QBR and Team Success
-
Good post Shep, just to add to the stat fest, in the last 10 years post Palmer, the Browns have thrown more TD passes than INT's only twice and you can all guess the years, 2002 and 2007. This team is much closer to being a competitive team in the playoff hunt than most think, we need a QB and the sorry fact is we haven't had one since Bernie. There is more to it than just the QB, but imo the selection of the next QB is as if not more important than the HC, especially since we need to match up with Flacco and Roethlisberger 4 times a year.
-
I can think of some great passing teams with pretty poor defenses that have been really competitive lately (Colts, Cardinals, Saints sometimes, Texans in 2009, Chargers in 2009) but not many great defenses with poor passing games. The Jets last year, but they really should have been 7-9 except for a couple gifts.
Agreed. It is a passing league. But the Colts were in this game last year right up until the Saints did what?
INT for a TD
Defense and QBR are so neck and neck it is too close to call.
As I said, lets keep this great thread alive for the playoffs and see who makes it to the next level(s): QBR vs DEF
To be continued...........................
Agreed. It is a passing league. But the Colts were in this game last year right up until the Saints did what?
INT for a TD
Defense and QBR are so neck and neck it is too close to call.
As I said, lets keep this great thread alive for the playoffs and see who makes it to the next level(s): QBR vs DEF
To be continued...........................
Great insight, Hoss. Stuff like this makes a board fun, digging into stats and shit. Baseball people are nuts for it. Riceloft used to bring in some amazing stuff. And good find on turnovers by Zombo. That's a compelling list.
Lovers of defense (hey, my son's a linebacker) will keep an eye on the Jets and Bears, because neither has a juggernaut offense. Cutler had a pretty damn good year and God knows he can light it up... and Sanchez keeps flickering that he'll be among the really good ones soon-ish... they aren't like teams led by Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Vick, etc.
Atlanta's very interesting because of how complete they are. None of the above has a running back like Michael Turner and Atlanta's defense is really, really good... and then there's Ryan-White-Gonzales. They can beat you in a lot of ways. They're "team complete."
First matchup out of the gate is one to watch for this conversation: Jets (great defense) versus Colts (passing is all they do well).
-
Not sure how fair it is to use a calculated rating (qbr) compared to a raw figure like total rushing yards. The fair comparison would be two comparable statistics, like qbr to rbr if one so existed. We do know that the top passing yardage team almost never wins the superbowl, if they ever have at all. Its important to be able to run the ball as well.
Caleb said:
Not sure how fair it is to use a calculated rating (qbr) compared to a raw figure like total rushing yards. The fair comparison would be two comparable statistics, like qbr to rbr if one so existed. We do know that the top passing yardage team almost never wins the superbowl, if they ever have at all. Its important to be able to run the ball as well.New Orleans was right up there last year, for sure. Same with Manning's Colts. This year's favorite (Patriots) are very high on the list.
It's amazing how many of the top teams the last few years aren't very good at running the ball. In consecutive years, the team that finished DEAD LAST in rushing made it to the Super Bowl (Cards and Colts). This year's playoff teams feature a lot who don't run the ball very well (Patriots, Colts, Saints, Packers, and so on).
-
Good post Shep, just to add to the stat fest, in the last 10 years post Palmer, the Browns have thrown more TD passes than INT's only twice and you can all guess the years, 2002 and 2007. This team is much closer to being a competitive team in the playoff hunt than most think, we need a QB and the sorry fact is we haven't had one since Bernie. There is more to it than just the QB, but imo the selection of the next QB is as if not more important than the HC, especially since we need to match up with Flacco and Roethlisberger 4 times a year.
Good post Shep, just to add to the stat fest, in the last 10 years post Palmer, the Browns have thrown more TD passes than INT's only twice and you can all guess the years, 2002 and 2007. This team is much closer to being a competitive team in the playoff hunt than most think, we need a QB and the sorry fact is we haven't had one since Bernie. There is more to it than just the QB, but imo the selection of the next QB is as if not more important than the HC, especially since we need to match up with Flacco and Roethlisberger 4 times a year.
Talk about reducing it to the cold, hard truth.
There was a terrific article that quoted a lot of GMs and Gruden quite a bit, pointing out the simple fact that high-level play and stability at QB is the common thread of the winningest teams of the past decade. Almost all of the sources felt the QB affected the team around him more than vice-versa, citing Manning, Brady, Brees, and Favre/Rodgers being able to win with a revolving door at WR and RB. Not very often do the top teams feature the highest-paid and most decorated OL, either.
The best LT of the last 30 years is probably Munoz... and he never won a Super Bowl. Best TE? Gonzales. No rings. CB? Revis. Nothing yet. You really want your best player to be your QB. It's tough to machinate that... but it's the ideal. You want your money on the position with the most influence on the bottom line and nothing else comes close. Generally, you go to left tackle and pass rusher next. Then #1 WR and lockdown corner, although the latter has been hamstrung by rules quite a bit. Oakland's had the second best in the league for five years now... and it hasn't won them anything.
-
Interestingly, pass yardage teams have mostly been playoff teams the last few years. I went over that last year as well. Here are where the playoff teams rank in run yardage:
1 - KC
4 - Jets
5 - Phil
11 - Pitt
12 - Atl
14 - Balt
22 - Chicago
24 - Green Bay
28 - New Orleans
29 - Indy
31 - Seattle
Each of the last two years, the team ranked 32nd in rushing made the Super Bowl. You've got some pretty serious contenders ranked 24, 28, and 29 this year.
On the whole, that list tells you running for a lot of yards has absolutely no correlation with making the playoffs. It's all over the board.
QBR, on the other hand...
-
As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
-
12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
-
As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
DEFENSE baby. DEFENSE!
-
12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
On the macro level, I'm buying your take on defense in the playoffs. BUT... I see scoring defense as the result of statistical factors while QBR IS a statistical factor.
If a team scores a lot and doesn't let the other team score much... that's just called winning.
12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
-
A result of statistical factors? You mean POINTS ALLOWED? Because that is how those teams are ranked. That is not a result of anything BUT one ranking - how many points did your team give up? It is about as pure a ranking regarding making the playoffs as we can find.
It is not a result of anything but stopping the team from scoring.
Now QBR on the other hand is just the opposite. It is a complicated compilation of a bunch of different statistics, including YPA, Sacks, INTS, and if the guy got laid the night before.
I know what you tried to do right there, but no dude. No.
-
bottom line, the teams with the better defenses won. Jets have a better D than the colts, Packers have a better D than the Eagles, Ravens have a better D than the chiefs, Seattle doesn't have a better D than the Saints- but they did last Saturday. The saints D gave up over 40 pts to a team that averaged 19 a game all season.. Drew Brees has got to be pissed with his defense.
-
Scoring Defense:
PIT (1)
GB (2)
CHI (4)
NYJ (6)
QBR:
GB (3)
PIT (5)
CHI (16)
NYJ (27)
The top 2 scoring defenses are still alive, every team in the playoffs is a top 10 Scoring Defense, and as you can see we have some bottom feeding QBR teams still alive and well.
QBR is the most important factor for success? Doesn't seem logical, does it?
-
Well the point to note in the cart and horse analogy with the QB and good teams is the fact that both the comparables have two entities.
We dont have a cart or a horse.
Well the point to note in the cart and horse analogy with the QB and good teams is the fact that both the comparables have two entities.
We dont have a cart or a horse.
Right, well, in New Orleans they have all three, a QB, a cart, and a horse:
-
Cal, you take away Dallas Clark or just about anyone else and the Colts just keep on winning. You take away Manning and they're the Browns, or close. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. Same for Brees, Brady, and the rest. Nobody influences the bottom line half as much as the quarterback, for better or worse. Shep
***************************
But the Saints, Colts and Patriots are out of the playoffs. Those are THE three top tier qbs..
And they have decent defenses, too. I know they can keep winning if you take away a piece, because they still
have most of the pieces in place.
And the Browns really beat the Pats (Brady) earlier in the year, and the Saints (Brees).
You take Wallace and Ward away from Bun rothlicksboogers, and the squeelers would have lost
to the ratbirds. Well, maybe, if the ratbirds hadn't given away those two big turnovers...
Seriously, look at the first four games that over-rated bun was suspended for:
1 ATL W 15-9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 Sep 19 @ TEN W 19-11 - - - - - - - -
3 Sep 26 @ TAM W 38-13 - - - - - - - -
4 Oct 3 BAL L 14-17
The squeelers won with their BACKUP qb early on, at the beginning of the season. No bun, still won. GGG
It's a team game. With the pieces in place, another piece, even another qb, can step in and win.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login