@beefjerky said:
Well, I usually bet every 2-3 weeks(sometimes just doing it twice in a row if there's a game I'm very confident about) and have came out winning more than losing every single year I've done it, although in the first year I was just above break even, and with enough variance, that can happen any year in theory. I normally make my picks Monday or Tuesday, after seeing an injury report, because the initial lines are almost always better than the ones you get later in the week.
This year I'm not doing it because I'm strict on not betting if I feel there's even a chance I can't afford to lose(which everyone should do the same, just for fun, excitement and supplemental unreliable income at worst), and I also don't bet below $80-$100(unless its just a friendly bet), because there's no point.
I will update the thread on which picks I got right and which picks I got wrong. I decided to write this out because I'm stuck at the airport right now and am pretty bored.
anyway I like the following picks for this Sunday*disclaimer I'm not responsible if you're bad at managing your money, nor do I expect anyone to go off of my word, the NFL is very unpredictable a lot of the times, never bet more than you can afford to lose*:
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Bucs +3 Bucs to cover(loss by less than 3 or win outright, PUSH if within a FG)
@Min -3
Covered. Bucs were down 0-17 at half, came back to win 24-20. Mcnabb played much better, Peterson had a big game, but they folded and the Bucs were clutch.
Donovan McNabb looks totally out of sync, just had a game reminiscent of Derek Anderson @ Buffalo a few years ago, except McNabb played on a clear sunny day in San Diego and Anderson was in a snowstorm in Buffalo(which the Browns won). Bucs are a young solid competitive team which lost to a team quite similar to them last week(Lions, who I picked over the Bucs), they also have a great CB in Aqib Talib, so that makes it even less likely for Donovan to get any rhythm going. If not for Adrian Peterson, the line would be +8 Min, but keep in mind lines are designed in a way where betting on either side looks attractive(so sportsbooks and bookies can get close to 50-50 on each bet, collecting vig, profitting), not necessarily how many points it'll be apart.
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@BUF -3 Bills to cover(win by more than 3, PUSH if within a FG)
Push at 38-35 Bills. Although the Bills were down 3-21 at half, the Raiders lost pretty much how I thought they would, making too many mistakes and being too inconsistent. Fitzpatrick was clutch in the 4th with dwindling time converting a 4th and 3(or 2, I don't remember), and a 4th and 1 to pass a game winning TD.
Bills are an underrated team who have been held back by Trent Edwards and instability at coaching, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually a solid QB and they have weapons all over.
They have a pro bowl safety Jairus Byrd(made all-pro in 2009), and an average/slightly below average defense. The Raiders are also not as bad as everyone thinks(McFadden is a beast, average defense, best kicker in the world, lacking WRs), but I don't expect them to be able to win on the road at Buffalo, they also make too many mistakes, and are too inconsistent(sound familiar?).
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Browns -2 Browns to cover(win by more than 2, PUSH if within 2 somehow)
@IND +2
Covered 27-19 Browns. Pretty much by the reasoning I put. Although the Bears are probably the team with the worst Oline at this point.
I very reluctantly would make this bet because the Browns lost in a very weird fashion(they just love to find ways to lose games don't they?), they have a new punter which we'll assume won't be shanking punts (25 yards average by McGee , gave the Bengals free points), and we'll assume a Colts snap doesn't happen during a defensive huddle. The Browns D actually played rather well besides that huge blunder(they were shutting down Benson and Haden was playing at an all-pro level against AJ Green until that happened). As a side note, I think Bruce Gradkowski(who played once for the Browns at one point) is an underrated QB who is better than Dalton at this point, so that just makes you what if? What if Dalton didn't get injured would have they have still won? would have he enough awareness to quick snap? Doesn't matter, Browns blew it, and deserved to lose for that reason.
The Colts have probably the worst offensive line in football, very likely will finish bottom 3 in overall defense, don't have Peyton Manning(although Collins deserves more credit, he was at the helm for a 13-3 and 11-5 Titans team recently, not even Peyton could play under the Oline he played last Sunday, but he's just not comparable obviously). They might possibly be the worst team in football by the end of the year.
All of this just indicates it becoming a solid bet, and well, if you lost this bet, then at least you'd know to avoid betting Browns games like the plague for the rest of the year, there was more to judge the Colts being a bad team than there was to judge the Browns being a bad team in week 1(The Colts were bad in every phase of the game and didn't just make 1 or 2 big mistakes, nearly every snap they were dominated). I normally did, they are very unpredictable, they beat Super bowl champs and lose to chumps(I actually bet on them the year after the Giants won the superbowl, the MNF game had a very favorable spread, that was my last time betting on a Browns game, quit while ahead you know?
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MNF
Rams +6
@NYG -6 Giants to cover (win by more than 6, PUSH if within 2 FGs)
Covered 28-16 Giants. Pretty much by the reasoning I put, although the Rams would have possibly been closer if not for two blunders, but then the Giants offense would have been different later on in the game. Easy pick.
Giants just lost away to an underrated Redskins team(who I picked over the Giants last week, although I broke even on the pick em league 7-7, most of those games I wouldn't have bet on anyway heh), they might be on a down year due to all the starters they lost on offense(steve smith, nyg, boss, a few others), but maybe the players in their place might step up. Justin Tuck and Osi out as well. But they're still solid enough to score points and their defense is still above average, Rams just lost pretty handily to the Eagles at home after Steven Jackson got injured, their defense is below average, Steven Jackson will be limited or may not even play at all. Giants shouldn't have much of a problem. I'd be a bit wary if Hakeem Nicks doesn't play though.
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Jags -10.5 Jags to cover(lose by less than 10 or win by any)
@NYJ +10.5
Wrong. Jets 32-3. Jags were no where near losing by less than 10. "unless the Jets completely blow out the Jags", well, they did. Got this one quite wrong, and in hindsight there wasn't enough to judge the Jags yet to involve betting yet(hypothetical or not), but it was on my judgment of the Jets.
This just seems like a great value bet, unless the Jets completely blow out the Jags, I find it hard to believe the Jags won't be within by at least 10. Say what you want about Luke McCown(who was also with the Browns at one point), but the Jags play as much mistake-free football as possible, and have an above average defense. Not to mention they have MJD. Offensively the Jets were very overrated last week when playing the Cowboys, they looked very lackluster up until the Cowboys somehow managed to lose both their starting CBs to injury; a situation which almost every QB in the league would flourish in.
*note the Vegas line has been reduced to -9 Jets 9 Jags
3-1 with picks with 1 push(3-1-1 if you wanna list the push), lost on the side bets 1-2 but those were just on the side anyway. Colt had 211 yards surprisingly, o/u was 216.5, Ray rice was under as I underestimated the Titans D, Peyton did indeed score a TD which was an easy pick. Picks to avoid were correct to avoid as well since both of them pretty much ended on coinflips(push on DAl/SF).
@the-gipper said:
I understand it almost happened. He got whacked in the knee, but I think a brace he was wearing prevented a serious injury. Not that it matters. BR has never been the real key to that team's success.
Yeah when he came down I thought he was going to be out for at least half the year, I've never been a fan of Roflsberger for numerous reasons, but he's a tough big guy who seems like he'll almost never be down due to injury.