Which Qb Goes Where?

bbedward

@hoorta said:

Tour- Steve got riled when I posted as much. "It's a sin if we draft Quinn", Slapped my head when we took the clay pigeon bustin' Wee-done, and almost threw up when Johnny Money sign got called. I got a draft track record as good as those darn chickens. FWIW, I'm not 100% sold on Goff yet- but it's getting close.

And if you really want to throw up- take a look at who we could have had the year after we drafted Quinn with the first round pick we gave Dallas in 2008. Only about 11 Pro Bowlers, and a couple of guys who are still playing in the NFL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NFL_draft

2011 trade down left us with Phil Taylor, Weeden, and Greg Little

We could have had the likes of Julio Jones, JJ Watt, Robert Quinn....

Tacosman

All three of these qbs imo could definately go either way....could be blaine gabbert or could be very good. We won't know until....we know. Anyone who says they know how they will turn out(like we knew how peyton manning would be great or we knew how danny weurful would be terrible) is FOS. But regardless of what their grades from some sites are(and each side is cherry picking...the reality is with all three prospects opinions vary a good bit), I'm not seeing a ton of hype or buzz for these guys.....maybe thats because they aren't 'famous' and neither played at a big school....who knows. What a couple others said about teams being skittish to give up a lot because of the RG3 trade doesn't ring true though- if anything, teams are so desparate for a young franchise qb in the nfl today that they are more likely to make a godfather type offer for even the chance of getting that elusive young franchise qb. Thats how much that is valued in today's nfl. And if any of these three guys do develop a ton of buzz as being a likely franchise qb, then you can bet teams will want to move up into that 1 slot to get them....thats the way young qbs are valued in todays nfl. At other positions the "can't give up too much for one pick" rings true, but not for 22 year old qbs......

jiggins7919

Let's say we draft Goff, and our talent boys think he's worthy of the #2 pick. Why would it be different THIS time?

I think a lot of things could potentially be different. For one, we have Josh McCown. I know, I know...he's not the second coming of Joe Montana, but how nice would it be to have a young QB that DOESN'T have the weight of the world on his shoulders during his first season? McCown appeared to put up with Manziel's crap, and by all accounts, really tried to help the kid. We all know how that worked out, but the point is McCown relishes the role of a "player coach", and seems to enjoy passing on his knowledge to the young guys. He frequently talks about his mentoring role, and I don't think I've ever heard one negative thing about Josh as a teammate. What I read about Goff is that he's a film room junkie and a stand up guy. There's a good chance Goff and McCown could hit it off, and Goff wouldn't be thrown out there with mediocre talent around him and down 20 points a game.

Now, McCown has shown the propensity of getting hurt just about every year. In fact, I don't think he's made it through a 16 game season without missing a few. So even if Josh wins the starting role again, there's a good chance we'll see Goff at some point. But let's say Josh DOES start all 16 games, and we don't need to play Goff just yet. Goff works hard, does his thing, and earns the starting spot in 2017. By that time, our new talent gurus have assembled a better team, and we have some weapons. It's plausible, right? Hope springs eternal. We need a bunch of things to go right, but isn't it about damn time they DID go right?

If McCown is our starting QB in 2016, I think it will be difficult to have our shiny new QB on the bench, but I think Browns fans will be totally cool with it. Not that coaches really care what the fans think, but I don't think you're going to hear a bunch of fans clamoring for Goff if we start out 1-5. Browns fans don't want to "ruin" another QB, and many fans that I know of seem to like McCown as a starter. He wasn't great last year, but it wasn't like he had a killer running game, dominant defense, or playmakers all over the field. I'm curious to see what McCown can do with Josh Gordon (as I'm sure many people are). Gary Barnidge, Travis Benjamin, Josh Gordon, WR Doctson in the second round...and all of the sudden, we have the beginnings of an offense.

Tour2ma

@bbedward said:
Pretty much.

I took a graduated path... The announcement of each trade was a little different...

With Quinn languishing in the super-secret, Green Room it was "Oh no..."

With Wheezy playing with the propeller on his beanie, it was "Oh shit.."

With Johnny... Oh Fuck!

Someday we'll have to discuss which was the best pick of this lot.

@tacosman said:
If we do end up taking Goff #2, he sure as hell won't sit a year. If you are drafted #2 overall, you play....period.

Punctuation should be "question mark?"

True for every position except QB. The plan for nearly every QB taken since Luck and RG3 has been for them to sit, but you hope the new kid takes the job away from your veteran mentor.

Tour2ma · **DraftTek - 1/17/2016**

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:
And, since we're on the subject:

What's odd is Kiper ranks Lynch higher, but his Mock has us taking Goff.

Covering his bets?

BaconHound

Browns draft Kevin Hogan in the 3rd round

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@tour2ma said:

What's odd is Kiper ranks Lynch higher, but his Mock has us taking Goff.

Covering his bets?

That was also from around Christmas, his thoughts may have changed recently. I don't have access to his most recent big board but I assume it can't be drastically different.

I actually like all three of these quarterbacks for different reasons. Goff is the safest bet, but Lynch has intriguing upside and Wentz is like the perfect mix between the two.

bbedward

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

That was also from around Christmas, his thoughts may have changed recently. I don't have access to his most recent big board but I assume it can't be drastically different.

I actually like all three of these quarterbacks for different reasons. Goff is the safest bet, but Lynch has intriguing upside and Wentz is like the perfect mix between the two.

Wentz is concerning because what's the sample size?

He's had arm injuries in high school and broke his throwing wrist this season (out 2 months).

There's other scouting things I can say that are concerning about him, but ultimately I think the senior bowl and combine will be way more important for Wentz than any other QB prospect.

I'm all about overrating the mental attributes and technical attributes rather than the physical ones nowadays, that's also part of the reason I don't see Wentz on that high of a level.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@bbedward said:

Wentz is concerning because what's the sample size?

He's had arm injuries in high school and broke his throwing wrist this season (out 2 months).

There's other scouting things I can say that are concerning about him, but ultimately I think the senior bowl and combine will be way more important for Wentz than any other QB prospect.

I'm all about overrating the mental attributes and technical attributes rather than the physical ones nowadays, that's also part of the reason I don't see Wentz on that high of a level.

That's interesting to me because Wentz is probably the most cerebral of the big three. He has the most experience with pro concepts, the most experience with full field reads, the most experience under center, and is rather technically sound.

Goff is a natural passer and exhibits great control of the offense, but the question remains how well he'll grasp pro concepts (like identifying zone defenses, something that gave him trouble this year) and how well he'll react to moving under center. Those are things that Wentz is already adept at.

Wentz's flaws are more in the level of competition and his lack of elite level arm strength than any mental aspects. And as I've said before, arm strength has never been a detractor for me. Nor has competition level.

bbedward

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

That's interesting to me because Wentz is probably the most cerebral of the big three. He has the most experience with pro concepts, the most experience with full field reads, the most experience under center, and is rather technically sound.

Goff is a natural passer and exhibits great control of the offense, but the question remains how well he'll grasp pro concepts (like identifying zone defenses, something that gave him trouble this year) and how well he'll react to moving under center. Those are things that Wentz is already adept at.

Wentz's flaws are more in the level of competition and his lack of elite level arm strength than any mental aspects. And as I've said before, arm strength has never been a detractor for me. Nor has competition level.

Goff makes full field reads and runs pro routes with 4-5 receivers - he just hasn't run under center.

Wentz as I can see has the injury questions, footwork issues, issues out of the pocket, issues on touch on the intermediate throws, accuracy issues down field.

I make it sound worse than it is - there's a lot of good about him, but Goff is better in all those areas IMO.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@bbedward said:

Goff makes full field reads and runs pro routes with 4-5 receivers - he just hasn't run under center.

Wentz as I can see has the injury questions, footwork issues, issues out of the pocket, issues on touch on the intermediate throws, accuracy issues down field.

I make it sound worse than it is - there's a lot of good about him, but Goff is better in all those areas IMO.

Goff makes full field reads, sure, yet a staggering number of Cal's Bear Raid offensive concepts are catch and fire, three step drop (were he under center) concepts. Granted, the NFL is slowly transitioning toward more of that philosophy, however there are still key duties he hasn't been asked to perform - and that's what keeps him from being a lock #1 overall pick and instead just a possible #1 overall.

Goff is also inherently behind the ball when it comes to footwork because of his lack of playing under center. His footwork may be impeccable as it stands now, but that's like saying he scored a 100% on the front side of the test - there's still another side...whereas Wentz has scored a 90% on both sides.

FWIW, Goff has similar accuracy issues and he starts many games slow.

There's always two sides of the coin - Goff isn't some completely polished, pro-ready prospect nor is Wentz some unheralded small school, perfect prototype. It's just a matter of upside, in my opinion. I believe Wentz has more upside due to his physical tools, yet has a lower floor due to his lack of competition.

bbedward

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Goff makes full field reads, sure, yet a staggering number of Cal's Bear Raid offensive concepts are catch and fire, three step drop (were he under center) concepts. Granted, the NFL is slowly transitioning toward more of that philosophy, however there are still key duties he hasn't been asked to perform - and that's what keeps him from being a lock #1 overall pick and instead just a possible #1 overall.

Goff is also inherently behind the ball when it comes to footwork because of his lack of playing under center. His footwork may be impeccable as it stands now, but that's like saying he scored a 100% on the front side of the test - there's still another side...whereas Wentz has scored a 90% on both sides.

FWIW, Goff has similar accuracy issues and he starts many games slow.

There's always two sides of the coin - Goff isn't some completely polished, pro-ready prospect nor is Wentz some unheralded small school, perfect prototype. It's just a matter of upside, in my opinion. I believe Wentz has more upside due to his physical tools, yet has a lower floor due to his lack of competition.

Right, but I think Goff's learning curve won't be so steep because of the things he does so well. The footwork, awareness, etc.

Wentz is my #2, followed by probably Prescott (I can't get behind Lynch for some reason). But I think at #2, it can't be Wentz it has to be Goff. I just love too much of what I'm seeing from him.

I'm always leery of a guy like Wentz who hasn't really played a lot, he had a broken wrist, and he rose to the first round out of basically nowhere. I think upside is high, but I just can't see him as the best prospect.

I'd happily take him as a consolation prize if he fell to #32, but that won't happen.

Tour2ma

Good convo, guys...

I don't foresee Goff having issues with the drop back. He moves too well for that and he reads D's too well. As for reading zones... I'm seen him go and throw to third options a couple times against what appeared to be zones. And so far I have seen him force two throws total.

Just spent an hour with Lynch adding three games to the list. I think I saw less than a half dozen reads total and they were all on roll-outs when the field was halved. What I did see was a one-read wonder, but one who often studied that read closely... and then drops his eyes and runs. He forced a few throws a game.

Does Memphis send in pre-snap adjustments from the sideline?

Definitely a physical talent, but he does shorten himself with his normal, 1/4-sidearm delivery which often seems like more of a push than a throw. Oddly when he really cranks a throw he shortens himself even more with an exaggerated shoulder drop into a near crouch. But at least in the Memphis horizontal offense he rarely does this as he rarely cranks one. He does have a 65-yd+ arm.

Good straight-ahead speed, but little agility. Relies on a pump fake to throw off closing defenders. He is going to get lit up someday doing this when a disciplined, Pro LB ignores the pump.

Tour2ma

Found link to a partial distribution chart for Lynch 2015 in this BleacherReport article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2606320-2016-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-memphis-quarterback-paxton-lynch

Odd thing is in the games I've broken down so far, I thought he threw a really good deep ball. He did not throw many deep except for one game (Ole Miss, I think), but I would have thought his deep percentage to be much higher.

Mike H

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Goff makes full field reads, sure, yet a staggering number of Cal's Bear Raid offensive concepts are catch and fire, three step drop (were he under center) concepts. Granted, the NFL is slowly transitioning toward more of that philosophy, however there are still key duties he hasn't been asked to perform - and that's what keeps him from being a lock #1 overall pick and instead just a possible #1 overall.

Goff is also inherently behind the ball when it comes to footwork because of his lack of playing under center. His footwork may be impeccable as it stands now, but that's like saying he scored a 100% on the front side of the test - there's still another side...whereas Wentz has scored a 90% on both sides.

FWIW, Goff has similar accuracy issues and he starts many games slow.

There's always two sides of the coin - Goff isn't some completely polished, pro-ready prospect nor is Wentz some unheralded small school, perfect prototype. It's just a matter of upside, in my opinion. I believe Wentz has more upside due to his physical tools, yet has a lower floor due to his lack of competition.

This is spot on. Even with that said, I still think I like Goff's tools and upside better at pick No. 2. Just kidding, I don't know yet.

hoorta

@tour2ma said:

Found link to a partial distribution chart for Lynch 2015 in this BleacherReport article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2606320-2016-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-memphis-quarterback-paxton-lynch

Tour I think someone said it before- but looking at that chart- Lynch is captain dump off short. Lots of screens & swing passes?

Mike H

Here's Goff's for comparison

harley45

Either, Goff, Lynch, or Wentz would be an upgrade. The shortest one is 6'4", Wentz might be the best pro QB.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

@mike-h said:
This is spot on. Even with that said, I still think I like Goff's tools and upside better at pick No. 2. Just kidding, I don't know yet.

I like him better at #2 as well. I'd be ecstatic if we could drop four or so spots and take Wentz at #6. Maybe even #8. However, I'm a little scared he won't make it past Dallas, unless Dallas goes in for RG3 or Manziel.

Hm...I have an idea brewing.

Tim Couch Pulls Out

This is contingent on the premise that Goff goes #1 by way of a trade.

CLE trades #2 + 2016 fourth round pick + Johnny Manziel

To

DAL for #4 + #34 + 2017 second round pick + 2017 fourth round pick

Take away Manziel and calculate point totals, it's still asking for even compensation. Manziel just sweetens the pot for Dallas.

Now Dallas can get what will likely be the top rated DE (not in my eyes) + the QB that Jerry Jones wants.

Cleveland can get Wentz at #4, then BPA ILB/DE/OLB at picks #32 and #34, plus still have two extra picks they accrued.

(The picks probably need working, but the premise is there. We have one, possibly two, things that Dallas wants. Dallas has some picks we could certainly use.)