Trading up to #2 for QB Risky

The Gipper

On my survey thread I asked if you all would be willing to trade our #12, 19, and 43rd picks for the #2 pick to take Mariota (or, I guess Winston if he were there).

Per Draft Pick Trade Chart value, it would be about an even trade. The #2 is worth 2600 points, and #s 12, 19 and 43 are worth a combined 2545 ponts. A fourth/5th rounder could have to be thrown in to make up the points.

But, to me, it is risky on two levels: A. Because giving up those 3-4 picks means you do not have those resources to bolster other areas of need for this team, and B. because historically #2 overall QBs do NOT come out all that well. Here is the list of boom and bust QBs that have been take historically with the #2 overall pick:

Booms:

Sid Luckman

Earl Morrall

Norm Snead

Roman Gabriel

Bert Jones

Donovan McNabb

...and maybe RGIII (though if he doesn't improve, he could land on the following list)

Busts:

John Rauch

Adrian Burk

Bob Williams

Len McHan

George Izo

Pete Beathard

Rick Norton

Rick Mirer

Ryan Leaf

So more #2 overall QBs have sucked eggs than delivered them. Of course, a lot of those were in the "old days" ...but the ones in Italics have been taken since the 1970 merger. right now at best it is a 50/50 proposition. Browns are already batting .000 pretty much with their last 5 first round QB picks (JFF/Weeden/Quinn/Couch/Phipps)

miktoxic

unless you have a andrew luck CERTAINTY about a guy you don't make the move.

hoorta

I'll puke if they trade up for Mariota. He is not a sure bet- just "this year's model".

Far better to see if Johnny Rehab is a bust or not- if he follows the Wee-Done curve, next year is the time to go qb shopping.

Mark O

@hoorta said:

I'll puke if they trade up for Mariota. He is not a sure bet- just "this year's model".

Far better to see if Johnny Rehab is a bust or not- if he follows the Wee-Done curve, next year is the time to go qb shopping.

I'm with you. I wouldn't trade up for either QB. I'm ok drafting one of the 2nd tier guys later in the draft but i'm not trading up for either guy.

Mudfly

@hoorta said:
I'll puke if they trade up for Mariota.

Perfect!.....wouldn't change a word

miktoxic

12. shelton NT

19. dupree DE

43. williams TE

77. grayson QB

my dream draft right there.

thenew23

According to reports they already turned down that trade with the Titans. If the Titans pass on Mariota and we could trade a 1st and 2nd for the Redskuns pick, I'd be all for it...

The Gipper

@thenew23 said:
According to reports they already turned down that trade with the Titans. If the Titans pass on Mariota and we could trade a 1st and 2nd for the Redskuns pick, I'd be all for it...

Are you saying that the Titan offered to take #12/19/43 for #2....and the Browns rejected it? or is it all BS rumors?

Westside Steve

@thenew23 said:
According to reports they already turned down that trade with the Titans. If the Titans pass on Mariota and we could trade a 1st and 2nd for the Redskuns pick, I'd be all for it...

And remember exactly how the Redskins got that pick...

WSS

miktoxic

um, yeah, no. don't want to be the next 'redskins'.

thenew23

@westside-steve said:

And remember exactly how the Redskins got that pick...

WSS

If I remember correctly they gave up 3 1sts and 1 or 2 2nds... I never said I'd do that...

Westside Steve

@thenew23 said:
If I remember correctly they gave up 3 1sts and 1 or 2 2nds... I never said I'd do that...

Nope but I think rg3 had a lot more hype than Marcus Mariota the consolation prize in this quarterback Derby.

WSS

thenew23

@the-gipper said:
Are you saying that the Titan offered to take #12/19/43 for #2....and the Browns rejected it? or is it all BS rumors?

Reported by Tony Pauline of draftinsider.net on 4/22, "the Titans asked for 12, 19, and the Browns 2nd round pick to move to #2, to which the Browns said 'no'."

thenew23

@westside-steve said:

Nope but I think rg3 had a lot more hype than Marcus Mariota the consolation prize in this quarterback Derby.

WSS

RG3 was a one-season overhyped combine champion who got overrated, very quickly.

Mariota would've been a 1st round pick if he would've declared last year. He has been one of the highest rated QBs for the past 3 seasons, and has a career 105-14 TD to INT ratio... Consolation...?

Tour2ma

@miktoxic said:
unless you have a andrew luck CERTAINTY about a guy you don't make the move.

Picks for "certain" QBs are not traded.

MasterDog

"Risky QB"

Beside a few drafted number 1 overall, what QB isn't "risky" in a draft? Taking a step back, what player isn't "risky" in a NFL draft.

I think Marriota is going to be a star in this league. I can see it. He's got it all. I've labeled him Andrew Luck 2.0. Big, tall, strong, intelligent, fast as hell, good arm, not a "me" player, Film room junkie, a leader, not a socialite idiot and have that 'love' for the game. Got the face and look of a franchise player.

What is there NOT to like?

Then again, i'm a Brown's fan and guess what...Star QB + Browns franchise just don't mix.

The Gipper

@masterdog said:

"Risky QB"

Beside a few drafted number 1 overall, what QB isn't "risky" in a draft? Taking a step back, what player isn't "risky" in a NFL draft.

I think Marriota is going to be a star in this league. I can see it. He's got it all. I've labeled him Andrew Luck 2.0. Big, tall, strong, intelligent, fast as hell, good arm, not a "me" player, Film room junkie, a leader, not a socialite idiot and have that 'love' for the game. Got the face and look of a franchise player.

What is there NOT to like?

Then again, i'm a Brown's fan and guess what...Star QB + Browns franchise just don't mix.

I know, they are all risky....but I think in more recent years if you are taken #1 overall.....the QB has less of a chance to be a bust.

Here I have divided the QBs taken with the #1 overall pick into 3 categories: Busts, So So or Incomplete, Successes:

Busts:

Angelo Bertelli

Boley Dancewiscz

Harry Gilmer

Bobby Garrett

George Shaw

King Hill

Randy Duncan

Terry Baker

Jamarcus Russell

Note here that there was not a true pure bust of a QB with #1 between 1962 and 2007.

So So/Incomplete:

Billy Wade (won title with Bears)

Jack Concannon

Steve Bartkowski

Jeff George

Tim Couch

David Carr

Alex Smith

Matt Stafford

Sam Bradford

Successes:

Roman Gabriel

Joe Namath

Terry Bradshaw

Jim Plunkett

John Elway

Vinny Testaverde (by virtue of total career numbers)

Troy Aikman

Drew Bledsoe

Peyton Manning

Michael Vick (has had very productive career)

Carson Palmer

Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Andrew Luck (not too premature for these last two)

Scouting apparently vastly improved sometime in the mid 60s. Except for Billy Wade...who was OK to good....every #1 overall pick before Roman Gabriel was a complete bust. After Gabriel, only Jamarcus Russell can be called a complete bust.

Since then you have about a 2/3rd chance that a #1 overall will turn out successful and about a 95% chance of being somewhat viable.....and maybe a couple of those incompletes can rise up: Bradford/Stafford/even Smith?

#2 overalls are still 50/50 to be busts.

MasterDog

"Scouting apparently vastly improved sometime in the mid 60s."

With that said, i'm on board with trading up to grab Marriota.

gumby73

Still think the best place to move up is from 19. Softer Cost maybe and get the best talent opposite of 12 before it comes off the board.. 10 Rookies not making this squad IMO.. PS--If we give up all those picks for Mariota I would piss all of them off and with 2nd pick of the 2015 NFL Draft The Browns Select Leonard Williams to watch everyone run away from this Dude..

Axe

I still don't think either Winston or Mariotta are #1 & #2 overall material.. And it looks like my Bucs ARE going to take Winston..