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  3. What Makes A Playoff Team?

What Makes A Playoff Team?

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  • Tour2ma Tour2maT In Memoriam Dedicated Conversation Starter Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post One Year In One Month Later Week One Done Very Popular
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    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on last edited by
    #9

    No doubt, Chris...

    There is a great deal to the notion that we were really good against the pass a couple years ago in part because we were poor against the run. Similarly if you look at the 2015 top ten against the run, there is a very strong likelihood that those teams played with leads most of the time thus relegating their opponents' run games to the dust bin. But the fact remains that 7 of 10 turned to 9 of 10 once Defense is refined to Run Defense.

    Just a different take built upon your initial insights.

    On NFL Insiders Bill Polian has been ranking teams throughout the season based on key criteria he developed over time. I forget and (right now) cannot find the complete list of criteria, but it included things like 3rd-down conversion % and red-zone efficiency.

    I think you'd find it interesting. If I come across it, I'll post it.

    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
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    • gftChris gftChrisG
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      gftChrisG gftChris wrote on last edited by
      #10

      Probably better than rush yards given up per game would be yards per carry, given what we just said. So...:

      1 Denver Broncos 3.3
      2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.4
      3 New York Jets 3.6
      3 Seattle Seahawks 3.6
      5 Jacksonville Jaguars 3.7
      6 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.8
      7 Arizona Cardinals 3.9
      7 Carolina Panthers 3.9
      7 Tennessee Titans 3.9
      10 Atlanta Falcons 4
      10 Baltimore Ravens 4
      10 Miami Dolphins 4
      10 New England Patriots 4
      10 San Francisco 49ers 4
      10 St. Louis Rams 4
      16 Houston Texans 4.1
      16 Kansas City Chiefs 4.1
      That drops from 9 back to 6 of the top 10(15) plus those Jets (I included Texans and chiefs because they were there). You've also got some distinctly average teams in the mix - Bucs (McCoy factor?), Jags, Titans, Falcons, Ravens Dolphins 49ers and Rams make up the rest, and I don't think we'd say they're teams in the top tier at the moment.
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      • gftChris gftChrisG
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        gftChrisG gftChris wrote on last edited by
        #11

        Third down percentage is a key as well. You get off the field, they don't score points, basically. It also limits the yards you can give up.

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        • The Gipper The GipperT In Memoriam Very Popular
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          The GipperT The Gipper wrote on last edited by The Gipper
          #12

          OK, none of the rest of you will do this so I have to: The teams that allowed the fewest points this year are as follows:

          1. Seattle

          2. Cincinnati

          3. Kansas City

          4. Denver

          5. Minnesota

          6. Carolina

          7. Houston

          8. Arizona

          9. NY Jets

          10.New England

          11. Pittsburgh

          12. Green Bay

          So, 11 of the 12 teams that allowed the fewest points made the playoff. The Jets should have made the playoffs....and Redskins are the only one not in the Top 12.

          You say "sure Captain Obvious". Point is you have to see who does not break.

          I suggest that the opposite would not be quite as true: that the teams that scored the most points are the ones that get in the playoffs. Maybe....but not nearly as much as the rate of teams that stop opponents from scoring.

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          • gftChris gftChrisG
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            gftChrisG gftChris wrote on last edited by
            #13

            Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.

            The GipperT 1 Reply Last reply
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            • gftChrisG gftChris

              Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.

              The Gipper The GipperT In Memoriam Very Popular
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              The GipperT The Gipper wrote on last edited by
              #14

              @gftchris said:

              Gip, it's about breaking down the causes of that. It's pretty easy to just say "what makes a playoff team? well, score lots of points and don't give up many points" but I was trying to go a level or two beyond that.

              In other words, you are trying to overthink it? It is pretty simple really: good defense gets you to the playoffs.

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              • Clevfan4life C Banned Very Popular
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                C Clevfan4life wrote on last edited by
                #15

                O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                The GipperT Tour2maT 2 Replies Last reply
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                • C Clevfan4life

                  O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                  The Gipper The GipperT In Memoriam Very Popular
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                  The GipperT The Gipper wrote on last edited by
                  #16

                  @clevfan4life said:

                  O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                  Vince Lombardi said: "Its all about blocking and tackling". Who would question him?

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                  • C Clevfan4life

                    O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                    Tour2ma Tour2maT In Memoriam Dedicated Conversation Starter Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post One Year In One Month Later Week One Done Very Popular
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                    Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on last edited by
                    #17

                    @clevfan4life said:

                    O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                    Not a matter of agreeing or not, it's a matter of what metrics are out there...

                    What are your OL and DL metrics?

                    "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
                    C 1 Reply Last reply
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                    • Westside Steve W Dedicated Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post Conversation Starter Week One Done One Year In One Month Later Very Popular
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                      W Westside Steve wrote on last edited by
                      #18

                      http://footballscoop.com/news/there-have-been-68-nfl-coaching-changes-in-the-last-decade/

                      There is a good statistic boys

                      WSS

                      www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons
                      The GipperT 1 Reply Last reply
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                      • Tour2ma Tour2maT In Memoriam Dedicated Conversation Starter Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post One Year In One Month Later Week One Done Very Popular
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                        Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on last edited by
                        #19

                        Not exactly predictive though... is it?

                        "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
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                        • Tour2maT Tour2ma

                          Not exactly predictive though... is it?

                          Westside Steve W Dedicated Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post Conversation Starter Week One Done One Year In One Month Later Very Popular
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                          W Westside Steve wrote on last edited by
                          #20

                          @tour2ma said:

                          Not exactly predictive though... is it?

                          It does make a point.

                          WSS

                          www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons
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                          • Tour2maT Tour2ma

                            @clevfan4life said:

                            O and D line, anyone still disagree?

                            Not a matter of agreeing or not, it's a matter of what metrics are out there...

                            What are your OL and DL metrics?

                            Clevfan4life C Banned Very Popular
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                            C Clevfan4life wrote on last edited by
                            #21

                            @tour2ma said:

                            Not a matter of agreeing or not, it's a matter of what metrics are out there...

                            What are your OL and DL metrics?

                            best talent available either O or D line. If that's Bosa it's Bosa, Tunsil etc, etc. Actually I should also include the LB'ers in the defensive trenches. If there was a LB'er rated higher than Bosa I'd be all for it. We just need to draft big strong athletic kids that can throw people around. Mean fuckers too.

                            Tour2maT 1 Reply Last reply
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                            • W Westside Steve

                              http://footballscoop.com/news/there-have-been-68-nfl-coaching-changes-in-the-last-decade/

                              There is a good statistic boys

                              WSS

                              The Gipper The GipperT In Memoriam Very Popular
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                              The GipperT The Gipper wrote on last edited by
                              #22

                              @westside-steve said:

                              http://footballscoop.com/news/there-have-been-68-nfl-coaching-changes-in-the-last-decade/

                              There is a good statistic boys

                              WSS

                              Well, it is pretty simple: teams that lose a lot fire their coaches. Those that make the playoffs usually do not.

                              Does anyone foresee any of this years playoff coaches being fired? Likely not.

                              W 1 Reply Last reply
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                              • The GipperT The Gipper

                                @westside-steve said:

                                http://footballscoop.com/news/there-have-been-68-nfl-coaching-changes-in-the-last-decade/

                                There is a good statistic boys

                                WSS

                                Well, it is pretty simple: teams that lose a lot fire their coaches. Those that make the playoffs usually do not.

                                Does anyone foresee any of this years playoff coaches being fired? Likely not.

                                Westside Steve W Dedicated Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post Conversation Starter Week One Done One Year In One Month Later Very Popular
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                                W Westside Steve wrote on last edited by Westside Steve
                                #23

                                @the-gipper said:

                                Well, it is pretty simple: teams that lose a lot fire their coaches. Those that make the playoffs usually do not.

                                Does anyone foresee any of this years playoff coaches being fired? Likely not.

                                And 2 and out usually puts you behind the eight ball since no matter who's on the team and no matter what they can do the new regime wants their own guys. And it usually takes a while to replace everybody with your own guy. And your own guys need time to develop.. Then you get fired again.

                                WSS

                                www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons
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                                • C Clevfan4life

                                  @tour2ma said:

                                  Not a matter of agreeing or not, it's a matter of what metrics are out there...

                                  What are your OL and DL metrics?

                                  best talent available either O or D line. If that's Bosa it's Bosa, Tunsil etc, etc. Actually I should also include the LB'ers in the defensive trenches. If there was a LB'er rated higher than Bosa I'd be all for it. We just need to draft big strong athletic kids that can throw people around. Mean fuckers too.

                                  Tour2ma Tour2maT In Memoriam Dedicated Conversation Starter Reacting Well Posting Machine Collaborator First Post One Year In One Month Later Week One Done Very Popular
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                                  Tour2maT Tour2ma wrote on last edited by
                                  #24

                                  @clevfan4life said:

                                  best talent available either O or D line. If that's Bosa it's Bosa, Tunsil etc, etc. Actually I should also include the LB'ers in the defensive trenches. If there was a LB'er rated higher than Bosa I'd be all for it. We just need to draft big strong athletic kids that can throw people around. Mean fuckers too.

                                  So... you're not a metrics guy...

                                  "When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
                                  C 1 Reply Last reply
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                                  • Tour2maT Tour2ma

                                    @clevfan4life said:

                                    best talent available either O or D line. If that's Bosa it's Bosa, Tunsil etc, etc. Actually I should also include the LB'ers in the defensive trenches. If there was a LB'er rated higher than Bosa I'd be all for it. We just need to draft big strong athletic kids that can throw people around. Mean fuckers too.

                                    So... you're not a metrics guy...

                                    Clevfan4life C Banned Very Popular
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                                    C Clevfan4life wrote on last edited by
                                    #25

                                    @tour2ma said:

                                    So... you're not a metrics guy...

                                    not in the slightest. The metrics guys passed on Vontaze. So yeah.

                                    The GipperT 1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • BaconHound B One Year In One Month Later Week One Done
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                                      B BaconHound wrote on last edited by
                                      #26

                                      An elite QB (Brady, Rodgers & Peyton 7 years ago) and enough junk to keep it moving forward, a franchise QB (Ben, Eli, Brees, Wilson, etc.) with very good players around them or just a ton of talent on both sides of the ball to disguise the fact you've got Trent Dilfer at the helm.

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                                      • One Post One PostO
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                                        One PostO One Post wrote on last edited by
                                        #27

                                        Not adding anything just wanted to say awesome thread. This is why I'm here great job.

                                        https://www.facebook.com/Mike-Black-Sunday-Stories-1780988822148720/?ref=bookmarks
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                                        • BrownPile B Collaborator First Post One Year In One Month Later Week One Done
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                                          B BrownPile wrote on last edited by
                                          #28

                                          I honestly don't understand anyone who thinks that line play is irrelevant.

                                          The whole idea of "just get a QB" and it makes no difference who is blocking just mystifies me.

                                          No offense is consistently good without an O line. End of story.

                                          Defense wins football games. Always did. Unless there are significant rule changes, it always will.

                                          And that starts with D line. In a 3-4, you better have stud LBs too.

                                          Build from the lines up and you have a dynasty.

                                          Build defense first and you get to playoffs sooner.

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