Interesting QB Draft Information
-
Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.
Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins
40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.
20% bust.
Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
-
Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
-
Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
There is probably some validity in your concern over the ACL. As far as a back up I don't think Hoyer is a backup. I am 100% sold that he is a starter with top 10 upside.
-
Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
-
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I meant two years ago.
This past draft was so forgettable that I did just that...forgot it.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL. As a physical prospect, Bridgewater is so-so. He's smaller than the ideal size, not exceptionally fast and doesn't possess the best arm of the crop.
Bridgewater is the most NFL ready quarterback in this draft in teens of mental acuity and football intelligence, however,
What bothers me is that an inordinately high percentage of Louisville's pass attempts are between 6-15 yards. At one point in the season, Louisville had something like 70% of their attempts in the short zone.
Bridgewater did complete about 71% of those passes, though, which is nice.
I'm just not sold on him. To trade up for a player, the FO better be certain he's their guy, and I don't think they do.
-
Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
We will draft a QB, but he doesn't have to start right away.Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
Hoyer played well enough to earn a spot to at least compete for the QB1 spot on day 1 2014.
If his success waivers or he gets hurt, then throw the rookie in.
-
Glennon, Foles, Wilson, Kaepernick, Dalton, Brady.
Second round or later. It's a crap shoot. Keep as many picks and take the QB that falls to us. Hoyer is starter.
-
It amazes me how many of you guys are willing to put so much faith into Brian Hoyer... wow. To me, he could easily become another Frye/McCoy/Anderson/Holcolm/etc... He showed some flash in limited play, and that's it. Isn't anybody worried that what happened to those other QBs might happen to Hoyer????? I guess not though, 4 career starts at age 28, turning 29 next season... torn ACL... hmmm...
What about drafting a QB higher than 22nd? When was the last time we did that? Couch - who had no chance when taking over an expansion team.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Hoyer step in and lead the team to a winning season... hell, I'd love to see anybody step in and win. I just don't have as much faith in him as others. I'd be willing to let him compete for the job, but I'd rather see a new QB in there next year...
-
brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
-
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I meant two years ago.
This past draft was so forgettable that I did just that...forgot it.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL. As a physical prospect, Bridgewater is so-so. He's smaller than the ideal size, not exceptionally fast and doesn't possess the best arm of the crop.
Bridgewater is the most NFL ready quarterback in this draft in teens of mental acuity and football intelligence, however,
What bothers me is that an inordinately high percentage of Louisville's pass attempts are between 6-15 yards. At one point in the season, Louisville had something like 70% of their attempts in the short zone.
Bridgewater did complete about 71% of those passes, though, which is nice.
I'm just not sold on him. To trade up for a player, the FO better be certain he's their guy, and I don't think they do.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
-
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
go suck his dick already or STFU.
do we really have to hear this shit for another five fucking months?
-
brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
lol, so bad
-
What do think of Denver's OL right now?
-
Browns already have 2 1st rounders on the OL. Just need 3 more. That's how all the good teams do it!
-
In addition to Marcus Mariota not coming out this year, Bryce Petty of Baylor has also declared that he is staying in School. I am not sure where he would have rated had he come out this year.
Also, of course Jamis Winston of FSU is in the clear as far as any charges being brought.
Ergo, it seems that next year could end up being a far better year to be looking for a QB than this year.
Winston would be the #1 pick right now if he were eligible. Some had Mariota as the #1 choice this year over Bridgewater. Then Petty will also be out there.
Of course, sometimes what people think will be a good year for QBs could be a crap year for QBs
Remember when it was touted that the 1999 QB class with Couch/McNabb/Smith/McNown and others could rival the 1983 class?
I guess not.
(If you feel the need to merge this, I won't feel bad)
-
The problem I have with anointing Hoyer is the small sample set. Jason Cambpell looked good in his first two games, better in fact than Hoyer, then he was horrible against Cincy and Pitt - who's to say the same wouldn't have happened to Hoyer?
-
The problem I have with anointing Hoyer is the small sample set. Jason Cambpell looked good in his first two games, better in fact than Hoyer, then he was horrible against Cincy and Pitt - who's to say the same wouldn't have happened to Hoyer?
The problem I have with anointing Hoyer is the small sample set. Jason Cambpell looked good in his first two games, better in fact than Hoyer, then he was horrible against Cincy and Pitt - who's to say the same wouldn't have happened to Hoyer?
Agreed, except Hoyer has shown great accuracy and a quick release in all his game. He's definitely better than Campbell at those. Hoyer and a rookie for me.
-
The quick release does make the OL look a lot better and we take less sacks. Plus, it was with Hoyer under centre that we got the best production out of Cameron. That being said, the quick release doesn't allow for plays to develop - that may be why Gordon *only* got about 220 yards total in those two games...
-
Hoyer is qb smart. Makes great, quick decisions.
Campbell and Weedone take precious seconds to
make up their minds, they are tentative about their
throws, and Campbell isn't that much more accurate
than Weedone.
Neither of them understands "anticipation", and Weedone might
get lost, trying to spell it.
Hoyer and a rookie. And this coaching staff will know the exact qb
to draft. Whoever that is, has my full support. Because this coaching staff
knows what the hell they are doing. They know who fits and who doesn't.
Previously, drafting goobers who don't love the game, but have physical skills didn't
pay off. That was stupid.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better đź’—
Register Login