Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
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Rumor is that the NY Mets have received the Cleveland Browns 2016 first round pick as compensation for DePodesta's rights LOL!
Rumor is that the NY Mets have received the Cleveland Browns 2016 first round pick as compensation for DePodesta's rights LOL!
They could use it!
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Baseball ain't football guys. There's a thing in the businesses world called paralysis by analysis.
Will those "advanced metrics" take into account character issues- Manziel, Gilbert? The bottom line is- are the guys football players? Metrics would have said pass on guys like Ray Lewis & Steve Largent (too slow), and take guys like Vernon Gholston & every other workout warrior you can think of. Just because you can run a 4.3 won't make you a great WR, right Willis Adams & Steve Holden? A lot of college tackles = Mike Junkin.
I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this."
So I obviously don't work in football, but you'd be really surprised how advanced metrics have gotten to take into account factors to determine personality. I work in Higher Education and work a lot with recruitment and retention. The software I use from time to time is simply mind blowing and I can't say I'm an expert on it. However, what it does is take into account a lot of details about a student to assign a point value to their fit and future with our campus. This includes background information including family income, hometown, any criminal activity, family size and a lot of other variables like that outside of the obvious grades and test scores. It determines a " personality value" based on that which combines with more traditional metrics in determining probability models. I'd say it is accurate 90% of the time in which students stay and which ones go.
It's super incredible stuff and is really cutting edge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys know all about it. I'm pretty intrigued but I'm admittedly biased heavily as well.
So I obviously don't work in football, but you'd be really surprised how advanced metrics have gotten to take into account factors to determine personality. I work in Higher Education and work a lot with recruitment and retention. The software I use from time to time is simply mind blowing and I can't say I'm an expert on it. However, what it does is take into account a lot of details about a student to assign a point value to their fit and future with our campus. This includes background information including family income, hometown, any criminal activity, family size and a lot of other variables like that outside of the obvious grades and test scores. It determines a " personality value" based on that which combines with more traditional metrics in determining probability models. I'd say it is accurate 90% of the time in which students stay and which ones go.
It's super incredible stuff and is really cutting edge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys know all about it. I'm pretty intrigued but I'm admittedly biased heavily as well.
My daughter will be looking for a job in the sports marketing and management area come about the middle of May. Can you do your analytics on her....to help her get a job?
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So I obviously don't work in football, but you'd be really surprised how advanced metrics have gotten to take into account factors to determine personality. I work in Higher Education and work a lot with recruitment and retention. The software I use from time to time is simply mind blowing and I can't say I'm an expert on it. However, what it does is take into account a lot of details about a student to assign a point value to their fit and future with our campus. This includes background information including family income, hometown, any criminal activity, family size and a lot of other variables like that outside of the obvious grades and test scores. It determines a " personality value" based on that which combines with more traditional metrics in determining probability models. I'd say it is accurate 90% of the time in which students stay and which ones go.
It's super incredible stuff and is really cutting edge, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys know all about it. I'm pretty intrigued but I'm admittedly biased heavily as well.
My daughter will be looking for a job in the sports marketing and management area come about the middle of May. Can you do your analytics on her....to help her get a job?
My daughter will be looking for a job in the sports marketing and management area come about the middle of May. Can you do your analytics on her....to help her get a job?
Tell her good luck and don't trust a single person she meets after school.
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Analytics is all about "The Mean". What good does it do to build a team based on player averages when the owner is blowing everything up every two years. Besides that while analytics can be a useful tool it doesn't work as well in football because of all the added variables.
Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt.
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I'll sit this one out until the dust settles- but as Princess Leila said in the first Star Wars "I have a bad feeling about this."
Im a little nervous about it too.....more mind can be better.....but how they arrive at things is the key.....here's how I see this developing....
Within their group, everyone has the opportunity(or responsibility) to bring proposals and opinions....
I dont think it will be all about analytics. Just part of it. And I see Sashi as the guy who will bring that part to the table. So his input will be analytics.
But, I think the Coach will bring(hopefully) a football mentality and the clear vision of the "type" of players needed.....mentally and physically....
And then the "GM"....ie: personnel guy.....is gonna bring the scouting info.......and his perspective on who's best, etc....
THEN.....it'll all get thrown on the table and, in a perfect world, all this info mashes up and everyone clearly agrees on who's best and then the picks are made.....
But we know better.....that wont happen....sooooooooo.....there are 3 ways the group will work....and it's gotta be one of these...
1) Is more or less a democracy...IE...they vote and majority wins......this would be normal practice, but certainly not consensus.....and who ever gets voted against in this structure, basically has his objections ignored.....so, for example, concerns raised by 1 guy about character issues might get set aside by 2 analytics guys in a vote system....and this is how you end up with a Gilbert or Manziel...
2) Comes from the top down.....meaning everyone brings their stuff to the table and they all discuss and agree....but the actual decision is still made by one guy....which is worse than the vote system, because it still requires one person to weigh, discard or choose what info to follow.....and if Shashi is that guy, he could have a bias toward analytics over what a coach or GM feels in his gut....
3) True consensus(which is what I thing Jimmy wants)....is when everybody agrees. Period. So the discussion MUST continue until there is complete agreement on whats best for the Browns. This is hard to do and often requires discarding polarized options and moving on to the next one. Now, Im certain, a consensus group would NOT have picked johnny(for example). Too many objections, so I say they would have moved on. Tho, Gilbert might still have been picked, as there were no early warnings on him.....
So.....lots of words here....sorry bout that....but I think by hearing Jimmys words....a consensus is what he prefers and he's REALLY trying to pick people who have the lack of ego, along with the intellect and patience and maturity to operate this kind of system.....
Thats a tough trick.....
It can work tho....they just need good information from the analytics, scouts and their coach and the ability to work together....
But...be warned.....concensus ALWAYS plays it safe.....always......and that can be less than exciting.....
Im a little nervous about it too.....more mind can be better.....but how they arrive at things is the key.....here's how I see this developing....
Within their group, everyone has the opportunity(or responsibility) to bring proposals and opinions....
I dont think it will be all about analytics. Just part of it. And I see Sashi as the guy who will bring that part to the table. So his input will be analytics.
But, I think the Coach will bring(hopefully) a football mentality and the clear vision of the "type" of players needed.....mentally and physically....
And then the "GM"....ie: personnel guy.....is gonna bring the scouting info.......and his perspective on who's best, etc....
THEN.....it'll all get thrown on the table and, in a perfect world, all this info mashes up and everyone clearly agrees on who's best and then the picks are made.....
But we know better.....that wont happen....sooooooooo.....there are 3 ways the group will work....and it's gotta be one of these...
1) Is more or less a democracy...IE...they vote and majority wins......this would be normal practice, but certainly not consensus.....and who ever gets voted against in this structure, basically has his objections ignored.....so, for example, concerns raised by 1 guy about character issues might get set aside by 2 analytics guys in a vote system....and this is how you end up with a Gilbert or Manziel...
2) Comes from the top down.....meaning everyone brings their stuff to the table and they all discuss and agree....but the actual decision is still made by one guy....which is worse than the vote system, because it still requires one person to weigh, discard or choose what info to follow.....and if Shashi is that guy, he could have a bias toward analytics over what a coach or GM feels in his gut....
3) True consensus(which is what I thing Jimmy wants)....is when everybody agrees. Period. So the discussion MUST continue until there is complete agreement on whats best for the Browns. This is hard to do and often requires discarding polarized options and moving on to the next one. Now, Im certain, a consensus group would NOT have picked johnny(for example). Too many objections, so I say they would have moved on. Tho, Gilbert might still have been picked, as there were no early warnings on him.....
So.....lots of words here....sorry bout that....but I think by hearing Jimmys words....a consensus is what he prefers and he's REALLY trying to pick people who have the lack of ego, along with the intellect and patience and maturity to operate this kind of system.....
Thats a tough trick.....
It can work tho....they just need good information from the analytics, scouts and their coach and the ability to work together....
But...be warned.....concensus ALWAYS plays it safe.....always......and that can be less than exciting.....
Look.....the process works on Project Runway to determine who they kick of the program and who they keep and who they declare a winner.
So....if a bunch of models, gay designers, and clothing bitches can come to a consensus about that...why can't these guys come together in a consensus about players and strategies?
(see, now you are going to have that image in mind: Sashi, Podestra, Coach X, GM Y....sitting on their stools and debating who will be aufed and who will stay)
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Analytics is all about "The Mean". What good does it do to build a team based on player averages when the owner is blowing everything up every two years. Besides that while analytics can be a useful tool it doesn't work as well in football because of all the added variables.
Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt.
Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt.
I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables.
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Per analytics: No team should ever punt.. How many pro teams never punt.
I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables.
I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables.
Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
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I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables.
Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
I am going to read the shit out of this later.
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If you guys want to corner the market on Analytics guys, I hear Phil Emery is available
Maybe he can even bring in Marc Trestman to "grow the man".
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I would bet my car that stats would tell you to punt, I really hope that's a joke I'm not getting. Also, please see my above comment about how statistics do indeed consider added variables.
Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something.
Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times.
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Keep your car. Analytics is a tool it's not the end all be all to base decisions on. I attached one of several studies on punting
The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something.
Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times.
The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something.
Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times.
What's funny is your defending analytics until it goes against something you believe to be common sense. So analytics is good as long as it supports your view. For the record I think it's crazy to never punt as well. The whole point was show analytics is only a tool to help make decisions not the sole reference in making them. I'm fine with hiring analytics people I just don't want to build a team using it as my main decision maker "like Haslam might". I fear that he's trying again to prove he's smarter than everyone in the league. Which can only end badly.
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The funny part is I've actually skimmed that paper before and it's really pretty interesting to someone like me. Of course it's a tool, but what you said was just wrong unless again I missed a joke or something.
Also, I'd again hope you consider that statistical models can take into accounts literally thousands of variables with the programs we have nowadays. Nothing will ever replace the human element, but a computer and very smart people can sure as shit predict it pretty closely a lot of times.
What's funny is your defending analytics until it goes against something you believe to be common sense. So analytics is good as long as it supports your view. For the record I think it's crazy to never punt as well. The whole point was show analytics is only a tool to help make decisions not the sole reference in making them. I'm fine with hiring analytics people I just don't want to build a team using it as my main decision maker "like Haslam might". I fear that he's trying again to prove he's smarter than everyone in the league. Which can only end badly.
What's funny is your defending analytics until it goes against something you believe to be common sense. So analytics is good as long as it supports your view. For the record I think it's crazy to never punt as well. The whole point was show analytics is only a tool to help make decisions not the sole reference in making them. I'm fine with hiring analytics people I just don't want to build a team using it as my main decision maker "like Haslam might". I fear that he's trying again to prove he's smarter than everyone in the league. Which can only end badly.
What? I really don't understand what you're saying. Look, I don't look at the models these guys do. but for example I'm quite certain if the game is tied 0-0 in the first quarter and your team is facing a 4th and 20 from your own 5, the model would spit out a 99.9999% opinion to punt the ball. That would qualify in stats as "common sense"
I work with stats every day albeit in a way, way different field. I am biased which I admit, but I see where stats can heavily inform opinions in a positive manner all the time. It's crazy and doesn't make sense even to me sometimes, but we admit students that on paper shouldn't be in the program but excel. Who knows what Haslam is really thinking hiring these guys but you should resign yourself to the idea that stats and analysis will play heavily into decisions. Of course stats can be wrong, but the Browns certainly haven't gotten much right up until today right? Of course this stuff can't be the only way to make decisions, but it can really inform decisions. It'll be very, very interesting to see how it plays out because if the Brownies finally get a break it could be the start of a new wave of thinking in the game.
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I think use of analytic's as a tool for talent evaluation is valuable in many businesses including obviously baseball and football. I think it has to be tempered and "massaged" if you will by common sense and experience. In our business of late we have used analytic's heavily in assessing new commercial hires. Unfortunately we use it somewhat in a vacuum with the final checks and balances (interviews) done by inexperienced folks. The results so far have been less than stellar.
I am hoping we soon add some very experienced strong football guys into the mix. It is going to be essential. I think if we do this may be a very exciting chapter in Browns history and maybe even finally an arrow up in our abysmal drafting history. I do however have concerns with the whole reporting structure.
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I like the idea in theory. I'll reserve the right to shit on it if it fails in practice.
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What's funny is your defending analytics until it goes against something you believe to be common sense. So analytics is good as long as it supports your view. For the record I think it's crazy to never punt as well. The whole point was show analytics is only a tool to help make decisions not the sole reference in making them. I'm fine with hiring analytics people I just don't want to build a team using it as my main decision maker "like Haslam might". I fear that he's trying again to prove he's smarter than everyone in the league. Which can only end badly.
What? I really don't understand what you're saying. Look, I don't look at the models these guys do. but for example I'm quite certain if the game is tied 0-0 in the first quarter and your team is facing a 4th and 20 from your own 5, the model would spit out a 99.9999% opinion to punt the ball. That would qualify in stats as "common sense"
I work with stats every day albeit in a way, way different field. I am biased which I admit, but I see where stats can heavily inform opinions in a positive manner all the time. It's crazy and doesn't make sense even to me sometimes, but we admit students that on paper shouldn't be in the program but excel. Who knows what Haslam is really thinking hiring these guys but you should resign yourself to the idea that stats and analysis will play heavily into decisions. Of course stats can be wrong, but the Browns certainly haven't gotten much right up until today right? Of course this stuff can't be the only way to make decisions, but it can really inform decisions. It'll be very, very interesting to see how it plays out because if the Brownies finally get a break it could be the start of a new wave of thinking in the game.
What? I really don't understand what you're saying. Look, I don't look at the models these guys do. but for example I'm quite certain if the game is tied 0-0 in the first quarter and your team is facing a 4th and 20 from your own 5, the model would spit out a 99.9999% opinion to punt the ball. That would qualify in stats as "common sense"
I work with stats every day albeit in a way, way different field. I am biased which I admit, but I see where stats can heavily inform opinions in a positive manner all the time. It's crazy and doesn't make sense even to me sometimes, but we admit students that on paper shouldn't be in the program but excel. Who knows what Haslam is really thinking hiring these guys but you should resign yourself to the idea that stats and analysis will play heavily into decisions. Of course stats can be wrong, but the Browns certainly haven't gotten much right up until today right? Of course this stuff can't be the only way to make decisions, but it can really inform decisions. It'll be very, very interesting to see how it plays out because if the Brownies finally get a break it could be the start of a new wave of thinking in the game.
I agree with you in that common sense would say to punt, but that's not really the way it's figured in this point of view. It's more of an expected points situation. And that's where things get wacky, but yet also sort of... make sense?
In the most basic of rationality, the further in your own territory you are, the higher chance the other team has to score off of your punt. For instance, punting from your own 5 would give the opposing team better field position than, say, punting from your own 35. Better field position then leads to a higher expected point value for the other team.
Add in the fact that punting yields an expected return of 0 points for you, where going for it yields an expected return of > 0 points, and you can see why the case can be made to never punt...and why it would actually make less sense to punt the further in your territory you get backed up.
This is just one situation of how analytics can be completely skewed.
Of course, common sense would dictate that you punt in that situation. But looking at the expected point values, it would actually make more sense to go for it. That's because most of these models (at least the ones that I've read so far) don't account for turnovers as negative points.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
Oakland A's haven't won squat under Billy Bean.
Unless you count division pennants...
OK, so, tell us why. Not a name I know.
Price is the Mets' prized 3rd baseman.
Jimmy is about as corporate as it gets......and Id say he's trying to build what most would call a consensus decision making team...
Ill add that if Jimmy is in any way a part of the group...being owner and the boss.... he will pollute the integrity of the system and prevent true consensus from occurring.....(can he let them do their thing....alone????)
So.....lots of words here....sorry bout that....but I think by hearing Jimmys words....a consensus is what he prefers and he's REALLY trying to pick people who have the lack of ego, along with the intellect and patience and maturity to operate this kind of system.....
Really good summaries... I'll take a stab at pulling them together.
The trick is to drive consensus without tipping the scale one way or another. But there are two roles that are incapable of doing this: the boss (Haslam) and a key stakeholder (Sashi)... and I don't give a shit what the latter's ego level is.
Only a skilled mediator/facilitator with no skin in the game can drive consensus. Who is this guy in this org? It could have, maybe should have, been Sashi, but he was given a direct report who is a key player, The Scoutmaster.
And Haslam just made it worse IMO...
Yesterday he set up Sashi to be his "strategic guy"... praised him for his strategic approach, ability to develop strategy, etc., etc. Sashi and strategy were mentioned together at least three times in Jimmah's presser.
Today? Haslam names Podesta to be Chief Strategy Officer... and makes him direct report #4 to boot. Odd title for "the metrics guy"... and an even stranger Org Chart addition for an Owner/President who seemed unwilling to intervene between 2 of his 3 direct reports in the prior org.
How does he not pollute the process?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I'm hopeful this works but the analytics say we'll be here again in two years.
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What? I really don't understand what you're saying. Look, I don't look at the models these guys do. but for example I'm quite certain if the game is tied 0-0 in the first quarter and your team is facing a 4th and 20 from your own 5, the model would spit out a 99.9999% opinion to punt the ball. That would qualify in stats as "common sense"
I work with stats every day albeit in a way, way different field. I am biased which I admit, but I see where stats can heavily inform opinions in a positive manner all the time. It's crazy and doesn't make sense even to me sometimes, but we admit students that on paper shouldn't be in the program but excel. Who knows what Haslam is really thinking hiring these guys but you should resign yourself to the idea that stats and analysis will play heavily into decisions. Of course stats can be wrong, but the Browns certainly haven't gotten much right up until today right? Of course this stuff can't be the only way to make decisions, but it can really inform decisions. It'll be very, very interesting to see how it plays out because if the Brownies finally get a break it could be the start of a new wave of thinking in the game.
I agree with you in that common sense would say to punt, but that's not really the way it's figured in this point of view. It's more of an expected points situation. And that's where things get wacky, but yet also sort of... make sense?
In the most basic of rationality, the further in your own territory you are, the higher chance the other team has to score off of your punt. For instance, punting from your own 5 would give the opposing team better field position than, say, punting from your own 35. Better field position then leads to a higher expected point value for the other team.
Add in the fact that punting yields an expected return of 0 points for you, where going for it yields an expected return of > 0 points, and you can see why the case can be made to never punt...and why it would actually make less sense to punt the further in your territory you get backed up.
This is just one situation of how analytics can be completely skewed.
Of course, common sense would dictate that you punt in that situation. But looking at the expected point values, it would actually make more sense to go for it. That's because most of these models (at least the ones that I've read so far) don't account for turnovers as negative points.
Of course, common sense would dictate that you punt in that situation. But looking at the expected point values, it would actually make more sense to go for it. That's because most of these models (at least the ones that I've read so far) don't account for turnovers as negative points.
Interesting, that would be really odd to me that turnovers wouldn't factor in a negative expected points value. I really don't know anything about the models they use though-I get that at a base level but it seems the model could account for that.
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