http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php
This is a neat tool to use for 4th down calls. Cool site too.
Of course its not perfect, but it creates a good baseline to make decisions. It has Browns 50% to win by going for it and 53% to win on either kick decision. Obviously, you need to factor in conditions like it being tough to make a FG there. But it looks like punt is ok there according to these numbers.
Of course you don't try that 54 yard FG. You miss it, and the squeelers
have a great chance to move a bit and get their own FG.
It's the first game, and the Browns weren't ready for primetime until the second half.
Wait til the next few games when they really get it right.
My hunch is the correct play is to go for it on 4th and 7 from the 35.
The Cleveland Browns got the best cornerback in the draft, a 2015 1st round pick and then got the franchise quarterback everyone pegged them for at the 4th pick.
Perfectly sums it up
^^^^^^^^^ QB fanboys are crying lol........ I wonder who predicted that?? Oh yea, me lmao
Not crying too much cuz they traded down and got extra 1st next year. Taking non-QB at #4 feels like bad strategy. Especially when you have no QB. But...
QB quality > quantity
non-QB quantity > quality
Also, looking like they could get the QB they wanted at #26 anyways. If they want one.
1. Bridgewater - If they cant get him at 4 then I am ok trading down (taking best DPA) for an extra 1st next year.
2. Best defensive player available
3. Best defensive player available
I am surprised so many want a WR and RB. Since we all love to look at SB winners, I looked at the RBs from those teams over the last 10 years and I am not seeing much. Lynch may be the best RB on a SB winner in a long time and he is nice, not great. Even the WR cores are just ok.
It makes sense if you think about this way. I doubt anybody would disagree QB is the most important position by a ton. I think most would also agree that defense is just about as important as offense. Going a step further, no defensive position impacts a defense the way QB impacts an offense. Essentially, I am saying a good S, or CB, or ILB helps a defense close to equally. Whereas a good QB helps an offense more than an OG, or WR, etc. And since O and D are both equally important, it goes to say ILB, S, CB, etc are slightly more important than WR, RB, etc.
Many like to refer to the Seattle model and this is exactly how they did it! They are really good at QB and defense. And overall mediocre at the other 10 offensive positions.
Also, I am not looking at Bridgewater to a savior, or the next Rodgers (tho itd be nice), or whatever. He just needs be like 12-16th best QB in the league good to justify the pick. And I think he has a pretty high floor.
You know what I hate the thought of? The Browns addressing their QB problem the same way they have for the last 10 years. Ironically, the same way many of you are advocating.
XxDaBuckeyexX said:
Not upgrading at QB will set us back as much as missing on a guy at 4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pretty much this.
I mean, this team tried the opposite with Tim Couch......got the cherry, but then the sundae bowl was just filled with mud and gravel underneath. So what good was a cherry.
I hear ya there. Like the one stinking year I DIDNT want the Browns to take a QB top 10 is the year they did!
Yes. It means you are wrong.
This looks like a textbook example of cherry picking.
Consider this list of names:
• Andrew Luck (#1, 2012, Indianapolis).
• Robert Griffin III (# 2, 2012, Washington).
• Ryan Tannehill (# 8, 2012, Miami).
• Cam Newton (#1, 2011, Carolina).
• Jake Locker (#8, 2011, Tennessee).
• Blaine Gabbert (#10, 2011, Jacksonville).
• Sam Bradford (#1, 2010, St. Louis).
• Matt Stafford (#1, 2009, Detroit).
• Mark Sanchez (#5, 2009, Jets).
• Matt Ryan (#3, 2008, Atlanta).
This is a list of the the quarterbacks among the top 10 picks in the last six drafts.
I made the list covering six years, because no quarterback was in the top 10 in 2013.
What's the point?
OK, answer this question: How many of those quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl?
That's right -- None.
Here are 10 quarterbacks -- all top 10 draft picks since 2008 -- and not one has reached a Super Bowl. Granted, some have just entered the league in the last few years. But it's still revealing that none instantly turned around a franchise.
He is pointing to a specific stat - 0 SB appearances from top 10 picks in the last six drafts. Then comes to that idiotic conclusion in the bold.
Per wiki - I helped by adding the stuff in () and italics.
Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data (SB appearances) that seem to confirm a particular position (watch out taking those risky top 10 QBs!!!), while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data (like other measures to indicate the franchise instantly turned around, e.i. wins, playoff appearances etc) that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias. [1] Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally.
If you still think I am wrong, its cool. Figured I owed an explanation after those short posts. You are getting the last word if you want. I wont reply again.
Peace
Of course he uses facts. I did not argue otherwise. I said he was cherry picking. Do you understand what that means?
I like Pluto but that was a hack job. A lot of cherry picking going on.
The Browns have had the worst group of Qbs for 10+ years.
QB is the most important position in football by a mile.
Bad teams tend to draft in the top 10 of an NFL draft.
This logic seems to dictate the Browns must have taken many QBs with top 10 picks in the last 10+ years.
"What's that?" They haven't? How is that possible. How stupid could they be?
Nah, they aren't dumb. That is the best strategy. Just keep waiting. You cant risk missing the next Joe Thomas. He could carry them to a 5 win season!!!
Just fill all 21 holes on an NFL team. That's how its done. Just look at NE, Den, NO, etc. That's how they do it! 
Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Brady Quinn, Kellen Clemmens, Aaron Rodgers, Big Rape, whatever. I will roll the dice on one of these guys. Who gives a crap if you cost yourself the next Joe Thomas.
And if they whiff on a QB this year? Keep taking one until you get it right.
pghbigkev said:
Funny, but your description of Steelers fans sounds allot like how I would describe OSU fans.
As far as the cheap shots, this is where you and your fanbase is very hypocritical. If a Browns player laid out a Steelers player in the same manner that you describe above, their would be orgasms on this very board for years. Don't be a hypocrite.
First wrong assumption, I am not an OSU fan. Also, college sports and pro sports are waaaay different. Prolonged dominance in college is much easier to sustain than in a salary cap pro league. Its not even close and mindless comparison you made. OSU is much more likely to be excellent for the next few decades than any NFL team.
Second wrong assumption, how do you know I hypocritical? I dont like those hits either way. I didn't realize you were sitting in my living room when I cringe on a tj ward hit.
Gaf,
Why do I hate the Steelers, but do not hate the Colts, Patriots, Broncos, etc.? I mean its all envy right?
First, I think some has to do with the lack of humility in the fan base. They will attribute their winning ways to the 'genius' well ran franchise. And you know what? Of course they are well ran. Yet, they are completely oblivious to the variance and luck that goes into having a winning team (yes, even for decades). Are the Colts brilliantly ran? The Pats are getting 15 years of great play because of hitting a QB in the sixth round. I'm sure you know that Bradshaw was won on a coin flip. You guys aren't saying 'we got 6' if you lose that coin flip. The Steelers have won 52% of their NFL games. The Browns 51% (54% if you include AAFC, but I know that gets Steeler fans panties on fire so I left it out). What are the percentages going to be for the next 50 years? Probably something close to 50%.
Second, it seems like no team in the league head hunts and cheap shots quite like the Steelers. Throw in the hypocrisy of a 'class act' organization and there you have it. I do not like the Steelers.
yeah and tell me an athlete on the road who doesn't cheat? lawrence taylor used to send hookers up to the opposing lineman's hotel rooms the night before the game.
jim brown's domestic probs were all on him and 'accused' does not mean guilty. just ask our upcoming heisman trophy winner. when files were charged and he was found guilty he deserved to be arrested.
but how much do you and i know about what gets swept under the rug (florida state) by police officials who know and like the celebrity?
so the greatest RB in history who stands up for his fellow man of color who has had nothing but a stellar record once removed from said HOE decides to quote bible verses, should not be heard from again?
shameful.
cuz kobe has never stood up for anything. period.
except when he was at a press conference to reconcile with his wife on national tv (who was sportin a 20 karat new diamond ring) and declare his innocence (hehehehe) from a rape charge that his attornies made go away with some payment, or to declare his despise of playing with shaq cuz he couldn't ball hog.
kobe IS black enough. he just isn't made fromthe same cloth as those who's footsteps he pretends to walk in.
fuck kobe. spineless bitch.
even with his off the field probs (which was minimal compared to a lot of athletes nowadays) jim brown did more for african americans back in the day than anyone in history in the united states. though he couldn't save everyone (richard pryor) he did his best because of his presence and the fact that he was the best RB in history.
i'll love him just because of that alone, and then of course that he played for the browns.
unfortunately time has past him by. but what he speaks of is from his heart and he (amongst other black people) expect more from the money-grabbing black athletes of today.
sure a lot of those athletes today have charities and other 'right-offs' that help people, but no one stood up more to the then one-sided gov't who wouldn't let a black man eat in the same section as a white man than people like jim brown, jackie robinson and dr. king.
he still lives in his past, which might not sit right with a lot of people today.
I was wrong the other day. You guys are right. Mik is awesome. Well said sir.
Yards per play is possibly the most important stat. Browns are #2 there as stated earlier. However, they are 23rd ranked on football outsiders which is odd since FO uses ypp. However, they weight the ypp. A 2 yd gain has value on 3rd and 1 rather than 1st and 10.
Advancednlfstats has them at 12 itl. Seems about right. Improved, but not great yet.
Ok, flush the nerd out. Eye test time. They actually seem kinda vanilla with their schemes. I don't think there are a ton of weaknesses tho. Maybe another CB and an ILB to add in the offseason.
if that's what you are good at maybe you can teach me some of that wisdom.
facts, figures and streaks don't mean poo poo to me, cuz we haven't seen 9 and 7 in how long? yet we have a foundation of solid players on both lines (exceot OL tot he right) and yet with every genious coach and regime change we barely touch the .500 mark.
is it coaching (yes) is it an owner that won't drop the hammer when needed to be, or is the over-hyped draft picks and FA we sign that don't do suadoosh?
Because their QBs have all sucked. And really, just unlucky. They restart the franchise a year earlier and get Manning instead of Couch its likely all sunshines and rainbows. Plus, we are all less cranky.
Everybody here knows QB is most important. I think I disagree with most by HOW much its most important.
Big change from when I was a kid. Couldn't the Bears, Skins, Giants, etc start anybody at QB and win 10 games back in the day? Its kinda a shame. Damn rule changes.
The team that ticks me off the most (aside from steelers) is the Colts. They have a trash roster and a goofball owner, yet they are in the middle of enjoying about 30 years of playoff appearances because they got Manning and Luck.
Well I tried to put you on ignore but computer crapped on me. Glad I didnt. I get you a little more now after that post. You don't have to agree with me. I come from a way diifferent view point when it comes to any sport or game. Its a pure mathematical/game theory approach. Its what I am good at. Hell, its how I make a living.
Peace fellow Browns fan.
