Interesting QB Draft Information
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Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.
Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins
40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.
20% bust.
Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.
Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.
Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins
40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.
20% bust.
Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
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1 2012 1 1 Andrew Luck QB IND 2012 2013 0 0 2 13 28 28 19-9-0 582 1045 7167 38 26 110 559 9 Stanford
2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2013 0 0 3 34 44 44 22-22-0 816 1368 10536 59 40 335 1894 28 Auburn 3
2010 1 1 Sam Bradford QB STL 2010 2013 0 0 4 20 49 49 18-30-1 1032 1760 11065 59 38 97 247 2 Oklahoma 4
2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford QB DET 2009 2013 0 0 4 33 57 56 24-33-0 1410 2363 16632 107 68 109 385 9 Georgia 5
2007 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 6 31 25 7-18-0 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU 6
2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB SFO 2005 2013 0 0 9 36 92 87 47-39-1 1551 2617 17016 97 69 276 1121 5 Utah 7
2004 1 1 Eli Manning QB SDG 2004 2013 0 2 9 85 149 147 83-64-0 2858 4879 34522 226 162 229 433 4 Mississippi 8
2003 1 1 Carson Palmer QB CIN 2004 2013 0 2 9 81 134 133 61-72-0 2842 4546 32654 208 147 231 381 7 USC 9
2002 1 1 David Carr QB HOU 2002 2012 0 0 5 44 94 79 23-56-0 1353 2267 14452 65 71 305 1328 9 Fresno St. 10
2001 1 1 Michael Vick QB ATL 2001 2013 0 4 8 88 127 108 58-48-1 1703 3030 21489 128 85 825 5859 36 Virginia Tech 11
1999 1 1 Tim Couch QB CLE 1999 2003 0 0 3 30 62 59 22-37-0 1025 1714 11131 64 67 124 556 2 Kentucky 12
1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB IND 1998 2013 5 11 15 165 236 236 164-72-0 5409 8273 63612 477 218 398 698 18 Tennessee 13
1993 1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB NWE 1993 2006 0 4 12 103 194 193 98-95-0 3839 6717 44611 251 206 385 764 10 Washington St. 14
1990 1 1 Jeff George QB IND 1990 2001 0 0 9 65 131 124 46-78-0 2298 3967 27602 154 113 168 307 2 Illinois 15
1989 1 1 Troy Aikman HOF QB DAL 1989 2000 0 6 12 97 165 165 94-71-0 2898 4715 32942 165 141 327 1016 9 UCLA 16
1987 1 1 Vinny Testaverde QB TAM 1987 2007 0 2 15 97 233 214 90-123-1 3787 6701 46233 275 267 430 1661 15 Miami (FL) 17
1983 1 1 John Elway HOF QB BAL 1983 1998 0 9 16 138 234 231 148-82-1 4123 7250 51475 300 226 774 3407 33 Stanford 18
1975 1 1 Steve Bartkowski QB ATL 1975 1986 0 2 10 70 129 127 59-68-0 1932 3456 24124 156 144 178 239 11 California 19
1971 1 1 Jim Plunkett QB NWE 1971 1986 0 0 10 85 157 144 72-72-0 1943 3701 25882 164 198 323 1337 14 Stanford 20
1970 1 1 Terry Bradshaw HOF QB PIT 1970 1983 1 3 13 106 168 158 107-51-0 2025 3901 27989 212 210 444 2257 32 Louisiana Tech 21
1965 1 1 Joe Namath HOF QB NYJ 1965 1977 1 5 9 94 140 130 62-63-4 1886 3762 27663 173 220 71 140 7 Alabama 22
1964 1 1 Jack Concannon QB BOS 1964 1975 0 0 3 26 90 46 20-24-1 560 1110 6270 36 63 217 1026 12 Boston Col. 23
1963 1 1 Terry Baker QB RAM 1963 1965 0 0 0 6 18 1 0-1-0 12 21 154 0 4 58 210 1 Oregon St. 24
1962 1 1 Roman Gabriel QB OAK 1962 1977 1 4 12 98 183 157 86-64-7 2366 4498 29444 201 149 358 1304 30 North Carolina St. 25
1959 1 1 Randy Duncan QB GNB 1961 1961 0 0 0 2 14 2 1-1-0 25 67 361 1 3 5 42 0 Iowa 26
1958 1 1 King Hill QB CRD 1958 1969 0 0 6 27 123 29 7-22-1 429 881 5553 37 71 88 308 9 Rice 27
1955 1 1 George Shaw QB BAL 1955 1962 0 0 1 28 71 29 11-16-2 405 802 5829 41 63 130 431 6 Oregon 28
1954 1 1 Bobby Garrett QB CLE 1954 1954 0 0 0 1 9 0 15 30 143 0 1 1 -3 0 Stanford 29
1952 1 1 Billy Wade QB RAM 1954 1966 0 2 8 74 128 85 40-43-2 1370 2523 18530 124 134 318 1334 24 Vanderbilt 30
1948 1 1 Harry Gilmer QB WAS 1948 1956 0 2 1 22 76 13 0-10-0 263 579 3786 23 45 201 923 1 Alabama
Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 31
1946 1 1 Boley Dancewicz QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 1 0 23 2 96 238 1551 12 29 65 229 2 Notre Dame 32
1944 1 1 Angelo Bertelli QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 0 0 16 5 76 166 972 8 19 14 -15 1
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To boil down a bit what you see above, these are the #1 overall QB picks in histoy.
A. The very least productive QB ever taken #1 over all was Bobby Garrett by the Cleveland Browns in 1954
B. Since 1964 when the injury plagued Jack Concannon was taken by the AFL Patriots, the least productive #1 pick taken has been Jamarcus Russell by the Raiders. #2 on that list is Tim Couch taken by the Browns.
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I would give up both first rounders and a 3rd round pick to move up to #1.
Not in a million years would I do that in this draft. If Luck was there you bet your ass I would. Thus far there is no candidate that is clearly head and shoulders above the rest and guaranteed NFL ready. As it stands now we are far better off to take someone with our 2nd 1st rounder or our 2nd round pick. There should be a very good prospect available there. Our first round pick will be high enough that if someone we love drops in our lap we can take him. I do not want to see us take another high pick, rush him in because management feels obligated to play a high pick and ruin another kid.
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ugh. another one of these threads.
can't we just all bunch them together with the title desperate gay QB fans new draft possibilities.
or just open the tavern on thursday nites, the nite of the .05 cent moustache rides?
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I would give up both first rounders and a 3rd round pick to move up to #1.
Not in a million years would I do that in this draft. If Luck was there you bet your ass I would. Thus far there is no candidate that is clearly head and shoulders above the rest and guaranteed NFL ready. As it stands now we are far better off to take someone with our 2nd 1st rounder or our 2nd round pick. There should be a very good prospect available there. Our first round pick will be high enough that if someone we love drops in our lap we can take him. I do not want to see us take another high pick, rush him in because management feels obligated to play a high pick and ruin another kid.
Not in a million years would I do that in this draft. If Luck was there you bet your ass I would. Thus far there is no candidate that is clearly head and shoulders above the rest and guaranteed NFL ready. As it stands now we are far better off to take someone with our 2nd 1st rounder or our 2nd round pick. There should be a very good prospect available there. Our first round pick will be high enough that if someone we love drops in our lap we can take him. I do not want to see us take another high pick, rush him in because management feels obligated to play a high pick and ruin another kid.
I've seen plenty of people compare Bridgewater to Luck. Whether the comparison is legit or not, I don't know, but the reason I like him so much has nothing to do with his arm and everything to do with his brain. In my opinion the team more than enough resources between salary cap and picks to be able to afford to move up to try and snag Bridgewater. If it didn't happen, though, I'd be perfectly find with picking Carr with our first pick if available, and if not, picking Watkins and then using the second 1st rounder, a second round pick, or third for the QB and let him sit behind Hoyer.
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Taking it further lets look at Bridgewater.
Lets say he is 40% to be a top ten QB and we'll say its worth 4-5 wins
40% to be in the 11-20 range and worth 1-3 wins.
20% bust.
Seems like its easily worth 3-4 picks to trade up for that value.
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
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Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
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Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
Only in Cleveland do we look to 'solve' QB problems by taking a guy later in the draft and letting him sit behind a backup coming off ACL surgery.
There is probably some validity in your concern over the ACL. As far as a back up I don't think Hoyer is a backup. I am 100% sold that he is a starter with top 10 upside.
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Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
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Except those are just figures you have pulled out of your ass.
If we're rashly generalizing then, statistically speaking, there is an equal percentage for all outcomes. His draft position, past accomplishments, measureables have nothing to do with his future success.
There is an equal 33.3% chance of him being a great NFL player, a 33.3% chance of him being a mediocre player, and a 33.3% chance of him being a bust.
Bridgewater is the consensus #1 in this draft. In last year's draft, he's the third or even fourth best QB. In next year's draft, he may be the second best or the twelfth best. It's all relative.
Here's a list of all first round QB's to start this season, along with their draft position and whether or not they were part of a trade up.
http://factoryofsadness.sportsblog.com/posts/217092/mortgaging_your_future_is_it.html
Looking back at the data, you tell me whether or not it's worth it to trade up and take a QB, especially in this year's draft class.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I meant two years ago.
This past draft was so forgettable that I did just that...forgot it.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL. As a physical prospect, Bridgewater is so-so. He's smaller than the ideal size, not exceptionally fast and doesn't possess the best arm of the crop.
Bridgewater is the most NFL ready quarterback in this draft in teens of mental acuity and football intelligence, however,
What bothers me is that an inordinately high percentage of Louisville's pass attempts are between 6-15 yards. At one point in the season, Louisville had something like 70% of their attempts in the short zone.
Bridgewater did complete about 71% of those passes, though, which is nice.
I'm just not sold on him. To trade up for a player, the FO better be certain he's their guy, and I don't think they do.
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Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
We will draft a QB, but he doesn't have to start right away.Ok fair enough. You guys like hoyer. I do too but only as a backup. Clearly, drafting a qb has a lot to do with your view of hoyer.
Hoyer played well enough to earn a spot to at least compete for the QB1 spot on day 1 2014.
If his success waivers or he gets hurt, then throw the rookie in.
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Glennon, Foles, Wilson, Kaepernick, Dalton, Brady.
Second round or later. It's a crap shoot. Keep as many picks and take the QB that falls to us. Hoyer is starter.
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It amazes me how many of you guys are willing to put so much faith into Brian Hoyer... wow. To me, he could easily become another Frye/McCoy/Anderson/Holcolm/etc... He showed some flash in limited play, and that's it. Isn't anybody worried that what happened to those other QBs might happen to Hoyer????? I guess not though, 4 career starts at age 28, turning 29 next season... torn ACL... hmmm...
What about drafting a QB higher than 22nd? When was the last time we did that? Couch - who had no chance when taking over an expansion team.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Hoyer step in and lead the team to a winning season... hell, I'd love to see anybody step in and win. I just don't have as much faith in him as others. I'd be willing to let him compete for the job, but I'd rather see a new QB in there next year...
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brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
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I don't know how to respond to this post. Its horrible. The bolded seems way off.
Sure, I am estimating. Given history, I think my %s are pretty fair. I'd give Bridgewater about a 40% of being a top 10 QB. Of course, I look at draft class. Next year, WInston looks to be an even better chance at a future top 10 QB. Hell, even if you think TB only has a 33% of being a top level QB, its worth trading up for him.
Its a good thing the Colts didn't trade up to get Manning. He would have been a bust had they done so.
I meant two years ago.
This past draft was so forgettable that I did just that...forgot it.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL. As a physical prospect, Bridgewater is so-so. He's smaller than the ideal size, not exceptionally fast and doesn't possess the best arm of the crop.
Bridgewater is the most NFL ready quarterback in this draft in teens of mental acuity and football intelligence, however,
What bothers me is that an inordinately high percentage of Louisville's pass attempts are between 6-15 yards. At one point in the season, Louisville had something like 70% of their attempts in the short zone.
Bridgewater did complete about 71% of those passes, though, which is nice.
I'm just not sold on him. To trade up for a player, the FO better be certain he's their guy, and I don't think they do.
Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
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Bridgewater won't amount to very much in the NFL.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
You sound very sure of yourself. I'd take a wager on this. This guy seems to disagree with you.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutSteve Young-ish. RT @AndyCoachFB: NFL comparison for Bridgewater? Current or historic.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutPeople say Bridgewater hasn't played a good defense. Rutgers had 3 defensive backs drafted last year. He shredded them.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout.@fetish4lettuce I'm comparing Bridgewater to RG3 because he just replaced him as my No. 2 QB all-time scouted.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutThe only QB I've graded in 10 years that is higher ranked than Bridgewater? Andrew Luck.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutYou can call it hype or trolling, but I'm all-in on Bridgewater. I'll stake my reputation on him being an upper-level NFL quarterback.
Quote:Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscoutFoot work, vision, passing mechanics, touch, ball placment—actual QBing—Bridgewater is better than RG3 was.
Not all scouts share these thoughts obviously. But combining all the stuff out there and TB is not some scrub that is the #1 QB prospect simply by default.
go suck his dick already or STFU.
do we really have to hear this shit for another five fucking months?
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brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
brian hoyer, tom brady, peyton manning. it doesn't matter.
if the guy has no time to throw a pass or when he hands off the ball to his RB and he is smacked 6 yds. behind the line of scrimmage what does that say to you.
NO PROTECTION. period. end of story.
i'd love to give a mulligan and bring in the best QB in the league withour dysfunctional OL and have them play anyone and see how that goes.
don't give me that shit "well when hoyer was in there he mad the OL look better."
YEAH, YOU KNOW WHY? CUZ HE COULD MOVE OUT OF THE POCKET IN 3 SECONDS AFTER THE POCKET COLLAPSED.
fuck trading up, if the guy we pick sucks it's another 3-5 years of watching a suckass team until they address the OL.
lol, so bad
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What do think of Denver's OL right now?
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