Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
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Yea what we're setting up isn't anything like Al Davis had.
It's probably the closest to what the Patriots have, albeit a bit more people involved and a bit more convoluted sounding.
To me, I think DePodesta was the missing piece that makes this whole thing make sense.
Sashimi Brown running football ops and doing analytics? Not a lot of sense - but bringing in this guy too definitely paints the picture a bit more whole.
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Not sure if this has been posted already...but I read this and I'm a bit more encouraged.....
Haslam has been looking for answers, mostly in vain, as Browns owner.
The first thing you have to do is get out of your head Jonah Hill’s Peter Brand character in the Moneyball movie. Overweight, unathletic and socially awkward, Hill played a character based on DePodesta and intended to use DePodesta’s name. But the role was such a sloppy, inaccurate caricature that DePodesta insisted his name be removed from the script. (DePodesta actually was a letter-winner on the 1994 Harvard football team as a wide receiver, listed at 5-9, 160 pounds.)
Moneyball is the well told if selective narrative of how the Oakland Athletics used analytics—much of it driven by DePodesta/Brand—to gain an edge on their competition, never mind that Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, three aces in their prime, were starting about 100 games a year for the A’s. Oakland hired DePodesta from Cleveland, where analytics had been in full bloom, and where the franchise was a hothouse of front-office talent.
• WHO’LL COACH THE BROWNS? Peter King weighs in on the best fits for Cleveland, other coaching openings
From 1998 to 2008, the Indians employed 10 current or future general managers—John Hart, Dan O’Dowd, Mark Shapiro, Byrnes, DePodesta, Neal Huntington, Chris Antonetti, Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen and Mike Chernoff—as well as past and future managers Bud Black, John Farrell, Terry Francona and Buck Showalter.
The Indians of the mid-’90s were one of the first clubs to establish sophisticated video advance scouting systems. Around the same time, they expanded their pro scouting system to include more detailed reports on all minor league players, and soon began using statistical analysis to supplement those reports.
In 1998, for instance, Byrnes, then the assistant director of scouting, and DePodesta, then an assistant in baseball operations, used those reports to scout for hidden gems in the minor league systems of other organizations. They found in the Detroit Tigers system a 26-year-old outfielder who had never advanced beyond Double-A and had very little power. They noticed that he did, however, show a consistent knack for getting on base—then an undervalued skill.
The player’s Double-A on-base percentage was .434 on June 24, 1998. That’s when the Indians traded slugger Geronimo Berroa to get pitcher Tim Worrell and this speedy outfielder who was dead-ended in the Tigers system: Dave Roberts. Though Roberts had a tough time cracking the talented Indians’ lineup, he did go on to play 10 seasons in the major leagues, had the most famous and significant stolen base in Boston Red Sox history and was recently hired by Byrnes’ Dodgers to be their manager. (Berroa was out of baseball in three years, having hit just two home runs after the trade.)
After Oakland, DePodesta had a run as Dodgers general manager that lasted only 20 months before he was fired, a four-year run as an executive with the Padres, and his five-year stint with the Mets. One colleague with the Mets, who said he was not surprised by DePodesta leaving for football, described him as someone “always looking for a challenge,” who was “not just a baseball guy.” He characterized him as a brilliant systems analyst who “does not like confrontations,” a trait that may have worked against him in his tenure with the Dodgers.
With the Browns, however, as a football source pointed out, Haslam smartly empowered DePodesta in what has been a chaotic organizational flow chart by having him report directly to the owner. By answering only to Haslam, DePodesta, an NFL outsider, now has unquestioned authority and can designate others to handle day-to-day confrontations. It was not immediately clear if DePodesta would move his family to Cleveland or continue to use the San Diego area as his home.
DePodesta’s first big move will be the hiring of a head coach. Based on the model used by analytically inclined baseball teams, he is likely to hire a coach who may not have much experience but who is comfortable implementing the business practices and systems endorsed if not created by the front office (though not necessarily offensive and defensive schemes). That’s a sharp turn from the old-school football model in which the coach sets the culture. The manager/coach as key conduit rather than majordomo—former Rays and current Cubs manager Joe Maddon is a prime such figure—was a vital component in Haslam’s “best policies” tour.
DePodesta was VP of player development and scouting for the Mets for five seasons.
Photo: Paul J. Bereswill/AP
DePodesta was VP of player development and scouting for the Mets for five seasons.
In The Patient Will See You Now, Topol, the director of Scripps Translational Science Institute in San Diego, argued for a very different future in medicine, one in which smartphones replace doctor visits for diagnostic tasks, and big data empowers providers to better treat and even cure disease. According to the Dec. 15 release from STSI, the book resonated with DePodesta because he was “looking to apply his skills and knowledge to a field with global impact.”
The announcement of his hiring was billed as “Moneyball Comes to Medicine.”
Explained DePodesta in the release, “In disciplines as disparate as baseball, financial services, trucking and retail, people are realizing the power of data to help make better decisions. Medicine is just beginning to explore this opportunity, but it faces many of the same barriers that existed in those other sectors—deeply held traditions, monolithic organizational and operational structures, and a psychological resistance to change.” (DePodesta interestingly used trucking— Haslam’s business—as one of his examples.)
Deeply held traditions … monolithic organizational and operational structures … psychological resistance to change … DePodesta might well have been talking about the National Football League.
• A REVOLVING DOOR IN THE FACTORY OF SADNESS: Jenny Vrentas on the Browns’ perpetual search for stability
He knows he will encounter resistance, even if most of it will be external. The information revolution in football is underway, but it lags behind the one in baseball, which is fully populated with types like DePodesta who have long entered the next stage: synthesizing the information with on-field knowledge and observation. Some day, for instance, just as we wonder now why baseball teams used to play their defense straight up for every batter instead of shifting, we might look back and wonder why teams punted away the football so darn much.
Immediately, though, DePodesta’s challenge is not how the Browns play football as much as it is how the organization is structured and how it evaluates, acquires and develops talent in a holistic manner. With his year scouring for information, Haslam understood that his Browns, long a disorganized mess, were in serious need of organizational repair. And when he found his man, he might well have borrowed from DePodesta’s summer reading list to explain to him the challenge ahead: “The patient will see you now.” -
I'm not sure it matters how much he invests. How many millions were paid out this year to coaches that weren't even with the team. If we can say Haslam has one redeeming quality. It's he isn't afraid to throw money at a problem.
Well, as long as you can talk a good line of shit you can bamboozle a rich old idiot.I'm not sure it matters how much he invests. How many millions were paid out this year to coaches that weren't even with the team. If we can say Haslam has one redeeming quality. It's he isn't afraid to throw money at a problem.
It's probably easier what are you know anything about the subject or not because whatever you make up sounds good to him.
Damn, that's a nice codpiece Emperor.
WSS
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Yea what we're setting up isn't anything like Al Davis had.
It's probably the closest to what the Patriots have, albeit a bit more people involved and a bit more convoluted sounding.
To me, I think DePodesta was the missing piece that makes this whole thing make sense.
Sashimi Brown running football ops and doing analytics? Not a lot of sense - but bringing in this guy too definitely paints the picture a bit more whole.
It's probably the closest to what the Patriots have, albeit a bit more people involved and a bit more convoluted sounding.
Everything is easy when an organization is unstressed... and can you name a less stressed organization than the Patriots? Even piled atop each other all the of "Gates" don't add up to back-to-back losing seasons.
So this model, which as you point out we are only "close to" (and not really that close), has never been stress tested. Odds are great that it could survive almost anything now, but in year's 2 and 3?
Not sure if this has been posted already...but I read this and I'm a bit more encouraged.....
==========================================================================
"With the Browns, however, as a football source pointed out, Haslam smartly empowered DePodesta in what has been a chaotic organizational flow chart by having him report directly to the owner. By answering only to Haslam, DePodesta, an NFL outsider, now has unquestioned authority and can designate others to handle day-to-day confrontations. It was not immediately clear if DePodesta would move his family to Cleveland or continue to use the San Diego area as his home.
He knows he will encounter resistance... Immediately, though, DePodesta’s challenge is not how the Browns play football as much as it is how the organization is structured and how it evaluates, acquires and develops talent in a holistic manner."
Was a good read... except for the depressing part about the Indians. (Any hint as to why that once leading analytics club has fallen on hard times?)
But once again the Organizational Dynamics as projected in the article are just off... but I'll put that harp away. At least the external resistance mentioned for some reason is a non-factor.
The saving grace for the new org is the honeymoon factor... if anywhere near the right people are hired and involved in developing the org, then should get about an 18-month grace period. If someone is truly monitoring and shepherding the process, then there's a chance for it.
But not seeing Podesto as that guy. The process is more than analytics and will require a full-time presence, not a SoCal commuter.
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Mods,
I think this is different enough to stand on its own for a couple days anyway.
We've (or at least I've) been focusing on Podesta bringing a sabermetric sieve to our scouting process. That was before I came across the following article.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
===============================================================================
Analytics, Technocrats, & the Distinction Between Talent Evaluation and Resource Allocation
Posted on January 6, 2016 by Bryce Johnston
Earlier today the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta away from the New York Mets to assume the newly created role of Chief Strategy Officer. As a key figure in Moneyball the book and the basis for Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball the movie, DePodesta is closely associated with sports analytics. Because of DePodesta’s association with analytics and the fact that his experience as an executive lies in baseball, the reactions to this hire were, unsurprisingly, quite strong.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports: “The Paul DePodesta hire could be revolutionary. We’re about to find out, truly, for better or worse, whether advanced analytics works in NFL.”
- Louis Riddick of ESPN: “There is a place for objective/data driven analysis to co-exist with the largely subjective process of football team building. But it will NEVER replace it. Learn the game. First. The popularity of the sport has made many wish they could objectify the game because they are either unwilling or unable to learn the game.”
- Albert Breer of NFL Network: “I have my doubts about the effectiveness of analytics in football. But maybe I’m like the old Moneyball scout grading guys on their gf’s.”
More importantly, I think the reactions of league observers may be misplaced as a result of conflating the two primary decision-making processes that each front office must continually undertake. The first decision-making process resolves around determining which players are better than other players. This is the talent evaluation process. The talent evaluation process can be performed subjectively (scouting/film study), objectively (analytics) or based on a combination of the two. The second decision-making process resolves around determining which price to pay (in terms of salary cap space and/or draft picks) to acquire the contractual right to the performance of a given player. This is the resource allocation process. The resource allocation process involves executing transactions on the basis of the results of the talent evaluation process. Ideally, each individual in a football operations department should have a clear role supporting one of these two processes, based on the skills and experience of the given individual.
Most NFL General Managers are hired due to their perceived expertise in the talent evaluation process. They are typically “football guys” who have risen through the ranks of scouting departments and have developed a reputation for being able to identify talented players more effectively than their peers. Most, however, do not appear to have any discernable claim to expertise in the resource allocation process. A career spent playing, studying and/or coaching football does not prepare oneself to efficiently allocate $150 million worth of salary cap space and numerous draft picks across dozens of roster spots while competing against 31 opponents under conditions of CBA-enforced scarcity of resources. The two processes require completely different skill sets, but the NFL has historically operated as a technocracy in which scouting technocrats typically perform both roles.
League observers seem to be under the impression that the primary motive for the Browns hiring DePodesta is to convert the organization from employing a subjective talent evaluation process to an objective talent evaluation process. In other words, to cause the organization to bring analytics and scouting onto equal footing. While this may be part of the motivation for the hire, I suspect that the primary motivation was to secure the services of an executive with a claim to expertise related to the resource allocation process. DePodesta would seem to fit this description. The thesis of Moneyball, after all, was that a team can gain a competitive advantage by developing methods to allocate its resources more efficiently than other teams.
If this is the case, DePodesta can make a positive impact on the Browns without making any changes to the talent evaluation process (although I do not doubt that he will make changes). Scouting and film study can continue to reign supreme over quantification of performance and talent. The key difference will be that after hearing the Browns’ scouts explain why think Player X is better than Player Y and how much better they think Player X is than Player Y, DePodesta will have the authority to decide if the price necessary to acquire Player X is worth the incremental cost as compared to the price necessary to acquire Player Y. In my view, one of the primary causes for Chip Kelly’s downfall was that he possessed authority over both the talent evaluation process and the resource allocation process, but seemed to ignore the questions demanded of the resource allocation process and instead favored his technocratic talent evaluation judgments.
DePodesta’s title – Chief Strategy Officer – is telling. If the Browns hired DePodesta to elevate analytics to an even footing with scouting, or even to largely replace scouting with analytics, they could have easily given him a more traditional title such as General Manager or President of Football Operations. These titles would have indicated that he is filling a familiar role, but would perform such role differently. Instead, they gave him a novel title to, I suspect, emphasize that he is performing a new role. As such, I think this move is less about altering the methods of the talent evaluation process and more about elevating the resource allocation process to a position of supremacy within the organization. I predict that if the Browns experience success during DePodesta’s tenure, the result will not be that technocrats lose their talent evaluation jobs to analytically inclined executives, but rather that analytically inclined executives will step into organizational structures as the bosses of the technocrats. Football lifers should determine who can block and tackle, but hedge fund managers, CFOs, and corporate lawyers should make the final decisions as to asset management and risk allotment.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Bryce Johnston is the creator of Commitment Index and the co-creator of Expected Contract Value. Bryce earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected] or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Mods,
I think this is different enough to stand on its own for a couple days anyway.
We've (or at least I've) been focusing on Podesta bringing a sabermetric sieve to our scouting process. That was before I came across the following article.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
===============================================================================
Analytics, Technocrats, & the Distinction Between Talent Evaluation and Resource Allocation
Posted on January 6, 2016 by Bryce Johnston
Earlier today the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta away from the New York Mets to assume the newly created role of Chief Strategy Officer. As a key figure in Moneyball the book and the basis for Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball the movie, DePodesta is closely associated with sports analytics. Because of DePodesta’s association with analytics and the fact that his experience as an executive lies in baseball, the reactions to this hire were, unsurprisingly, quite strong.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports: “The Paul DePodesta hire could be revolutionary. We’re about to find out, truly, for better or worse, whether advanced analytics works in NFL.”
- Louis Riddick of ESPN: “There is a place for objective/data driven analysis to co-exist with the largely subjective process of football team building. But it will NEVER replace it. Learn the game. First. The popularity of the sport has made many wish they could objectify the game because they are either unwilling or unable to learn the game.”
- Albert Breer of NFL Network: “I have my doubts about the effectiveness of analytics in football. But maybe I’m like the old Moneyball scout grading guys on their gf’s.”
More importantly, I think the reactions of league observers may be misplaced as a result of conflating the two primary decision-making processes that each front office must continually undertake. The first decision-making process resolves around determining which players are better than other players. This is the talent evaluation process. The talent evaluation process can be performed subjectively (scouting/film study), objectively (analytics) or based on a combination of the two. The second decision-making process resolves around determining which price to pay (in terms of salary cap space and/or draft picks) to acquire the contractual right to the performance of a given player. This is the resource allocation process. The resource allocation process involves executing transactions on the basis of the results of the talent evaluation process. Ideally, each individual in a football operations department should have a clear role supporting one of these two processes, based on the skills and experience of the given individual.
Most NFL General Managers are hired due to their perceived expertise in the talent evaluation process. They are typically “football guys” who have risen through the ranks of scouting departments and have developed a reputation for being able to identify talented players more effectively than their peers. Most, however, do not appear to have any discernable claim to expertise in the resource allocation process. A career spent playing, studying and/or coaching football does not prepare oneself to efficiently allocate $150 million worth of salary cap space and numerous draft picks across dozens of roster spots while competing against 31 opponents under conditions of CBA-enforced scarcity of resources. The two processes require completely different skill sets, but the NFL has historically operated as a technocracy in which scouting technocrats typically perform both roles.
League observers seem to be under the impression that the primary motive for the Browns hiring DePodesta is to convert the organization from employing a subjective talent evaluation process to an objective talent evaluation process. In other words, to cause the organization to bring analytics and scouting onto equal footing. While this may be part of the motivation for the hire, I suspect that the primary motivation was to secure the services of an executive with a claim to expertise related to the resource allocation process. DePodesta would seem to fit this description. The thesis of Moneyball, after all, was that a team can gain a competitive advantage by developing methods to allocate its resources more efficiently than other teams.
If this is the case, DePodesta can make a positive impact on the Browns without making any changes to the talent evaluation process (although I do not doubt that he will make changes). Scouting and film study can continue to reign supreme over quantification of performance and talent. The key difference will be that after hearing the Browns’ scouts explain why think Player X is better than Player Y and how much better they think Player X is than Player Y, DePodesta will have the authority to decide if the price necessary to acquire Player X is worth the incremental cost as compared to the price necessary to acquire Player Y. In my view, one of the primary causes for Chip Kelly’s downfall was that he possessed authority over both the talent evaluation process and the resource allocation process, but seemed to ignore the questions demanded of the resource allocation process and instead favored his technocratic talent evaluation judgments.
DePodesta’s title – Chief Strategy Officer – is telling. If the Browns hired DePodesta to elevate analytics to an even footing with scouting, or even to largely replace scouting with analytics, they could have easily given him a more traditional title such as General Manager or President of Football Operations. These titles would have indicated that he is filling a familiar role, but would perform such role differently. Instead, they gave him a novel title to, I suspect, emphasize that he is performing a new role. As such, I think this move is less about altering the methods of the talent evaluation process and more about elevating the resource allocation process to a position of supremacy within the organization. I predict that if the Browns experience success during DePodesta’s tenure, the result will not be that technocrats lose their talent evaluation jobs to analytically inclined executives, but rather that analytically inclined executives will step into organizational structures as the bosses of the technocrats. Football lifers should determine who can block and tackle, but hedge fund managers, CFOs, and corporate lawyers should make the final decisions as to asset management and risk allotment.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Bryce Johnston is the creator of Commitment Index and the co-creator of Expected Contract Value. Bryce earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected] or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Mods,
I think this is different enough to stand on its own for a couple days anyway.
... or just merge the piss out of it so it's gets no attention...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
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Mods,
I think this is different enough to stand on its own for a couple days anyway.
We've (or at least I've) been focusing on Podesta bringing a sabermetric sieve to our scouting process. That was before I came across the following article.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
===============================================================================
Analytics, Technocrats, & the Distinction Between Talent Evaluation and Resource Allocation
Posted on January 6, 2016 by Bryce Johnston
Earlier today the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta away from the New York Mets to assume the newly created role of Chief Strategy Officer. As a key figure in Moneyball the book and the basis for Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball the movie, DePodesta is closely associated with sports analytics. Because of DePodesta’s association with analytics and the fact that his experience as an executive lies in baseball, the reactions to this hire were, unsurprisingly, quite strong.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports: “The Paul DePodesta hire could be revolutionary. We’re about to find out, truly, for better or worse, whether advanced analytics works in NFL.”
- Louis Riddick of ESPN: “There is a place for objective/data driven analysis to co-exist with the largely subjective process of football team building. But it will NEVER replace it. Learn the game. First. The popularity of the sport has made many wish they could objectify the game because they are either unwilling or unable to learn the game.”
- Albert Breer of NFL Network: “I have my doubts about the effectiveness of analytics in football. But maybe I’m like the old Moneyball scout grading guys on their gf’s.”
More importantly, I think the reactions of league observers may be misplaced as a result of conflating the two primary decision-making processes that each front office must continually undertake. The first decision-making process resolves around determining which players are better than other players. This is the talent evaluation process. The talent evaluation process can be performed subjectively (scouting/film study), objectively (analytics) or based on a combination of the two. The second decision-making process resolves around determining which price to pay (in terms of salary cap space and/or draft picks) to acquire the contractual right to the performance of a given player. This is the resource allocation process. The resource allocation process involves executing transactions on the basis of the results of the talent evaluation process. Ideally, each individual in a football operations department should have a clear role supporting one of these two processes, based on the skills and experience of the given individual.
Most NFL General Managers are hired due to their perceived expertise in the talent evaluation process. They are typically “football guys” who have risen through the ranks of scouting departments and have developed a reputation for being able to identify talented players more effectively than their peers. Most, however, do not appear to have any discernable claim to expertise in the resource allocation process. A career spent playing, studying and/or coaching football does not prepare oneself to efficiently allocate $150 million worth of salary cap space and numerous draft picks across dozens of roster spots while competing against 31 opponents under conditions of CBA-enforced scarcity of resources. The two processes require completely different skill sets, but the NFL has historically operated as a technocracy in which scouting technocrats typically perform both roles.
League observers seem to be under the impression that the primary motive for the Browns hiring DePodesta is to convert the organization from employing a subjective talent evaluation process to an objective talent evaluation process. In other words, to cause the organization to bring analytics and scouting onto equal footing. While this may be part of the motivation for the hire, I suspect that the primary motivation was to secure the services of an executive with a claim to expertise related to the resource allocation process. DePodesta would seem to fit this description. The thesis of Moneyball, after all, was that a team can gain a competitive advantage by developing methods to allocate its resources more efficiently than other teams.
If this is the case, DePodesta can make a positive impact on the Browns without making any changes to the talent evaluation process (although I do not doubt that he will make changes). Scouting and film study can continue to reign supreme over quantification of performance and talent. The key difference will be that after hearing the Browns’ scouts explain why think Player X is better than Player Y and how much better they think Player X is than Player Y, DePodesta will have the authority to decide if the price necessary to acquire Player X is worth the incremental cost as compared to the price necessary to acquire Player Y. In my view, one of the primary causes for Chip Kelly’s downfall was that he possessed authority over both the talent evaluation process and the resource allocation process, but seemed to ignore the questions demanded of the resource allocation process and instead favored his technocratic talent evaluation judgments.
DePodesta’s title – Chief Strategy Officer – is telling. If the Browns hired DePodesta to elevate analytics to an even footing with scouting, or even to largely replace scouting with analytics, they could have easily given him a more traditional title such as General Manager or President of Football Operations. These titles would have indicated that he is filling a familiar role, but would perform such role differently. Instead, they gave him a novel title to, I suspect, emphasize that he is performing a new role. As such, I think this move is less about altering the methods of the talent evaluation process and more about elevating the resource allocation process to a position of supremacy within the organization. I predict that if the Browns experience success during DePodesta’s tenure, the result will not be that technocrats lose their talent evaluation jobs to analytically inclined executives, but rather that analytically inclined executives will step into organizational structures as the bosses of the technocrats. Football lifers should determine who can block and tackle, but hedge fund managers, CFOs, and corporate lawyers should make the final decisions as to asset management and risk allotment.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Bryce Johnston is the creator of Commitment Index and the co-creator of Expected Contract Value. Bryce earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected] or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
What it did do was to almost always have the As in contention however....with a chance to win a title....if the on field performance is successful.
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The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Congratulations for knowing one bust Ohio State player, quite impressive really. It's becoming quite apparent to me that a lot of people hear fancy words and get scared of the future. I imagine it's also the same people who I get email from that look like this "FW:FW:FW: PROOF that Obama is a MUSLIM TERRORIST!!!!".
Yes, my expectations are lowered because we are literally the worst organization in the NFL. If a group of guys comes in here with this here fancy "analytics" stuff and makes us a respectable team that at least competes for the playoffs, I'd throw them a parade. It's incredible what people expect and what this organization has been.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
And not to mention the guy we just hired went to the World Series as well..
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Yeah well if the fans don't see a beanstalk in a very short time they will be clamoring for their cow back.
WSS
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I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
Boston also had payrolls on par or greater than the Yankees during those World Series. Not exactly the "moneyball" way. More open checkbook than analytics.I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
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True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
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True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
You have to admit there's a huge difference in getting the best players at a certain price point vs having an almost unlimited budget.True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
I'm a huge proponent of using analytics if it's implemented properly and given enough time to work. The real question is how many people have faith Haslam will do just that. I want to believe he will but his track record tells me this will be a monumental cluster fuck.
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Absolutely willing to admit what I think I said...
The other thing about baseball is that the approach has been around long enough that the price of analytics have gone up. More teams using similar models to make decisions in FA and the draft.
The impact on the draft is that fewer steals fall through the cracks to the practitioners.
Impact on FAs is that the rich clubs can outbid the small market/budget teams and still think they are getting a bargain.
It's an open question on just how much of a head start we have over the rest of the NFL. Until three days ago I'd never have suspected there are as many NFL franchises utilizing analyticals to the extent they apparently are... and have been... including us. But whatever the gap may be in 2016 you can be sure it'll only close over time as it has in baseball.
Makes you wonder the role analyticals played in bringing us K'waun or Crow or Hawk or releasing Cam only to "find" Barn...
... or what they said about Bowe...
Now I've made myself wonder whether the #1 reason Farmer is gone is whether he was an analyticals resistor???
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