What QB Stats (if any) Translate College Success into NFL Success?

Tour2ma

Lot of lists to follow. Won't copy and paste them, but will link to them so any so inclined can look for themselves.

Passing Yards
Here's the Top 100, Single season passing yardage leaders:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-yds-player-season.html
Of the 100 (includes some repeats) here are the "great" NFL names, 4 in total:
28. Philip Rivers, 29. Ben Roethlisberger, 83/94. Drew Brees, 95. Steve Young

Here are the good NFL names, 3 in total:
24. Jim McMahon, 27. Matt Ryan, 89. Carson Palmer

Here are the TBD names:
9/68. Derek Carr, 38. Nick Foles, 44. Robert Griffin III, T-53. Geno Smith, 56. Bryce Petty, 67. Johnny Manziel, 72. Jameis Winston, 75. Brock Osweiler, 76. Mike Glennon, 84. Teddy Twatwater

TD Passes
Here's the Top 100, Single season passing TD leaders:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-td-player-season.html
Of the 100 (includes some repeats) here are the "great" NFL names, 8 in total:
T-28. Drew Brees, T-46. Andrew Luck, T-46. Ben Roethlisberger, T-46. Dan Marino, T-62. Peyton Manning, T-82. Philip Rivers, T-98. Steve Young

Here are the good NFL names, 5 in total:
T-8. Jim McMahon, T-21/T-46. Chad Pennington, T-37. Doug Williams, T-98. Russell Wilson, T-98. Carson Palmer

Here are the TBD names:
T-4/T-46. Derek Carr, Sam Bradford, 20. Kellen Moore, T-21. Geno Smith, 25. Jameis Winston, T-37. Marcus Mariota, T-46. Sean Mannion, T-46. Johnny Manziel, T-46. Robert Griffin III, T-62. Aaron Murray, T-62. Sam Bradford, T-82. J.T. Barrett, T-98. David Fales (2)

Rating
Here's the Top 100, Single season passer rating leaders:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html
Of the 100 (includes some repeats) here are the "great" NFL names, 4 in total:
43. Philip Rivers* 170.49, 45/47. Andrew Luck* 170.16, 55. Steve Young* 168.45, 73. Ben Roethlisberger* 165.84

Here are the good NFL names, 14 in total:
1. Russell Wilson 191.78, 8. Cam Newton* 182.05, 14. Jim McMahon* 176.87, 16. Alex Smith* 176.52, 27. Jason Campbell* 172.89, 29. Kerry Collins* 172.85, 34. Chad Pennington* 171.41, 37. Michael Vick* 171.08, 40. Rex Grossman* 170.75, 44. Daunte Culpepper 170.24, 59. Trent Dilfer* 167.20, 67. Andy Dalton* 166.48, 74. Vinny Testaverde* 165.79, 79. Mark Sanchez* 164.64

Here are the TBD names:
2. Robert Griffin III 189.48, 4. Marcus Mariota 186.11, 6. Jameis Winston 184.84, 10/15. Sam Bradford* 180.84, 18. A.J. McCarron* 175.28, 22. Aaron Murray* 174.82, 23. Bryce Petty* 174.29, 28. Johnny Manziel* 172.88, 33. Zach Mettenberger* 171.45, 36. Teddy Twatwater* 171.14, 39. David Fales* 170.76 2012 San Jose State, 46. J.T. Barrett 169.83, 57. Marcus Mariota* 167.66, 61. A.J. McCarron* 167.17, 72. David Carr* 165.91, 92. Ryan Mallett* 163.65, 94. Blake Bortles* 163.43, 97. Marcus Mariota* 163.23, 100. Connor Shaw* 162.94

No sure the above sheds a great deal of light on the predictability puzzle with the possible exception that yards take a backseat to other measures.

It's your thread now...

Mudfly

Never met a stat I couldn't twist.....or an argument that I couldn't find a stat to support.....so........

I dont think there IS a stat that translates college to NFL. Otherwise EVERYONE would know what that stat is and it would be the standard....right?

Nope...it's the whole package that has to be evaluate.....

Stats: Ok....its a starting point at least. But so many things have to be accounted for from the system, to competition, to team talent, to coaching style, etc....

Tangibles....body type, size, release speed, footwork, etc are all things for the eye test....

Intangibles....work ethic, coachability, maturity, resilience, will to win, etc....this stuff is a crap shoot, but very very important..

So, I say, it's everything and no collection of stats is gonna guarantee anything.....

tiamat63

^^ Nailed it. There is no quantitative stat that defines a QB. They are, all of them, symbiotic.

If I had to come up with a stat, release time and average time from snap to throw would be up there. I feel this would indicate not only a quality NFL quick release but also

decisive decision making. However those can be skewed with bubble screens, slants and quick outs.

darkside5

No stats in my estimation, comparing apples to oranges. I would tend to look at a "prototype" . Size arm strength and agility I think obviously fits that bill. Most importantly is what's between the ears academically and socially . Does the kid have analytical skills and good study habits . Can he relate to others socially. What type personality is he A or B and which am I looking for to fit in . Does he have a juvenile police record . Sounds like Dr. Frankenstein I know but before I would invest potentially millions of dollars in this guy I want to have an informed idea of what I'm getting other than stats and physical attributes.

GO BROWNS !

Browns149

Here's what you look for:

Dan Marino's release,

John Elway's arm,

Steve Young's legs

Peyton Manning's brain

and Joe Montana's cool

PROBLEM SOLVED

Westside Steve

You only mentioned the great good or undecideds. There's got to be some turds in the upper echelon.

WSS

Mudfly

@westside-steve said:

You only mentioned the great good or undecideds. There's got to be some turds in the upper echelon.

WSS

Yep...lots of turds....here is a selection of ist round picks from just the last 10 years.....all 1st rounders.....

Manuel

RGIII

Weeden

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Bradford

Tebow

Sanchez

Freeman

J. Russell

Quinn

V. Young

Leinert

Cutler

Campbell

Losman

So....in 10 years, a total of 31 QB's have been picked 1st round.....and the 17 listed above have been less than good so far.....

Which means there are still 14 out there who either are playing well....or still unproven(including this years class of 3).....

And I guess the only point is that these guys all had SOMETHING the experts liked from college....they were the best of the best and most had great college stats....or the perfect skill set....or the best body type....but still fell short at a rate greater than 50%

secondwave

^Love him or hate him, Jay Cutler isn't a 1st round dud.

Richiswhere

Just like hardcore porn .....you know it when you see it!

Mudfly

@secondwave said:
^Love him or hate him, Jay Cutler isn't a 1st round dud.

Ok, whatever....He's great then!....the best!

Now, lets see if Chicago thinks so, because right now he's on the bench.....

Browns149

Cutler is average at best He has talent but he isn't a very good QB.

He's been in the league 9 years and made the playoffs 1 time. He's made the pro bowl 1 time also. He's only had 1 4000 yard season too. His 61-55 record is about average.

He does have a boat load of cash and a hot wife though

secondwave

@browns149 said:

Cutler is average at best He has talent but he isn't a very good QB.

He's been in the league 9 years and made the playoffs 1 time. He's made the pro bowl 1 time also. He's only had 1 4000 yard season too. His 61-55 record is about average.

He does have a boat load of cash and a hot wife though

Relative to some of those guys on that list, he's definitely not a dud. Weeden is a dud. Tebow was a dud. Big difference.

@mudfly said:

Ok, whatever....He's great then!....the best!

Now, lets see if Chicago thinks so, because right now he's on the bench.....

Simmer down.

Browns149

@secondwave said:

Relative to some of those guys on that list, he's definitely not a dud. Weeden is a dud. Tebow was a dud. Big difference.

Simmer down.

I didn't say dud, but he's not good either

Mudfly

@secondwave said:

Simmer down.

Simmering just fine....still think he's a dud

Tour2ma

@westside-steve said:
You only mentioned the great good or undecideds. There's got to be some turds in the upper echelon.

Plenty... as well as a whole lotta "Who?"

Pick a link any link... or I could read and record the entire list, e-mail it to you...

You lazy fuck...

Tour2ma

@secondwave said:
Relative to some of those guys on that list, he's definitely not a dud. Weeden is a dud. Tebow was a dud. Big difference.

Agree... Cutler's no dud. He's a "couldabeen"... in the end they are even more destructive.

Lumbergh

Rule #1: Must not run the spread option. Eliminate all QBs who ran spread option in college, including Marcus Mariota (who will suck in the NFL). The spread option has fucked up all these stat comparisions.

Westside Steve

@tour2ma said:

Plenty... as well as a whole lotta "Who?"

Pick a link any link... or I could read and record the entire list, e-mail it to you...

You lazy fuck...

Oh since there are only a few listed I assumed the rest sucked or didn't count.

I'd try to cobble together a point from that, but as you say...

WSS

Tim Couch Pulls Out

NFL wins.

hoorta

@lumbergh said:
Rule #1: Must not run the spread option. Eliminate all QBs who ran spread option in college, including Marcus Mariota (who will suck in the NFL). The spread option has fucked up all these stat comparisions.

((()))) Love ya Beavers. Try not to gloat too much if DA wins the game today.

Our pal Shep said one of the best predictors is # of games played in college. No it isn't. Sure, you have guys like the Mannings and Rotlisberger- but there's a bunch of NFL bums who were 4 year starters- like Colt McCoy- or worse- who never did jack in the pros.