Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
-
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
-
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series. People talk up Beane as if the A's won CHAMPIONSHIPS during his time.
What it did do was to almost always have the As in contention however....with a chance to win a title....if the on field performance is successful.
-
The basic take of the writer is that Podesta is not here to set up analytics to pick the better of two players. He is here to set up analytics to determine whether the higher cost of the more expensive option is worth the investment.
Now as the author is a mainstay at overthecap.com he may well have a bias towards this view, but I still found it a worthwhile and interesting read.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Too bad your expectations are now so low.I always crack up when people say stuff like this. You mofos are talking about winning championships when we hardly win four games a year. If this strategy even gets to be playoff contenders I'd give them a key to the city.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Too bad your expectations are now so low.
You're going to end up with 53 Vernon Gholstons.
Congratulations for knowing one bust Ohio State player, quite impressive really. It's becoming quite apparent to me that a lot of people hear fancy words and get scared of the future. I imagine it's also the same people who I get email from that look like this "FW:FW:FW: PROOF that Obama is a MUSLIM TERRORIST!!!!".
Yes, my expectations are lowered because we are literally the worst organization in the NFL. If a group of guys comes in here with this here fancy "analytics" stuff and makes us a respectable team that at least competes for the playoffs, I'd throw them a parade. It's incredible what people expect and what this organization has been.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
And not to mention the guy we just hired went to the World Series as well..
-
Yeah well if the fans don't see a beanstalk in a very short time they will be clamoring for their cow back.
WSS
-
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
Boston also had payrolls on par or greater than the Yankees during those World Series. Not exactly the "moneyball" way. More open checkbook than analytics.I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
-
True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
-
True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
You have to admit there's a huge difference in getting the best players at a certain price point vs having an almost unlimited budget.True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
I'm a huge proponent of using analytics if it's implemented properly and given enough time to work. The real question is how many people have faith Haslam will do just that. I want to believe he will but his track record tells me this will be a monumental cluster fuck.
-
Absolutely willing to admit what I think I said...
The other thing about baseball is that the approach has been around long enough that the price of analytics have gone up. More teams using similar models to make decisions in FA and the draft.
The impact on the draft is that fewer steals fall through the cracks to the practitioners.
Impact on FAs is that the rich clubs can outbid the small market/budget teams and still think they are getting a bargain.
It's an open question on just how much of a head start we have over the rest of the NFL. Until three days ago I'd never have suspected there are as many NFL franchises utilizing analyticals to the extent they apparently are... and have been... including us. But whatever the gap may be in 2016 you can be sure it'll only close over time as it has in baseball.
Makes you wonder the role analyticals played in bringing us K'waun or Crow or Hawk or releasing Cam only to "find" Barn...
... or what they said about Bowe...
Now I've made myself wonder whether the #1 reason Farmer is gone is whether he was an analyticals resistor???
-
If I remember correctly the Patriots did an analytical study on how the ball bounces when punted.
You may very well be right about Farmer. I know of at least one position coach in the league that hates it. One of his arguments to me has been when they come up with an equation that factors in heart/desire & playing through pain let him know. He thinks analytics doesn't show him anything important they don't already know. Yet leaving out information he considers extremely important. I see his argument however I'm still of the opinion it can be an extremely useful tool.
-
Yup... plus the ability to isolate performance for quantification is much greater in Baseball then it is in Football. Doesn't make it useless, just potentially less useful... or maybe more likely to be misused.
An example of misuse is the tendency shown here (and elsewhere) to sum PFF OL grades and declare this or that team's OL the best. PFF is analytics of individual contributions... play-by-painstaking-play. Summing them is a misapplication of PFF's work.
-
True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
-
Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
Bengals vs Steeler playoff game ? Take my word for it, that bloodbath will have nothing to do with analytics. Teams already warned by the League. Do analytics account for just plain, nasty aggressive fearless mo-fo's.
Have to agree with Banner that it's one of a number of useful tools a team needs. It will not by itself change the game.
-
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
-
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
-
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
Precisely. Some people here are going around with their hair on fire thinking that this analytics thing is the be all end all of everything about the future of the team. It certainly is not going to be that from what I understand. It is simply another tool to try to find the best players and the best strategies that may be implemented. Certainly the Browns have done poorly in both talent evaluation and strategy. This may help some. But no, it will not replace good solid football coaching.
And that will be the biggest key: Who they hire as a coach....who they hire as the DOPP. As far as I am concerned they are the more important hires than this CSO. The CSO will only aid and abet the HC and DOPP to do their jobs correctly. He won't run them, he will help them.
Tell me who those guys are going to be. And quit worrying about this.
-
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
I would predict that it would be a tool. I mean I suppose that you could compare say that it could now be used by a woodcarver as a dremel where before he only used a whittling knife or chisel. It is still the skill, experience and direction that the woodcarver brings to the project that is important.
-
Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
WSS
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
But analytics do not produce guarantees, just better odds. And paying players more than they are worth does not increase their performance level.
Remember the scene in the movie where Depodesta and Beane sit down with the A's owner? It was early in a season (maybe 1/3rd of the way through at most) and they were way behind their projected win total?
They convinced the owner (and themselves to some extent) that the sample size was as yet too small to conclude that they should abandon their plan.
Sure enough by the end of the 162-game season the team had exceeded their projected win total.
And then they quickly exited the playoffs where a 5 or 7-game series is again... a small sample size.
The NFL's 16-game season is one of the factors that contribute to the justifiable questioning of applying sabermetrics to Pro football.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Paying them more than they are worth isn't the point. Outbidding your opponents is.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login