@hoorta said:

Yeah- BUT. 

2) The Bills can (probably would, maybe already have- contingent on the qb they want is there at #2) deal directly with the Giants and offer #12, #22, one of their seconds, and their first round pick next year. Way more plausible...   

No, you're right, but if the Giants want Barkley but also want some capital for it, they could make this happen if Cleveland is willing. Think about this, and I know it's a lot of assumptions ...

1.1: Browns - Sam Darnold, QB USC
1.2: Bills - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
1.3: Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma
1.4: Giants - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State
1.5: Browns - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

That's something that COULD happen, IF the Browns decided to play the part in this 3 way trade with the Bills and Giants.

Buffalo sends #12, #22, #53 and a 2019 #1 to Giants for #2
Giants send #12, #22 and #53 to Cleveland for #4
Cleveland sends #12 and #53 to Denver for #5

Giants get their "guy" in Saquan at #4 and add a 2019 1st
Browns get their "guy" in Chubb and get #22 out of it. Or shoot, if Denver holds them hostage for #5, you give up #12 and #22 to go to #5 and still add #53

I guess that's a lot of chaos and things to fall into place. Maybe the Browns do it and are happy turning #4 into #12, #22 and #53. Or maybe they do it after having a talk with Denver and saying "if this trade goes down, we'll do this trade with you"

If there were a draft for all this to go down, this might be the one.

Considering this year fully introduced the new "trade mid-round picks for pro-bowl veterans" strategy ... maybe this is the first draft of the "multiple team trade" where everyone gets what they want at the expense of a desperate team. In this case, Buffalo is the desperate team, giving up #12 ... #22 ... #53 and a 2019 1st.
Browns get their guy Chubb at #5 and add #53 for dropping 1 spot
Giants get their guy Barkley at #4 and add a 2019 1st for dropping 2 spots
Broncos get #12 and #22 where they can replenish depth for #5

Been playing around with scenarios for the "3 team trade" and I actually wonder if it's in place as 2 separate trades on draft day, with an understanding that the Bills get their guy at #2.

*Trade 1: Buffalo sends 1.12, 1.22, 3.1 and a 2019 1st to Giants for #2
*Trade 2: Giants send 1.12, 1.22 to Cleveland for #4

Giants get: #4, #65 and a 2019 1st
Cleveland gets: #12 and #22
Buffalo gets #2

In theory, Buffalo gets their guy with assurances that it's not who the Browns take at #1 (Cleveland says hey we are taking X, and Buffalo says great, we want Y, we make this deal contingent on you taking X on draft day). The Giants get to stick in the Top 4 and get the Top non-QB (presumably Barkley or Chubb, but I'm leaning Barkley) ... the Browns get their QB and also get picks at 12 and 22 which puts them in a good position to hit BPA at positions of need (I'm thinking a combination of OT/CB/FS/DL.

I just put together a mock draft with Browns going Darnold, then taking McGlinchey at 12 and Hurst at 22 ... and would leave their Day 2 picks for depth at LB, CB and even add Michel or Chubb if they want to still add to the RBs.

@hoorta said:

I see where you got that- but the results are still the same...   The #12 and both the Bills second round picks don't get it done, not even close...  

#1 = 1,000
#4 = 490

#2 = 717
#12 = 346

Swapping 1/4 for 2/12 is -427 n pick value, which is roughly equivalent to pick #7.

But if you add up the values of #51, 53 and 65 ... you get 296 back ... so now you're -131 with the trade

I used the value for pick #33 to represent a 2019 1st round pick value for Buffalo ... which is worth 180 ... bringing the trade to a +49 value for Cleveland, which is the value of a mid-3rd rounder.

But I do understand the argument being made that breaking even or slightly winning isn't the goal, killing it should be. And the truth is that I would expect Cleveland to be able to get #12, 22 and #51 from Buffalo for pick #4 alone ... so if they were to trade #1 I would think it would be for #12, 22, 51 and probably next year's 1st ... but then you're not picking until #4 and you're getting the 4th QB in all likelihood. Hence why in this scenario, the Browns are swapping with the Giants so Cleveland has #2 to still get "their QB" presumably knowing that whoever Buffalo is going to #1 for is not "their" guy (or they wouldn't make the trade).

@tour2ma said:

That's a lot of math! Problem is that the name of the game is not "Even Steven", it's "Win".

I am curious as to what chart you are using that values the #1 pick at 1000. I'm not familiar with that one.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

It's apparently the new and accepted trade-value chart.

@nero said:

As Hoorta said, looking at the charts we lose a lot of draft value on this trade. 

The only way I see it happening is if we got any interesting Bills' players. And I can only think of Tre'Davious, and he's too young and too promising to be involved in a trade, I think.

I'm trying to figure this one out myself ...

The only scenario that makes sense for me is:

Cleveland moves from #1 and #4 to #2 and #12 and gets #51, 53 and 65 from Buffalo and a 2019 1st (valued as pick #33 this year). That would give Cleveland 8 of the first 65 picks (and their first in the 3rd round back that they gave up for Tyrod) ... and a 2019 1st round pick ... and the new trade-value chart says they give up 1,490 and get back 1,539

NYG give up #2 and get #4 and #22 .... which is giving up 717 in value for 743 back

Buffalo gives up #12, 22, 51, 53, 65 and a 2019 1st round pick to get the #1 pick, which is giving up 1,074 to get back 1,000

It actually, on paper, makes sense for all involved. But with that being said, does the Browns roster really need 2 1st round picks and 5 2nd round picks and the first 3rd round pick in the draft? Or do the Browns then turn around and use all of those 2nd rounders to get back into the 1st at least once, and still come away with a 1st in 2019.

Browns could trade #33, #51 and #65 to move up to #11
Browns could trade #35, #53 to move up to #19

So in theory, Browns could convert #1, #4, #33, #35, #64 into #2, #11, #12, #19 and #65 and a 2019 1st

I don't follow the team as much as you guys obviously, but if this trade were to go down, I don't see the Browns sitting around with 6 picks between 33 and 65 and not moving back into the 1st at least once.

@pat-mahomo said:

I'm not going to dispute that the Browns offered "more" but was it really better? 

From our (KC) point of view, what we got was a 3rd and something better than a 1st wich is a CB that we need, who would be a first round pick this year if he were in this draft, who has proven his worth, and is on his 650k rookie contract for 2 more seasons.  It's like having a 1st round pick, gauranteed not to be a bust and paying him PENNIES.  We got a top end CB and Thrid.  In my opinion, the Fuller, in this case is more valuable than any teams 2nd round pick and problaby worth more than any 1st round pick outside the top 10.  

The other caveat here is that Smith has agreed to an extension with the Redskins already...they didn't just work that out 10 minutes after the trade was announced....this deal has been in the works for a while.  Smith will be "the man" in Washington.  In Cleveland he would be "the bridge"

One last thought.  Given the skins are at 13 in round 1 so they are on the outside looking in at this QB class, but it points to the fact the Redskins have seen enough to think they aren't interested participating in trying to get one of those guys up top.  Just a thought.

You’re assuming the Redskins are competent and make competent decisions. You fleeced us. Congrats, Fuller is a baller. 

Theres some sense in this for Washington ... if this FO had proven capable of making good decisions in the past. I like smith. I think we have a good young defense that was hammered by injuries and CB was our biggest strength. We get a 3rd in 2019 as compensatory for Cousins. But we get older and now won’t even have the joy of attempting a rebuild with a rookie QB around some of the talent we’ve built. Allen is a bafoon. Exhibit A and B being Cousins handling and McCloughsn handling if you didn’t want to look more than 2 years back, to include the previous 6 ridiculous years of BS mismanagement (McNabb, RG3?)

This deal had nothing to do with Cousins ability we much as it did with the team being 100% that Cousins wanted nothing to do with the Skins. 

Also, example #8,531 of why Bruce Allen is a fool and the Redskins are one of the worst managed teams. And a classless organization too. Fuller has to find out on Twitter after initially saying it wasn’t him being traded. 

Not to mention Fuller was a stud. You guys can at least be grateful you aren’t a Redskins fan. And Bruce Allen ain’t going anywhere. He’s Snyder’s alcoholic drinking buddy. It’s sad. He was probably lit making this deal. And the irony is he showed McCloughan the door for drinking 

Well maybe I'll be able to root for Cousins after all! Although my gut says he's going to Denver. 

God. I hope we didn't give up the farm. Would be a totally Redskins move to do so. 

Threw together a FanSpeak Ultimate GM using the Browns ... curiously the top FA QBs to make it through the initial simulation were Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Twatwater. Smith, Cousins, etc. got retained. Not sure how realistic that is, but it was what I was dealt ... so here's what I did. And admittedly, I'm not too familiar with your LB situation and I'm pretty accustomed to the 3-4 personnel and I don't know how your LBs fit into the newish scheme, so I didn't target any LBs in FA for fear that I was getting the "wrong" guy ... I didn't bother with any depth types ... although having scoured the Browns roster I'm not sure I see where you guys lack a ton of depth that couldn't be solved with adding 1 top-flight FA and addressing the position with an early draft pick (See WR, CB). Anyway, you guys are loaded with talent and players that as a Redskins fan, I wanted over the last couple drafts. So here's what I got ...

CB Trumane Johnson - 5 years, $80 million, $40 million guaranteed
WR Jarvis Landry - 5 years, $65 million, $32 million guaranteed
C Weston Richberg - 5 years, $35 million, $10 million guaranteed
RB Le'Veon Bell - 5 years, $75 million, $40 million guaranteed

Lots of $$ thrown around ... and without a bonafide starter at QB going into the draft, these guys (particularly Bell and Landry) may balk at coming to Cleveland to play with a rookie QB ... also I overpaid for Richberg, totally spaced on his concussion this year. He won't get that much. I'd regret that decision if it didn't still leave the Browns with $78 million in cap space. 

Draft:

1.1: Sam Darnold, QB USC
1.4: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS Alabama
2.1: Connor Williams, OT Texas
2.3: Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech
2.31: Auden Tate, WR Florida State
3.1: M.J. Stewart, CB North Carolina
4.1: B.J. Hill, DT NC State
4.23: Bo Scarborough, RB Alabama
5.1: Shaquem Griffin, LB UCF
5.22: J.C. Jackson, CB Maryland
6.1: Jake Weineke, WR South Dakota State
7.1: Siran Neal, CB Jacksonville State

Between the crazy spending spree of FA and the draft, I like where the Browns sit. Issue may arise at QB, putting Darnold in a position to start when he may not be ready, or just hope Kizer with the talent around him, can take the next steps until Darnold is ready. Because outside of the QB position, the rest of the team would be in pretty good shape. 

Pure hypothetical. But if you’re the Browns in FA and manage to land Bell and Cousins ... wouldn’t that make the draft even more exciting? You could trade #1 for a ransom to a QB needy team and just load up across the board. Not to mention you’d probably go from 0-16 to 9-7 purely by adding Cousins and Bell and allowing the rest of your team to progress ... throw in all those draft picks and you could be set for years.

Then the Steelers for as well as they’re run, are down Bell and soon Big Ben. Ravens are pretty meh right now. Cincy is average. There could be a window for the Browns to dominate. And this is an assessment from an outsider.

could you imagine the AFC being taken over by the Browns and Jags for the next 4-5 years? Lol

As far as the discussion re: signing Cousins with your massive cap space ... the Browns could effectively load a massive signing bonus into 2018 and make Cousins cap hit in later years much lighter when the Browns will be wanting to re-sign players who are now on rookie deals. Put something like $50 million of the $70 million guaranteed into 2018 cap hit and free up 2019-2023 cap hits to pay guys like Shelton, Garret, the #1 and #4 picks this year, etc.

Of course, you have to have ownership willing enough to spend that $$. The problem in DC isn't an owner who isn't willing to spend, but an owner who is incapable of bringing in anyone to make good decisions (and then when they do, driving them out for BS reasons - see McCloughan, Scot)

Oh and the "talk" re: Denver is pure speculation ... and if it's mutual, the discussion was around Denver sending #5 and #40 to Washington for Cousins and #13 ... effectively the equivalent of a mid-first round pick in terms of trade-chart value.

Based on the conversations in here, it's clear many of you would steer clear of Cousins. There's some talk in DC right now of giving Cousins the 3rd franchise tag at $34.5 million and trying to negotiate a trade. Of course, Cuosins has to be a party to that and willing to do a long-term deal with the trade partner. Talk here is that Denver is of mutual interest. But the Browns, simply due to the cap space and plethora of picks, have also come up. Given that you'd have to pay the man, what picks would Browns fans be willing to part with? I think it's safe to sa that #1 and #4 would be off the board. By the sounds of it, many of you would be against any trade given you'd be against signing him for "free" ...

As a Redskins fan, I want Cousins back. But if we're not going to get him to a long-term deal, I'll take anything that can help us move the franchise forward. In the case of the Browns, I'd jump at getting 33 & 35 ... and if that's too rich, 33 & 61.

Browns would have Cuosins as their long-term solution at QB. If he completely bombs for whatever reason, you've got Kizer who can still be groomed. Then you can go BPA at 1 & 4 and continue to load the defense and probably add Saquan.

I will say, Saquan + Cousins + Gordon, Coleman, and whoever you add in FA at WR (Allen Robinson?) ... would make for a suddenly potent offense to go with your extremely young and loaded defense.

The Browns remind me a bit right now of Jacksonville 2 years ago. I think with Cousins, you could accelerate the timetable from 2 years from contention to immediate contention. in one off-season.

Gipper, I could never fully give up the Skins for the reasons you mentioned. But I’ve never tried following another team closely, and with the Browns in the AFC and the state of both teams being that a super bowl matchup is unlikely anytime soon, I think having to root for the Skins > Browns once every 4 years is a good situation. 

FanSpeak using Matt Miller's draft board - no trades:

1.1: Sam Darnold, QB USC (or Rosen, you pick)
1.4: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS Alabama
2.1: Sony Michel, RB Georgia
2.3: Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma
2.31: Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville
3.1: Will Hernandez, OG UTEP
4.1: Trenton Thompson, DT Georgia
4.23: Deonte Burnett, WR USC

That'll do. Assuming you sign a CB in FA (Trumane Johnson?), WR (Allen Robinson?), a QB (Alex Smith?) to hold things down for the QB1 to learn, and some LB depth, I think this would make the team instantly competitive. 

I liked Hogan out of college. He’s a DC guy. But to say you can get the same production out of him that you could with Smith or Cousins seems a bit extreme.

Smith or Cousins on last years Browns would make you at least 5-11. With the added picks from this year with Dorsey at the helm, and presumably some high end FAs ... I would say adding Cousins or Smith makes you between 7-9 and 9-7 depending on how your health is and your youngsters play.  Maybe better if everything clicks. 

Seems a good place to drop in. I’m born and raised a Skins fan. My dad was raised on the Browns and moved to DC and became a Skins fan over time. The Browns move did him in and he never picked up the new expansion team. 

I hate Snyder and Bruce Allen. They make it hard to be a fan. RG3 and McCloughan situations have killed me. I’m unlikely to truly lose my Skins fandom but I’m in the market for another team to root for and figure the Browns are a natural fit. I love the NFL draft and have been intrigued with the Browns the last few years (failures then moneyball) and have rooted for a turn around. I’ve found myself more and more reading up on Browns mock drafts and off season strategies and figure why not try it out. 

One of my close buddies made the move back in 2015. He also had family ties to the Browns and he’s now a bigger Browns fan than he ever was Skins fan. I’m not striving for that, but having an AFC team to follow and cheer on will be fun. And i hate the Steelers (and Penguins) so there’s that  

@westside-steve said:

I don't doubt that Kirk Cousins could be competent it's just that I don't want to skip on a top prospect to get him here.

WSS

There’s only so many elite talents. If you think Rosen or Darnold can elevate to be a Top 3-5 QB you just draft them and have them for “cheap” for 5 years. If you’re not sure, Cousins is at least a known commodity to a certain extent and is only 28. 

If you put Cousins on the Jags, Vikings or Broncos they all would likely have been SB contenders. 

I will say, given how bad the Skins defense has been the last 3 years ... and how awful our offensive weapons were this year ... Cousins needs to get a ton of credit. He certainly didn’t elevate the team to playoff caliber but he was close, and the team was ravaged by injuries and he didn’t have a legit 1 or 2 WR. Like I said, I think he can get a team to the title but he won’t “carry” anyone. He makes a bad team .500 ... and would make a decent team playoff caliber. Just hard to say how high his ceiling will be. 

NYG will either take Darnold or Barkley at #2. The colts will take defense but likely will trade out to someone who wants a QB. So at worst you’d get the 3rd best QB but as others said above, you may lose out on getting “your” QB and if you’ve got one you’re honed in on, you should take them at #1. If you have 3 guys who are very close together and you love Barkley then sure. 

Still think the best rout is QB at 1, Fitzpatrick at 4 to be your FS. Then draft OT/RB at 33/35 and WR/DL/CB with your next 3 picks which should all still be starter caliber talent 

Redskins fans are stuck. Like you for so long we just wanted stability and a good option. We now have that ... and hes good and made us consistent. We were so bad the past 2 years from the lack of draft picks and this year had a ton of injuries so it’s hard to say whether it’s Cousins or the team. We are now bored with .500 and want “the next step” and whether that includes cousins or not ... no one knows. Cousins very well could be elite with talent around him. He just hasn’t had much to work with in DC.