Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
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Mods,
I think this is different enough to stand on its own for a couple days anyway.
We've (or at least I've) been focusing on Podesta bringing a sabermetric sieve to our scouting process. That was before I came across the following article.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
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Analytics, Technocrats, & the Distinction Between Talent Evaluation and Resource Allocation
Posted on January 6, 2016 by Bryce Johnston
Earlier today the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta away from the New York Mets to assume the newly created role of Chief Strategy Officer. As a key figure in Moneyball the book and the basis for Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball the movie, DePodesta is closely associated with sports analytics. Because of DePodesta’s association with analytics and the fact that his experience as an executive lies in baseball, the reactions to this hire were, unsurprisingly, quite strong.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports: “The Paul DePodesta hire could be revolutionary. We’re about to find out, truly, for better or worse, whether advanced analytics works in NFL.”
- Louis Riddick of ESPN: “There is a place for objective/data driven analysis to co-exist with the largely subjective process of football team building. But it will NEVER replace it. Learn the game. First. The popularity of the sport has made many wish they could objectify the game because they are either unwilling or unable to learn the game.”
- Albert Breer of NFL Network: “I have my doubts about the effectiveness of analytics in football. But maybe I’m like the old Moneyball scout grading guys on their gf’s.”
More importantly, I think the reactions of league observers may be misplaced as a result of conflating the two primary decision-making processes that each front office must continually undertake. The first decision-making process resolves around determining which players are better than other players. This is the talent evaluation process. The talent evaluation process can be performed subjectively (scouting/film study), objectively (analytics) or based on a combination of the two. The second decision-making process resolves around determining which price to pay (in terms of salary cap space and/or draft picks) to acquire the contractual right to the performance of a given player. This is the resource allocation process. The resource allocation process involves executing transactions on the basis of the results of the talent evaluation process. Ideally, each individual in a football operations department should have a clear role supporting one of these two processes, based on the skills and experience of the given individual.
Most NFL General Managers are hired due to their perceived expertise in the talent evaluation process. They are typically “football guys” who have risen through the ranks of scouting departments and have developed a reputation for being able to identify talented players more effectively than their peers. Most, however, do not appear to have any discernable claim to expertise in the resource allocation process. A career spent playing, studying and/or coaching football does not prepare oneself to efficiently allocate $150 million worth of salary cap space and numerous draft picks across dozens of roster spots while competing against 31 opponents under conditions of CBA-enforced scarcity of resources. The two processes require completely different skill sets, but the NFL has historically operated as a technocracy in which scouting technocrats typically perform both roles.
League observers seem to be under the impression that the primary motive for the Browns hiring DePodesta is to convert the organization from employing a subjective talent evaluation process to an objective talent evaluation process. In other words, to cause the organization to bring analytics and scouting onto equal footing. While this may be part of the motivation for the hire, I suspect that the primary motivation was to secure the services of an executive with a claim to expertise related to the resource allocation process. DePodesta would seem to fit this description. The thesis of Moneyball, after all, was that a team can gain a competitive advantage by developing methods to allocate its resources more efficiently than other teams.
If this is the case, DePodesta can make a positive impact on the Browns without making any changes to the talent evaluation process (although I do not doubt that he will make changes). Scouting and film study can continue to reign supreme over quantification of performance and talent. The key difference will be that after hearing the Browns’ scouts explain why think Player X is better than Player Y and how much better they think Player X is than Player Y, DePodesta will have the authority to decide if the price necessary to acquire Player X is worth the incremental cost as compared to the price necessary to acquire Player Y. In my view, one of the primary causes for Chip Kelly’s downfall was that he possessed authority over both the talent evaluation process and the resource allocation process, but seemed to ignore the questions demanded of the resource allocation process and instead favored his technocratic talent evaluation judgments.
DePodesta’s title – Chief Strategy Officer – is telling. If the Browns hired DePodesta to elevate analytics to an even footing with scouting, or even to largely replace scouting with analytics, they could have easily given him a more traditional title such as General Manager or President of Football Operations. These titles would have indicated that he is filling a familiar role, but would perform such role differently. Instead, they gave him a novel title to, I suspect, emphasize that he is performing a new role. As such, I think this move is less about altering the methods of the talent evaluation process and more about elevating the resource allocation process to a position of supremacy within the organization. I predict that if the Browns experience success during DePodesta’s tenure, the result will not be that technocrats lose their talent evaluation jobs to analytically inclined executives, but rather that analytically inclined executives will step into organizational structures as the bosses of the technocrats. Football lifers should determine who can block and tackle, but hedge fund managers, CFOs, and corporate lawyers should make the final decisions as to asset management and risk allotment.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Bryce Johnston is the creator of Commitment Index and the co-creator of Expected Contract Value. Bryce earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected] or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
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Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
What it did do was to almost always have the As in contention however....with a chance to win a title....if the on field performance is successful.
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The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Congratulations for knowing one bust Ohio State player, quite impressive really. It's becoming quite apparent to me that a lot of people hear fancy words and get scared of the future. I imagine it's also the same people who I get email from that look like this "FW:FW:FW: PROOF that Obama is a MUSLIM TERRORIST!!!!".
Yes, my expectations are lowered because we are literally the worst organization in the NFL. If a group of guys comes in here with this here fancy "analytics" stuff and makes us a respectable team that at least competes for the playoffs, I'd throw them a parade. It's incredible what people expect and what this organization has been.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
And not to mention the guy we just hired went to the World Series as well..
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Yeah well if the fans don't see a beanstalk in a very short time they will be clamoring for their cow back.
WSS
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I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
Boston also had payrolls on par or greater than the Yankees during those World Series. Not exactly the "moneyball" way. More open checkbook than analytics.I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
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True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
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True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
You have to admit there's a huge difference in getting the best players at a certain price point vs having an almost unlimited budget.True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
I'm a huge proponent of using analytics if it's implemented properly and given enough time to work. The real question is how many people have faith Haslam will do just that. I want to believe he will but his track record tells me this will be a monumental cluster fuck.
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Absolutely willing to admit what I think I said...
The other thing about baseball is that the approach has been around long enough that the price of analytics have gone up. More teams using similar models to make decisions in FA and the draft.
The impact on the draft is that fewer steals fall through the cracks to the practitioners.
Impact on FAs is that the rich clubs can outbid the small market/budget teams and still think they are getting a bargain.
It's an open question on just how much of a head start we have over the rest of the NFL. Until three days ago I'd never have suspected there are as many NFL franchises utilizing analyticals to the extent they apparently are... and have been... including us. But whatever the gap may be in 2016 you can be sure it'll only close over time as it has in baseball.
Makes you wonder the role analyticals played in bringing us K'waun or Crow or Hawk or releasing Cam only to "find" Barn...
... or what they said about Bowe...
Now I've made myself wonder whether the #1 reason Farmer is gone is whether he was an analyticals resistor???
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If I remember correctly the Patriots did an analytical study on how the ball bounces when punted.
You may very well be right about Farmer. I know of at least one position coach in the league that hates it. One of his arguments to me has been when they come up with an equation that factors in heart/desire & playing through pain let him know. He thinks analytics doesn't show him anything important they don't already know. Yet leaving out information he considers extremely important. I see his argument however I'm still of the opinion it can be an extremely useful tool.
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Yup... plus the ability to isolate performance for quantification is much greater in Baseball then it is in Football. Doesn't make it useless, just potentially less useful... or maybe more likely to be misused.
An example of misuse is the tendency shown here (and elsewhere) to sum PFF OL grades and declare this or that team's OL the best. PFF is analytics of individual contributions... play-by-painstaking-play. Summing them is a misapplication of PFF's work.
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True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
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Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
Bengals vs Steeler playoff game ? Take my word for it, that bloodbath will have nothing to do with analytics. Teams already warned by the League. Do analytics account for just plain, nasty aggressive fearless mo-fo's.
Have to agree with Banner that it's one of a number of useful tools a team needs. It will not by itself change the game.
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Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
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So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
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