What Makes A Playoff Team?
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Playoff rather than superbowl, because a one off can get to the superbowl, but a one off doesn't reflect trends.
OK, we can all say that a great QB, smothering D, elite receivers and a punishing run game leads to the playoffs, and if you can get all of that together in one season, then you deserve it. But looks at the leaders in different categories, where is there a common theme?
Offense
Passing offense - 3 of the top 10 teams in total passing yards are in the playoffs:
1 New Orleans...49702 Arizona...........46163 Pittsburgh.......46034 San Diego.......45915 New England..45876 Atlanta............43797 NY Giants.......43478 Baltimore........42719 Detroit............421210 Jacksonville..4108Passing offense we can fairly say is a combination of QB play and receivers. OL play factors in as well, but I don't think you'll find many people outside of ghoolie that don't care about OL play.Rushing offense - 5 of the teams that rushed for most yards are in the playoffs (plus the Jets who are 10-6):1 Buffalo..........24322 Carolina.......22823 Seattle.........22684 Minnesota....22115 Tampa Bay...21626 Kansas City...20447 St. Louis.......19568 Arizona.........19179 Dallas...........189010 NY Jets......1868Rushing is again a product of a good OL and other smaller factors - respecting the pass, skill player blocking etc, but is generally down to the RB.
With the exception of Arizona, who are in both passing and rushing (seriously, such a good team), teams are generally either in one or the other. So, a playoff team will generally be either a top 10 running game, or a top 10 passing game. You can also basically scratch Houston and Washington, who are in the playoffs by virtue of being in such shitty divisions.
Defense
Total yards per game:
1 Denver Broncos................283.12 Seattle Seahawks.............291.83 Houston Texans...............310.24 New York Jets....................318.65 Arizona Cardinals.............321.76 Carolina Panthers.............322.97 Kansas City Chiefs...........329.38 Baltimore Ravens................337.49 New England Patriots.......339.410 Tampa Bay Buccaneers....340.47 teams from the top 10 are in the playoffs, plus the Jets again.Turnover diff1 Carolina...........202 Kansas City.....143 Cincinnati........114 Arizona..............95 New England....76 Buffalo................6= NY Giants..........6= NY Jets..............6= Seattle..............610 Green Bay.......5= St. Louis............5= Minnesota .......5= Houston...........5And then you have turnover differential, where three of the top five teams are in the championship games (and Denver would probably be there if not for the pick-machine that Manning has become); and nine of the top (extended) 10.So what makes a playoff team? Well, you can basically do it how you like - pass happy, run happy, but you basically must have a solid D, and a good turnover differential.Also, Washington really sucks, comparatively; Green Bay's O is not that great (12th rushing, 25th passing); Denver/Houston's O is not so good but the monster D got them there; Arizona is probably the best team in the NFL; a great QB with no running game/D won't get you there (Rivers/Eli/Brees/Luck).Maybe nobody but me is interested, but I thought I'd share. -
Whats I noticed is that teams that run the ball great have a better shot. Get a competent QB and control the ball. Novel idea. We need to be a running team in the AFC North. Defense will automatically be better because they're on the field less. QBs will automatically be better because theyre routinely in 3rd and 3's instead of 3rd and 8's. Its not rocket science.
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You used total yardage defense as a criteria. What would it be using fewest points? The old bend but don't break. Teams may give up a lot of yards....but not a lot of points.
It would not surprise me if it was like 8-9 of 10 in that category.
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all these playoff teams have great lines. End of discussion. The skill guys get you over deep into the playoffs, but it starts on the lines. This is why it's stupid to reach on a project QB in the draft when your lines are so abysmal.
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Interesting stats... budding analytics...
I think you have to look at where all 10 playoff teams stand, not just count how many are in the Top Ten. And the difference between a category where only three are present and give are present may be hugely revealing.
For example I'll build on your Rushing list. Also will add YPG column as I think it is more relatable.
Rushing offense - 5 of the teams that rushed for most yards are in the playoffs (plus the Jets who are 10-6):
1 Buffalo..........2432.. 152.0
2 Carolina.......2282.. 142.6
3 Seattle..........2268.. 141.8
4 Minnesota....2211.. 138.2
5 Tampa Bay....2162.. 135.1
6 Kansas City..2044.. 127.8
7 St. Louis........1956.. 122.2
8 Arizona.........1917.. 119.8
9 Dallas............1890.. 118.1
10 NY Jets .......1868.. 116.8 <--- so 5 of 10
12 Green Bay...1,850.. 115.6 <--- 6 of 12
15 Houston ..... 1,731.. 108.2
16 Pittsburgh .. 1,724.. 107.8
17 Denver ........ 1,718.. 107.4 <--- 9 of 17
30 New England . 1,404.. 87.8 <--- outlie much?
Clearly NE is a special case. In statistical analysis we would tag their performance and try to assign a "special cause" so that it can be eliminated from the data before it is analyzed. Ideally you want only "common cause" variation in you data.
The secondary cluster in the mid-teens is interesting.
And I'll add a new list: Run D.
If the Offense is worth breaking down, then Why not the Defense?
Run Defense Leaders: 9 of 10 with one outlier...
1 Seattle Seahawks ...... 81.5
2 New York Jets ............. 83.4
3 Denver Broncos ......... 83.6
4 Carolina Panthers ...... 88.4
5 Pittsburgh Steelers .... 91.2
6 Arizona Cardinals ....... 91.2
7 Cincinnati Bengals ..... 92.3
8 Kansas City Chiefs ..... 98.2
9 New England Patriots . 98.8
10 Houston Texans ........ 99.8 <-- 9 of 10!
21 Green Bay Packers .. 119.1 <--- Special Cause?
Looks to me a lot like: stop the run and Pound the rock.
Where have I heard that before? -
Damn Tour-you just proved my case for Bosa for me.
And for Henry too.
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I didn't split total defence in to passing and rushing because, in my mind at least, it's a lot harder to be good at just one and be successful. You've got to be pretty good at both to get anywhere. Also good teams tend to get ahead by a couple of scores and teams stop rushing on them, which would go some way to explain why you see so many playoff teams in that group. On the flip side, you can be a great running team and distinctly average passing the ball and still get in, and vice versa, but you *need* to have a good D.
Using points per game would be another way to go, but too obvious to have any real meaning I think, but just my opinion.
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I didn't split total defence in to passing and rushing because, in my mind at least, it's a lot harder to be good at just one and be successful. You've got to be pretty good at both to get anywhere. Also good teams tend to get ahead by a couple of scores and teams stop rushing on them, which would go some way to explain why you see so many playoff teams in that group. On the flip side, you can be a great running team and distinctly average passing the ball and still get in, and vice versa, but you *need* to have a good D.
Using points per game would be another way to go, but too obvious to have any real meaning I think, but just my opinion.
I didn't split total defence in to passing and rushing because, in my mind at least, it's a lot harder to be good at just one and be successful. You've got to be pretty good at both to get anywhere. Also good teams tend to get ahead by a couple of scores and teams stop rushing on them, which would go some way to explain why you see so many playoff teams in that group. On the flip side, you can be a great running team and distinctly average passing the ball and still get in, and vice versa, but you *need* to have a good D.
Using points per game would be another way to go, but too obvious to have any real meaning I think, but just my opinion.
Well.....again....I think you need to split it another way and give the rankings for points allowed. It may be obvious....but it is also probably THE most critical factor.
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No doubt, Chris...
There is a great deal to the notion that we were really good against the pass a couple years ago in part because we were poor against the run. Similarly if you look at the 2015 top ten against the run, there is a very strong likelihood that those teams played with leads most of the time thus relegating their opponents' run games to the dust bin. But the fact remains that 7 of 10 turned to 9 of 10 once Defense is refined to Run Defense.
Just a different take built upon your initial insights.
On NFL Insiders Bill Polian has been ranking teams throughout the season based on key criteria he developed over time. I forget and (right now) cannot find the complete list of criteria, but it included things like 3rd-down conversion % and red-zone efficiency.
I think you'd find it interesting. If I come across it, I'll post it.
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Probably better than rush yards given up per game would be yards per carry, given what we just said. So...:
1 Denver Broncos 3.32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.43 New York Jets 3.63 Seattle Seahawks 3.65 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.76 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.87 Arizona Cardinals 3.97 Carolina Panthers 3.97 Tennessee Titans 3.910 Atlanta Falcons 410 Baltimore Ravens 410 Miami Dolphins 410 New England Patriots 410 San Francisco 49ers 410 St. Louis Rams 416 Houston Texans 4.116 Kansas City Chiefs 4.1That drops from 9 back to 6 of the top 10(15) plus those Jets (I included Texans and chiefs because they were there). You've also got some distinctly average teams in the mix - Bucs (McCoy factor?), Jags, Titans, Falcons, Ravens Dolphins 49ers and Rams make up the rest, and I don't think we'd say they're teams in the top tier at the moment. -
Third down percentage is a key as well. You get off the field, they don't score points, basically. It also limits the yards you can give up.
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OK, none of the rest of you will do this so I have to: The teams that allowed the fewest points this year are as follows:
1. Seattle
2. Cincinnati
3. Kansas City
4. Denver
5. Minnesota
6. Carolina
7. Houston
8. Arizona
9. NY Jets
10.New England
11. Pittsburgh
12. Green Bay
So, 11 of the 12 teams that allowed the fewest points made the playoff. The Jets should have made the playoffs....and Redskins are the only one not in the Top 12.
You say "sure Captain Obvious". Point is you have to see who does not break.
I suggest that the opposite would not be quite as true: that the teams that scored the most points are the ones that get in the playoffs. Maybe....but not nearly as much as the rate of teams that stop opponents from scoring.
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Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.
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Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.
Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.
In other words, you are trying to overthink it? It is pretty simple really: good defense gets you to the playoffs.
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O and D line, anyone still disagree?
O and D line, anyone still disagree?
Vince Lombardi said: "Its all about blocking and tackling". Who would question him?
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O and D line, anyone still disagree?
O and D line, anyone still disagree?
Not a matter of agreeing or not, it's a matter of what metrics are out there...
What are your OL and DL metrics?
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http://footballscoop.com/news/there-have-been-68-nfl-coaching-changes-in-the-last-decade/
There is a good statistic boys
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
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