Brantley likely to go through some inevitable rookie-year adjustments, Acta feels it's best to put him in a low-pressure spot at the outset.
Any speculation on who we're going to get for Kelly Shoppach?
-- Kevin K., Independence, Ohio
Though the Indians won't confirm who they have to choose from on or before the Dec. 20 deadline, I'm hearing it will be one of two right-handed pitchers -- Mitch Talbot or Joseph Cruz.
Talbot is 26 and made his Major League debut with the Rays in '08, making three appearances and posting an 11.17 ERA. Shoulder and elbow problems limited him to 15 total starts in the Minors this past season, including 10 at Triple-A Durham. He finished off the year by making six starts in the Arizona Fall League.
Cruz is 21 and spent '09 at Class A Bowling Green, where he went 5-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 21 starts, striking out 99 and walking 26 in 98 innings of work.
Did the Indians have to cover all of Jake Westbrook's contract for his injury-plagued '08 and '09 seasons? I remember hearing something about the Tribe having insurance policies on their high-investment players.
-- Nathan H., Stevensville, Ontario
Without giving specifics, Mark Shapiro told me the Indians received "meaningful" relief from Westbrook's 2009 contract, but obviously not enough to significantly adjust the Tribe's economic picture. If Westbrook is unable to go at the start of '10, more financial relief would be in order.
Who is going to play first base? I hope it's not Andy Marte. We need someone with power.
-- Ken M., Spring Lake, Mich.
Well, it could be Marte, if LaPorta isn't ready for the start of the regular season. Or perhaps, in that scenario, the Indians would give reigning International League batting champ Jordan Brown his first opportunity in the big leagues.
By and large, though, the expectation is that LaPorta will be the Tribe's regular at first. In the last two months of '09, Marte didn't exactly convince the Indians he's ready for an everyday opportunity at this level. He remains out of Minor League options and will have to make the team out of Spring Training camp, or else be exposed to the waiver wire again.
For the record, Marte is currently nursing a strained oblique, so he's not active in the Dominican Winter League.
I think the Indians passed on a rare coaching gem in Torey Lovullo and they are probably going to regret letting him go the Red Sox. I don't think they ever got a chance to go as deep into the interview process as they wanted to. Did the Tribe jump the gun sooner than they wanted to because of Acta's Houston candidacy?
-- Lisa F., Ashtabula, Ohio
While the Houston situation did speed up the Indians' timetable on making this hire, the odds were already stacked against Lovullo. From the beginning of the interview process, it was pretty well-established within the front office that an outside perspective was needed, so an in-house candidate like Lovullo was not expected to get the position.
To Lovullo's credit, however, he did impress the Indians enough during his phone interview to be granted an in-person interview in Cleveland. And when Lovullo was passed over not just for the managing gig but also a position on Acta's staff, the writing was on the wall for him to leave.
Acta said he was impressed with Lovullo when he interviewed him for a coaching spot. But the job Lovullo would have been best-suited for -- third-base and infield coach -- was the only one filled by a guy with no previous career ties to the Tribe, Steve Smith. Lovullo certainly has the skills to be a Major League manager someday.
Could you print quotes from Shapiro or Paul Dolan in which, after the trades of Lee and Martinez, one of them said they could have kept both of them but that would have meant they would go into the offseason with no ability to add any players? This would seem to imply that since they traded them both and saved a lot of money, they would be able to be active and add pitching. Would they care to explain?
-- Steve, Wooster, Ohio
It appears you've misinterpreted the implications of those trades. The Indians made them not to free up payroll for the construction of the 2010 club, but to use their most valuable trade commodities to bring in a haul of prospects for the future and, in the process, save money to offset the financial losses brought on by dismal attendance figures. The Indians felt they could have kept Lee and Martinez and paid their 2010 contracts, but they would have lost both in free agency at season's end and had glaring holes in their farm system.
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/arti...sp&c_id=cle
Beanpot
-
And also as I keep thinking about this (still not caring about the Halladay part) the satisfaction keeps creeping in.
Just from a Tribe-Phils perspective
Tribe gives up a year and a half of Lee and a 4th outfielder.
Tribe gets two potentially good starters with years of club control, a solid catcher, and a solid middle infielder.
Phillies give up ^ that, and a full year of Lee.
Phillies get a (great) half-season of Lee, two relievers and a decent outfielder.
Things to keep in mind
- We got what's probably a better haul than what the Phillies got (prospect-wise) when we traded DeRosa (Perez, Todd).
- Marson is a young, cheap catcher with some good upside. Pudge and Jason Kendall just signed big deals. Teams need catchers.
- Supposedly the reason the Phillies had to trade Lee was because he wants "Yankee money," which he obviously wasn't going to get from Dolan, for all the people who kept talking up the fact that he wanted to negotiate at the start of last year.
- What a deal for Seattle.
I'm admittedly a pretty unabashed Shapiro fan. But to me...the "bad moves" he makes just aren't that bad. And the good moves are pretty fantastic. I still can't find a way to justify the Pronk/Wood deals, but that's another topic for another day.
-
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. -
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
agreed. how's wes hodge's development coming along?
once a fan, always a fan. married to a steeler fan. aaaaaaaaah! --andy -
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
-
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
agreed. how's wes hodge's development coming along?
agreed. how's wes hodge's development coming along?
To be honest, I don't know. I will have to call his dad and get the scoop.
-
I myself am getting tired of Marte. Living in Braves country it seems I have been hearing how good he is for half my life.
For me, either he lives up and gets it done or we just release the guy and let him be some other teams super prospect for the next 5 years.
agreed. how's wes hodge's development coming along?
agreed. how's wes hodge's development coming along?
Not as well as Lonnie Chisenhall's, I reckon.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login