Camp Goff

[calfoxwc]

and how many passes, how is his wr's on those long throws?

Bobby Bettilyon ‏@BobbyBattlelyon

@PFF_College @PFF that is all well and good but on average, teams averaged two 20+pass plays a game last year

Jake Johnson ‏@JakeJohnsonJO

@PFF_College @PFF if you saw our receiving core on deep routes, you would understand.

http://www.scout.com/nfl/cowboys/forums/1786-the-ranch/14639643-interesting-college-qb-passing-distant-comparison-by-pff

[calfoxwc]

It's just close between these two qbs.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-hq/0ap3000000645532/2016-NFL-HQ-Fan-Mock-Draft-Browns-select-quarterback-Carson-Wentz

[bbedward]

I really don't think it's that close, but that's just me.

[Mike H]

Using stats isn't the best for this type of discussion, but UGH, OK we can do that. Justin is a very good friend of mine and put a ton of work into this, please give it a read (don't just read the charts).

http://draftbreakdown.com/2016-nfl-draft-breaking-down-situational-quarterback-performance/

Wentz has advantages in a few of the categories, not just above Goff, but above the rest of this QB class.

[calfoxwc]

http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php

Position Review: Quarterbacks

Quarterback Class
Early-round talent: B
Mid-round: B+
Late-round: B-
Overall grade: B

Merging the 2016 and 2015 prospects
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Carson Wentz
Jared Goff
Paxton Lynch

Connor Cook
Garrett Grayson
Cardale Jones
Dak Prescott
Christian Hackenberg

Sean Mannion
Jacoby Brissett
Kevin Hogan
Bryce Petty
Brett Hundley

Brandon Allen
Nate Sudfeld
Trevor Siemian
Read more at http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php#BLi3hBg2TzRhSb2R.99

Safest Pick: Carson Wentz, North Dakota State

image: http://www.walterfootball.com/college/NorthDakotaState_logo.gif

Normally, this is a pretty easy choice for me, but it was difficult this year. I think Wentz and Goff are at a similar level of risk. Goff didn't play in a pro-style offense and there are size concerns, while Wentz faces a big jump in competition and has a relative lack of starting experience. I decided to pick Wentz because sources across the league with a variety of teams have said that he is a complete quarterback prospect with a great skill set, off-the-field attributes, and football I.Q.; all while coming from a pro-style system. I think both Wentz and Goff will pan out. I think if either is a bust it will be because they went to a bad team with poor management and the organization itself ruins the playe

Read more at http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php#BLi3hBg2TzRhSb2R.99

Quarterback Rankings by Attributes

Accuracy:
NFL prototype: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

1. Jared Goff
2. Carson Wentz
3. Paxton Lynch
4. Cardale Jones
5. Dak Prescott
6. Jacoby Brissett
7. Christian Hackenberg
8. Connor Cook

Arm Strength:

NFL prototype: Joe Flacco, Ravens

1. Cardale Jones
2. Carson Wentz
3. Paxton Lynch
4. Christian Hackenberg
5. Jared Goff
6. Connor Cook
7. Dak Prescott
8. Jacoby Brissett

Field Vision:
NFL prototype: Tom Brady, Patriots

1. Jared Goff
2. Carson Wentz
3. Connor Cook
4. Christian Hackenberg
5. Cardale Jones
6. Jacoby Brissett
7. Dak Prescott
8. Paxton Lynch

Decision-Making:

NFL prototype: Tom Brady, Patriots

1. Carson Wentz
2. Paxton Lynch
3. Dak Prescott
4. Jared Goff
5. Connor Cook
6. Jacoby Brissett
7. Cardale Jones
8. Christian Hackenberg

Upside:

NFL prototype: Cam Newton, Panthers

1. Cardale Jones
2. Carson Wentz
3. Paxton Lynch
4. Dak Prescott
5. Jared Goff
6. Christian Hackenberg
7. Jacoby Brissett
8. Connor Cook

Mobility:

NFL prototype: Cam Newton, Panthers

1. Cardale Jones
2. Carson Wentz
3. Paxton Lynch
4. Dak Prescott
5. Jared Goff
6. Jacoby Brissett
7. Connor Cook
8. Christian Hackenberg

Intangibles:
NFL prototype: Drew Brees, Saints

1. Carson Wentz
2. Dak Prescott
3. Jared Goff
4. Paxton Lynch
5. Jacoby Brissett
6. Christian Hackenberg
7. Cardale Jones
8. Connor Cook

Read more at http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php#BLi3hBg2TzRhSb2R.99

[calfoxwc]

Looking at that, I don't see how Goff is more talented than Wentz.

[Tour2ma]

@bbedward said:

I had a couple (real) Cubans in Mexico (I know they were real based on my research, almost everybody sells fakes). I honestly can't tell the difference between a Cuban and any other cigar - I smoked one on the beach though which was nice.

I'm sure their reputation has a mystique factor built in due to being hard to get. Kind of like Coors beer as it crept east in the 80's.

That's the 1980's, Mike...

@calfoxwc said:

Looking at that, I don't see how Goff is more talented than Wentz.

Looking at that after watching all their 2015 game tape, I don't agree with those rankings.

[bbedward]

Looking at those alone it'd mean cardale was a top 3 QB in the draft - he's not.

[Tour2ma]

@mike-h said:

Using stats isn't the best for this type of discussion, but UGH, OK we can do that. Justin is a very good friend of mine and put a ton of work into this, please give it a read (don't just read the charts).

http://draftbreakdown.com/2016-nfl-draft-breaking-down-situational-quarterback-performance/

Wentz has advantages in a few of the categories, not just above Goff, but above the rest of this QB class.

Nice article... curious about the scale development and the relative weighting (or lack thereof) for the categories.

Also feel there's a discountable element of collegiate QB's running that's not considered. An element that shows in 3rd Down and Red zone passing stats that won't translate to the NFL... not fully anyway.

[Tour2ma]

@bbedward said:

Looking at those alone it'd mean cardale was a top 3 QB in the draft - he's not.

Gruden (or Jaws?) had an interesting take on Cardale today...

"Cardale Jones is not a pro prospect. He is a pro project."

[Mike H]

@tour2ma said:

Nice article... curious about the scale development and the relative weighting (or lack thereof) for the categories.

Also feel there's a discountable element of collegiate QB's running that's not considered. An element that shows in 3rd Down and Red zone passing stats that won't translate to the NFL... not fully anyway.

Those are passing red zone numbers. If you added in running, it'd make Wentz even higher above the rest in that category

[Flugel]

@tour2ma said:

Gruden (or Jaws?) had an interesting take on Cardale today...

"Cardale Jones is not a pro prospect. He is a pro project."

As a HC, Gruden seemed best at borrowing veteran QBs like Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson rather than drafting/training young inexperienced QBs. GB was good at training young QBs when he was there; but that also included other offensive minded coaches like Andy Reid, Mike Holmgren, and Steve Marriucci.

I've never been a big fan of Jaws especially when he couldn't understand how Joe Thomas continues to make the Pro Bowl. My guess is things really changed the minute he stopped having Dick Vermeil around to translate NFL film for him and give him the week long wtf's in practice. Vermeil prolly liked him because he felt needed but at the expense of burnout from too many hours to the extreme of frequent sleeping at the office. Ryan had the mentality if a QB needed that much attention - he was replaceable. Today, I'd rather listen to Greg Cosell summarize film than the over-caffeinated Jaws.

[Tour2ma]

@mike-h said:

Those are passing red zone numbers. If you added in running, it'd make Wentz even higher above the rest in that category

Understood... poorly stated my point...

As you just confirmed, the analysis was of QB passing effectiveness, not overall effectiveness.

Running QBs create redzone pressure at the collegiate level that does not fully translate to the NFL because they don't run as much at the Pro level. By pulling up LBs and DBs their college running opens up passes that won't be there at the next level. Thus their running inflates their collegiate passing numbers. So I would maintain running QBs redzone passing should be discounted.

How to determine the "discount"? Possibly as simply as game notes of such occurrences... The same could apply to 3rd down situations.

[Tour2ma]

@tour2ma said:

One other Mayock musing from today:

This draft's Goff/ Wentz pair will end up as good or better than 2015's Wilson/ Mariota.

Here's an article with more on this...

Mayock: Goff-Wentz as good, maybe better than Winston-Mariota

By Dan Parr, College Football 24/7 Editor, Published: March 18, 2016 at 02:59 p.m

NFL Media draft expert Mike Mayock dropped a bit of a bombshell in his analysis during NFL Network's coverage of Cal QB Jared Goff's pro day on Friday.

Mayock said during a discussion with his fellow analysts that he considers the consensus top two QBs in this year's draft, Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, to be just as good and maybe even better than the top two QBs in last year's draft, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.

"The statement I'm going to make to you guys, and you can tell me whether you agree or not, is I'm at the point now with both Wentz and Goff where I think they're every bit as good, if not better, than Winston and Mariota from a year ago as prospects," Mayock said.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000645605/article/mayock-goffwentz-as-good-maybe-better-than-winstonmariota

[Mr. Make-Believe]

@tour2ma said:

If I saw them as close, then I would not try to draw out distinctions...

I do not see them as close.

I'm with Tour on this one. I don't believe it's a coin flip. There is clearly a better player here and it's Goff.

[Westside Steve]

So how irate are you guys going to be when Analytics boy decides to pick somebody in the third or fourth round?

WSS

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

@westside-steve said:

So how irate are you guys going to be when Analytics boy decides to pick somebody in the third or fourth round?

WSS

As the second QB taken, after we take one at #2? Not irate whatsoever.

Analytics points to taking a QB earlier rather than later.

More teams have experienced more SUSTAINED success with first round QB's than QB's taken in any of the other six rounds.

The common argument is "oh yeah, look at Tampa, or Baltimore, or New England". New England is really the lone exception, as both Tampa and Baltimore crashed essentially immediately after their Super Bowl runs.

You don't win for long in the NFL without a QB, period. The Browns have taken the top QB exactly once since the return, and they've been the worst team in the NFL over the same span. "Analytics" (read: common sense) points to us taking a QB at #2.

Everyone else using the term "analytics" to say we're not going to spend picks on valuable, highly ranked players in the draft fundamentally doesn't understand what that word means. We're not "moneyballing" the league, we're just not being fucking stupid and trying to bargain basement shop for a QB.

[Westside Steve]

Well maybe you guys have a better handle on what the fuck analytics might possibly mean.

But in case I wasn't clear I'm talking about foregoing a quarterback until the third or fourth round where coach Jackson sees one he could coach up to be the next Andy Dalton

WSS

[hoorta]

@bbedward said:

I had a couple (real) Cubans in Mexico (I know they were real based on my research, almost everybody sells fakes). I honestly can't tell the difference between a Cuban and any other cigar - I smoked one on the beach though which was nice.

Cuban cigars are over rated. All the quality producers hit the road after Castro took over. (If they could)- Dominican Republic. Cuban cigars tend to have a very robust flavor profile- and that's not my cup or tea (or smoke). Give me a nice mild Macanudo. Cigars consist of filler, binder and wrapper. Bet you didn't know the very best cigar wrappers are grown right here in the USA- Connecticut shade tobacco.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

@westside-steve said:

Well maybe you guys have a better handle on what the fuck analytics might possibly mean.

But in case I wasn't clear I'm talking about foregoing a quarterback until the third or fourth round where coach Jackson sees one he could coach up to be the next Andy Dalton

WSS

Andy Dalton was pick #35, so it would make more sense we took a guy around #32 to do that.

That means Cook or Hackenberg. I was high on Cook to start the season but drastically cooled when he didn't show any sort of progression. He's as good today as he was two years ago, in my eyes.