QBR and Team Success
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Interestingly, pass yardage teams have mostly been playoff teams the last few years. I went over that last year as well. Here are where the playoff teams rank in run yardage:
1 - KC
4 - Jets
5 - Phil
11 - Pitt
12 - Atl
14 - Balt
22 - Chicago
24 - Green Bay
28 - New Orleans
29 - Indy
31 - Seattle
Each of the last two years, the team ranked 32nd in rushing made the Super Bowl. You've got some pretty serious contenders ranked 24, 28, and 29 this year.
On the whole, that list tells you running for a lot of yards has absolutely no correlation with making the playoffs. It's all over the board.
QBR, on the other hand...
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As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
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12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
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As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
As far as raw passing yardage:
Five teams rank in the bottom half of pass yardage: Seattle, Baltimore, NYJ, Chicago, and Kansas City. I personally expect to see Seattle, the Jets, and KC out after round one. Baltimore will beat KC... not sure who Chicago plays.
Indy, New Orleans, and Green Bay rank 1-3-5. They were three of the worst rushing teams. Interesting to watch how that plays out.
Otherwise, you have these "top half" teams...
9 - Phil
11 - NE
14 - Pitt
15 - ATL
DEFENSE baby. DEFENSE!
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12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
On the macro level, I'm buying your take on defense in the playoffs. BUT... I see scoring defense as the result of statistical factors while QBR IS a statistical factor.
If a team scores a lot and doesn't let the other team score much... that's just called winning.
12 playoff teams and their ranking in QBR:
NE1
GB 3
PHI 4
PIT 5
BAL 7
KC 8
IND 9
ATL 11
NO 12
CHI 16
JETS 27
SEA 28
12 Playoffs teams and their ranking in Scoring DEF:
Pitt 1
GB 2
BAL 3
CHI 4
ATL 5
JETS 6
NO 7
NE 8
KC 11
PHI 21
IND 23
SEA 25
I see more of the bottom feeders in QBR still alive, and more of the bottom feeders in Scoring DEF home right now. 3 of the top 10 teams in QBR are out now and they happen to have lower DEF rankings. Just keeping a running tally.
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A result of statistical factors? You mean POINTS ALLOWED? Because that is how those teams are ranked. That is not a result of anything BUT one ranking - how many points did your team give up? It is about as pure a ranking regarding making the playoffs as we can find.
It is not a result of anything but stopping the team from scoring.
Now QBR on the other hand is just the opposite. It is a complicated compilation of a bunch of different statistics, including YPA, Sacks, INTS, and if the guy got laid the night before.
I know what you tried to do right there, but no dude. No.
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bottom line, the teams with the better defenses won. Jets have a better D than the colts, Packers have a better D than the Eagles, Ravens have a better D than the chiefs, Seattle doesn't have a better D than the Saints- but they did last Saturday. The saints D gave up over 40 pts to a team that averaged 19 a game all season.. Drew Brees has got to be pissed with his defense.
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Scoring Defense:
PIT (1)
GB (2)
CHI (4)
NYJ (6)
QBR:
GB (3)
PIT (5)
CHI (16)
NYJ (27)
The top 2 scoring defenses are still alive, every team in the playoffs is a top 10 Scoring Defense, and as you can see we have some bottom feeding QBR teams still alive and well.
QBR is the most important factor for success? Doesn't seem logical, does it?
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Well the point to note in the cart and horse analogy with the QB and good teams is the fact that both the comparables have two entities.
We dont have a cart or a horse.
Well the point to note in the cart and horse analogy with the QB and good teams is the fact that both the comparables have two entities.
We dont have a cart or a horse.
Right, well, in New Orleans they have all three, a QB, a cart, and a horse:
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Cal, you take away Dallas Clark or just about anyone else and the Colts just keep on winning. You take away Manning and they're the Browns, or close. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. Same for Brees, Brady, and the rest. Nobody influences the bottom line half as much as the quarterback, for better or worse. Shep
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But the Saints, Colts and Patriots are out of the playoffs. Those are THE three top tier qbs..
And they have decent defenses, too. I know they can keep winning if you take away a piece, because they still
have most of the pieces in place.
And the Browns really beat the Pats (Brady) earlier in the year, and the Saints (Brees).
You take Wallace and Ward away from Bun rothlicksboogers, and the squeelers would have lost
to the ratbirds. Well, maybe, if the ratbirds hadn't given away those two big turnovers...
Seriously, look at the first four games that over-rated bun was suspended for:
1 ATL W 15-9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 Sep 19 @ TEN W 19-11 - - - - - - - -
3 Sep 26 @ TAM W 38-13 - - - - - - - -
4 Oct 3 BAL L 14-17
The squeelers won with their BACKUP qb early on, at the beginning of the season. No bun, still won. GGG
It's a team game. With the pieces in place, another piece, even another qb, can step in and win.
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